Oscar Countdown: The Award Season Begins

[ArchiveGuy]

Today had several announcements for year-end awards from various critics' groups (the first of which came out a week ago). Here's a tally so far:

Picture
Avatar (YO)
The Hurt Locker (Bo, LA)
Up in the Air (NB, Wa)

Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (Bo, LA, Wa, YO)
Clint Eastwood, Invictus (NB)

Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (LA, YO)
George Clooney, Up in the Air (NB, Wa)
Morgan Freeman, Invictus (NB)
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (Bo)

Actress
Yolande Moreau, Seraphine (LA)
Carey Mulligan, An Education (NB, Wa)
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (Bo, YO)

Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (NB)
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds (Bo, LA, Wa, YO)

Supporting Actress
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (NB)
Mo’Nique, Precious (Bo, LA, Wa, YO)

Screenplay
Inglorious Basterds (Wa, YO)
A Serious Man (Bo, NB)
Up in the Air (LA, NB, Wa)

Cinematography
The Hurt Locker (Bo)
Inglorious Basterds (YO)
The White Ribbon (LA)

Documentary
The Beaches of Agnes (LA)
The Cove (Bo, LA, NB, YO)
Food, Inc. (Wa)

Foreign Film
A Prophet (NB)
Sin Nombre (Wa)
Summer Hours (LA)
The White Ribbon (YO)


NB = National Board of Review, LA = Los Angeles Film Critics, Bo = Boston Film Critics, Wa = Washington DC Film Critics, NYO = New York Online Film Critics

[ArchiveGuy]

Also, the Academy has already issued a shortlist for the contenders in the Visual Effects category. A bake-off will occur, narrowing the field down to around 7, and then finally 3 for the actual ballot. Right now, these are in the running:

Angels & Demons
Avatar
Coraline
Disney’s A Christmas Carol
District 9
G-Force
G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
Terminator Salvation
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
2012
Watchmen
Where the Wild Things Are

[Equipoise]

Oscar Countdown: The Award Season Begins

Let's hope your thread goes better than mine from a couple of weeks ago did.

You didn't mention if you wanted to keep this thread to wins only, or if nominations were ok.


The Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA) announced their nominees for the 15th Annual Critics' Choice Movie Awards:

BEST PICTURE
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up In The Air

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges - "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney - "Up In The Air"
Colin Firth - "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman - "Invictus"
Viggo Mortensen - "The Road"
Jeremy Renner - "The Hurt Locker" (YAY!!)

BEST ACTRESS
Emily Blunt - "The Young Victoria"
Sandra Bullock - "The Blind Side"
Carey Mulligan - "An Education" (YAY!!)
Saoirse Ronan - "The Lovely Bones"
Gabourey Sidibe - "Precious"
Meryl Streep - "Julie & Julia"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon - "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson - "The Messenger"
Christian McKay - "Me And Orson Welles"
Alfred Molina - "An Education"
Stanley Tucci - "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz - "Inglourious Basterds"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard - "Nine"
Vera Farmiga - "Up In The Air"
Anna Kendrick - "Up In The Air"
Mo'Nique - "Precious"
Julianne Moore - "A Single Man"
Samantha Morton - "The Messenger"

BEST DIRECTING
Kathryn Bigelow - "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron - "Avatar"
Lee Daniels - "Precious"
Clint Eastwood - "Invictus"
Jason Reitman - "Up In The Air"
Quentin Tarantino - "Inglourious Basterds"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal - "The Hurt Locker"
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - "A Serious Man"
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - "(500) Days Of Summer"
Bob Peterson, Peter Docter - "Up"
Quentin Tarantino - "Inglourious Basterds"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach - "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell - "District 9"
Geoffrey Fletcher - "Precious"
Tom Ford, David Scearce - "A Single Man"
Nick Hornby - "An Education"
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner - "Up In The Air"

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Jae Head - "The Blind Side"
Bailee Madison - "Brothers"
Max Records - "Where The Wild Things Are"
Saoirse Ronan - "The Lovely Bones"
Kodi Smit-McPhee - "The Road"

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious
Star Trek
Up In The Air

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Barry Ackroyd - "The Hurt Locker"
Dion Beebe - "Nine"
Mauro Fiore - "Avatar"
Andrew Lesnie - "The Lovely Bones"
Robert Richardson - "Inglourious Basterds"

BEST ART DIRECTION
Dan Bishop - "A Single Man"
Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg - "Avatar"
John Myhre, Gordon Sim - "Nine"
Naomi Shohan, George De Titta, Jr. - "The Lovely Bones"
David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds Wasco - "Inglourious Basterds"

BEST EDITING
Dana E. Glauberman - "Up In The Air"
Sally Menke - "Inglourious Basterds"
Bob Murawski, Chris Innis - "The Hurt Locker"
Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron - "Avatar"
Claire Simpson, Wyatt Smith - "Nine"

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Colleen Atwood - "Nine"
Janet Patterson - "Bright Star"
Sandy Powell - "The Young Victoria"
Anna Sheppard - "Inglourious Basterds"
Casey Storm - "Where The Wild Things Are"

BEST MAKEUP
Avatar
District 9
Nine
The Road
Star Trek

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
The Lovely Bones
Star Trek
2012

BEST SOUND
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Nine
Star Trek

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Princess And The Frog
Up

BEST ACTION MOVIE
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek

BEST COMEDY
(500) Days Of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
The Proposal
Zombieland

BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Gifted Hands
Grey Gardens
Into The Storm
Taking Chance

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Broken Embraces
Coco Before Chanel
Red Cliff
Sin Nombre
The White Ribbon

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Anvil
Capitalism: A Love Story
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Michael Jackson's This Is It

BEST SONG
"All Is Love" - Karen O, Nick Zinner - "Where The Wild Things Are"
"Almost There" - Randy Newman - "The Princess And The Frog"
"Cinema Italiano" - Maury Yeston - "Nine"
"(I Want To) Come Home" - Paul McCartney - "Everybody's Fine"
"The Weary Kind" - T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham - "Crazy Heart"

BEST SCORE
Michael Giacchino - "Up"
Marvin Hamlisch - "The Informant!"
Randy Newman - "The Princess and the Frog"
Karen O, Carter Burwell - "Where The Wild Things Are"
Hans Zimmer - "Sherlock Holmes"

I'm starting to get very upset that Ben Foster is being ignored everywhere for his intense performance in The Messenger, but I'm so happy with so many of the other nominations/wins that I can't complain too much. Jeremy Renner and Carey Mulligan getting attention is making me very happy. I hope both go on to get Oscar nominations too. And things are looking very good for Kathryn Bigelow.

The Golden Globe nominations are tomorrow (Tuesday) morning.

[ArchiveGuy]

Thanks, Equipoise. Since the BFCA is usually a pretty accurate bellwether of the Oscar itself (6 of the 7 major winners last year also were honored by the Academy), that info is most welcome.

Two more critics awards: New York Film Critics (NY) and the Southeastern Film Critics (SE):

Picture: The Hurt Locker (NY), Up in the Air (SE)

Director: Bigelow (NY, SE)

Actor: Clooney (NY*, SE)

Actress: Streep (NY, SE)

Supp.Actor: Waltz (NY, SE)

Supp.Actress: Mo'Nique (NY, SE)

Screenplay: (500) Days of Summer (SE), In the Loop (NY), Up in the Air (SE)

Documentary: Food, Inc. (SE), Of Time and the City (NY)

Foreign Film: Summer Hours (NY, SE)

Cinematography: The White Ribbon (NY)


*the NY Critics cited both Up in the Air and Fantastic Mr. Fox for Clooney's award

[Equipoise]

I was so shocked when the Independent Spirit Awards nominations came out and The Hurt Locker was shut out. I felt so bad for Jeremy Renner. I just found out, or rather, was "reminded" that Renner and his co-star Anthony Mackie WERE nominated, last year!

2008-9 Independent Spirit Awards (supposedly for 2008 films)

Best Actor nominees:

Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler (winner)

* Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
* Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
* Sean Penn - Milk
* Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

Best Supporting Actor nominees:

James Franco - Milk (winner)

* Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
* Charlie McDermott - Frozen River
* Jim Myron Ross - Ballast
* Haaz Sleiman - The Visitor

! I know some people complain about people/films being nominated before being released, and usually I roll my eyes at them, but in this case, I agree. It wasn't released in America until June! Thank goodness for some reason it didn't qualify for the Oscars last year.

[Equipoise]

Roger Ebert just Twittered his Best Actor Oscar nom predictions:

Originally Posted by Ebert

I predict 2010's five best actor nominees: Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman, Renner. Bridges wins.

For those following along but not hip to all the players...

Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up In the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

I'd certainly be fine with Ebert's pick for a winner. I haven't seen Crazy Heart yet but it's getting great reviews and is supposed to be one of Bridges's best roles ever. Bridges has been nominated for an Oscar 4 times and has never won. That doesn't mean he's "due" or anything, but if it's a great role, in a very good movie, why not?

[ArchiveGuy]

Originally Posted by Equipoise

I'd certainly be fine with Ebert's pick for a winner. I haven't seen Crazy Heart yet but it's getting great reviews and is supposed to be one of Bridges's best roles ever. Bridges has been nominated for an Oscar 4 times and has never won. That doesn't mean he's "due" or anything, but if it's a great role, in a very good movie, why not?

He may not be "due", but he sure is overdue, and I'd love to see him win*. Between him and Julianne Moore (also 4 nods w/no wins) in A Single Man, this might be their lucky year.

*no, I haven't seen the film yet

[Equipoise]

Have you seen A Single Man? I haven't, yet, but isn't Julianne Moore a supporting character? I'm sure she's great, she always is, but I haven't heard all that much buzz. Not compared to Colin Firth.

[ArchiveGuy]

I haven't seen the film, but she's supposed to be quite good in a supporting role (and given Firth's buzz, a lot of Academy members are going to be seeing the film).

[Equipoise]

True.

So, is anybody besides the two of us excited or interested in this awards season (and by that, I mean, the quality of interesting movies that are being talked about and getting attention, not the "awards" themselves, which is why I love awards season)? At least, we haven't had a too-cool-for-school-I-don't-care threadshitter yet. There is that.

[Equipoise]

This is fun. Sometimes the biggest surprises come from unlikely places.

Indiana Film Critics awards:

Best Film of the Year
Up in the Air
Runner-up: Fantastic Mr. Fox (Yay!)

Best Director
Spike Jonze, Where the Wild Things Are ( Yay!)
Runner-up: Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox ( Yay!)

Best Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Runner-up: Spike Jonze and Dave Eggers, Where the Wild Things Are (Yay!)

Original Vision Award
Where the Wild Things Are (Yay!!)
Runner-up: District 9 (Yay!!)

Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Runner-up: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (Yay!)

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education (Yay!)
Runner-up: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
Runner-up: Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (Yay!)
Runner-up: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones and Julie & Julia

Best Foreign Language Film
Sin Nombre (Yay!)
Runner-up: Welcome

Best Animated Film
Fantastic Mr. Fox (Yay!)
Runner-up: Up

Best Documentary
The Cove
Runner-up: Anvil! The Story of Anvil (Yay!)

I love it when they show the Runners-up. It still would have been a cool list without it, but it's absolutely delightful with it. Maybe I ought to start keeping track of this stuff, like I did 2 years ago.

[Equipoise]

An hour and a half until the Golden Globe nominations. Yes I'm staying up for it. Yes I'm a hopeless awards geek. No, I don't have to work today, but I work nights anyway so I'm used to this.

[ArchiveGuy]

The San Francisco Film Critics chimed in. Some usual suspects, some nice surprises:

Picture/Director: The Hurt Locker/Bigelow
Actor: Colin Firth
Actress: Meryl Streep
Supp.Actor: Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles (I saw this last night, and McKay is uncanny and marvelous as Orson)
Supp.Actress: Mo'Nique
Screenplay: Inglorious Basterds & The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Cinematography: A Serious Man
Documentary: Anvil!
Foreign Film: You, the Living

Plus, the wonderful Sita Sings the Blues got a special citation.

[ArchiveGuy]

Au = Austin Film Critics, DFW = Dallas Fort Worth Film Critics, SD = San Diego Film Critics, To = Toronto Film Critics

Picture: Hunger (To), Hurt Locker (Au), Inglorious Basterds (SD, To), Up in the Air (DFW)
Actor: Nicolas Cage, Bad Lieutenant: PoCNO (To), Clooney (DFW), Firth (Au, SD)
Actress: Melanie Laurent, Inglorious Basterds (Au), Michelle Monaghan, Trucker (SD), Carey Mulligan, An Education (DFW, To)
Supp.Actor: Waltz (Au, DFW, SD, To)
Supp.Actress: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (Au, To), Mo'Nique (DFW), Samantha Morton, The Messenger (SD)
Director: Bigelow (Au, To), Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (DFW), Tarantino (SD)
Screenplay: Fantastic Mr. Fox (SD), Inglorious Basterds (Au, SD, To), Up in the Air (Au, DFW, To)
Cinematography: The Hurt Locker (Au), The Lovely Bones (DFW), The Road (SD)
Foreign Film: Il Divo (SD), Sin Nombre (Au, DFW), The White Ribbon (To)
Documentary: Anvil! (Au), The Cove (DFW, SD, To)

[ArchiveGuy]

Here's a final list of all the tunes eligible for Best Song by the Academy.

And the SAG nominations come out tomorrow.

[Yookeroo]

The Animated Feature category is going to be really great this year:
Up
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Coraline
The Princess and the Frog

[ArchiveGuy]

Originally Posted by Yookeroo

The Animated Feature category is going to be really great this year:
Up
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Coraline
The Princess and the Frog

Because there are 20 films eligible in this category this year, the final nomination slate will consist of 5 films. I think the 4 you listed are fairly certain as nominees, which leaves one slot left--I'm guessing for Ponyo, since Miyazaki is a fave within the branch (the last time there were 5 nominees, he won the Oscar).

[Equipoise]

Here are the Screen Actors Guild nominations:

Actor
JEFF BRIDGES - Crazy Heart
GEORGE CLOONEY - Up In The Air
COLIN FIRTH - A Single Man
MORGAN FREEMAN - Invictus
JEREMY RENNER - The Hurt Locker

Actress
SANDRA BULLOCK - The Blind Side
HELEN MIRREN - The Last Station
CAREY MULLIGAN - An Education (fantastic!)
GABOUREY SIDIBE - Precious
MERYL STREEP - Julie & Julia

Supporting Actor
MATT DAMON - Invictus
WOODY HARRELSON - The Messenger
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - The Last Station
STANLEY TUCCI - The Lovely Bones
CHRISTOPH WALTZ - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress
PENELOPE CRUZ - Nine
VERA FARMIGA - Up In The Air
ANNA KENDRICK - Up In The Air
DIANE KRUGER - Inglourious Basterds
MO'NIQUE - Precious

Ensemble
AN EDUCATION (!!! YAY)
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLORIOUS BASTERDS
NINE
PRECIOUS

That's a pretty awesome Ensemble lineup. Carey Mulligan was expected but An Education for Ensemble?!?! That just upped its profile a hundred fold! Diane Kruger was very unexpected. Jeremy Renner should feel better today after the Golden Globes snub the other day. I guess Ben Foster will have to go without any major nominations this year. Dammit.

[ArchiveGuy]

The absence of big-hitters like Day Lewis and Julianne Moore over relative unknowns like Renner and Kruger speaks a great deal to the apparent large appeal of Hurt and Basterds among the actors (the largest branch within the Academy).

Although it's never completely a 5:5 match across all four acting categories from SAG to Oscar, it's pretty darn close, so I think we're looking at what's very likely to resemble the final slates.

Actor: Day Lewis is still likely to make a strong showing, so I think the final 5 will come from those 6 (spoilers like Stuhlbarg, Mortensen, or Damon for The Informant! seem like really long shots)
Actress: The biggest challengers to these 5 are two actresses (Emily Blunt, Abbie Cornish) in period films (Young Victoria, Bright Star) that will go largely unseen. If there's a 6th that might nudge in, it may be Cotillard from Nine.
Supporting Actor: This seems like a very solid grouping (though some argue Plummer's in the wrong category), but there are some potential spoilers: Alfred Molina (Education), Anthony Mackie (Hurt Locker), Christian McKay (Me & Orson Welles) for starters. All are low-buzz however.
Supporting Actress: I really have a hard time seeing Kruger make the final cut, so I think Moore is back in, though don't count out a few other Nine ladies, or maybe Maggie Gyllenhaal from Crazy Heart.

[Equipoise]

It seems like the Academy pulls at least one WTF, where'd that come from? out of their hats, and maybe it'll be Ben Foster. Ok, I know, slap me, but damn, he's great in The Messenger, and it's terrible how he's being ignored left and right, while Woody Harrelson, who absolutely deserves every accolade, is getting lots of accolades. I don't know who he'd replace though anyway. Freeman would be my choice, but that'll never happen. In the end, I don't care who gets nominated as long as Jeremy Renner does, so as long as he's safe, and that's no longer a sure thing since the shock of the non-Globe nom, I'm happy. I was always only passionate about Jeremy Renner and Carey Mulligan, so the rest are just nice icing.

[Bob Ducca]

I'm really surprised Up in the Air didn't get an ensemble nod from the SAG. Three individual acting awards would earn one, I'd think (not to mention the supporting roles by JK Simmons, and the actresses who played his sisters... Oh, and Danny McBride was actually pretty good as well.)

[Equipoise]

Originally Posted by HelloNinja

I'm really surprised Up in the Air didn't get an ensemble nod from the SAG. Three individual acting awards would earn one, I'd think (not to mention the supporting roles by JK Simmons, and the actresses who played his sisters... Oh, and Danny McBride was actually pretty good as well.)

I agree, that was a shock. I guess the voters figured that Up In The Air was getting and would be getting a lot of attention elsewhere, and voted for a tiny movie that most people hadn't paid much attention to, other than Carey Mulligan's performance. I'm glad because the other actors in An Education will now get some sort of recognition. There's Peter Sarsgaard, Alfred Molina, Olivia Williams, Emma Thompson, Cara Seymour, Rosamund Pike, Dominic Cooper and Sally Hawkins, and it's good for them, this might be the only props any of them get.

[ArchiveGuy]

Det = Detroit Film Critics, LV = Las Vegas Film Critics, Ut = Utah Film Critics

Picture: Hurt Locker (LV), Up (Det), Up in the Air (Ut)
Director: Bigelow (LV), Pete Docter, Up (Det), Reitman (Ut)
Actor: Firth (Det), Viggo Mortensen, The Road (Ut), Renner (LV)
Actress: Mulligan (Ut), Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (Det, LV)
Supp.Actor: Christiam McKay, Me & Orson Welles (Ut), Waltz (Det, LV)
Supp.Actress: Mo'Nique (Det, LV, Ut)
Screenplay: Fantastic Mr. Fox (Ut), 500 Days of Summer (LV)
Foreign Film: Red Cliff (LV), Thirst (Ut)
Documentary: Anvil! (LV), The Cove (Ut)

[ArchiveGuy]

Ch = Chicago Film Critics, Fl = Florida Film Critics, Ph = Phoenix Film Critics, StL = St. Louis Film Critics

Picture: The Hurt Locker (Ch), Inglorious Basterds (Ph), Up in the Air (Fl, StL)
Director: Bigelow (Ch, StL), Reitman (Fl), Tarantino (Ph)
Actor: Clooney (Fl, Ph, StL), Jeremy Renner The Hurt Locker (Ch)
Actress: Mulligan (Ch, StL), Gabourey Sidibe Precious (Fl), Streep (Ph)
Supp.Actor: Waltz (Ch, Fl, Ph, StL)
Supp.Actress: Mo'Nique (Ch, Fl, Ph, StL)
Screenplay: 500 Days of Summer (Fl, StL), The Hurt Locker (Ch), Up (Ph), Up in the Air (Ch, Ph)
Cinematography: Avatar (Fl, Ph), The Hurt Locker (Ch), Nine (StL)
Foreign Film: Broken Embraces (Ph), Red Cliff (StL), Sin Nombre (Fl), The White Ribbon (Ch)
Documentary: Anvil! (Ch), Capitalism: A Love Story (Ph, StL), The Cove (Fl)

plus the Golden Satellite winners (divided into Drama and Comedy/Muscial)

Picture: The Hurt Locker (D), Nine (CM)
Director: Bigelow
Actor: Renner (D), Michael Stuhlbarg A Serious Man (CM)
Actress: Shohrey Aghdashloo The Stoning of Soraya M. (D), Streep (CM)
Supp.Actor: Waltz
Supp.Actress: Mo'Nique
Screenplay 500 Days of Summer, Precious
Cinematography: Nine
Foreign Film: Broken Embraces, The Maid
Documentary: Every Little Step

[Equipoise]

After seeing Crazy Heart last night, I'm pretty convinced that the Academy voters will award Jeff Bridges Best Actor. He's so well-loved in the business, this is a great role for him, and there's no other frontrunner for Best Actor this year, like some years (Forest Whitacre's win was a foregone conclusion months before the Oscars). Bridges is (probably) going to be up against his fellow SAG nominees Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker, George Clooney in Up In The Air, Morgan Freeman in Invictus and someone else, I don't know who. Maybe Colin Firth for A Single Man (which I haven't seen yet, because it's playing in my 2nd least-favorite theater in Chicago, but I intend to hold my nose and go there just so I can see that movie). I agree with you ArchiveGuy that those other actors (Viggo, Matt) are long-shots. If Nine had been a better movie Daniel Day Lewis might be in the mix. He was great, but the movie was not.

The nomination will be Jeremy Renner's reward. Clooney was great as always, but he's still having to prove himself for some reason. Morgan Freeman was, well, Morgan Freeman with an accent, and he didn't have all that much to do except look noble. Colin I'm sure is quite good, but Firth over Bridges? No way. If it were Day Lewis he won two years ago for a brilliant, classic movie, a performance for the ages in a movie for the ages. He's not going to win again for a pretty but mediocre movie.

I think Oscar pool people can put some serious money down on Jeff Bridges. The critics aren't choosing him and maybe SAG and the Golden Globes won't either, but Academy voters will.

[Bob Ducca]

I just saw An Education last night and thought it was fantastic. All of the acting award buzz for Carey Mulligan is well-deserved. Also think Alfred Molina is likely to get a supporting nod. Hope Nick Hornby gets a lot of attention for his adaption as well.

Also saw Nine over the weekend and enjoyed it. Not much plot but it's a fun enough movie. I could see Penelope Cruz getting nominated, though I much more enjoyed Marion Cotillard's performance.

[Equipoise]

Glad you saw and liked An Education! It's so small and obscure that I don't blame anyone for wondering who the hell this Carey Mulligan person is, but I hope the awards buzz will get more people to see the film, if not at the theater, then on DVD. That's exactly why I love awards season, because it does bring attention to people/films that need and deserve it. I don't know if Alfred Molina will get a supporting nomination, but it wouldn't surprise me. I think Peter Sarsgaard deserves credit too. I can't go into why without spoiling the film, but you understand.

I agree with you about Marion Cotillard.

[Tangent]

Originally Posted by Equipoise

Glad you saw and liked An Education! It's so small and obscure that I don't blame anyone for wondering who the hell this Carey Mulligan person is, but I hope the awards buzz will get more people to see the film, if not at the theater, then on DVD.

I am definitely going to seek this movie out, mainly because of Carey Mulligan--but the rest of the cast looks great, too! Mulligan played "Sally Sparrow" in the Doctor Who episode Blink from a couple of years ago. It's one of the most popular of the new-Who episodes and it's unusual in that the entire episode follows the Sally Sparrow character while The Doctor--though still a key figure in the story--is seen relatively little.

[Equipoise]

Oooh, I have to find and watch that! She has a bunch of projects coming up so we'll be seeing a lot more of her.

[Moonchild]

Originally Posted by Yookeroo

The Animated Feature category is going to be really great this year:
Up
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Coraline
The Princess and the Frog

I thought Ponyo should be included, but it apparently opened in 2008 in foreign theatres and therefore doesn't qualify for 2009, but I don't get why it wasn't nominated last year then (a little help here, someone?).

I won't predict it but I could see it happening: Up will be the only animated movie to get nominated for Best Picture but still will not win Best Animated Feature. (I think Mr. Fox will, although I haven't yet seen Princess & the Frog.)

[Equipoise]

I'd love to see Mr. Fox win, but I think Up will.

I saw A Simple Man and A Serious Man (for the 2nd time) today, and now I'm really torn about that 5th spot (assuming Bridges, Clooney, Freeman and Renner are locks). Colin Firth deserves it, but Man, so does Michael Stuhlbarg. What a terrific day at the movies! I'll (probably) be very happy with whoever gets that 5th spot, even if it's Tobey Maguire. As long as Renner gets in, I don't care.

[Equipoise]

Originally Posted by Equipoise

I saw A Simple Man and A Serious Man

A SINGLE MAN and A Serious Man.

[Moonchild]

I could totally see Mr. Fox winning Best Animated Feature. Call it the "Michael Jordan Corollary" where voters get tired of giving, in that case, the MVP to the same guy every year (hence why Karl Malone & Charles Barkley won it in years Jordan should have). Mr. Fox is an underdog that voters could get behind. And this is not to say Up isn't worthy of yet another Pixar win or that Mr. Fox is or isn't. Each has some small warts, but I say it's a pick-'em.

[RickJay]

Originally Posted by Equipoise

The nomination will be Jeremy Renner's reward. Clooney was great as always, but he's still having to prove himself for some reason.

George Clooney has already won an Oscar, so who's insisting he prove anything?

[Equipoise]

Originally Posted by Tangent

I am definitely going to seek this movie out, mainly because of Carey Mulligan--but the rest of the cast looks great, too! Mulligan played "Sally Sparrow" in the Doctor Who episode Blink from a couple of years ago. It's one of the most popular of the new-Who episodes and it's unusual in that the entire episode follows the Sally Sparrow character while The Doctor--though still a key figure in the story--is seen relatively little.

I just saw this tonight and wish I'd seen it 2 years ago. What a fantastic episode, and Carey is to-die-for cute. Thanks for mentioning it so I could get my husband to find and show it to me.

Originally Posted by RickJay

George Clooney has already won an Oscar, so who's insisting he prove anything?

It's a Supporting Oscar, not a Lead. A good sign, but he has a ways to go. He's loved, a good actor, a good human being, a good citizen of the world, and deserves praise in all ways, but he's not going to win over Jeff Bridges, who's been around much longer and has worked with simply everybody, and has been nominated 4 times before, and has a role that's worthy of a Oscar. Not that the others weren't, but his only other Leading nomination was for Starman, which, while wonderful, is somewhat lightweight. His other nominations were Supporting for The Contender, Thunderbolt and Lightfoot, and The Last Picture Show. I wish he'd been nominated for Fearless, The Fisher King and The Big Lebowski.

I'd be happy if George won. I'd be thrilled if Jeremy Renner won. Still, I think Jeff will win and I will dance with joy.

[Bob Ducca]

Just wathced PRECIOUS over the weekend and thought it was a great film. Depressing as all get out, but also surprising in some of the more lighthearted fantasy sequences, which I wasn't expecting going into the film.

The performances, all of them, were remarkable. Mo'Nique is a lock for the Supporting Actress win, and I can't think of someone who has done a better job as a supporting actress in the last decade. She's insanely good.

Gabby Sidibe was also quite good and I hope to see her nominated for Best Actress (though I'm hoping Carey Mulligan wins). At first I thought she was just playing a version of herself w/o any real acting going on - but then it switches to the fantasy sequences and you see her absolutely shine w/ personality.

If it weren't for Mo'Nique, I'd think that Paula Patton might have had a good shot at an Oscar nod for her role as the "ABC Teacher." Also good were Mariah Carey, Lenny Kravitz, and Sherri Shepherd.

[ArchiveGuy]

Originally Posted by Equipoise

It's a Supporting Oscar, not a Lead. A good sign, but he has a ways to go. He's loved, a good actor, a good human being, a good citizen of the world, and deserves praise in all ways, but he's not going to win over Jeff Bridges, who's been around much longer and has worked with simply everybody, and has been nominated 4 times before, and has a role that's worthy of a Oscar. Not that the others weren't, but his only other Leading nomination was for Starman, which, while wonderful, is somewhat lightweight. His other nominations were Supporting for The Contender, Thunderbolt and Lightfoot, and The Last Picture Show. I wish he'd been nominated for Fearless, The Fisher King and The Big Lebowski.

I'd be happy if George won. I'd be thrilled if Jeremy Renner won. Still, I think Jeff will win and I will dance with joy.

Of all the active overduers in the business, I think Bridges is the most overduest. You look at the list of people who've been nominated in films he wasn't (Robin Williams, Rosie Perez, Michelle Pfeiffer, Martin Landau, Susan Tyrell, Jane Fonda, Robert Loggia) and all you can think is: "Wait a minute, he was just as good, if not better, then they were!" He's one of our finest actors but hasn't had too many hits (and usually takes less flashy roles) so has been a long overlooked diamond that everyone's taken for granted for so long. I haven't seen Crazy Heart yet, but from everything I've heard, I'm really excited about the film and his prospects. He's got a reputation for being such a nice, modest, self-effacing guy, I really hope it works out for him.

[Equipoise]

I think it will. We'll dance for joy together!

[Equipoise]

Originally Posted by HelloNinja

Gabby Sidibe was also quite good and I hope to see her nominated for Best Actress (though I'm hoping Carey Mulligan wins).

I'm sure they'll both be nominated and I'm with you on Carey Mulligan, but I don't think either will win. I don't have a guess as to who will. It may be Meryl's year (finally, she's now lost more times than any other actress) but it's a hard one. There's no frontrunner.

I would hope that Mo'Nique is a lock. Hard to tell, but I don't think anyone else even comes close. She's not campaigning, which some say is a mistake. I think it's kind of refreshing.

[Equipoise]

The Producers Guild nominees. Like AMPAS, they went with 10 nominees this year instead of the usual 5. DISTRICT 9!! An Education! 9!! Basterds!! They're all good though. Winners will be announced the 24th.

AVATAR
Producers: James Cameron, Jon Landau

DISTRICT 9
Producers: Carolynne Cunningham, Peter Jackson

AN EDUCATION
Producers: Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey

THE HURT LOCKER
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Producer: Lawrence Bender

INVICTUS
Producers: Clint Eastwood, Rob Lorenz, Lori McCreary , Mace Neufeld

PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL PUSH BY SAPPHIRE
Producers: Lee Daniels, Gary Magness, Sarah Siegel-Magness

STAR TREK
Producers: J.J. Abrams, Damon Lindelof

UP
Producer: Jonas Rivera

UP IN THE AIR
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.



PGA Producer of the Year Award in Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:

9
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.

CORALINE
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.

FANTASTIC MR. FOX
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.

THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
Producer: Peter Del Vecho

UP
Producer: Jonas Rivera


PGA Producer of the Year Award in Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures:

BURMA VJ
Producer: Lise Lense-Moller

The COVE
Producers: Paula DuPre Pesman, Fisher Stevens

SERGIO
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.

SOUNDTRACK FOR A REVOLUTION
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.

=============

Only 4 Documentary nominees for some reason. Odd. I've seen all the regular and animated. I haven't seen any of those Documentaries. The only one I've even heard of is The Cove.

Next up, the Directors Guild nominees on Thursday.

[Equipoise]

Biggest snubs by the Producers: Nine and The Blind Side. I'm amazed that 9 got in over Ponyo and Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs.

Edit to add, no The Lovely Bones is also a big snub.

The Producers nominees never correspond with the AMPAS nomination exactly. At Awards Daily, a poster noted some films that were nominated by the Producers but snubbed by the Academy voters:

Let’s look at a list of PGA surprises that were eventually snubbed by the Oscars

2008 – The Dark Knight
2007 – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2006 – Dreamgirls
2005 – Walk the Line
2004 – The Incredibles (so Up isn’t the first animated PGA best film nominee…)
2003 – The Last Samurai AND Cold Mountain (6 nominees this year)
2002 – Adaptation, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Road to Perdition (6 nominees…the most recent, inaccurate list compared to Oscars)
2001 – Shrek, Harry Potter 1
2000 – Almost Famous, Billy Elliot
1999 – Being John Malkovich, The Hurricane
1998 – Waking Ned, Gods and Monsters
1997 – Amistad

**since the awards got competitive in 1998 (honoring films from 1997), the list has always gotten 1 or 2 wrong each year

My prediction, but I'm so bad at predictions, is that District 9 and/or Star Trek are out, and The Blind Side and but probably not or Nine is in. I'd love to see AMPAS pull out some big surprises, such as The Messenger and/or [hopeless wishful thinking]Away We Go[/hopeless wishful thinking].

The Academy Award nominations are out Feb. 2.

[Moonchild]

Originally Posted by Moonchild

I thought Ponyo should be included, but it apparently opened in 2008 in foreign theatres and therefore doesn't qualify for 2009, but I don't get why it wasn't nominated last year then (a little help here, someone?).

I won't predict it but I could see it happening: Up will be the only animated movie to get nominated for Best Picture but still will not win Best Animated Feature. (I think Mr. Fox will, although I haven't yet seen Princess & the Frog.)

Turns out Ponyo is eligible, but this year there will be five films nominated, not the usual three. Whenever more than 16 films are eligible, the Oscar field is expanded to five.

The frontrunners as I see it (in this order):

Up
Princess and the Frog
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
Coraline

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
A Town Called Panic (a critics' darling which I haven't seen)
Monsters vs. Aliens

[Moonchild]

Originally Posted by Equipoise

My prediction, but I'm so bad at predictions, is that District 9 and/or Star Trek are out, and The Blind Side and but probably not or Nine is in.

If Distict 9 doesn't get nominated in a field of 10 that to me is just a huge mis-step. Of the movies I've seen, District 9 is by far the most visceral and compelling (although I gather a weak sister to Hurt Locker).

[suranyi]

Originally Posted by Equipoise

I'm sure they'll both be nominated and I'm with you on Carey Mulligan, but I don't think either will win. I don't have a guess as to who will. It may be Meryl's year (finally, she's now lost more times than any other actress) but it's a hard one. There's no frontrunner.

I would hope that Mo'Nique is a lock. Hard to tell, but I don't think anyone else even comes close. She's not campaigning, which some say is a mistake. I think it's kind of refreshing.

Don't forget, Meryl did already win one many years ago for Sophie's Choice.

[ArchiveGuy]

Originally Posted by suranyi

Don't forget, Meryl did already win one many years ago for Sophie's Choice.

She's actually won 2 (a supporting for Kramer vs Kramer), but that was over a quarter century ago, so I'm sure most of the Academy is aware of how big of a sport she's been losing 11 consecutive times.

If anything, Streep may have an advantage in that, in addition to her longevity and dry spell (victory-wise), she also is the only real contender in any category this year who plays a real person, and for the last 11 years, at least one person has won an acting award for portraying a real historical figure. She may very well continue that streak.

[Equipoise]

Originally Posted by suranyi

Don't forget, Meryl did already win one many years ago for Sophie's Choice.

I knew that she'd won 2, but it'd been so long ago, and she often jokes about being the losingest acting nominee in history. ArchiveGuy's right, she's such a great sport about it.

And she really was wonderful as Julia Child, but I still wonder if she should be in Supporting. I take it I'm the only one. As much as I love Amy Adams, I wish the whole movie had been about Julia.

The Scripters don't have anything to do with the Oscars (actually, the Guilds are the only Oscar-watching awards that matter) but here are the nominees. To explain a bit about what the Scripters are:

The Scripters have traditionally honored the author and screenwriter of the best film adaptation of a book or short story. Last year the "Iron Man" screenwriters were nominated when material based on comic books was allowed into the competition.

This year, the eligibility was expanded once again, this time to include scripts based on plays and screenplays

.

Originally Posted by NOMINEES

"District 9," written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, is based on a short film by Blomkamp.

"Crazy Heart," written by Scott Cooper based on a book by Thomas Cobb

"An Education," penned by Nick Hornby and based on a memoir by Lynn Barber

"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire," penned by Geoffrey Fletcher and authored by Sapphire

"Up in the Air," with Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner adapting the book by Walter Kirn.

[ArchiveGuy]

Glad to see District 9 there but sorry they didn't have room for Wes Anderson. I really hope both get extra attention outside of their obvious categories.

[ArchiveGuy]

Originally Posted by ArchiveGuy

Also, the Academy has already issued a shortlist for the contenders in the Visual Effects category. A bake-off will occur, narrowing the field down to around 7, and then finally 3 for the actual ballot. Right now, these are in the running:

Angels & Demons
Avatar
Coraline
Disney’s A Christmas Carol
District 9
G-Force
G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
Terminator Salvation
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
2012
Watchmen
Where the Wild Things Are

Now the field has been narrowed down to seven (indicated by bold and blue). A few out in the cold were obvious longshots but I thought Watchmen might have a reasonable chance.

Avatar's a lock and odds are good for Trek, too, but I really hope District can squeeze in (since the Academy has a very mixed record in nominating franchise sequels in this category).

[Equipoise]

I predict Avatar, Star Trek and 2012. Avatar for the win. A District 9 nomination would be nice considering how much they did on such a tiny budget, but I wouldn't bet money on it.


The Writers Guild of America (WGA) nominations come out next Monday, and there will be BIG surprises. Turns out that several films that we might expect to be nominated aren't eligible.

Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino is not a member of WGA)
The Road (Joe Penhall not a member of WGA)
A Single Man (Tom Ford & David Scearce not members of WGA)
An Education (Nick Hornby not a member of his local WGA Great Britain)
District 9 (Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell not members of WGA)

I'm confused as to the reasons, but these aren't eligible either:
In The Loop
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Up

According to Kris Tapley at In Contention,

You don’t HAVE to be a member to get nominated, mind you, but, again, your film has to be written under the guild’s agreement (461 pages I don’t feel like flipping through, so I’ll take Pond at his journalistic word).

[ArchiveGuy]

The DGA nominations came out:

Bigelow, Cameron, Tarantino, Reitman, and Lee Daniels (Precious).

Bigelow is the 7th woman to be nominated in this category, and Daniels is the first African-American.