2011 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

[Omniscient]

Mel Kiper released his first 2011 NFL Mock Draft today. ESPN Insiders can see it here:

Kiper: Fairley tops first 2011 mock draft

For those of you who aren’t Insiders let me know and I’ll answer any questions about prospects or your team’s projection. Obviously Mock Drafts at this early stage are tenuous at best, but I still think they are good fun to discuss. If you were wondering, Kiper gave the Steelers the 32nd pick, the Bears the 31st, the Jets the 30th and the Packers the 29th. I’m sure that’s based solely on season records as opposed to any predictions but it’s amusing anyways.

Here’s the Top 6 Picks and his breakdowns. (I went to six just for SenorBeef’s sake)

@Mel Kiper Jr.

When the presumptive No. 1 overall draft pick opts to go back to school, it can really alter the draft process. As I detailed here, when Stanford QB Andrew Luck made that decision, dominos fell. And in over 30 years of evaluating talent, many of them for ESPN, this year sticks out as one that could have a lot of movement throughout the process leading to the draft. But it’s time to get going.

As it is every year, the mock draft is a blend of my evaluations, hundreds of conversations with people who scout these prospects, people who have coached them and many who plan to. And there’s always some gut calls. The usual ground rules apply: The mock draft reflects the current order. The last four picks are based on regular-season records, not predictions. Will there be trades? Of course. But those obviously can’t be predicted. As always, juniors and draft-eligible sophomores are noted with an asterisk.

Let’s get the season – and the debates – started …
1. Carolina Panthers
Record: 2-14

*** Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn**

The No. 1 overall player on the Big Board, and one who can pay immediate dividends. Fairley isn’t just a safe pick because of his excellent burst, violent hand action and ability to effectively penetrate and be a constant nuisance against both the run and pass; he also has the chance to be a dominant player regardless of system. Detroit and Tampa Bay drafted the top defensive tackles at Nos. 2 and 3 last year. Carolina should start earlier in 2011. A slight mean streak in a DT isn’t the worst trait. Even Ndamukong Suh showed a bit of one this season.

2. Denver Broncos
Record: 4-12

*** Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU**

Denver CB Champ Bailey is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s a free agent entering his 13th NFL season and Peterson has the physical skills to be an immediate starter in the secondary and a force in the return game. Denver has enough needs where it could go several directions with this pick, but getting the best size-speed combo in the draft, a guy who can help immediately, is a smart play. Simply an electrifying talent.

3. Buffalo Bills
Record: 4-12

*** Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama**

Buffalo has started to assemble the pieces for its 3-4 defense and Dareus has outstanding pass-rush skills and fits as a defensive end in the system. This is too early to take an offensive tackle in terms of value, but it’s a good opportunity to land an ideal fit if the Bills don’t want to trade down. I’m sure some Bills fans would clamor for a guy like A.J. Green in this spot, but after 2010 the Bills simply have to address the lines, and the development of Stevie Johnson limits the receiver need anyway.

4. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-12

*** Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson**

Rookie Carlos Dunlap came on late for the Bengals and finished with 9.5 sacks, but the chance to draft the best pure pass-rusher on the board and immediately have in place a more formidable pass rush is too much to pass up. Bowers has the skill-set, explosiveness and relentless pass-rushing skills of a No. 1 overall pick. He’s a good value, even at No. 4.

5. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-11

*** Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri**

The Cardinals were a mess at quarterback in 2010, and while Max Hall and John Skelton showed glimpses, both are projects, and there’s no real solution in place for next season outside of a trade. Gabbert will be under the microscope during the testing process perhaps more than any other player, but at this stage he’s the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. Arizona is in a tough spot: If the Cardinals pass on Gabbert, there won’t be a QB who can do more for them sooner than Skelton or Hall later in the draft. Gabbert offers a strong arm, protoype size, reads the game well and has a lot of upside.

6. Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11

*** A.J. Green, WR, Georgia**

The Browns need a No.1 wideout and Green has fit the profile since he landed between the hedges at Georgia. Green is a complete package, with size, speed and solid route-running skills, and he will be the best friend of a young quarterback as a player that’s able to go up and take the ball away. Cleveland has some good pieces, and Green is exactly what Colt McCoy needs.

And because I’m a self-centered bastard here’s the Bears projection.

@Mel Kiper Jr.

31. Chicago Bears
Record: 11-5

*** Aaron Williams, CB, Texas**

Chicago needs help at corner and Williams is a safe pick. A solid character guy with exceptional ball skills, he has good speed, awareness and above-average size for the position, at a hair under 6-1 and 192 pounds. A guy who excels at the takeaway, he’ll be able to deliver INTs for a coach who craves turnovers. He is also a very good special teams player.

The Bears are deep at CB so I’m not sure what Mel is smoking here. Tillman is getting up in years and Jennings kinda came out of nowhere, but they’ve got solid back-ups behind them and unless they get gutted in free agency depth really shouldn’t be an issue. Lovie and Jerry have shown a belief, and surprisingly enough a talent for, finding quality DBs in the middle rounds. Lovie as a DB specialist himself always believes he can sculpt a starting DB out of a lower pick and the Tampa 2 he runs is specifically tailored to de-emphasize the pressure to land an elite lock down corner. Spending a first rounder there would be a complete departure for this team and would neglect the OL and WR positions that are far weaker and harder to find in later rounds.

He’s got my ideal picks, Mike Pouncey or Julio Jones, both slotted in at the 19th and 14th picks respectively and at this point it seems like a pipe dream that either will fall to the Bears. I’m not really seeing a C/OG or a WR who’d be a good value at the 32nd (!!!) pick so I think I’d want to see the Bears go for a pass rusher at this spot instead of a CB. I sneaky pick would be to draft a luxury pick in a speedy RB or maybe hometown favorite Mikel Leshoure.

[RetroVertigo]

Could you post Mel’s 49ers analysis?

[Omniscient]

Sure!

@Mel Kiper Jr

San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-10

*** Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina**

It’s an understatement to say that Quinn will be fresh. After sitting out his entire junior year at Chapel Hill, it’s a testament to Quinn’s talent that he’s this high on the draft board. And make no mistake – scouts think extremely highly of Quinn. If his preparations for the draft process are up to par, at this spot he offers the Niners a pure pass-rusher at defensive end that can only be matched by Bowers.

I didn’t realize that Todd McShay did his first Mock Draft too. Find it here:

2011 NFL Draft: DE Bowers top McShay's mock

Here’s his first 7 picks:

@Todd McShay

The deadline for underclassmen to declare for the NFL draft has come and gone, and the 2011 draft board is undergoing plenty of shuffling as the college all-star season gets underway.

That means it’s time for Scouts Inc.'s second mock draft of the year, which features a new No. 1 after Stanford QB Andrew Luck decided to return to school. Defensive players, including a pair of dominating defensive linemen, make up three of the top five and six of the top 10.

Things will surely change as the all-star circuit plays out and prospects take part in the NFL combine and personal workouts, but here’s how we see things at this early stage in the pre-draft process.
1. Carolina Panthers
Record: 2-14

Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

The Panthers made no secret of the fact that they would draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck if he were available, but with Luck off the board they turn their attention to their need for a pass-rusher. Bowers is the best available with his explosiveness, and he also has the strength to hold the edge against the run.

2. Denver Broncos
Record: 4-12

Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Denver needs to overhaul its defensive front, and while new coach John Fox has not yet named a defensive coordinator, Fairley has the versatility to play in a 3-4 or 4-3 front. Fairley is quick, disruptive and plays with an edge, and he could not be blocked by one man during the college season.

3. Buffalo Bills
Record: 4-12

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

The Bills are in need of a franchise quarterback, and with Luck not on the board, Gabbert is the best available signal-caller. He has the physical tools and football smarts to become a very good NFL QB once he makes the full transition to a pro-style offense.

4. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-12

A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

The Bengals need to find the heir apparent to Carson Palmer at some point but won’t find him in this scenario. With Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco likely on their way out of town, Green would be an ideal replacement. He is very smooth for his size and plays the ball better than any receiver in the 2011 class.

5. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-11

Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

Another team with a quarterback need but no signal-caller worthy of its pick available, the Cardinals turn their attention to their next-biggest need. Peterson has a freakish combination of size and athleticism, plays the ball well and can also contribute in the return game.

6. Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11

Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

This is a tough call. The Browns need help at receiver and would take Green if he’s available, but Quinn offers great potential as a pass-rusher despite sitting out the entire 2010 season because of off-the-field issues and would fill another big need in Cleveland.

7. San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-10

Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio brings a 3-4 scheme with him, and Dareus proved his effectiveness in three-man fronts under Nick Saban at Alabama. Dareus is quick, strong and mobile and would further upgrade a defense that already ranks in the top 10 against the run.

[Omniscient]

Here’s McShay’s thoughts on the Bears:

@Todd McShay

30. Chicago Bears
Record: 11-5
**
Drake Nevis, DT, LSU**

Tommie Harris has not taken the next step to become an elite force, and the Bears are always looking for smaller, quicker defensive linemen who fit their scheme. Nevis could provide depth while preparing to step into a starting role. Chicago needs an offensive tackle but the talent dropoff is significant after the top four and no available tackle is worth this pick.

His thoughts are much more in line with mine. I think a DE to spell Idonije and Peppers and to provide a speedier option for passing downs is more in line with what they need, I think they see Melton and Toeaina (and Harris and Adams if they survive the offseason) as capable interior guys while the jury is still out on Wootton and Turner.

[crypto]

Can you give me the Steeler picks?

I ask only because I caught this on a screen roll today, and Kiper had the Steelers picking an OL (no problem there), but the guy he selected for the Steelers is chosen very high in McShay’s mock. Or, this might be visa-versa. The OT I remember one of them picking for the Steelers is from USC. The other person picked this guy to go (I think, top 10).

Sorry if this doesn’t make sense. I can’t remember the lineman’s name.

[Omniscient]

@Todd McShay

32. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 12-4

Benjamin Ijalana, OT, Villanova

Ijalana might be a bit of a surprise here but he has good physical tools and a lot of upside. A lack of depth along the offensive line has become an issue for the Steelers, and assuming Ijalana checks out medically after playing with some nagging injuries he would offer help in that area while preparing to step into a full-time role.

@Mel Kiper Jr.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 12-4

*** Tyron Smith, OT, USC**

If the current trend holds, Smith may not last this long, as he is drawing raves from scouts over the last couple months. Regardless, Pittsburgh would be thrilled to get him here, because it’s a position the Steelers must address. Smith can start early on the right side and develop into a left tackle, as he has the long frame, excellent footwork, instincts and athleticism that the position requires.

Seems like one of the guys is way off on Smith. As you note McShay has him way higher, going at 12 to the Vikings as the first OT off the board. Kiper concedes that his stock is rising and presumably he’ll have Smith coming off the board higher in his next mock, but I doubt he’ll be his top ranked OT. At this point in the process I think the positions they discuss are more interesting than the players for the teams outside the top 10 picks or so.

[crypto]

@Omniscient

Seems like one of the guys is way off on Smith. As you note McShay has him way higher, going at 12 to the Vikings as the first OT off the board. Kiper concedes that his stock is rising and presumably he’ll have Smith coming off the board higher in his next mock, but I doubt he’ll be his top ranked OT. At this point in the process I think the positions they discuss are more interesting than the players for the teams outside the top 10 picks or so.

Thanks! It is indeed Smith, and it was the Vikings at 12 by McShay and 32 by the Steelers and Kiper. That’s an amazing difference of opinion for a first round pick.

I assume that the Pouncey from Florida is Markice Pouncey’s (Steelers center, no idea how to spell his name) brother? As a Steeler fan, I’d like to have him. His brother has been nothing short of amazing this year as a rookie.

[SenorBeef]

I don’t know much about the prospects yet. I feel like Cinci is going to end up screwing us out of whoever I want most. I want either one of the elite pass rushers or AJ Green from what I understand so far. Most likely switching back to 4-3 with no prototypical ends on the team.

But WR is a greater need - no one on the roster is any good. I thought Massaquoi would be a pretty good one because he had a solid rookie year, but he hasn’t really developed any - still makes the same mistakes. He’d make a solid #2, especially for someone with a better arm than Colt McCoy - but with McCoy throwing up those floaters where every 25+ yard pass seems like it’s an up-for-grabs fade, he needs a WR that will fight for the ball and that’s not Massaquoi. If AJ Green is as good as advertised I’d be very happy to have him fall, but I could see Cinci snatching him up.

In the second round I hope a very good right tackle prospect is there, because that’s all we need to make an elite line. Right now we’ve got John Fucking St. Clair, who I blame on you personally Omni, completely killing the fucking offense with his awfulness. He ends up dragging the entire line down from what would be a solid 9/10 to maybe 7. I would rather he be cut and a fucking UFA signed off the street. But RT is one of those positions where an early second round pick can land you a great one, so I’m hoping that’s the way it shakes out.

[crypto]

@SenorBeef

But WR is a greater need - no one on the roster is any good. I thought Massaquoi would be a pretty good one because he had a solid rookie year, but he hasn’t really developed any - still makes the same mistakes. He’d make a solid #2, especially for someone with a better arm than Colt McCoy - but with McCoy throwing up those floaters where every 25+ yard pass seems like it’s an up-for-grabs fade, he needs a WR that will fight for the ball and that’s not Massaquoi. If AJ Green is as good as advertised I’d be very happy to have him fall, but I could see Cinci snatching him up.

I think the Steelers have a 2nd round pick they’d be happy to trade you a draft pick for. Limas Sweed, the Texas flash (I made that up). I have no idea what happened to him, maybe IR?

Anyway, he’ll never play for the Steelers again if this current crop stays healthy, so make an offer!

[Omniscient]

@SenorBeef

In the second round I hope a very good right tackle prospect is there, because that’s all we need to make an elite line. Right now we’ve got John Fucking St. Clair, who I blame on you personally Omni, completely killing the fucking offense with his awfulness. He ends up dragging the entire line down from what would be a solid 9/10 to maybe 7. I would rather he be cut and a fucking UFA signed off the street. But RT is one of those positions where an early second round pick can land you a great one, so I’m hoping that’s the way it shakes out.

Don’t blame me! The Bears knew he was awful and they walked away from his sorry ass even though they had jack shit to replace him with. See what we trotted out there this year and last? Not a single Bears fan missed that turd, why the Browns signed him I can’t imagine.

I’d be a little surprised if Cincy drafted AJ Green. He might be so good that they can’t pass on him and Mike Brown may be so accustomed to having a star WR that he’ll draft him in the face or other needs, but with Jerome Simpson and Jordan Shipley they have some young talent at the position already. If I were the Bengals I’d try and get Houshmandzadeh back as a veteran possession guy in the slot and spend that high pick on another need.

[Snooooopy]

@SenorBeef

In the second round I hope a very good right tackle prospect is there, because that’s all we need to make an elite line. Right now we’ve got John Fucking St. Clair, who I blame on you personally Omni, completely killing the fucking offense with his awfulness. He ends up dragging the entire line down from what would be a solid 9/10 to maybe 7. I would rather he be cut and a fucking UFA signed off the street. But RT is one of those positions where an early second round pick can land you a great one, so I’m hoping that’s the way it shakes out.

I remember back when The Greatest Show On Turf was lighting things up in St. Louis. St. Clair had to fill in at a tackle spot because of injury, and I just had a feeling that he represented the beginning of the end.

[SenorBeef]

Has he been around for that long? How the hell does a guy like that have a full career?

[soulmurk]

Cam Newton for the Skins at #10? Noooo!!

The team needs at least one of just about everything but TE, so I’m actually kind of hoping they trade down for more picks.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

Mel has the Lions taking the outside linebacker from UCLA and McShay has us taking an offensive tackle. They’re both right. I want two picks.
Really, I want a friggin’ cornerback., but that’s the “good” thing about having a shit team: you need help everywhere.

[Barkis_is_Willin]

As a Browns fan I’d be ecstatic if AJ Green is there.

Both of them like Gabbert more than Mallett? That surprises me. I don’t know as much about Gabbert, but Mallett looked pretty great the few times I saw him.

[Hamlet]

Gabbert going #5? Once again, the draftniks are in love with tall, strong, big armed men. Gabbert could very well be a great NFL quarterback, but his performance against good teams, the fact he’s a spread guy who makes maybe one read a play, and his immaturity makes him nothing more than a very nice project QB. He’s no Sam Bradford, he will take 2 or 3 years to be ready for the NFL. Spending the #5 pick of the draft on a project QB strikes me as desperation more than anything else. And if a team is desperate enough to draft him that early, they’ll be desperate enough to start him too soon, which could destroy him.

That’s about all I got now. The Packers are still in the playoffs, so outside of a few bowl games, I’m woefully underprepared.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

@Hamlet

Gabbert going #5? Once again, the draftniks are in love with tall, strong, big armed men. Gabbert could very well be a great NFL quarterback, but his performance against good teams, the fact he’s a spread guy who makes maybe one read a play, and his immaturity makes him nothing more than a very nice project QB. He’s no Sam Bradford, he will take 2 or 3 years to be ready for the NFL. Spending the #5 pick of the draft on a project QB strikes me as desperation more than anything else. And if a team is desperate enough to draft him that early, they’ll be desperate enough to start him too soon, which could destroy him.

That’s about all I got now. The Packers are still in the playoffs, so outside of a few bowl games, I’m woefully underprepared.

Cite.

[Southern_Yankee]

The Panthers’ GM, Marty Hurney, could easily screw up the #1 pick. But I’d be happy with Fairley. DT is definitely one of their top needs and I don’t really see any possibility of trading out of the 1 slot in this draft.

[Duke]

I’m not a Bills fan but I live here.

I can’t disagree more with McShay’s pick of a QB for Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an elite quarterback, to be sure, but he’s a dependable one. And the Bills have pretty much no defense or O-Line to speak of. Just about anything other than QB would be a good pick for Buffalo, actually.

[MOIDALIZE]

Where do they have Mark Ingram going? Is he the top RB?