2012 French Presidential Election

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

Not only is the American Republic holding its Presidential election, so is France in 2012. A notable thing to note is that the ultra-conservative National Front may win the first round of the election owing to Sarkozy's unpopularity and the perversion of Dominque Strauss-Kahn the Socialists' strongest candidate. Of course even if that does happen, all the other parties will promptly back the second party to curbstomp Mademoiselle Le-Pen.

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

Hollande wins first round of election, Sarkozy gets second: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ond-place.html

[Giles]

So, it seems most likely that the socialist, François Hollande, will be the next President of the French Republic.

[Simplicio]

Originally Posted by Giles

So, it seems most likely that the socialist, François Hollande, will be the next President of the French Republic.

Really? The article seems to take that stance as well, but I'd think Le Pen voters would be more likely to break for Sarkozy.

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

Really? The article seems to take that stance as well, but I'd think Le Pen voters would be more likely to break for Sarkozy.

A lot of them might end up abstaining (as they tend to be apathetic, poor working-class people) and in addition a lot of the moderate Bayrou voters might be scared off to Hollande if Sarkozy moves to the right.

[BrainGlutton]

Melenchon of the Left Party got 11% -- is there any reason why all those votes wouldn't go to Hollande in the runoff?

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Melenchon of the Left Party got 11% -- is there any reason why all those votes wouldn't go to Hollande in the runoff?

They almost certainly will all go to Monsieur Hollande but that adds up to only about 40% of the electorate. For him to win he needs to attract Bayrou voters or count on Le Pen's voters to abstain.

[Quartz]

Originally Posted by Giles

So, it seems most likely that the socialist, François Hollande, will be the next President of the French Republic.

Not really. Hollande only came top by 1%. If you assume those who voted for Le Pen will vote for Sarkozy and those who voted for Melenchon will vote for Hollande, then Sarkozy's a comfortable winner. I don't know enough about the other candidates to assign their voters.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Quartz

Not really. Hollande only came top by 1%. If you assume those who voted for Le Pen will vote for Sarkozy and those who voted for Melenchon will vote for Hollande, then Sarkozy's a comfortable winner. I don't know enough about the other candidates to assign their voters.

Maybe so, but:

Three French polls conducted on Sunday evening as results that came in predicted Hollande would win next month's runoff by eight to 12 percentage points.

[yojimbo]

On the radio this morning a French commentator said that a lot of Le Pen voters where protest votes from people who where either going to vote far left or right depending on which would make the biggest impact. A lot of these people will break for Hollande in a two horse race.

Any French posters care to assess that assesment? It sounds strange but I'm not familiar with French voting tactics.

[What the .... ?!?!]

How about educating a knuckle-dragging yankee like me re the positions of each of those mentioned?

[Kobal2]

Originally Posted by What the .... ?!?!

How about educating a knuckle-dragging yankee like me re the positions of each of those mentioned?

Hollande : Socialist party, center left, often portrayed as something of a wimp
Sarkozy : UMP, center right veering ever righter, current president and bit of an asshole
Le Pen : Front National, 1930s style Death Ray fascist. This is not hyperbole, she's even worse than her father.
Mélenchon : far left (but not quite communist), kind of cray-cray when it comes to economy.

Originally Posted by yojimbo

On the radio this morning a French commentator said that a lot of Le Pen voters where protest votes from people who where either going to vote far left or right depending on which would make the biggest impact. A lot of these people will break for Hollande in a two horse race.

Any French posters care to assess that assesment? It sounds strange but I'm not familiar with French voting tactics.

I doubt it honestly, considering what happened on the eve of Chirac's second term. Back then due to a combination of extreme ratfucking among the left & greens ; the kind of protest voting you're mentioning ; and general voters' apathy Le Pen (senior, not the current one) snuck into the second turn of the election. That put every lefty voter in a shitty position: either abstain and risk Le Pen winning, or go out and vote for an out-and-out crook. Many still feel bitter about having been "forced" to vote for Chirac.

Plus Sarkozy's courting those sweet, sweet 18.5% real hard, as evidenced by the UMP's new frontpage ("vote for us if you hate immigrants and Muslims ! Also welfare queens !"). Protest votes from the left certainly explain Mélenchon's surprising 11%, but I don't know about the FN. It's true that they've reached a higher percentage than usual (they typically gravitate around 14%) but I would wager those are protest votes from the right rather than the left.

[What the .... ?!?!]

Originally Posted by Kobal2

Hollande : Socialist party, center left, often portrayed as something of a wimp
Sarkozy : UMP, center right veering ever righter, current president and bit of an asshole
Le Pen : Front National, 1930s style Death Ray fascist. This is not hyperbole, she's even worse than her father.
Mélenchon : far left (but not quite communist), kind of cray-cray when it comes to economy.

Thanks! ..... and what are the big issues? Is the Greek bailout one? How about Syria?

[MichaelEmouse]

Originally Posted by Kobal2

Mélenchon : far left (but not quite communist), kind of cray-cray when it comes to economy.

Is it true he's talked about nationalizing the banks and big businesses?

Is that taken seriously after Mitterand's similar attempt? Has that been brought up to Mélenchon?



More generally:
Is there a significant difference in voter turn out between the first and second round? Do young people tend to vote significantly less on the second round than the first?

[Kobal2]

Originally Posted by MichaelEmouse

Is it true he's talked about nationalizing the banks and big businesses?

Is that taken seriously after Mitterand's similar attempt? Has that been brought up to Mélenchon?

Not sure about that (honestly I'm not paying too much attention, since I don't vote myself) but I do know he claimed he would tax incomes above 350k euros at 100%. So, yeah, looneytunes

Is there a significant difference in voter turn out between the first and second round? Do young people tend to vote significantly less on the second round than the first?

Not as far as I can tell - just checked the Wiki for the results of the last election (Sarkozy vs. Royal) : first round was 83.77% of registered voters, second round 83.97%. The election before that, of course, voter turnout was exceptional on the second round as previously mentioned (notably among the young). I wouldn't expect much difference this time around however.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by MichaelEmouse

Is it true he's talked about nationalizing the banks and big businesses?

Is that taken seriously after Mitterand's similar attempt? Has that been brought up to Mélenchon?

I dunno, but here's what In These Times had to say about Melenchon and his party before the first-round election.

Mélenchon has taken on the National Front directly, even on these sensitive issues. Highlighting the plight of the undocumented, he attacked attempts to divide workers on the basis of immigration status.

Speaking to In These Times, University College London professor Philippe Marlière explored the Left Front’s strategy:

Yet the coalition is a threat to more than the Right. Mélenchon’s platform is bold and openly radical. He dismisses Socialist candidate François Hollande as “bourgeois” and proposes a shorter work week, higher minimum wage, a jobs program, selective nationalizations, and a 100 percent tax on earnings over 300,000 euros.

No hint there of what "selective nationalizations" would include.

[alphaboi867]

Not that it has anything to do with the election, but I think it's interesting that M. Hollande is the former domestic partner of the Socialists candidate in the last presidential election, Mme. Ségolène Royal.

[BrainGlutton]

This is interesting:

Al Jazeera's Tim Friend, reporting from Paris, said that Sarkozy would struggle to win votes from the far right.

"Marine Le Pen will not direct her unexpectedly large vote towards Sarkozy," he said. "She wants to see his party weakened and to establish herself as the strong voice of the right."

Polls quoted by AFP news agency show most far-right supporters prefer Sarkozy, but up to a quarter - mainly working-class voters attracted by Le Pen's protectionist trade policies - could switch to Hollande.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by alphaboi867

Not that it has anything to do with the election, but I think it's interesting that M. Hollande is the former domestic partner of the Socialists candidate in the last presidential election, Mme. Ségolène Royal.

[shrug] So what, so they both lose a few pinko-points for not being queer . . .

[BigAppleBucky]

Originally Posted by Kobal2

Hollande : Socialist party, center left, often portrayed as something of a wimp
Sarkozy : UMP, center right veering ever righter, current president and bit of an asshole
Le Pen : Front National, 1930s style Death Ray fascist. This is not hyperbole, she's even worse than her father.
Mélenchon : far left (but not quite communist), kind of cray-cray when it comes to economy.

So in American terms:
Hollande = George McGovern
Sarkozy (on a middling day) = Obama
Sakozy (in a right mood) = Romney
LePen = Rick Santorum
Mélenchon = Norman Thomas

[gamerunknown]

I'd say LePen would be closer to Ron Paul, David Duke or a member of the Constitutionalist party. It's difficult to categorise some of her positions. For example, she's expressed a desire to increase corporate taxes (at least make them more progressive compared to small business taxes) whereas Santorum supports cutting them (while I assume they're actually lower in the US than France in the first place). She is opposed to abortion like Santorum and Ron Paul, but unlike Ron Paul, she supports capital punishment. Unlike Santorum, (but like Paul) she's expressed support for the secular nature of the Republic.

The most bizarre position (apart from being in an explicitly fascistic party, unlike Santorum) is probably that of a moratorium on legal immigration. That'd put her on a par with David Duke in my opinion.

[Kobal2]

Yeah, I've seen the equation of Le Pen with Ron Paul (and Rick Santorum) a few times over the web, and neither is correct, since neither of them is a 1930s fascist.

She may share her social policies with Rick Santorum, but absent the religious angle - that is to say, she's not against homosexuals because it's a sin, but straight up because they're icky. She's not opposed to immigration on economic grounds, but because brown people can't really be French. According to her, obviously. On another board, a poster wrote that what Americans were afraid (some) Republicans might believe in their hearts of hearts, she says loud and proud. That's about right.

On the economy though, she's full on fascist - increased nationalizations, protectionist tariffs & regulations, chokehold on immigration (from the current 200.000 down to 10.000), that kind of thing. I don't think any American politician compares. Wants to get us completely out of Europe and back on the Franc too, which in American terms is about as out there as a northern state seceding over having to marginally subsidize the South.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Kobal2

Yeah, I've seen the equation of Le Pen with Ron Paul (and Rick Santorum) a few times over the web, and neither is correct, since neither of them is a 1930s fascist.

She may share her social policies with Rick Santorum, but absent the religious angle - that is to say, she's not against homosexuals because it's a sin, but straight up because they're icky. She's not opposed to immigration on economic grounds, but because brown people can't really be French. According to her, obviously. On another board, a poster wrote that what Americans were afraid (some) Republicans might believe in their hearts of hearts, she says loud and proud. That's about right.

On the economy though, she's full on fascist - increased nationalizations, protectionist tariffs & regulations, chokehold on immigration (from the current 200.000 down to 10.000), that kind of thing. I don't think any American politician compares. Wants to get us completely out of Europe and back on the Franc too, which in American terms is about as out there as a northern state seceding over having to marginally subsidize the South.

And her plans for the reconquest of Greater France? (At a minimum, that of course would include every acre Napoleon and/or Charlemagne ever ruled.)

[Kobal2]

Also Greater Louisiana, from New Orleans to Helena.

Joke aside, oddly enough I don't think she has a rah-rah militarism bent. At least her base doesn't have the para-military streak of similar groups in America (possibly because our gun rights are heavily restricted, and cammies+baseball bat looks simply ridiculous).
Her father might have longed for the days of French Algeria, but I think that particular bit of populism is long dead now.

[BrainGlutton]

Le Pen is refusing to endorse Sarkozy; she says she'll cast a blank ballot on Sunday.

[Fang]

Comparing Le Pen and the Front National to Rick Santorum or Ron Paul is pretty far off track. She represents an authoritarian populist strain of thought which is not a significant part of US discourse (but is a significant component in European right wing parties). Probably the closest you can find is Pat Buchanan. She is anti-immigration, anti-free trade, and anti-globalization. Does not like big government or multinational corporations. Opposes European integration. Socially conservative, economically protectionist, ethnocentric.

[Kobal2]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Le Pen is refusing to endorse Sarkozy; she says she'll cast a blank ballot on Sunday.

And thus she wins twice - she keeps the respect of her base for "keeping it pure" and such, while the insane lengths to which Sarko went to try and legitimize them (as well as gunning for their political positions) for immediate political purposes have done a lot to reduce the stigma of "being FN". I would wager in the next legislative & local elections quite a few UMP voters will reveal their true, no longer shameful colours. Hey, if the President himself thinks the FN is cool after all (and after the "victory of democracy over fascism a mere 10 fucking years ago...), who can argue ?

Damn, but I loathe my country. See, this is why I follow American politics: home politics are just too fucking depressing and rage-inducing, while yours are just entertainingly retarded.

[Kobal2]

Results are in, François Hollande is the winner with ~53% of the votes. Huzzah !

[nudgenudge]

Well done, slightly left-of-centre guy in defeating slightly right-of-centre guy. No doubt it will transform the prospects of France.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by nudgenudge

Well done, slightly left-of-centre guy in defeating slightly right-of-centre guy. No doubt it will transform the prospects of France.

Well, Reuters calls it "a swing to the left at the heart of Europe that could start a pushback against German-led austerity."

[Ximenean]

nm

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Kobal2

And thus she wins twice - she keeps the respect of her base for "keeping it pure" and such, while the insane lengths to which Sarko went to try and legitimize them (as well as gunning for their political positions) for immediate political purposes have done a lot to reduce the stigma of "being FN". I would wager in the next legislative & local elections quite a few UMP voters will reveal their true, no longer shameful colours. Hey, if the President himself thinks the FN is cool after all (and after the "victory of democracy over fascism a mere 10 fucking years ago...), who can argue ?

Damn, but I loathe my country. See, this is why I follow American politics: home politics are just too fucking depressing and rage-inducing, while yours are just entertainingly retarded.

Would you call the results of this election "just too fucking depressing and rage-inducing"?

[Airman Doors, USAF]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Would you call the results of this election "just too fucking depressing and rage-inducing"?

Maybe not now, but when the "pushback against German-led austerity" causes the collapse of the Euro, there will be more than enough depression and rage to go around.

Why someone would think that an election with the potential to send the Euro crisis over the abyss is a good thing is beyond me. But hey, it'll work for me since the US Dollar will benefit from the collapse (should it happen).

[Quartz]

Originally Posted by Kobal2

Results are in, François Hollande is the winner with ~53% of the votes. Huzzah !

I wonder how he's going to get France to pay for everything he's promised.

But I hope he does well.

[nudgenudge]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Well, Reuters calls it "a swing to the left at the heart of Europe that could start a pushback against German-led austerity."

Yes, but whatever changes may occur would have happened under Sarkozy. There's no way out of it.

[Kobal2]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Would you call the results of this election "just too fucking depressing and rage-inducing"?

Yes and no.
I don't think Hollande or his party are going to be a great leap forward or anything of the sort. Nothing's gonna change, everything still remains the same. But I do appreciate the fact that the UMP's loathsome electoral tactics didn't get rewarded. This time.

[Baron Greenback]

Originally Posted by Airman Doors, USAF

Why someone would think that an election with the potential to send the Euro crisis over the abyss is a good thing is beyond me.

I'm not convinced that the French election is going to be the catalyst for the Euro collapse. Today's Greek election on the other hand...it's early days with the counting, but it looks like there is a large backlash against the pro-austerity groupings. And the neo-Nazis (not your typical far-right types like the Tea Party Republicans, but actual Nazi Nazis) Golden Dawn look like they will get seats in parliament. Interesting times.

[furt]

Originally Posted by Airman Doors, USAF

Why someone would think that an election with the potential to send the Euro crisis over the abyss is a good thing is beyond me.

I don't see hardly anyone except politicians currently in office saying the Euro is going to last (I mean, even Krugman seems resigned to it), but nobody wants to be the one to take the blame. I suspect they'll find another couple year's worth of road to kick the can down ...

[Leaper]

Even given that we're just dealing with probabilities right now, the Romney campaign must be very happy, even if this results in longer term betterment for every/anyone down the road, since this introduces the [insert adjective here, anything from "strong" to "unlikely"] possibility of global economic meltdown that can/will be blamed on the incumbent.

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

Originally Posted by Leaper

Even given that we're just dealing with probabilities right now, the Romney campaign must be very happy, even if this results in longer term betterment for every/anyone down the road, since this introduces the [insert adjective here, anything from "strong" to "unlikely"] possibility of global economic meltdown that can/will be blamed on the incumbent.

That was what I was thinking actually. Leftist victories in France and Greece may result in a Republican sweep come November.

[GIGObuster]

Originally Posted by Qin Shi Huangdi

That was what I was thinking actually. Leftist victories in France and Greece may result in a Republican sweep come November.

Uh, it was the left Pasok party in Greece that accepted austerity measures and for that they are headed for defeat, what is happening in France too is the refutation of "just austerity" measures, Don't you wonder who are the ones proposing more austerity measures these days in the USA?

[Kobal2]

Originally Posted by Leaper

Even given that we're just dealing with probabilities right now, the Romney campaign must be very happy, even if this results in longer term betterment for every/anyone down the road, since this introduces the [insert adjective here, anything from "strong" to "unlikely"] possibility of global economic meltdown that can/will be blamed on the incumbent.

I kinda doubt François Hollande's government can manage to completely fuck up the Eurozone economy on their own in the space of five months. But hey, I'm willing to be surprised !

[Leaper]

Originally Posted by GIGObuster

Uh, it was the left Pasok party in Greece that accepted austerity measures and for that they are headed for defeat, what is happening in France too is the refutation of "just austerity" measures, Don't you wonder who are the ones proposing more austerity measures these days in the USA?

Devil's advocate: The American voter won't make that connection if the cause of their anger is their own personal financial hurting.

Originally Posted by Kobal2

I kinda doubt François Hollande's government can manage to completely fuck up the Eurozone economy on their own in the space of five months. But hey, I'm willing to be surprised !

What about them PLUS the Greek results (which admittedly are a little off-topic in this thread)?

[nudgenudge]

Originally Posted by Leaper

Even given that we're just dealing with probabilities right now, the Romney campaign must be very happy, even if this results in longer term betterment for every/anyone down the road, since this introduces the [insert adjective here, anything from "strong" to "unlikely"] possibility of global economic meltdown that can/will be blamed on the incumbent.

Originally Posted by Qin Shi Huangdi

That was what I was thinking actually. Leftist victories in France and Greece may result in a Republican sweep come November

One can only marvel at the ability of Americans to turn the results of an election in a major western country into something that affects them directly. Fuck France, this might count for a few percentage points come November.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by nudgenudge

One can only marvel at the ability of Americans to turn the results of an election in a major western country into something that affects them directly. Fuck France, this might count for a few percentage points come November.

Don't French pols and pundits take the same attitude to American election results?

[Leaper]

Originally Posted by nudgenudge

One can only marvel at the ability of Americans to turn the results of an election in a major western country into something that affects them directly. Fuck France, this might count for a few percentage points come November.

A global economic collapse, by definition, would affect everyone.

[nudgenudge]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Don't French pols and pundits take the same attitude to American election results?

Not really, and I'm not talking about pundits. Just posters in a thread supposedly about the French election. Their first thought is how the result might affect Mitt Romney.

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

There is talk of Sarkozy's party UMP allying with the National Front for the legislative elections there. Hopefully this will not occur-De Gaulle would turn in his grave to learn that his party is making a deal with the devil with the Bitchyites.

[Airman Doors, USAF]

Originally Posted by Leaper

A global economic collapse, by definition, would affect everyone.

It would, and some worse than others, but if the euro (properly capitalized this time) collapsed, countries would be looking for a safe place to put their money. The US Dollar, for all of our economic issues, is still the dominant reserve currency in the world, and I doubt that the Pound Sterling or the Yen would benefit too much given the endless Japanese recession and the UK's strong ties to the EU (the euro notwithstanding). That influx of investment would certainly go a long way to mitigating the effects of a global recession in the US.

[Kobal2]

Originally Posted by Qin Shi Huangdi

There is talk of Sarkozy's party UMP allying with the National Front for the legislative elections there. Hopefully this will not occur-De Gaulle would turn in his grave to learn that his party is making a deal with the devil with the Bitchyites.

Don't know about that. De Gaulle was pretty damn racist himself (see the "Colombay-les-deux-Mosquées" speech), and quite the authoritarian as well. Of course, back then everybody was openly racist and/or antisemite, so...