How safe is Michele Bachmann's seat?

[Rhythmdvl]

Other than as a font of shock-speak and radical thought promoted by Fox news, most of what I know of Bachmann came from the Congresswoman with the crazy eyes thread (which hasn't been updated since April). I believe she's being challenged by Tarryl Clark in the 2010 elections. Is this likely a gimme for Bachmann or does she have an electoral fight on her hands?

[Simplicio]

She won by three points in '08, which is closeish, but also was in a banner year for Dems and had record turn-out. Its hard to see her doing worse then that this time around, at least if she can keep from saying anything outrageously offensive for the the next few months.

[tumbleddown]

The D-Triple-C is not pushing hard on Bachmann, not nearly as hard as Harry Reid's equally moonbat opponent, Sharron Angle is being hammered. Clark is a part of their "Red to Blue" campaign, 26 candidates that they're giving special attention in an effort to unseat 26 "vulnerable" Republicans, but they're not really making a lot of effort. It seems like a combination of Bachmann's district's vulnerability after Census enumeration and a concept of Bachmann being small potatoes, which is shortsighted.

[Rhythmdvl]

Originally Posted by tumbleddown

The D-Triple-C is not pushing hard on Bachmann, not nearly as hard as Harry Reid's equally moonbat opponent, Sharron Angle is being hammered. Clark is a part of their "Red to Blue" campaign, 26 candidates that they're giving special attention in an effort to unseat 26 "vulnerable" Republicans, but they're not really making a lot of effort. It seems like a combination of Bachmann's district's vulnerability after Census enumeration and a concept of Bachmann being small potatoes, which is shortsighted.

Any statement from the DC³ about why? Is it that they feel the 3 points Simplicio referred to makes it too safe? That the risk of making the campaign too high profile will elevate her in stature? Though a junior congressperson, she is one of the defacto spokespersons for the right and a defeat could be turned into a repudiation of her batshittiness. Redistricting her out of her seat puts things off for three years at least, and gives her a victim card to play that's wholly outside the policy sphere.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Bachmann is arguably a liability to the Republican Party. I mean, if you imagine the Democrats "planting" a Congressperson to make the Republicans look silly, it would be tough to distinguish the plant from Bachmann.

[Rhythmdvl]

Are you calling her a potted plant?

Interesting. ISTM that her egregiousness garners more votes than she's losing. I'm just not comfortable with the idea that Bachmann et al are merely making the Republicans look silly.

[Dangerosa]

Its pretty safe. If she had a respectable GOP challenger, she might loose it, but that part of the state isn't likely to go Democrat. Her biggest misstep is taking BP's "side" - but I don't think that will hurt her enough.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Originally Posted by Rhythmdvl

Are you calling her a potted plant?

Interesting. ISTM that her egregiousness garners more votes than she's losing. I'm just not comfortable with the idea that Bachmann et al are merely making the Republicans look silly.

I'm not saying she is a plant. I'm saying that 90% of the nonsense coming out of her mouth is what I'd tell her to say if she was a plant designed to drive independents away from the Republican Party.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Rhythmdvl

How safe is Michele Bachmann's seat?

Pretty safe. I, at any rate, wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.

[BobLibDem]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Pretty safe. I, at any rate, wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.

I've always imagined that Michelle is quite the tigress in bed, for what it's worth.


Minnesotans, is her district the one that doesn't get any education funds or what? I've always thought of Minnesotans as pretty tolerant and intelligent folks, how could you elect such a dolt?

[Kevbo]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

I've always imagined that Michelle is quite the tigress in bed, for what it's worth.

I concur. There is no sex hotter than the crazy sex... and it is never remotely worth the aftermath. Thus count me with the Bargepole dude.

[Rhythmdvl]

Originally Posted by Kevbo

I concur. There is no sex hotter than the crazy sex... and it is never remotely worth the aftermath. Thus count me with the Bargepole dude.

Don't stick your Bargepole in the crazy. Words to live by.

[joebuck20]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

I've always imagined that Michelle is quite the tigress in bed, for what it's worth.

I'd hit that.

[Boyo Jim]

I saw Tarryl Clark on Olberman the other night, and I wasn't very impressed. I understand what she was doing -- she had a script and some points she kept repeating, but they didn't fit in very well with what she was being asked. So she didn't come off as being very smart, or conversationally agile. Which makes her a pretty typical politician.

I'm sure she would do a better job than Bachman but she doesn't strike me as someone who is going to dazzle the folk in her district and get them to switch their votes.

[Boyo Jim]

Originally Posted by Kevbo

I concur. There is no sex hotter than the crazy sex... and it is never remotely worth the aftermath. Thus count me with the Bargepole dude.

It's different with celebrity crazy. They don't even want to admit you ever existed, so you don't have to deal with any blowback after the blow job.

[descamisado]

Originally Posted by Boyo Jim

I'm sure she would do a better job than Bachman but she doesn't strike me as someone who is going to dazzle the folk in her district and get them to switch their votes.

If her reading on the Bargepole Meter^TM results in even slightly more votes than Batshit, that's all we can ask.

[sleeping]

Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright

I'm not saying she is a plant. I'm saying that 90% of the nonsense coming out of her mouth is what I'd tell her to say if she was a plant designed to drive independents away from the Republican Party.

Well, she's definitely a vegetable.

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

Originally Posted by tumbleddown

The D-Triple-C is not pushing hard on Bachmann, not nearly as hard as Harry Reid's equally moonbat opponent, Sharron Angle is being hammered.

The DCCC isn't hammering any Senate candidates because it's a Democratic House Committee that works to elect Democrats to the House. Reid was always going to attack his challenger hard. it's not really a DSCC calculation to defend his seat as more valuable or winnable, he's majority leader and he has a lot of fight in him and ability to fund raise. Otherwise I agree.

[Chimera]

Oddly, her election campaign and the opposition are really flying under the radar. I live in the Minneapolis Suburbs, and unlike two years ago, have heard almost nothing about the campaign for that district.

Although it may be Media Burnout too, because we're not getting buried in political ads (that I have seen) or media stories on ANY election up here right now. I'm extremely happy about that, as I get damned tired of being overwhelmed with bullshit political stuff for months and even years on end during the election cycles.

[Inner Stickler]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

Minnesotans, is her district the one that doesn't get any education funds or what? I've always thought of Minnesotans as pretty tolerant and intelligent folks, how could you elect such a dolt?

The counties she represents just skew really fucking conservative. It was a rather odd experience in 08 to walk off campus and see all the tinklenburg signs replaced by bachmann.

[Simplicio]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy Dunlop

The DCCC isn't hammering any Senate candidates because it's a Democratic House Committee that works to elect Democrats to the House. Reid was always going to attack his challenger hard. it's not really a DSCC calculation to defend his seat as more valuable or winnable, he's majority leader and he has a lot of fight in him and ability to fund raise. Otherwise I agree.

Angle is also relatively unknown to the voters, so it makes sense to unleash a flurry of ads to try and emphasize her image as a nutjob. I doubt there are any voters in Bachmann's district that are both interested enough in politics to vote in the midterms but aren't already familiar with her various nutty statements and views.

[Sitnam]

I just saw Tarryl Clark's commercial, it was ok, and I don't believe any incumbent has given as much ammunition to her challenger as Mrs. Bachmann.

Her's might be the only campaign where the rhetoric ISN'T as bad as the truth.

[Rhythmdvl]

Recent HuffPost article:

Michele Bachmann Congressional Challenger Tarryl Clark Finishes Strong Fundraising Quarter With $2 Million In The Bank

During the second quarter of this year, Clark took in $910,000, bringing her fundraising total for the entire campaign beyond the $2 million mark.

"We've built an unprecedented grassroots campaign that now includes over 24,000 individual donors," said Clark campaign manager Zach Rodvold, the Minnesota Post reports.

...

Meanwhile, Bachmann released her own Q2 fund-raising totals on Wednesday and the numbers were extremely high. The Tea Party favorite reported a cash haul of $1.7 million, a figure up significantly from the $800,000 she brought in last quarter. (emphasis added)

Bachmann has the full advertising support of Fox news et al behind her, so it's not surprising that she's able to outpace Clark in fund-raising. Not that Clark isn't pulling in non-district support, but it would be interesting to see a fund-raising map.

[Simplicio]

Man, I wouldn't want to live in that district, with both candidates sitting on millions in a cheap market, every available surface is going to be coated with campaign commercials.

Anyhoo, here's a poll that has Bachmann up by nine. Not an insurmountable lead, but not great for the challenger either.

[BrainGlutton]

And in other news Michele Bachmann is starting a House Tea Party Caucus.

[MN_Maenad]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

Minnesotans, is her district the one that doesn't get any education funds or what? I've always thought of Minnesotans as pretty tolerant and intelligent folks, how could you elect such a dolt?

There's a segment of conservatives I call the "I got mine so screw you" contingent, and her district is full of them. There's also a segment of MN conservatives that approve of every politician that says "Jesus" often enough, and Bachmann is really good at playing that card.

[imthjckaz]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

And in other news Michele Bachmann is starting a House Tea Party Caucus.

Tarryl Clark is having some Iced Tea Parties today around the district.

Good thing too, it's gonna be hot and sticky today.

[t-bonham@scc.net]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

I've always thought of Minnesotans as pretty tolerant and intelligent folks, how could you elect such a dolt?

First, Bachman has never gotten even 50% of the vote. She wins because a third party candidate pulls enough votes away from the DFL candidate for her to scrape through.

Second, she vastly outspends her opponents. She pulls in money nationwide from rich, conservative Republicans, and so is able to overwhelm her opponents with advertising.

Third, she is in a suburban, conservative district. People who got their college education via government-guaranteed student loans, now live in their homes financed with government based mortgages, drive in to the city on government built freeways, and complain that 'the government never does anything for me!' These people just vote Republican without looking at the individual candidates.

Fourth, her district is tending more independent. But it isn't helping her opponents. People living there don't like to think of themself as supporting a political party, so they like to switch votes. So in 2008, many of them voted for Obama (D) for President, so on the next line they voted for Bachman (R) to balance that out.

Given all these factors, it will be really hard to defeat her in this district, even with an exceptional candidate like Tarryl Clark. Frankly, most of these elections were decided back after 2000 when a panel of judges set the boundaries of the Minnesota Congressional Districts. Only 1 of them has switched parties since then, and that took a real effort.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by t-bonham@scc.net

First, Bachman has never gotten even 50% of the vote. She wins because a third party candidate pulls enough votes away from the DFL candidate for her to scrape through.

This year, it's (again) Bob Anderson of the Independence Party, which in the past has been strong enough in Minnesota to elect a governor . . . but Anderson ran for the same seat in 2008 and only got 10% of the vote.

[Starving Artist]

Originally Posted by MN_Maenad

There's a segment of conservatives I call the "I got mine so screw you" contingent...

And they are usually called that by the "I want what you earned" contingent.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Yes, it's a popular name for them all around.