Yesterday President Macron disolved the National Assembly and called for a snap election on 30 June 2024 (run-offs 7 July 2024). What exactly is his plan? Cohabitation with the far right or far left? This is going to happen in less than 3 weeks!
Macron is a center-left reformist, so he has my nonexistent vote. Neo-neo-neo-fascists or the other kind earn my opposition. My knowledge of French politics is at the near-moron level. Wiki:
On 9 June 2024, shortly after 21:00 CET, Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called for snap parliamentary elections in a national address following exit polls that indicated that the Renaissance party would be significantly eclipsed by the National Rally in votes for France’s European Parliament elections. In his address, he called the rise of nationalism by agitators a threat to France, Europe, and France’s place in the world. He also decried the far right as the “impoverishment of the French people and the downfall of our country”. The first round of elections are scheduled for 30 June, and a second round for 7 July.[3]
National Rally leader Jordan Bardella called the disparity a “stinging disavowal” of Macron, calling for him to dissolve parliament in the wake of the defeat he called “Day 1 of the post-Macron era”.[4] Marine Le Pen and leader of La France Insoumise Jean-Luc Mélenchon celebrated the poll results and welcomed the call for snap elections.[3] Far-left politician François Ruffin called on all leftwing parties, including the Greens to form a “Popular Front” in order to avoid the “worst” outcome.[5]
Presumably he’s gambling on all the not-RN parties to come together in the second round to keep them out - to the ultimate benefit of his party. The left groupings have already started trying to consolidate but have difficulties with their most egocentric headline personality, so maybe Macron can peel off enough of them to form a majority after the second round:
I found this overview of political parties in France:
French far-right extends poll lead as campaign ends
A new OpinionWay poll published by Les Echos newspaper on Friday showed the RN could reach as much as 37% of the popular vote, up two percentage points on its score a week ago.
Macron’s centrist bloc Together party was seen reaching 20%, down by two points from the last publication. The New Popular Front leftwing alliance stood at an unchanged 28% of the vote.
BFM TV, in a different poll compiled by Elabe, calculated that the RN and allies could end up with 260-295 seats in the new parliament - potentially crossing the 289-seat bar for an absolute majority giving them a clear mandate to govern.
So it looks like it was a very big mistake to call this snap election.
Turnout appears to be substantially up on previous first-round legislative elections. France 24 is reporting 65.5%. Which party has attracted previously apathetic voters to turn out for or against them remains to be seen.
Hmm. First round exit polls:
RN (far right) 33.5%
NFP alliance (left parties) 28.1%
Renaissance (Macron’s centrist party) and allies 20.7%
Républicains (mainstream conservatives) 10%
(plus handfuls of other small parties)
https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/politique/legislatives-2024-tous-les-resultats-en-temps-reel
Are there some links I should read to understand that better?
The rest of this is probably all wrong, and I will post expecting to be corrected by those who know wrong.
If the National Rally wins an absolute majority, correct, big mistake. Democracy dies, or at least goes into suspended animation, because Le Pen will change the electoral system to insure her party stays in power for a very long time.
But isn’t a National Rally majority unlikely? News reports imply that, for the runoff, there will only be two candidates in almost all districts. And if I’m a strategic voter who wants to block both Jordan Bardella and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, I’m actually going to vote for the Popular Front on grounds that (a) they have no chance of gaining power and (b) it will block the National Rally from gaining a majority. I’ll do this even if I am center-right and find Bardella a little less poisonous than Mélenchon. So logically, Barella is screwed. Wrong?
If I am correct, and there is going to be a hung parliament, Macron gets to appoint some sort of non-political prime minister who will let Macron continue to run foreign policy. No problem if you aren’t French, and maybe no problem at all? Correct? Totally wrong?
P.S. If the National Rally loses in the way I suggest, is this going to create a lot of resentment so that they are more likely to win it all next time?
There are massive disagreements between Macron and the Popular Front too.
Well Macron can always dissolve the National Assembly again after 12 months ( maybe sooner if the government looses a confidence vote?). I’m not sure how much power the Senate has or how many senators National Rally has, but the President of the Republic doesn’t have a veto.
It’s still early, but it appears France may have dodged a bullet.
There’s a good spreadsheet being updated here that is publicly viewable:
The centre-left alliance will form the new government but if it doesn’t work Le Pen and her ilk will be the ones who can pick up the pieces.
For the time being it’s bad news for Putin and there cannot be another election for at least a year.
MAGAs on Twitter already calling it rigged of course…
Is there a center left alliance, at least yet?
The Leftist alliance of The New Popular Front and Macron’s Renaissance party were united with a common foe (and boy what change in fortune from first to third) but can they find common ground to govern from?
I think it would go in order New Popular Front and if not successful then Renaissance trying to get enough of them to break ranks and join.
The spreadsheet says all 577 seats have now been called. New Popular Front has just under a third of the seats. Possible coalition arithmetic looks very difficult to me, but I do not know much about French politics.
Is there are breakdown of how each of the four constituent parts of thr New Popular Front did?
Here’s a final outline:
This is an excellent (and lengthy) article summarizing the current situation and the prospects for how a government might emerge. Recommended reading for those curious about what happens next.
Short version: there’s no clear, obvious path forward, and things are about to get really messy and difficult.
Thank you for that. Very helpful.
Yes, thank you, that’s really helpful!
What are the major policy position differences between the centrists and the left? Is there room for negotiation between the two?
Would Macron agreeing to reverse the pension age thing be enough? (That seems to have a big thing to the Left.)
I’m observing from across the border, so I hesitate to offer an opinion and would defer to someone actually in-country. I can tell you, though, that most people who call themselves Left loathe Macron and I’m doubtful about any deal being reached through simple horse-trading.