Once the voting is over and any close calls are adjudicated (whether or not Angus King has decided who he’s going to caucus with by then), how many Senate seats do you think the GOP will have, going into 2013?
Doing it as ‘how many Senate seats the GOP will have’ means we don’t have to worry about whether Angus King is treated as an independent or a Democrat.
The GOP currently holds 47 Senate seats. Give your answer in the poll, and feel free to opine or not in the thread.
I put down 46: I think the GOP will lose one seat, net.
If you look at RCP’s Senate page, the GOP starts off with 42 seats, really: 37 that aren’t up for grabs, and another 5 that aren’t being meaningfully contested.
In addition to that, I think they’ll win Nebraska (because Bob Kerrey is a crappy excuse for a Dem candidate, not that Nebraska would be an easy lift for any Dem), and 3 of the 9 races characterized as ‘tossup’ or ‘leans GOP.’ And that’ll be it. The Dems, Bernie Sanders, and Angus King will win everything else.
I’m on 47.
My gut feeling is 49, but I’m marking it down as 48.
Dems will win the currently close races in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Wisconsin and Missouri. Republicans will win in Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, and Nevada. King wins in Maine. If I am using my fingers and toes correctly, that gets Republicans to 48.
Can I vote for 48.5?
49, maybe 50. 51 is a possibility (I still half-believe that my home state will actually elect Mr. Legitimate Rape).
I think Ravenman is pretty much on target. I think 48 will be the magic number, plus or minus 1. A net loss of 1 seat when there are so many more Ds than Rs up for grabs this time I think is as optimistic as I dare get. I’d love to be proven wrong (by the real number of Rs being lower)
Shit, I read the question wrong and voted the number of seats I think the Dems will have, so flip one of the 52 votes to 48.
I’m going with 47.
Looks like I’m at the optimistic end so far, from a Dem perspective. Certainly if the FSM had come down from the Great Colander in the Sky two months ago, and offered me a 48-or-take-your-chances deal, I’d have taken 48 in a heartbeat. Hell, I’m still amazed we have as many legitimate pickup opportunities as we do; I think I was hoping for 2 (MA and NV), and we’ve got those plus AZ and IN, and ME (sorta). But I think things are shifting our way.
I put 48 because that’s what Nate Silver has right now. I’m sure there’s still some good flux in those numbers, particularly if the RNC decides to abandon Mittens and start spending all of their cash on Congress.
Too many.
Call me a cock-eyed optimist, but I say 45. I don’t have any particular insight, I just think some of the close races may flip to the Democrats as a very small anti-GOP backlash.
I’m going with 49 here but hoping for less. Not that it makes a speck of difference whether it’s 59, 41, or anything in between (isn’t the modern senate just great?).
I care, but I don’t know.