Well, perhaps I’m the only guy here still clinging to NFL news and Mock Draft stories like Tom Hanks clung to Wilson, but Mel Kiper Jr. trotted out his latest Mock Draft and I figure it’s as good of an excuse as any to start a new thread.
In addition to the Mock 2.0, ESPN has restarted it’s First Draft Podcast featuring Kiper and McShay which I always enjoy. Listen here. I especially enjoyed the time they spent discussing the Illini draft prospects Martez Wilson, Corey Liuget and Mikel Leshoure.
In this Mock there are some drastic changes. Insiders can see it here. As usual, if you want details and want me to post them let me know.
Instead of posting the first few picks like I did in the last thread I’ll comment on the big movers.
First, Kiper has elevated Da’Quan Bowers, McShay’s first overall pick, from #4 to #2 going to Denver.
[QUOTE=Mel Kiper]
2. Denver Broncos
Record: 4-12
*** Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson**
I can see Denver looking at Patrick Peterson here, but remember this is a team that could be looking at a system change up front. And in that vein, in Bowers the Broncos can take a player who could be a dominant pass-rusher as a 4-3 defensive end or stand up as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He is the most pure pass-rusher in the draft and can quickly add production at either spot. Further, given health and system changes, Denver can’t assume great production from Elvis Dumervil. Bowers makes a lot of sense and can stay in orange.
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The biggest story is Cam Newton, Kiper elevated him from #10 to #3 now going to the Bills.
[QUOTE=Mel Kiper]
3. Buffalo Bills
Record: 4-12
*** Cam Newton, QB, Auburn**
From the day he landed on the Big Board for the first time, I’ve said that Newton’s physical skills and underrated ability as a passer could lead him all the way to the top of the draft. In Buffalo, what you have is an ideal foundation for his career. The Bills can keep Ryan Fitzpatrick around and develop Newton at a slower pace. But given Newton’s total package of skills and size, and his proven ability as a guy who can adapt, deal with adversity and win, he represents a real possibility to land in the top five.
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This is a similar thought to one that I shared in a recent comment in that first thread.
[QUOTE=Omniscient]
Anyone care to speculate on what the odds of either Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert having an electric Combine and Pro Day/Private Workout and leapfrogging the top defensive candidates into the #1 overall pick?
In light of the recent success of Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and to a lesser extent Matt Stafford a lowly team like Carolina might see value in taking a QB #1 overall in spite of elite prospects at defensive positions. Carolina’s one strength last year was it’s defensive line, notably Charles Johnson exploding in Pepper’s absence for 12 sacks making both Nick Fairley and Da-Quan Bowers a bit of a luxury pick. The Panthers do have Jimmy Claussen but he disappointed and under a new caching staff might not get the benefit of the doubt in this second season. The Bills, Bengals, Cardinals, Browns, 49ers and Titans drafting 3-8 all have potentially dire situations at QB and could be eager to trade up, especially if the new CBA lowers the financial burden of the top overall pick.
Remember at this time last year Ndamukong Suh was projected as the consensus #1 pick at this stage of the process last season and ended up falling to #2.
Personally, I predict that there’s a 50-50 chance that neither Bowers or Fairly goes #1 overall. I’d project that there’s a 40% chance that the top QB goes first, a 15% chance that a team other than the Panthers takes a QB first and a 10% chance that A.J. Green leapfrogs everyone and becomes the heir apparent to Steve Smith.
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In the First Draft podcast McShay pointed out that 9 of the top 12 picks are teams that could be looking for a QB, echoing the case I made and they also speculated that with the rookie wage scale trades might become more common at the top. I suspect that once the Combine comes around and teams get a chance to interview these kids drafting Nick Fairley at the top will become much less appealing, on the field he had a lot of Albert Haynesworth in him, both good and bad.
Kiper has Patrick Peterson, the CB out of LSU, falling way down to #7 from #2 to the 49ers.
[QUOTE=Mel Kiper]
7. San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-10
*** Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU**
San Francisco has other needs – in fact, I count three ahead of cornerback – but Peterson would be too much to pass up here in terms of talent. A freakish athlete, he immediately steps in as a starter at corner, moving that to a position of strength for the Niners. Peterson also adds a dangerous element in the return game. A corner with safety size, Peterson won’t need the NFL combine to assure evaluators of his physical skills.
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If Kiper is right that CB isn’t a position in demand at the top Peterson could be our green room casualty this year.
Similarly, Marcell Dareus falls from #3 to #8.
[QUOTE=Mel Kiper]
8. Tennessee Titans
Record: 6-10
*** Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama**
Dareus is the rare player you can draft with almost no concern for systems. A player who can be a dominant pass-rusher from the 3-4 defensive end position, he also profiles to star in his more natural 4-3 defensive tackle position. I have defensive tackle as one of the top needs for Tennessee, which also could surprise some folks and take a quarterback here to develop if they bring back Kerry Collins. But for immediate help, Dareus is a safe pick.
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A couple of big climbers are Von Miller and J.J. Watt. #8 to #5 and #17 all the way up to #6.
[QUOTE=Mel Kiper]
5. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-11
Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Joey Porter is unlikely to be back, and Miller would represent an immediate pass-rushing upgrade on the edge of Arizona’s 3-4 scheme. The Texas A&M standout made his name in 2009 as a sack artist but developed a range of skills in 2010 and has become a complete player. He stands up well against the run and drops into coverage seamlessly.
6. Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
*** J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin**
This pick will surprise, but you have to consider the fit, not just the player. The Browns need to upgrade along the defensive line, and outside of the top two guys in this mock draft, you won’t find a more consistently disruptive and versatile player along the defensive line than Watt, who can come in and provide immediate help as either a 3-4 or 4-3 defensive end (as the Browns adjust). He’s a guy who can thrive regardless of the system. If Green still was sitting here, he would be a tantalizing option, but this might be a slight reach for Julio Jones.
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Kiper was sleeping on Corey Liuget the first time around leaving him outside the first round entirely last month but has him going #14 to the Rams now.
[QUOTE=Mel Kiper]
14. St. Louis Rams
Record: 7-9
*** Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois**
A relentless player who plays powerfully and locates the ball extremely well against both the rush and the pass, Liuget fills a need spot for the Rams. If Jones still was on the board, I suspect St. Louis would target the receiver, but if he isn’t and the Rams stay here, an interior lineman like Liuget offers much greater value than a reach on a wideout. I also can see the Rams going for an outside linebacker at this spot. Liuget has drawn more buzz from NFL folks, causing many to take a closer look. The reviews are very good.
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The back end of the draft is now decided and Kiper has the Bears going in a completely different direction and I really dislike his thought here.
[QUOTE=Mel Kiper]
29. Chicago Bears
Record: 11-5
Ben Ijalana, OT, Villanova
While the questions after a playoff loss centered around the toughness of the quarterback, many Bears fans forgot that Jay Cutler was hit as much or more than any other QB in the league all season. Even on many of his good plays, he was dodging rushers. The Bears did some decent work on their line in last year’s draft with a late steal but should attack it early in 2011. Ijalana offers versatilty and the ability to step in early. Solid fit.
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I agree that OT is where I want them to go, but I think that Carimi is the must have here but Kiper has him going 6 picks earlier to the Eagles. Ijalana reads to me like Chris Williams 2.0. An undersized marshmallow who is experienced and a high character guy with good feet and hands, that’s Williams exact scouting report. In reality he’s a pussy who can’t run block for shit and isn’t athletic enough to adjust to NFL blitzes. Hopefully with Tice in the fold the Bears won’t make the same mistake twice.
One scary thought was a comment made by Kiper in the First Draft Podcast regarding the Green Bay Packers, he mentioned that Torrey Smith would be a great fit and something the might consider. Kiper has him coming off the board before the Packers pick here.
[QUOTE=Mel Kiper]
28. New England Patriots
Record: 14-2
*** Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland**
The Patriots did a great job of changing their passing game by adding top-end pass-catching talent at the tight end position last year, and while they have some talent at wide receiver, Wes Welker is by no means a player who can stretch the field, and Deion Branch isn’t a player defenses worry about with the deep ball. Smith adds speed and the chance to turn short catches into touchdowns. He will develop as a deep threat as well. New England shouldn’t wonder whether it gave Tom Brady enough weapons.
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But he mentioned that the Packers need help in the return game and with Driver aging Smith could be a way to revitalize the position and give Rodgers a weapon for years to come. Frankly, I think it’d be a brilliant move. There won’t be an OT available in this scenario and I don’t see any scenario where one’s available with the last pick. I’m not sold on Smith’s ability, he looks really sloppy in the film I’ve watched, and he’s a bit undersized but if the scouts are right about him he’d be a dangerous player in the NFC North. His return skills alone would make a big impact and he looks a lot like Greg Jennings which would make a scare 1-2 punch downfield with Rodger’s arm.