2024 French legislative election

That’s what I was afraid of–the goddamned egos in politics getting in the way of making things better.

Can a fresh election be called sooner than 12 months if the government looses a confidence vote?

No. Constitutionally, a new election cannot be held within a year. Just gotta gut it out.

One of the things to bear in mind is that both Ensemble and NFP are themselves coalitions so it’s not like you have to deal between only the two topline leaders. So yeah, it’s going to be a gloriously French mess.

I took the Politico.eu article and made a table:

Seats Seats (%) Votes (%)
Popular Front 188 32.6% 26.3%
Ensemble 161 27.9% 24.7%
Republicans 48 8.3% 6.2%
National Rally 142 24.6% 37.1%
Other 38 6.6% 5.6%
Total 577 100.0% 99.9%

To block the fascists, the Popular Front unified and made deals with Ensemble and small parties to drop out of races and not play spoiler. The Republican anti-fascist right made no such deals with National Rally, so the right of center vote was split. Or so I understand.

Note that NR and Les Republicans got only 42.7% of the vote combined and that Ensemble wants nothing to do with NR. Still, 37.1% is still worrying: the fight isn’t over.

(The pedant in me wants to point out that National Rally should be abbreviated RN because in French the adjective follows the noun: their name is Rassemblement National. But I’ve been sloppy with it myself and it’s probably confusing to English-first readers, so I will acknowledge my pedant by posting this and then leave it alone.)

Why Macron did not wait until at least after Les Olympiques confuses me.

Oh God, yes. Can you imagine the Parisians going into Full French Freakout Mode, barricades and all, during the Olympics? It’s going to be a fun summer.

Macron may have hoped that the short timeline for the elections will prevent the various left parties (LFI, PS, Greens, PC) to unite since they had bitter infighting during the European election. Then his party could appear on 1st or 2nd place with a RN candidate and call to win a “republican front” on 2nd turn.
Unfortunately for him, the leftists put aside their (many) differences and supported one candidate in each circumscription.
The end result is an assembly with no absolute majority. The only way is to form a coalition, but each party has deep and irreconcilable views on almost every subject. Blockade will be at every corner for the coming year.

I’m not sure that was that unfortunate. The alternative which seemed likely a week prior was not better.

I appreciate your perspective. From my ignorant view across the water and thousands of miles away, the only truly irreconcilable differences are between fascists, those who demand an immediate state takeover of the means of production, and everyone else. Combined, the Popular Front and Ensemble have 51% of the vote and 60.5% of the seats. Les Republicans have another 8.3% of the seats. That’s not including the 6.6% of “Other” parties (some left, some right). I understand that this is suppose to be (and probably will be) very hard, but it really shouldn’t be. Then again, lots of things have happened in the US which wouldn’t if adults ran the show. I’m not dissing the proud French nation.

Meanwhile, Ukraine fights on and the world cooks.

Well, the Left (NFP and allies) could use 180 + 12(leftists) + 5 (without etiquette) + 10 (regionalisms) = 207 maxi
Macronists could use 158 + 5 (without etiquette) + 2 (centrists) + 10 (regionalisms) = 175 maxi
Les Républicains could use 67 + 5 (without etiquette) +10 (regionalisms) = 82 maxi.
RN could use 143 + 10 (regionalisms) = 153 maxi.
I put the very maximum reachable with those that will accept an alliance.
None could reach the 289 needed to have a majority.
But any government will fall at the first vote, as each group (and many sub-groups) have different views on any subject and have a longstanding tradition of not negotiating anything…

Today, the chief of LR called to have a PM of his party…the least numerous… :roll_eyes: ; PC, EELV and Ensemble each declared that the DOM-TOM deputies were on their side :roll_eyes: and one RN deputies called for a resign of Macron and presidential elections :roll_eyes:

An Israeli Minister was apparently in favor of the National Rally winning, which just seems weird to me.

That is freaking bizarre.

These days, the extreme right has swapped old-school anti-semitism for anti-Muslim/Arab hysteria.

Chikli is very right wing - an Israel MAGAT - and is a big believer in the “international right” (as if international solidarity were not antithetical to the very concept of conservatism). In other words, he supports Le Pen for the same reason the Trumpists do.

He also believes that the European far-right currently hates Muslims more than it hates Jews, and therefore the enemy of his enemy is his friend.

The fact that he holds these beliefs is not surprising; the fact that he’s speaking them in public is another sign of the slow disintegration of the Netanyahu coalition, breakdown in government discipline, and utter absence of coherent Israeli foreign policy. But that’s a different thread.

He needs to read these:
29. The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy. No more. No less.

Fascist love other fascists. How is this surprising?