Virginia’s pretty far in the bag for Obama by now. If he loses that, he’s in for a long night, I agree, but I think it’ll be called for him fairly early. North Carolina is a tossup, like Indiana and perhaps Florida, but I don’t think he needs either of those states. I’ve actually said a few times that Obama may win without Ohio and Florida - right now they’re both leaning his way, Ohio moreso than Florida.
Basically, it’s Obama’s night if Indiana, North Carolina and Georgia go his way, or are close. He’s in trouble if Pennsylvania gets tight, coupled with long waits in Ohio or Florida. I think those are the early “tells” this year. I don’t think it’s going to be close enough that it comes down to anywhere - I think you’ll see fairly early that Obama is cruising to a win. But if it comes down to anywhere, it’s probably not Virginia.