That’s what my instinct was for the Bears, but both of these drafts have WRs going so heavy in the first round that there won’t be anyone left in the second round worth the pick. Most people thought Nicks, Britt and Robiskie would be mid to late second rounders but they all might go in the top 35 picks.
I’d love to see a historic breakdown because it seems to me that WR is the worst position, by far, to take in the first round. If you need a receiver really badly, just trade your first round pick for a veteran, because the odds of getting an impact WR in the first round seems vanishingly small.
First-round wideouts, starting with 2000:
Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress, Travis Taylor, Sylvester Morris, R.J. Soward. Ick. 1 Pro Bowler, 4 busts.
2001:
David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Santana Moss, Freddie Mitchell, Reggie Wayne. Much better… 2 bona fide stars, one star derailed by alcohol (Robinson), 3 busts. I didn’t realize that Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss came out from Miami in the same draft, incidentally… bet the Jets would like that one back.
2002:
Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Javon Walker. Nothing to see here; one star, two busts.
2003:
Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson, Bryant Johnson. Again, one (super)star, two busts.
2004:
Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Rashaun Woods. Mixed bag again… Three stars (Fitz, Williams, Evans), two solid pros (Jenkins, Williams), one bust (Woods). Michael Clayton is a bit of an odd duck; had 100 catches and 1200 yards as a rookie and hasn’t done a damn thing since.
2005:
Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Roddy White. We’ll call Edwards a star based on his excellent 2007, and Roddy White is definitely a star based on '07 and '08. Matt Jones appeared to have turned the corner this year. Clayton is a solid pro. Williamson and Williams are obviously busts.
11 Pro Bowlers out of a possible 30. So, not far off from the numbers for quarterbacks.
RNATB did a good summary, and I’d say the WR is pretty much just as dicey a proposition as any other position. People under-estimate how many busts there are at every position in the first round. QBs, WRs and RBs are high profile and easy for the casual fan to notice when they bust (not to mention readily available and easy to compare stats) so people always think they crap out at a higher rate than anyone else, it’s probably not true, it’s just perception.
What really determines who your should take in the first round is not the likelihood of a bust in the first round, but the likelihood of a bust in rounds 3-7. The harder it becomes to find a contributor at a given position in the late rounds the more important it is you get that position in the first couple rounds. Those guys might bust at a troubling rate too, but a 1 in 3 chance is better than a 1 in 100 chance.
Teams rarely draft Centers and Guards in the first round because there is a long, rich history of finding legitimate stars in the middle rounds at those positions. RB is starting to become a similar situation because it’s so common for 3rd round and later picks being successful. Conversely it’s uncommon for QBs, DTs, CBs and WRs to come from the later rounds and excel, hence the tradition of those guys going early.
As a Colts fan, I’m sick and tired of watching the defense get sliced and diced by even mediocre running backs. If they could pick up a defensive tackle Raji (doubtful) or Jerry (a little more realistic) would be great.
After that, maybe a wide receiver seeing as Harrison may be gone or possibly a center if they lose Saturday.
Lotta people seem to be speculating that the Colts will target Harvin in the first round if he’s still available. He’d probably be a great fit with them, but I wonder if they can pass on defense.
But one – maybe two – of your Pro Bowlers (Fitz and “Bullseye” Burris) are ego problems that hurt their team overall. Burris made a stupid mistake that crippled a team which might have gone all the way this year. I don’t know the whole story, but the Fitzgerald/Boldin feud could cost the Cardinals another shot at the Super Bowl. WR’s are notorious for being primadonnas, especially the high performance players, so the upside/downside just doesn’t seem worth it to me.
If I were a coach I’d be looking at guys who are in the top ten at their position, and who have a reputation for being quiet team players. Unless I was coaching Dallas - then I’d be looking for the biggest all-sizzle-and-a-little-steak loudmouth cokehead I could find, and if the list was too long I’d sort it by firearm ownership and nightclub attendance records.
This is idiotic. First off, there is no issue with Fitz. He’s been nothing but a class act. Boldin is just pissed because he’s underpaid. That has nothing to do with Fitz and there is no feud. Big picture, while WRs have a habit of being pains in the ass, it has nothing to do with drafting them early. Steve Smith is a prick who got suspended this year for cheap shotting teammate was a 3rd round pick. Ocho Cinco was a 2nd rounder. Head case Brandon Marshall was a 4th rounder, hell even TO was a 3rd rounder.
So, unless you intend to field a WR-less offense I’m not sure how not drafting them early helps you out. I suppose you could take the Bears strategy and ignore the position completely, and they do have the luxury of not having a WR head case or primadonna, but I’m not sure that’s a winning strategy.
Point taken; like I said, I only heard peripheral stuff about Boldin/Fitz. I’m in a pickle this year because I really want the Ravens to get some new weapons at WR, but I don’t want them to pick up a headcase (and I’d rather not get Boldin if he’s going to be a whiner). On the other hand, if you get a headcase you can always bench him or trade him.
So it’s the classic draft dilemma : 2nd place in the division doesn’t buy your coach anything but a plane ticket to Hawai’i, and it leaves you near the end of the line at the draft. This post at PFR really sums up that weird upside-vs.-downside question, at least for draft picks. I guess the only good news is that picks 25-50 tend to have more pleasant surprises.
Has anyone looked at the performance of WRs who get picked up “used” (as free agents, for example)? Obviously T.O. is in this class – several times – but maybe teams are safer getting their WRs after they’re broken in a little bit. On the one hand a team knows what they’re getting into… but on the other hand they have to pay full market value.
Look at it this way: he’s single-handedly carried the Cards for five years, been massively underpaid the whole time, and is not even the highest-paid guy on the team at his position.
I find it HI-larious that you are worried about a primadonna going to the Ravens.
Your worries are unfounded. Teams with “problem” WRs: 2008 Cards, 2008 Steelers, 2007 Pats, 2007 Giants, 2004 Eagles, 2003 Panthers, 2002 Bucs, 2002 Raiders, 2000 Ravens…do the math.
Who was the problem wideout on the 2002 Raiders?
That’s a really good argument, though.
Jerry Porter, though it was before the feud with Al Davis really got pronounced.
ESPN’s Todd McShay Mock Draft III
He seems to fall somewhere between the previous two mock drafts posted, neither WRs or OT were heavily clustered or over-emphasized. He has Kenny Britt out of the first round and projected somewhere around the middle of the second round, which is mich lower than most people project. He’s got Heyward-Bey going to the Bears which is what I think will happen and is what most of the local guys are projecting, especially with the Bears signing a FA OT this week. Stafford going number one to the Lions and Curry going to the Cassel led Chiefs, makes sense but if the Lions pass on Stafford he might slide out of the top ten, the next team I see after the Lions who might take him is the 49ers. Crabtree falling to the Raiders and Al Davis creaming his tracksuit. Beanie Wells goes to the Eagles and Moreno going to the Cards, two perfect fits for each, it’s almost too nice to expect.
I highly doubt the 49ers will take a QB with their #10 pick. We can either draft a project later or wait til next year when the class looks to be deeper at QB.
It’s probably not likely, but if Stafford is there at 10 and you have a unproven guy like Hill with a new staff and a new OC, I bet they would spend a lot of time considering it. At 10 he’d be a really good value.
Are you talking about Boldin here?
If you are, how can you justify this statement? Boldin has exactly two seasons in the last six in which he was better than Fitzgerald, and one of them was because Fitzgerald wasn’t even in the NFL yet (and I’m being generous, 2006 is the only year in which Boldin was “better” than Fitz, but Fitz had more touchdowns and played in 3 fewer games). Not only did he not carry the Cardinals, but he’s not the highest paid player at his position on his team because he isn’t the best one on the team, and has never been. Are you allowed to be angry about not being the highest paid if you aren’t the best at your position on your own team?
Agree it’s an overstatement to say that Boldin carried the team for 6 years but I think your analysis is wrong.
Boldin was basically the only player on the team in 2003. In 2004 he was much more productive than Fitz on a per-game basis. In 2005 Boldin and Fitz had identical stats but Boldin did it in two fewer games. In 2006 Boldin was equal to Fitz on a per-game basis and played all 16 games. In 2007 Fitz surpassed Boldin for the first time though Boldin was still excellent when healthy, and in 2008 they were again equal on a per-game basis. I wager that in 2008, had Boldin not been hurt, he’d have once again been better statistically than Fitz since he wasn’t a 100% for several of the games this year.
Yes, Boldin has been hurt a lot, but he’s always played in at least 10 games. He’s always played hurt, even when the team was perpetually terrible. He has been every bit as productive as Fitz and that’s saying something, up until this year it was Boldin that commanded the opponents best coverage guy and got all the double teams and he was still at least as productive as Fitz.
In Fitz’s 5 year career he’s already earned $37,898,820 and is due another $23M before his next two years are up (and you can bet he’ll get every penny since that’s probably a bargain). Boldin has been paid a paltry $19,498,610 in his entire 6 years! That’s only two million more than what Fitz got in 2008, and will get in 2009.
You can argue if Fitz or Boldin are better in any given year, but it’s a narrow margin if you adjust for injuries. Most people agree that they are 1A and 1B. The fact that Fitz has already earned double what Boldin has and will triple it when his current contract is up is insane and Boldin has every right to demand similar compensation.
The Packers getting Everette Brown would be fine with me. Not great. Not horrible. Just fine.
One thing about that mock draft that struck me is that Malcolm Jenkins (the pre-40 yard dash near unanimous #1 CB prospect) has fallen to 14. I think it’s just silly that a 4.55 time in the 40, even though you had the fastest 3 cone drill, and looked great in the workouts, will cost you so much. Once again, I think McShay is over-valuing straight line speed and de-valuing actual performance over a long period of time.
Kinda like Heyward-Bey going at 18. I’d love for the Bears to get Troy Williamson… I mean Yamon Figurs … umm, I mean Heyward Bey, there.
Injuries are becoming an issue. Monroe and Crabtree now have some questions. I think Pro Days are going to become a bit more important this year.
To be fair, Heywood-Bey was in the top 10 WRs for the 3-cone drill, 20-yard drill, broad jump and vertical jump, so it is not like his 4.30 40 was the only thing he had going for him at the Combine. He may end up being a bust, but he is at least a bust that had a good showing across the board at the combine. We will see if his pro day changes anything, but I think he will mostly stand on those numbers now that he is rising so fast.