2006 US Open at Winged Foot: Another Massacre in the making

Cafe Society
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[QUOTE=Ellis Dee]
I’ve seen a lot of commentary about Phil’s meltdown today, and I am stunned that not a single pundit has made a reference to Tin Cup.

Phil played Kevin Costner’s role to perfection. And the movie meltdown was set at the US Open; this seems too perfect for comparison, and yet not one mention.

I say good for Phil. Grab your sack, play like a man, take your lumps.
[/QUOTE]

I was calling Tin Cup all day at work, but i am not a pundit. I should have said so here, too. He got what he earned, when the schadenfreude hit the fan. WTG Phil!

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Re. Tiger: Missing a cut at a major is a huge blow for him, and he’s not getting any younger. If he were 18, I could imagine him recovering and coming back stronger than ever. Right now, realistically, the best anyone can hope for is a return to consistent top-10. I’d be astonished if he ever won two majors in a row again, much less four.

Sorry, folks. He may still be high up, but the peak is past.

Re. Phil: I’ve looked through all the possibilities, and frankly, I’m not convinced any one of them would’ve been a vast improvement over hitting the driver. If he plays it “safe”, he has a long iron or fairway wood to a green with almost no bite. If he punches out, he still has to hit at least a medium iron, and now the pressure’s on to find a good spot on the green and do no worse than two-putt (neither of which is within a par 5 of a sure thing). If it comes to a playoff, Ogilvy has all the momentum and nothing to lose.

Plain and simple, he needed to make good shots, and he didn’t. Wasn’t the first; won’t be the last.

And I refuse to hate someone based on what this magazine article said or what that rumor is.

Re. Monty: Oh yeah. Ahem…why isn’t anyone ripping him for hitting a perfect drive on 18th and getting a double bogey?? This guy’s been been accorded all the respect of a tackling dummy his entire career, and he gets a pass on this? I don’t sports anymore. :slight_smile:

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Get. Get sports anymore. (And don’t get me started on Barry Bonds…)

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If he uses a long iron, it is true he would have another long iron to the green but what is the worst that can happen? He ends up missing the green and by 15 yards and bogeys? That isn’t ideal but the worst case scenario isn’t as bad. I dunno, maybe it’s a hindsight thing but I can remember yelling at the TV when he pulled out his driver with almost the same scenario.

For me, it’s because I feel sorry for Monty. His iron shot into the green had to have been all nerves. It’s not like he picked a bad club or made a bad decision, he just made a bad swing.

Phil’s f##kup was largely avoidable if he had just taken a deep breath and realised that up until that point he had only hit 2 of 13 fairways all day and that maybe being careful was the way to go in this case. That’s reason I give Monty a pass anyways.

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[QUOTE=brownie55]

You have proof he married two women?

You don’t make a Tiger by ignoring your first family, unless you are saying Tiger was not in the first. Please, say on…
[/QUOTE]

No proof, but just read a mediocre book that purported to address it in some detail. The Wicked Game IIRC (which I don’t recommend).

I don’t recall the specifics, but according to this author, there were irregularities concerning the ending of Earl’s 1st marriage and the beginning of his second. Apparently Earl and his 1st wife were experiencing difficulties , possibly separated, but not officially divorced, when Earl met Tilda during an overseas tour of duty. Seems as tho Earl was somewhat less than completely straight with both women concerning his marital status and intentions at that time. And divorce proceedings apparently were not entirely complete when he married wife #2. I recall different states and the legitimacy of a quickie Mexican divorce which Earl obtained (without telling wife #1) figuring in there somewhere. Coupled with Earl regularly being vague or giving incorrect info concerning relevant dates in repeated interviews. So it wasn’t as tho he carried on protracted relations with 2 separate families at the same time. But in my mind, suggests something other than a great deal of virtue.

Add in that he has 2 or 3 kids from his 1st marriage, with whom he had essentially no relations. In his book Raising a Tiger, I believe he referred to them as something along the lines of a “practice family.”

And for several years before his death, I believe he and wife #2 maintained separate residences in different states.

Nothing to take a jot away from Tiger’s greatness. But - in my mind - makes Nike’s sappy Dad’s day commercials a little less attractive…

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Shoulda clarified - Tiger was Earl’s sole child from marriage #2.

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I don’t think using the driver was all that bad. He’d played driver all week. He’d played driver all day. On the 18th, you don’t think “oh, I’ll take the bogey and play the playoff”.

However, after squanking one onto the tent, then I think he should have started thinking “on in 3, have a run at it, get out with a 5 at worse”.

The way he played his second shot, it was probably something like

10% chance of a 4
50% chnace of a 5
40% chance of a 6

Whereas if he’d played it safe, it probably moved to

5% chance of a 4
80% chance of a 5
15% chance of a 6

I’m kind of pulling those numbers out of my butt, but you get the point. . .his odds of making the 6 went up way more than his odds of making the 4 by not playing it safe.

Second shot was the fool shot.

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[QUOTE=Trunk]

The way he played his second shot, it was probably something like

10% chance of a 4
50% chnace of a 5
40% chance of a 6

Whereas if he’d played it safe, it probably moved to

5% chance of a 4
80% chance of a 5
15% chance of a 6

[/QUOTE]

I would tweak the numbers a bit thusly:

The way he played his second shot, it was probably something like

20% chance of a 4 (those guys are great, and do the phenomenal regularly)
30% chance of a 5 (certain areas around the green were so penal, that just missing the green could make 6 a possibility.)
50% chance of a 6 (taking a whack at it gived the possibility of hitting a tree and staying is jail, or missing the green in a bad position either short, long, left, or right. For example, if he had hit his second shot into the trap as he hit on #3, barring a very nice one putt, he would still score 6.)

Whereas if he’d played it safe, it probably moved to

40% chance of a 4 (As I recall, he was just over 200 yards out on a decent lie, with an angle to the fairway. All he needs to do is pick a yardage for the short iron he wants to hit. Say 140-150 for a full wedge. He was hitting his short irons well all day, and Johnny Miller kept saying that it was a reasonably easy green - especially with a short iron. 40% up and down might be a little high, but I repeat, these guys are good!)
55% chance of a 5 (wedge and 2 putts is essentially a lock. It would be an astounding choke for him to miss the green with a wedge-9I, or hit it to where he would 3 jack it. Sure, Monty choked, but he was 170 yds out, and winning a major was uncharted territoriy for him).*
5% chance of a 6 (Realistically, I’d put it lower than that. I think I would bet my entire net worth on Phill getting up and down in 3 for bogey from under 150 yards out in the fairway. Not saying it isn’t possible, just very improbable.)

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I skewed my numbers after seeing Monty’s approach (which was a choke), but moreso Ogilvy’s approach. Ogilvy hit a great second shot into that green and still wound up needing to make a great up-and-down to save par.

If you didn’t get it over that “shoulder”, you were screwed.

Either way, we agree. It was that second shot that was the real dunce move.

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Exactly. You have to know when to reduce the odds of a double bogey instead of focusing on making par.

Although we should remember that Monty made double from the fairway on 18. Still, Phil’s short game is 2nd to none, so it’s hard to imagine him getting a double from that situation.