The Sun-Times has broken down the current Bears who are impending free agents following the season in this excellent blog post. All in all, the article is well done, comprehensive and I agree with just about all of it.
Nonetheless, I feel like I need to add my 2 cents. The original author sorted the players in question in alphabetical order, I’ll change tack and sort by how I rank them in priority for the team in 2011. My first impression after looking at the list is to note how good of a job the Bears have done making sure few difference makers will be able to test the market this season, that provides stability. For how much I hate Jerry Angelo, he’s a liar and an atrocious talent evaluator in both players and staff/scouts, he is a good business man and tends to always sign savvy contracts that keep both player and team satisfied.
**Olin Kreutz: **He’s a long, long ways from the most talented player in this list and the guy can be a liability on the field from a skill standpoint. He gets overpowered and misses too many assignments for a player of his experience. Nonetheless, his intangibles make him critical for this team. He’s the leader of the embattled offensive line and their youth makes his leadership and line calls very important. Offensive lines need to play together and gel and they need Kreutz around to continue the growth process of these guys.
The Bears essentially have no one at Center behind him and haven’t developed the position at all. That makes resigning him absolutely crucial even if they draft his eventual replacement in this draft. I’m very much hoping the Bears can take Mike Pouncey in this draft assuming his stock rises the way his brother’s did last year and having Kreutz around for a year of grooming and insurance would be fantastic. Kreutz is a team captain and locker room leader also which has a difficult to quantify value, but everyone in the know seems to think it’s very important.
Kreutz is raking in something like $4M this year which is really high for a Center, hopefully with his diminishing skills he’ll resign for a back-loaded 2 or 3 year deal that saves the Bears some real coin. He’s obviously more valuable to the Bears than anyone else so this deal should get done.
Anthony Adams: Adams is the best player in this list and the guy that’ll probably be the toughest to keep. DTs are pure gold in the NFL and with his ability as both a 4-3 DT and 3-4 NT he’ll be hunted by about everyone in the league who’s been paying attention. He’s not Suh or anything but he’s a reliable as they come and he’s a key factor in the Bears resurgent run defense. Being strong in the middle is very important for the Bears and Adams isn’t really a penetrating 3 technique like Harris is supposed to be but he eats up blockers and solidifies us against short yardage. Long story short Adams has taken the crown from Idonije as the most valuable Bear that hardly anyone outside of Chicago knows about.
The Bears might have to think about parting ways with Tommie Harris or renegotiating his contract and that will be critical in freeing up the money on defense to sign a guy like Adams. If the market for him is as hot as I think it will be it’ll be tough for them to pay Peppers, Harris and Adams unless Harris takes a pay cut that brings him into line with his actual worth. I’m not optimistic, but I hope the Bears choose to keep Adams at 40-50% the cost of Harris if it comes down to choosing one or the other.
Danieal Manning: Manning is a little bit of an enigma and it’s unclear what the market for a player like him will be. He’s underachieved as a CB and still makes too many mental errors at SS. That said, he’s got sick athletic ability, is reasonably durable and can play all 5 DB roles in this scheme fairly well. The Bears assuredly would want him back especially since he’s been starting solidly at SS and has some developing left to do, but because of the variety of things he is able to do might have teams willing to overpay him based on potential upside.
The aspect that sets Manning apart is his contributions on Special Teams. The Bears value Special Teams more than any team in the league so this will not be lost on them. If not for Devin Hester, Manning could very well be the NFC’s Pro Bowl representative at KR. That Hester scares opposing kickers so much actually makes Manning more effective because he actually gets returnable kicks when Hester is resting and coverage units relax a bit. In addition to his return skills he’s also an elite gunner when he’s not starting on Defense. All these factors make it likely the Bears will try very hard to bring him back, the only question is how much it will cost them. Hopefully his inconsistency in his primary Defensive roles will keep his value down in the eyes of opposing teams.
Corey Graham: Graham is a popular guy with Bears coaches and Lovie is a DB coach at heart. Additionally, like Manning, he’s a stellar special teamer. Can the Bears afford to sign two DBs who earn their stripes on special teams first and aren’t locked into starting on defense? Is Graham a long term replacement for Tillman if and when the wheels come off? Has Zach Bowman’s crazy skills yet disappointing play made Graham more or less valuable? These are questions I don’t know. Of course the questions that matters most might be 1) Do the Bears have to choose between Manning and Graham, and 2) Has either player been noticed by other teams?
The Bears have, contrary my expectations from a year ago, actually developed a lot of depth in the secondary without spending a lot of money. They still lack a real difference maker but that’s somewhat inherent in Lovie’s scheme. Whether they can keep it all is a real question but the number of options is heartening.
Nick Roach, Pisa Tinoisamoa, Brian Iwuh: These 3 guys need to be grouped together. It’s unclear which is the most valuable and which is the most likely to be back. The team is loaded at LB but I’m not sure any of these guys really project as permanent starters. I love the Bears depth and these 3 guys have all contributed nicely when called upon but I don’t think any of them is likely to take a step to the next level. You need players like this, but you can’t throw money at them and you can’t clog your roster with too many of them.
Tinoisamoa is probably the most talented of the 3 but also the one who probably should not be back. He’s old and getting older, and is constantly injured. Ironically he’s probably the most likely to be back because he knows the system so well and is generally liked by Lovie. I suspect he won’t get offers from many other teams and if the Bears are done with him retirement might be his next option. Of course that also means the Bears might land him cheap. We’ll see.
Roach has played quite a bit in relief of both Tinoisamoa and Briggs and is almost always in the right position. I’m a bit lower on him than most because of his physical limitations but he’s a Northwestern guy and fan favorite. I’d be happy to have him return on the cheap but I don’t want him giving the team an excuse to neglect the position in the draft.
Iwuh is a feel good story and another special teamer who the coaches love. Unlike Roach he might actually have a higher ceiling than where he’s at now and seems to really thrive in this scheme. He’s currently overpaid for what he is and that he seems to be at home on the weak side behind Briggs makes one wonder if he’ll be looking to start elsewhere. It’s unclear how well he’d play on the strong side if he want to compete with the other 2 guys for a starting role.
It’s good to have too many options, but I feel like the Bears need to get younger and more dynamic through the draft at the position. Lets hope they aren’t content with this group.
Rashied Davis: Here we go again, another special teamer getting attention. Davis is a frustrating example of what the Bears personnel decisions lead to. They seem to stick with low upside guys who work hard and contribute on special teams. Because of this loyalty and focus on the 3rd phase they tend to lack developmental guys with high upside. They’ve always used middle and late round picks on guys with an eye to special teams first and offense or defense second. As a result players like Adrian Peterson, Rashied Davis, Brian Iwuh, Garrett Wolfe and Trumaine McBride get drafted/signed and hold roster spots in lieu of players who actually could develop into Pro Bowl gems that seem to make or break teams. This is the core reason why the Bears have the leagues best Special Teams year in and out, but also why they have one of the shallowest RB and WR groups. It seems to serve us better on defense where those depth players can contribute more, but one day when Tillman, Urlacher and Briggs are gone we’ll be wishing we’d rolled the dice on a high upside guy.
Back to the point, I like Rashied, he’s a gamer and might deserve more reps on offense but he’s not a clear upgrade over anyone else out there. He’s been clinging to the fringe of the roster for a long time. I can’t imagine he’ll get much of a look from anyone else or command much of a salary, but if we hang onto the likes of Manning, Roach, Iwuh and Graham we can’t waste another roster spot on a marginal player at a position where we are so weak. In Davis’s case it’s not the money, it’s the roster spot that’s so valuable.
Brad Maynard, Desmond Clark, Todd Collins: Here’s the old guy group that have overstayed their welcome. All three can still play and Clark and Maynard at least will command interest from other teams. None really fit into the Bears long term plans though. Clark hasn’t even suited up most of the season and Collins wasn’t even in training camp this year. Maynard is the guy that I’m probably out of line with the consensus on. I think he may be the highest paid punter in the league and while he’s effective he’s certainly not elite. He helps the Bears control field position but he shanks far too many punts and his directional kicking is usually too cautious. I’m fine with those attributes in a young, big legged youngster at the league minimum, not so much with a veteran with a $1.25M cap figure who would probably demand more with a hefty signing bonus next year. Generally I’m opposed to drafting specialists, but if you’re faced with paying an aging vet a league high salary for middling work it’s probably worth burning a 6th round pick on a top punter.
Clark is gone and won’t be back. That’s really not a doubt. I wish him well and he’s been treated shabbily, but he’s not as good as some in the Chicago media would lead you to believe. Plus he made a hell of a lot of money for some sub par production. Collins might be back as a backup because Martz likes him. I’m not sure I want either guy back frankly, and while Martz is probably a forgone conclusion let’s hope he can find a backup for Cutler who wasn’t in the retirement home 6 months ago.
Josh Bullocks, Rod Wilson, Garrett Wolfe: The don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out group. None contributed or provided any upside. Wolfe was a waste of a pick when they took him and that he’s stayed on this roster for this long is an embarrassment. Wilson was brought in for depth and emergency help on defense. He played special teams but never stood out. A rookie would be more valuable. Bullocks couldn’t hang in New Orleans and he can’t hang here. I suppose of these three he’s the one that can make a case to stay based on special teams play and physical gifts, but lets hope they never have to rely on him as a defensive player. I suppose if both Manning and Graham get poached he’d be fine as a guy to bring back to compete in camp next year. I’m pretty sure none of these guys will draw interest elsewhere, lets hope the Bears can find better players around the league and in the draft to force these guys to the streets.
All in all, the Bears are in a sound position. Aside from these potential free agents there are a few veterans who may be cap casualties. Tommie Harris, Greg Olsen, Brandon Manumaleuna, Chester Taylor are probably the leading candidates. Harris would sting but he’s badly overpaid, Olsen should be much better than he is but he’s been progressing as a blocker. Still, Kellen Davis can give you 90% of his work for half the price. The two newcomers have sucked hard and the Bears should probably cut their losses and find a traditional H-back and speedster through the draft and send them packing.
