2010 NFC North Discussion Thread

The Game Room
1

Last year I started what seemed to be a nicely engaging NF North thread, so here I go again. Last year I gave a lengthy review, but this year I am not sure I am in the loop enough to do the same. Nonetheless here are my thoughts and a jumping off point for others to discuss.

DISCLAIMER: I am a Packer fan. I hat with the heat of a thousand suns the Vikings and Bears. And the Lions bother me, too.

QUARTERBACKS: 1) Aaron Rodgers; 2) Brett Favre; 3) Jake Cutler; 4) Matthew Stafford.

Statistically Favre and Rodgers were very similar last year, except for Rodgers superior running ability. Rodgers played behind a tissue paper offensive line for most of the first half of the season. The line improved quite a bit and I expect further improvement this year. Favre had his best season and I am not sure I buy a repeat, but he does get help form having AP in the backfield. Everybody thinks Cutler is gonna blow up under Martz, but I am not convinced that Cutler is a good match for a Martz system. I expect a ton of interceptions again this year. Stafford is in year 2 so we still have to see what’ sup with him, he was pretty good his rookie season.

RUNNING BACKS: 1) Vikings, AP; 2) Packers, Ryan Grant 3) Bears, Chester Taylor and Matt Forte; 4) Lions, Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith

AP is clearly the class of the group, and should get even more touches this year with Chester Taylor out of the rotation. Even with his fumbling problems he is still the class of the division. The rest of the division is a bit of a tossup, Grant always seems to play below expectations early in the season but finds a way toward the end. He did suffer a concussion in the first pre-season game, which would put Brandon Jackson as the premier back, we’ll see. I like Chester Taylor in Martz’s offense, he has always been effective as that dump off pass catching back, which is similar to the role Faulk played. Forte, I don’t know, I think he is going to be just a cog, and nothing special. Jahvid Best is getting some high expectations placed on him, but he is an unknown, Smith is talented,but injury prone.

RECIEVERS: 1) Packers, Driver, Jennings, Nelson; 2) Vikings, Rice, Harvin, Berrian ; 3) Lions, C. Johnson, Burelson, B Johnson; 4) Bears, Hester, Knox, Aromashadou

The difference between the Vikings and Packers is slim, in my opinion, but I have major concerns about Harvins migraine issues. If it weren’t for those I might rank Minny first. Calvin Johnson basically by himself puts the Lions at #3 ahead of the Bears, the best receiver in the division, IMO. The Bears receivers will get their chances to shine, and they all have had their moments, but for now they are 4th.

TIGHT END: 1) Packers, Jermichael Finley; 2) Vikings, Visanthe Shiancoe; 3) Bears, Olsen; 4) Lions, Scheffler

Again the Packers and Vikings clearly are a step above the other two teams. I love Finley and that is completely biasing by view. Shiancoe has a definite synergy with Favre. Olsen has his moments and SCheffler was very good with the Broncos for about half a season two years ago.

OFFENSIVE LINES: 1) Vikings; 2) Packers; 3) Bears’ 4) Lions

Vikings stand alone here, the other three you can throw into a hat and pick them in any order. Packer O-line did seem to improve as the season progressed, but that just turned them into adequate from “Don’t get my QB killed!”

DEFENSE: 1) Vikings; 2) Packers; 3) Bears; 4) Lions

Vikings defense is pretty complete, able to apply tons of pressure, strong linebacking. their weakness may be in the secondary, but they are more than adequate. The Packers offense is very opportunistic very good for fantasy purpose), but giving 51 points in the NFC Championship game showed they have A LOT of holes against potent offenses. Hopefully the second year of the 3-4 will provide more consistent results. The turnovers are what set the Pack ahead of the Bears, however a healthy Urlacher and Julius Peppers mean the Bears are pretty much in the same company as the other two teams. The lions, well, Suh should help the defense but this is a BAD defense.

I am going to stay away form Special teams and coaching.

OK so here are my game by game predictions, without any real analysis, just gut:

PACKERS (11-5 Wild Card):
@ Philly Win
Buffalo Win
@ Chicago Loss
Detroit Win
@ Washington Win
Miami Win
Minnesota Win
@ NY Jets Loss
Dallas Win
@ Minnesota Loss
@ Atlanta Loss
San Francisco Win
@ Detroit Win
@ New England Loss
NY Giants Win
Chicago Win

VIKINGS (11-5 and win the Division):
@ New Orleans Loss
Miami Win
@ Detroit Win
@ NY Jets Loss
Dallas Loss
@ Green Bay Loss
@ New England Win
Arizona Win
@ Chicago Win
Green Bay Win
@ Washington Win
Buffalo Win
NY Giants Win
Chicago Win
@ Philadelphia Loss
@ Detroit Win

BEARS (7-9):
Detroit Win
@ Dallas Loss
Green Bay Win
@ NY Giants Loss
@ Carolina Win
Seattle Win
Washington Loss
@ Buffalo Win
Minnesota Win
@ Miami Loss
Philadelphia Loss
@ Detroit Loss
New England Win
@ Minnesota Loss
NY Jets Loss
@ Green Bay Loss

LIONS (4-12):
@ Chicago Loss
Philadelphia Loss
@ Minnesota Loss
@ Green Bay Loss
St. Louis Win
@ NY Giants Loss
Washington Win
NY Jets Loss
@ Buffalo Win
@ Dallas Loss
New England Loss
Chicago Win
Green Bay Loss
@ Tampa Bay Loss
@ Miami Loss
Minnesota Loss

OK, so there it is, no need to play the season now.

2

I’ll pop in later with a detailed view of the Bears’ situation as I see it, but I’ll start off by picking your OP apart category by category. Partly because that’s ready made fodder and partly because I feel duty bound and viscerally compelled to jam my finger in the eye of every Packer fan I come across.

I don’t really disagree with this one. We’re off to a rosy start, we’ll see how long that lasts. I think the Vikings offense last season generally overachieved and I think there’s plenty of reason to expect a big drop off from Favre this year. Rodgers is in a class of his own, but I’m not sure he’ll get as much help this year as he did last. Overall I think his supporting cast is a year older and incrementally worse, that O Line is far from figured out and Peppers and Allen will give him trouble and the Lions pass rush improved too. I don’t think he repeats anything close to his numbers from last year.

On Favre, I think we all agree that he’s definitely coming back but I predict big issues there this year. I think the odds of him finishing the season are smaller than people think and I suspect that the years finally catch up with him. Who knows how much camp he’ll see this year, probably even less than last year, and with the ankle issue and still unresolved shoulder issue something is going to break down. Throwing the ball around a high school doesn’t prepare you for the NFL and his luck is bound to run out. Plus that O Line was pretty shoddy last year and the loss of Chester Taylor will open Favre up to some big hits on 3rd down.

I’m predictably optimistic on the Cutler-Martz relationship and thus far all signs point to it being pretty potent. The feedback from camp and their first preseason reps has been overwhelmingly positive and while the INTs may remain an issue the rest of the production should offset that. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Cutler finish the season as the best QB in the division so long as the WRs continue their upward trajectory.

Due to my pessimism on Favre I’d probably drop him down to third, but that’s admittedly difficult to back up objectively. I think the gap between Rodgers and the rest will close up significantly.

Again, I generally agree with your ratings but I take a much bleaker view across the board. AP is obviously the best but I think there are large issues looming for that Vikings running game. They’ll miss Taylor and I think Gerhart is going to be a huge liability, so much so that AP runs a real risk of over use, injury and he’s still a big weak spot in pass protection. While Taylor leaving should mean more carries for AP if he continues to be as poor a blocker as he has been and such a fumble risk the Vikings will be compelled to bench him on passing downs and use him identically to last season. Speaking of fumbles, I think Gerhart is going to make AP look like a bear trap, the guy is going to get stripped 5 times a game. I know nothing about this Albert Young guy and the likelihood of him replacing Taylor’s role but the Vikings get the nod here mostly by default.

Ironically, while the Vikings will miss Taylor I don’t think he’s really much of a solution for the Bears. He’s better than anything they trotted out there as a back up last season and he’ll be very useful protecting Cutler when Martz goes pass happy, but as a running back the guy sucks. I’m not going to Google it but there was an article, probably by the Football Outsiders guys, around the FA period that noted that Chester Taylor was one of the worst RBs in the league in efficiency. I forget the caveats, but for as bad as Forte was last year when it came to running the ball Taylor was one of the only backs who was worse. Make no mistake, Forte is the starter here and there’s some overly optimistic press blaming much of his trouble last year on nagging injuries. I’m not really buying that but I hope it’s true, because Taylor isn’t the answer. Taylor will certainly help Forte stay fresh and healthy though and as noted, Martz likes throwing the ball to RBs. If you look at the RB position as a combo of passing and rushing I think the Bears are clearly ahead of the Packers and they are certainly deeper.

Ryan Grant is a guy who’s numbers always seem to overstate his value. I’ve never watched a game and felt scared by the guy or felt that he ground out a game or wore down a defense. Nonetheless, he always manages to compile some OK numbers. I think those numbers are misleading and when it comes down to it the Packers running game is really undermanned. Grant is a mixed bag and behind him there’s next to nothing, Jackson doesn’t impress at all.

Now we’ve got some actual conflict, I think you have cheese in your eyes. Taken in isolation I put the Vikings first and the Lions second. If my Favre projection is true then the Vikes WRs will suffer for it, but that’s not really the point. They have the most talented WR class by a pretty big stretch. Harvin’s migraines are a major worry but I think Rice is a complete stud and I really like Marko Mitchell’s potential if Harvin misses time. Berrian is a great 3rd WR. The Vikes have not only the best WR corps in the division but they are one of the best in the NFL. Megatron is a beast and Burleson is a perfect complement. Bryant Johnson disappointed but as a 3rd WR he’s a damn nice option. Stafford needs to stay upright and get them the ball, but I can’t rank them behind the Packers.

The Packers are going to have big issues if Driver finally slows down a bit and I think he will. Jennings was painfully inconsistent last season and I think Nelson is clearly the least of the 3rd options in the division. Rodgers pads their numbers and makes them look good when he’s not running for his life but that doesn’t make them better WRs than the aforementioned teams. I’ll give them the edge over the Bears group right now based on experience and durability but I wouldn’t swap them straight up if I were the GM. The Bears have far more upside than the Packers do. Even worse, the Packers depth at the position is abysmal.

I’m pretty optimistic about the Bears starters and pretty underwhelmed by the backups. Their depth guys are better than the Packers, but that’s not saying much. Iglesias looks like a bust, Bennett is replacement level and never will be better than that, I’m hopeful that they’ve found something in Barnes or Matthews, but some competition is desperately needed. I start with the backups because I think they’ll be very important. I’m legitimately excited by the Bears WRs but I think injuries will be an issue across the board. They’ve got speed in spades, but Knox is slight and Aromashodu is a bit reckless with his body. Hester will be a great, great player in the slot (finally!) and I think Martz will finally exploit his skills properly but those damned soft tissue injuries will potentially crop up again. Thus far there’s been nothing but rave reviews about the development from these guys though.

You’re fucking nuts on this one. The division is pretty loaded at TE and there’s talent all around it, but the Bears are easily the best at the position. Olsen, Finley and Shiancoe are very tightly grouped and Olsen is the best pass catcher of the group, while Shiancoe has a knack in the redzone. Finley is the most athletic of the three, really you can pick your poison there. Behind the starters though it’s not even a contest. The Bears added Manumaleuna to be a road grader and no one in the division has a player like him, on running downs the Bears have a decided advantage at the position and the Bears still have a couple very productive hybrid TEs in Clark and Davis. Incidentally, I think it’s highly unlikely that Scheffler will unseat Pettigrew in Detroit who has a legitimate shot at joining the other 3 in the conversation at the top of the pile. With him and Scheffler I think I might give them the nod over the Packers and Vikings if you give extra weight to depth at the position.

This is definitely a case of the tallest midget. The Vikings are the top of the heap, but they have lost several steps from where they were 2 or 3 years ago. They were legitimately bad at the end of last season. If not for Loadholt I might call this a 4-way tie for last, though I think it’s likely Hutchinson bounces back. What does it say about the Lions that they were worse than the Packers and Bears were last year? Yikes. I’m trying to talk myself into being optimistic for the Bears with Tice retooling things and Williams hopefully growing into the LT role but at this point that’s pure homerism.

I think it would probably have been worth breaking the defenses down into their constituent parts but I’m not going to bother with it here. Again I think you’re nuts in ranking the Packers that high. They have a bunch of holes and players coming off injury and really the 3-4 conversion is far from a finished project. Their secondary is particularly thin and if Al Harris isn’t healed and his old self they could be in deep trouble back there. In that same vein the Bears need to sort out their secondary but the additions and guys back from injury should reliably boost their projection into that second spot at worst. The Vikings ironically also have issues in the defensive backfield but Jared Allen is a known quantity so I won’t quibble with him getting the nod over Peppers and Co. but with Henderson back off a broken leg and the Williams wall potentially serving a suspension (finally!) they could take a big fall.

Pretty important factors, those. Historically the Bears have been the class of the division on special teams and I hope that continues. The preseason game was really poor but I have faith in Taub’s ability to get it squared away. The potential issue is the roster turnover that may occur and leave the Special Teams rosters depleted. Historically the Bears would keep low upside offensive and defensive players who excelled at special teams but this year with the pressure to win now and Lovie and Martz’s combined needs to prove their squads can be great again that probably will change. Youth will be served and the Adrian Peterson’s and Rashied Davis’s of the world will probably be looking for work elsewhere in favor of rookies and developmental guys. The Packers were awful last year and the Vikings are almost always awful, so I’m not expecting any big changes in the division. Harvin is the wildcard, he’s good enough returning kicks to potentially swing things in their favor if their coverage units can improve to be average.

Rankings: 1) Bears, 2) Vikings, 3) Packers, 4) Lions

Coaching is more esoteric but the entire division is pretty suspect. I’m a long time hater of Lovie Smith and I’d eagerly put him at the bottom of the pile, but I am optimistic about the improvements that Tice and Martz can provide. Though I said the same thing about Marinelli last season. Still, the clowns the Vikings and Packers have aren’t exactly making strong cases either. McCarthy could be on the hotseat and Childress has an Andy Reid like ability to botch game management. Still, I suppose the Vikings and Packers staffs are good in the game prep side of things and deserve credit for putting potent offensive gameplans together even if they can’t seem to work out that stuff on Sundays. Lovie can’t do either well so that decision is easy. I’m half tempted to give Jim Schwartz the crown here in protest but his players have been so poor he’s essentially an unknown quantity.

Rankings: 1) Packers, 2) Vikings, 3) Bears, 4) Lions

3

Ahhh, the preseason. Hope, once again, springs eternal. The Packers O-line will stay healthy and productive. Favre will come back. Cutler will actually survive the season. And the Lions will win 7 games.

The coaches are all marvelled at how good their players are in pads. A constant stream of eternally optimistic columns in the local papers let everyone know that their team has improved and will be highly competitive this year. Each and every team in the NFL is better than they were last year.

Smell the roses. Enjoy the spring. Revel in the happy feelings and high hopes.

And then the real football games will start. Injuries will happen. Expectations will be dashed, and gaping flaws in a team will become obvious. Reality will set in.

Enjoy this time of year, I say! And remember it. " Just wait till next year!" is here, the glasses are rosy, and football is coming at long last.

Huzzah!

4

Thanks for the myopic Bears fan perspective Omniscient, now all we need is a Vikings and a Lions fan to give their completely “unbiased” views to go with ours and we will be set.

He only thing I want to comment on is your TE anlysis.

Umm, no. Finley led the division TEs in yardage and YAC despite playing three fewer games than the other guys. He is the best TE in the division. And I will put Lee and Havner against any othe backups, and it is nice you have a blocking tight end in Manumaleuna, I admit, but there is simply no way the Bears TEs are better than the Packers. But I do agree that the Lions could be better. In fact, in retrospect I would probably rank them 1) Packers, 2) Lions, 3) Bears, and 4) Vikings because I do not like the Viings depth at the position.

5

FAVRE ALERT

Number 4 is on his way to MSP. I just now heard KFAN (Vikings flagship station) reporting that Favre is expected to arrive at Winter Park around 3:00. Here we go.

I pick the Vikings to win the division again, and I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the Lions will shock the League by having a decent season and maybe even getting a WC berth.

I think the Packers and Bears will slug it out for dead last, though neither will be terrible, just mediocre. I think the Packers will still be able to score, but their defense will be swiss cheese, and with the loss of Jolly, their pass rush will take a hit as well. Expect to see the packers playing from behind a lot, which means A-Rodge will be running for his life and taking a lot of sacks again.

6

Vikings fan checking in. I think 11-5 sounds about right for MN (7-1 at home, 4-4 on the road). How that will affect them in the playoffs, I’m not sure. I think it’s good for a division championship, but whether they can get a bye and a 2nd round home game, I’m not sure. (I lament last year’s failure to reach the Super Bowl mainly because everything fell into place pretty much perfectly. If the team had just shown up in the 1st half of the Monday night game in Chicago in December and won, rather than losing in overtime, they’d have had home field advantage, and I think gone to the SB. C’est la vie.)

I agree with Dio that the Packers D is just horrible, and won’t give them a shot at a division crown. A repeat of last season’s outcome (early playoff road loss) seems the likeliest scenario in my mind. I don’t think getting Julius Peppers will be enough for the Bears. I don’t know enough about Detroit, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll shock the world and do more than 8-8 (which would probably be a shock itself).

7

Why who ever could have seen this coming? Favre is back after telling people he was retiring, but not really retiring, but instead getting more money and a hand job from the owner and fellow players. I’m so surprised.

Holy Crap! That’s as stunning as Favre coming back! Why I must go have a lie down from all these surprises.

I really think they’ll take a step forward this year, but I’d bet dollars to donuts that the Lions don’t make the playoffs.

It will certainly be another exciting year in the NFC North. It’ll be interesting to see if Favre can have one more wonder year. I was very surprised he was as good as he was in the regular season last year, and though I can’t see him doing it again, maybe he’ll shock me one more time. And heck, maybe he’ll even not be a major reason his team loses in the playoffs this year!

And I’m thrilled to see the Packers’ defense not scaring anyone here. I like it that way.

8

Detroit Lions:

3-5 wins this year. They’re historically bad and inept, but there is upside. There are many young pieces that have lots of talent around, which is nice, but will they stay healthy? Will the veterans solidify the lines? The Detroit Lions need to knock two more years of drafting out of the park to get to competitiveness. Two more drafts, in a row, like the one they had last year, and they can be in the conversation.

Probably not.

Packers, Vikings, Bears, Lions. I’d say the Packers will get 10 or 11, the Vikings 9 or 8, the Bears 8 or 7, and the Lions from 3-5 wins.
Omni, the Bears are breaking down on defense, man. It’s been a strength of theirs for a long time, but they’re in rough shape.

The Packers’ defense doesn’t have to scare anyone. The offense does all that already. They’ll put up points.

The Vikings could do this, but there’s the Favre factor. If he doesn’t show up (ha), then the Vikings and Bears will tussle for a Wild Card spot and a quick exit from the playoffs. If Favre can come back and just manage the game, the Vikings could very well take the division. Favre coming in at game 3 or 4 or something, and I think you get what I predicted.

9

Favre’s already here. He showed up at training camp about an hour ago.

10

Then put them at a virtual tie for first for the division. 6 of one, half dozen of another.

11

Not any more than any other team I think. Urlacher is showing his miles and Tillman can’t seem to stay healthy, though he doesn’t miss much time, but overall they aren’t braking down any quicker than any other NFL team. They added Peppers and got rid of perpetual infirmary room guy Nathan Vasher. Dumped aging guys like Alex Brown and Ugunleye and completely retooled their secondary. They aren’t going to be elite in the league but they should be better than last year.

The Bears defense, more than anything, is unproven. Breaking down implies that it’s old and outdated, aside from Urlacher and Briggs that’s not really the case. In the secondary it’s all new, Tillman moved to the weak side, Bowman is growing into the strong side CB role. FS Chris Harris is old-new again and playing the opposite position from what he played in his first stint with the club and there is open competition at SS with rookie Major Wright the odds on favorite. Manning and Graham will get worked in somehow and beyond that it’s a sea of unproven young guys. If we were still trotting out Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher then breaking down would be a key phrase.

The LBs got wiped out by injuries last year and still held strong. Urlacher is wearing out obviously but Briggs is still in his prime and the rest of the guys are young and healthy.

The front 4 are pretty much a mystery. Peppers is great but will he perform in our system? Can Anderson be a starter opposite? Can Harris be great again with Peppers drawing all the attention? Can a slimmed down Idonije excel on the outside? What is the middle of the line going to do? Can any of these young guys like Gilbert, Wooten and Melton go anything at all? Peppers is older, Harris is perpetually dinged, but I wouldn’t call this a breaking down group. Inexperienced and unknown for sure.

There lots of reasons to be skeptical about the Bears defense this season, but old and decrepit was the story last year, this year it’s been turned over almost entirely.

12

Well, can I give an unbiased view on the situation? Maybe that will count for something? And since the other NFL threads are basically dead, this is the most interesting game in town, so I’m doing it anyway.

Rodgers is absolutely the class of the division, even considering Favre’s miracle comeback year. I think it would be unwise and near-sighted to expect anything remotely similar to Favre’s 2009 in 2010. Sports fans have a definite tendency to forget everything beyond a year ago, and I think people have completely forgotten that he threw 22 picks in 2008, and 15 in 2007 (15, by the way, being an exceptional year for him and his loest total in a single season for like ten years). The fairer comparison is Favre and Cutler… and they’re basically a statistical wash, right? So I’ll take the one who isn’t turning 42 and isn’t coming off a somewhat significant injury.

Rodgers, Cutler, Favre, Stafford

Agreed here. Ryan Grant is better than Omni thinks, but the depth there brings Green Bay back to Chicago’s level. I don’t know too much about Matt Forte, but I’m not at all impressed by him yet. he took a significant step back last year, and he wasn’t even great his first season, either, despite his numbers. At least Ryan Grant has done it, done it well, and more than once… While I’m not sure I can agree that Chester Taylor is one of the worst backs in the league (I’ll go with manufacturing a contrived angle for $100, Alex), he’s not exactly a superstar, either. I don’t know what to think about Detroit’s situation.

Actually, there’s a really interesting comparison here… between Chicago and Detroit. I might even take Detroit, but I can’t know what Best will do. Smith and Forte are basically a wash (Smith is slightly younger, has shown more explosiveness, and fumbles slightly less often). Forte caught more passes, but Smith did more with his, and Smith has actually broken 4.0 YpC once in his career. So it comes down to Taylor vs. Best, and I can’t answer that.

I’ll go Peterson/Gerhart, Grant, Smith/Best, Forte/Taylor. I’ll give the nod to Best, who could potentially be great. We already know what Taylor can do, and apparently the extent of his skill set is in question. Promise and potential takes my vote.

I’m not going to downgrade Driver for getting old until he actually gets old. His demise has been predicted for about three years running, and with Rodgers around, he could lose a step or two and still be productive. Megatron may be the best receiver in the division, but Jennings has been just as good in the past. Is this another case of people having no long term memory? Driver and Jennings is the best 1-2 in the division, certainly. I need to see the Vikings guys do it again before I give them a lot of love. We’re talking about Sidney Rice. Considering what he did in Minnesota before Favre’s miracle breakout year (which absolutely no one saw coming, including Mrs. Favre), I’m really not sold, yet. Percy Harvin was supposed to be a really raw receiver who had to be hand fed touches because his receiving skills were so unrefined. I mean, by production last year alone I can understand putting Minnesota second, but I’d rather have Johnson and some other guys than Rice and Harvin, at least until they can show it wasn’t a fluke. I’m more sold on Harvin than Rice, actually. Even the Vikings didn’t know Rice was any good when they tried to sign star FA WRs and spent their first pick on Harvin.

Putting the Bears anywhere other than 4th is a travesty of bias and subjective analysis. When one of their receivers breaks 1000 yards in a season, then we can talk about them. As of right now they’re so far back from the other three as to not even be mentioned. And I really like Knox and Aromashodu… but come on.

Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota.

I was tempted to say that this too was also a travesty of bias… but then I saw what Finley has done compared to Olsen. Olsen might just be a hype machine at this point, what has he done? At least Finley has shown elite level athleticism and play-making ability. He led the division in yards in three fewer games than Shiancoe and Olsen. He’s got elite level potential. And between Shiancoe and Olsen, I’ll take Shiancoe. They’re both more possession style targets (very similar YpC stats), and Shiancoe is a better red zone target and a much better receiver (Olsen’s catch % is really, really poor). I’m not at all buying Olsen as a top level TE right now.

Finley, Shiancoe, Olsen, Scheffler
I’ve run out of steam, so I’m ending it here.

13

Oh, forgot to add. You all clearly have no idea how good the Packers D was last season, at least statistically. I mean, NO idea. Green Bay was the only team in the top 5 in the league in DVOA against the run AND pass last season. Even the Jets couldn’t manage that. They were the best in that division last season by a mile and a half, playoffs be damned.

14

So you’re pinning your hopes on a defensive end that plays on one down? Julius Peppers is, was, and always has been, pretty overrated. When he was younger, the amount by which he was overrated was slight. Now, it’s much more.

I foresee disappointment in your near future.

15

The delusion of Packer fans knows no bounds. Favre spanked Aaron Rodgers’ ass twice last season. Have we forgotten that? Rodgers isn’t worthy to wash Favre’s jock.

16

All that tells me is that the DVOA formula needs some serious work.

17

I wasn’t manufacturing anything. I finally found the article I referenced about Taylor here. I haven’t broken down the analysis or anything but I thought it was an interesting bit of info about a guy the fanbase seemed to be touting as the savior of the running game.

18

You need to define your argument. You’re looking at production as the only measure. That’s not really the point when you are breaking a team into it’s constituent groups. Yes the Packers WRs and TE look good based on last years numbers because they had a hell of a QB having a hell of a year throwing to them and have had him for 3+ years. Saying that the Vikings WRs and TE were one hit wonders because two years ago they were stuck with Tavaris sorta misses the point. At that point there’s little point to the exercise and you might as well just talk about the offenses as a whole and that’s even suspect when you consider that other than Rodgers not a single QB was around prior to last year on those teams.

Also, talking about the top 2 WRs falls short. It’s pretty rare these days that 3 WRs aren’t on the field and most teams will use 4 pretty often.

If the Vikings offered Harvin, Berrian and Rice straight up the Packers would ship Driver, Jennings and Nelson to Minny so fast they’d have whiplash. Hell, every team in the league might take a Megatron, Burleson, Johnson package from Detroit if they gave it some thought. If Driver breaks down the Packers will fall very far very fast.

19

Umm, AFAICT I’m the first to point out that it’s Jay Cutler, not Jake.

20

Wrong. LMAO - sooooo wrong. Unless you meant that all of Cutler’s interceptions balance out all of Favre’s TDs or something strange like that.