6/08 Primary Tuesday Prediction Thread

[CyclopticXander]

Well 12 more states go to the polls today in an election year full of surprises. Now's a good time to put in any of your last minute predictions as the polls close.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38238.html Here's a good rundown at the most attention grabbing contests.

As for me, I'm predicting Bill Halter will take the biggest prize of the night, and the lion's share of the media coverage going into Wednesday. Also Nikki Haley will get close to the 50% needed for a runoff, but come just shy and end up in a rematch with Gresham Barrett in a few weeks.

[jayjay]

I'm also predicting Halter. I have no opinion on the SC goobernatorial race...my blip of sympathy for Haley over the "raghead" comment has faded (the Palin-taint was too much to overcome), so I don't really give much of a damn about it. Same with most of the other races (although it will be fun to track whether Chickenlady or Ms Teabag 2010 is going up against Reid in November).

[The Understander]

Predictions, I have none. Just hopes that Bill Halter gets the duke over Blanche Lieberman Lincoln in AR and that some how, some way, Carly Fiorina goes down.

[Squink]

Originally Posted by jayjay

I'm also predicting Halter.

Nah, Halter's going to get screwed by polling station shenanigans:

The battleground? Garland County, a populous county that sits 55 miles from Little Rock.
It was the most heavily populated county that Halter won in the May 18 primary. On that day, the county had 41 polling places open, but for Tuesday's runoff, there will only open two in order to save money.
Obviously, that plan does not set well with Halter.

Not that there's anything wrong with party insiders fixing the vote.
Oh, wait...

[Marley23]

I think Carly Fiorina is going to get the GOP Senate nomination in California. I know that's a pretty safe prediction based on the polls. I just wanted to go on record as saying it because I actually had a dream about that race last night. I'd read exactly one article about the race and I thought it was an odd topic for a dream.

[Captain Amazing]

Also, in California, I think Meg Whitman is going to get the gubernatorial nomination. Also not really a very risky position, given the polls, but at least the information didn't come to me in a dream.

Also, fo the Democrats, it will be interesting to see if Jane Harman can hold onto her seat. She probably will, but...

[Chronos]

And I'm going to go out on a limb and say that absolutely nothing of interest will happen here in Montana.

[Stuffy]

I predict that I'm going to laugh my ass off if Orly Taitz wins the the nom for SOS in California.

[L. G. Butts, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by Marley23

I think Carly Fiorina is going to get the GOP Senate nomination in California. I know that's a pretty safe prediction based on the polls. I just wanted to go on record as saying it because I actually had a dream about that race last night. I'd read exactly one article about the race and I thought it was an odd topic for a dream.

I was just reading about Carly and her run for the senate last night. And I quote:

I watched as the Lamb opened the first of the seven seals. Then I heard one of the seven living creatures say in a voice like thunder, "Come!" I looked, and there before me was a white horse! Its rider held a bow, and he was given a crown, and he rode out as a conqueror bent on Conquest.

Can you tell I am an ex-HP (Agilent) employee?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Stuffy

I predict that I'm going to laugh my ass off if Orly Taitz wins the the nom for SOS in California.

I didn't know she was running, but just this is laugh-my-ass-off material:

In March of 2010, Taitz successfully qualified to run for the office of California Secretary of State.[35] At the same time, she unsuccessfully challenged the eligibility of her Republican Party primary opponent, former NFL player Damon Dunn, claiming that he is pretending to be a Republican.[36] Dunn had registered as a Democrat in the state of Florida in 1999, but that registration had lapsed before he filed for the Republican primary.[37][38]

On May 12, 2010, Barnett (named plaintiff from Taitz's lawsuit Barnett v. Obama) filed a lawsuit in Sacramento County Superior Court alleging that Dunn is not eligible to run for Secretary of State.[39]

[jayjay]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

I didn't know she was running, but just this is laugh-my-ass-off material:

I'm detecting a pattern here...

[Squink]

Halter Complains It Was Hard to Vote in Garland Co., Ark.

Natasha Naragon, a spokeswoman for the Arkansas Secretary of State, said Garland County election officials failed to notify voters of the reduced number of polling stations, as required by state law.

Then again, Halter's now up 51-49 with 59.5% counted.
The forces of evil may yet be thwarted tonight.

[davidm]

Originally Posted by Stuffy

I predict that I'm going to laugh my ass off if Orly Taitz wins the the nom for SOS in California.

Chris Matthews (MSNBC) just said that it looks like she's won. I didn't see the numbers so I can't say if he's right or not.

If she does win the primary, how the hell can the Republican Party support her in the general election without looking like loons? But how can they not support their party's candidate?

[Squink]

Looks like Politico had the numbers reversed when I checked.
Now it's Lincoln 51, Halter 49.

[The Understander]

Originally Posted by davidm

Chris Matthews (MSNBC) just said that it looks like she's won. I didn't see the numbers so I can't say if he's right or not.

If she does win the primary, how the hell can the Republican Party support her in the general election without looking like loons? But how can they not support their party's candidate?

First off, ten points will be taken from California, for its serious lack of judgment.

I can't imagine that it'll be a matter of supporting or not supporting O RLY for CA Repubs, especially if the Secretary of State's office is as toothless there as it is here.

How much does it take to pose for the picture that hangs in the DMV? IMO, they'll focus on the gubernatorial and senatorial races and let the chips fall where they may for SoS.

Of course, I would hope even Democrats have the political savvy to be able to take advantage of an escaped mental patient being anywhere near their opponents' ticket.

I know, I know. I'm a dreamer.

[davidm]

Oh, I think the Democrats will at least try to hang her around their opponents necks if they can.

Even if they don't, the media will do the job for them since they won't be able to resist her antics and the ratings that will come with reporting them.

[jayjay]

The AP called it for Lincoln. I hope Arkansas likes their new Republican senator in November.

[BrainGlutton]

Analysis from The Nation: Arkansas' Lincoln Clings to Narrow Lead as Tea Partisans Show Strength in the South.

[Stuffy]

Originally Posted by davidm

Chris Matthews (MSNBC) just said that it looks like she's won. I didn't see the numbers so I can't say if he's right or not.

If she does win the primary, how the hell can the Republican Party support her in the general election without looking like loons? But how can they not support their party's candidate?

Which is why I plan on laughing like a hyena.

[E-Sabbath]

Doesn't Secretary of State certify candidates for election?

[Evil Captor]

I predict wins by Lincoln, Angle, Taintz, Haley, Whitman and that Italian sounding rich businessman.

What?

[Least Original User Name Ever]

Originally Posted by Evil Captor

I predict wins by Lincoln, Angle, Taintz, Haley, Whitman and that Italian sounding rich businessman.

What?

World's worst law firm.

[Jonathan Chance]

And she goes down 3-1. What were you guys thinking?

Angle getting nominated is the best thing that's happened to Harry Reid is years. I predict she goes down in defeat, not being palatable to Vegas and the surrounding areas.

[The Understander]

Originally Posted by E-Sabbath

Doesn't Secretary of State certify candidates for election?

She has no chance in the general.

[Jonathan Chance]

Am I on ignore, here? She LOST. LOST. BADLY. At no point that I saw was she seriously in play for a win.

SHE LOST!




LOST!

[The Understander]

Correction:

Orly lost the primary. I'd restore California's points, but ... Carly Fiorina. Decision stands.

[The Understander]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance

Am I on ignore, here? She LOST. LOST. BADLY. At no point that I saw was she seriously in play for a win.

SHE LOST!




LOST!

Don't you feel better, getting to say it yet again?

I didn't see your post before. Apologies, man.

[jayjay]

Originally Posted by Enfant Terrible

Don't you feel better, getting to say it yet again?

I'm somewhat disappointed, to tell the truth. I was so looking forward to a loooong campaign by Orly. Just the months of expressions of pain and despair on Republicans' faces would have been worth the (infinitesimal) risk of her winning.

[E-Sabbath]

Originally Posted by Enfant Terrible

She has no chance in the general.

Of course she doesn't. But sometimes it's fun to play 'oh god we're all gonna die.' Like, say, everyone was a moron and just voted for the name they recognized.

[davidm]

Well, Matthews certainly jumped the gun on that. Like I said I didn't have any idea if he knew what he was talking about or not. He obviously didn't.

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

I'm disatisfied with the Republican Senate nominee in Nevada-she's an unconstructive extremenist.

[jayjay]

Originally Posted by Curtis LeMay

I'm disatisfied with the Republican Senate nominee in Nevada-she's an unconstructive extremenist.

Like the other one was much better...chickens for checkups? Although I have to say that "unconstructive extremist" sounds a lot like the typical post-2008 Republican to me.

[Duke of Rat]

Originally Posted by Curtis LeMay

I'm disatisfied with the Republican Senate nominee in Nevada-she's an unconstructive extremenist.

Lighten up, she just cinched a Reid victory.

[E-Sabbath]

Originally Posted by jayjay

Like the other one was much better...chickens for checkups? Although I have to say that "unconstructive extremist" sounds a lot like the typical post-2008 Republican to me.

Well, she wants to ban alcohol, favors the scientology Purification Rundown treatments for prisoners to redeem them, wants to end the IRS, Social Security, the Department of Education, the EPA... few other fun things.

So she's a little more unconstructive than usual.

[Chronos]

Lighten up, she just cinched a Reid victory.

I'm pretty sure Curtis regards that as a bad thing.