NFC NORTH - 2014 Discussion Thread

The Game Room
1

Last year was a bad year for the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers going down with an injury and bad GM’ing with his backup, with the complete collapse of the Bears defense, with a typical meltdown by the Lions (Goodbye Jim Schwartz, and go fuck yourself you piece of crap), and a rebuilding year with the Vikings, none of these teams performed as well as they could (and should) have done.

Sure the Packers won the division (again), but they lost a tough game in the first round of the playoffs. The Bears dropped from 10-6 to 8-8, yet everyone is happier because they had more offense, so winning isn’t everything apparently. The Lions had the division in hand … and then lost 6 of the last 7 to throw it all away (Give me a minute to laugh at Jim Schwartz again!). There is hope, because those losses were usually close, with 4 of the 6 being less than 3 points (Hahahahahahaha, Jim Schwartz!), so if Caldwell can tighten that ship a bit, they could contend again. And the Vikings, well, the Vikings are rebuilding again after going 5-10-1.

Let’s take a look at the upcoming season in the NFC North. I’ll go alphabetically.

Chicago Bears

A tale as old as time: Veteran QB gets everything he needs to succeed, with lots of free agent money and a first round draft pick spent on the O Line, two Pro Bowl receivers and a big name free agent TE, a solid running game, and a genius offensive coach. He then goes out and has a career year, putting up nice numbers and an outstanding (for him) QB efficiency rating. All excuses are gone, and he performs like a better than average QB, thanks to the heavy investment in the offense.

Then he goes to Tampa Bay. That’s Josh McCown. If you think I was talking about Jay Cutler, you’re right also. He too had the best year of his career … and then got injured. My point is that give even an average journeyman QB two pro-bowlers, heavy investments in the O line, and a genius coach, and they can perform better than Jay Cutler.

There are high hopes in Chicago this year, thanks to that high powered offense. Even if there is just a modicum of better defensive play, the hope is that the Bears can win double digit games and the division for the first time since 2010. With the officiating attempting to hinder NFL defenses even more, the Bears are built for shootouts.

Last year I was spot on with the Bears, predicting a 8-8 season and a second or third place finish in the division. I didn’t see the complete collapse of the defense coming, but it was fun to watch anyway. The offense on this team is potent, and will have to carry the team yet again. But a tough opening schedule and some questions about the development of their highly drafted defensive players, this team could run into trouble. A loss or two on offense to injury could devastate this team. I don’t see a lot of defensive improvement, and I still wouldn’t trust Cutler, so I predict a 9-7 season with a lot of shootout, and an outside chance at a wild card.

Detroit Lions
Last year I predicted that the Lions would go 6-10 and fire Jim Schwartz. They went 7-9 and fired Jim Schwartz. Damn, I’m good.

The Lions are like the Bears and the Packers, incredible offenses with huge questions on defense. With the best WR in the game, a new free agent WR (Golden Tate) signed in the offseason to take the #2 WR job, a first round TE, and the return of Reggie Bush and the surprisingly good Joique Bell, I expect another year of potent offensive play. But, again like the Bears, the play of their QB may be an issue, with Stafford throwing 12 interceptions and fumbling 5 times during last year’s losing streak. If Caldwell can cut down on Stafford’s interceptions, this team could easily contend.

The defense, however, is still a huge question mark. Their cornerbacks could be the worst in the league and the head cases of their first round picks Suh and Fairley, while dominant at times, are woefully inconsistent. The Lions are hoping that as both of them enter contract years, they’ll be motivated enough to actually try all the time and they’ll wreck havoc on the NFC North. I’ll believe it when I see it.

I like the Lions to have a solid season. With Caldwell providing a more stable ship and the D line having the potential to be one of the best in recent times, there is a ton of hope. But that secondary is going to make it be a shootout. If Megatron goes down, this team could be reeling, but I think a 8-8 finish, maybe 9-7, and a shot at a wild card is possible.

Green Bay Packers

I predicted another great season last year, with a divisional win and a 11-5 record. Unfortunately, I did not plan on Aaron Rodgers missing 7 games. They did win the division though, but a slow offensive start against the Niners and an inability to get a big defensive stop at the end sent the Packers home early last year.

The Packers, like the teams mentioned above, have a potent offense and a questionable defense. They can win games on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers, but unless that defense improves, they’ll continue to be ousted in the playoffs. Their GM actually signed a big name free agent (gasp!) bringing in Julius Peppers to play opposite Clay Matthews, and they drafted a safety in the first round to help solidify that defense. There are holes, with a new body at center, no real upgrade at the ILB position, questionable talent at TE, and young, unproven players at safety, but this team will be in contention all year long. They get some nice talent back from injury, including first rounders Brian Bulaga, Derrick Sherrod, and impressive as a rookie Casey Heyward.

Unless injuries derail this season (again), I expect another double digit win season and another divisional championship. I like the additions to the defense, especially that secondary, and Eddie Lacy is so much fun to watch run the ball, I have high hopes. They certainly need more from recent high draft picks Nick Perry, Datone Jones, and Derrick Sherrod, but with Aaron Rodgers, they’ll always have a chance.

Minnesota Vikings

My prediction for the Vikings last year included: “Who knows?”, which was exactly right, because I predicted a 9-7 season and they ended up 5-10-1. Christian Ponder was a bust, they got old and injured on defense, and they were so desperate, they signed Josh Freeman to play for them. Doesn’t get much worse than that.

I don’t see much chance of a resurgence this year either. They’re clearly rebuilding, letting Jared Allen go, with Kevin Williams retiring, and drafting a QB in the first round. It will take awhile for this team to be competitive again, time they really don’t have with Adrian Peterson getting older/higher mileage on him. They’ll rely on mediocre Matt Cassell to limp them through the first part of this year, and then perhaps turn the reins over to Bridgewater. Their defensive secondary has been a weak spot for years, but there is hope with the signing of Captain Munnerlyn away from Seattle, the return of Harrison Smith, and some flashes from Xavier Rhodes. With a new defensive minded coach, the Vikings are hoping their pass defense improves, which will be a must in the NFC North with offensive powerhouses.

I think they’ll struggle on both sides of the ball again, with this year being another lost year, but there should be some positives mixed in there too. I’ll go with 6-10.

Those are my thoughts on the NFC North going into the 2014 football season. The Bears, Packers, and Lions are all very similar teams, with high powered offenses and questionable defenses. Of course only one of those teams has one of the best QB’s in the league, so I’ll, once again, be a homer and pick the Packers to win the division.

Feel free to add your thoughts, predictions, smack talk, or cheerleading as you see fit.

2

Sigh, I’ll miss Jim Schwartz. Sure I hated his “play 'til after the whistle” and no player accepts responsibility approach as well as his methods of cultivating thuggish play from everyone on the team, but damn if they weren’t so fun to watch. You knew every year there would be a meltdown about halfway through, stupid penalties, suspensions, and general brainfarts from everyone there on Sunday, including the Schwartz Man himself.

If Julius Peppers plays with the same kind of attitude and sense of urgency that he played with last year, then the Packers are more than welcome to have him. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that the change of scenery is going to put a little pep back into him. I would also wager that he’ll have at least two games where he comes out and turns it up to 11.

I was thinking of doing a breakdown of the Bears but I also want to wait until pre season is over. There are still some roster positions being determined and this will continue for two more weeks. Fortunately, the number ones are in place on offense and just about everyone is returning so the play on that side of the ball should not only be solid but should take a step forward with the second year of the Trest Coast Offense. The only question marks are receivers after Marshall and Jeffery and tight end after Bennett.

Defensively, the rebuilt line looks good with a mix of veterans (Jared Allen!) and young rookies. The corners are set with Tillman, Jennings, and rookie Kyle Fuller but the linebackers beyond Briggs are all question marks and they still need to figure out what to do at safety other than throw a bunch of bodies there.

On the special teams side, they lost one of the great special teams aces to wear a Bears uniform – Someone who has played with only the Bears and was a longtime favorite. Long snapper Patrick Mannelly retired after 16 years in Chicago. Also that Hester guy is gone.

Actually, the Bears are still trying to determine their return game and I think replacing Hester won’t be all that easy. He was a great returner but a lackluster receiver (I thought he had moments, but Lovie Smith didn’t do anyone a service by calling him a number one receiver) and so with his age and price, the Bears opted to let him walk in free agency. I have no idea who will return now and they already cut Eric Weems because he couldn’t hang onto the ball in the second preseason game. I’m hoping they just don’t put a fullback back there like Dick Jauron did.

3

Remember the good old days, The Old Central Division When a cold chill shot through all the Bears and their fans when they had to make the trip to play the Vikings outside at the Met, Back outside. You know when the Vikings owned the division. The Vikes are rebuilding and may be a year or two from the Superbowl. But I think taken back the North is a done deal in 2014. You got to see it coming. It’s all starting to line up. Can’t you see it. It really is special.Whooooooooaaaaaaaaaaah!

4

Back when the Vikings played at the Met and the old central division was owned by the Vikings. 2014 WE come full circle. Yeah we are rebuilding and are a year or two from the Superbowl. But I think the North is weak and easy pickings this year. 2014 we take back the North. The Cheese,Cubs,and Cats think they know the Vikings and all their offense and defense schemes. Why wouldn’t they, being division rivals and seeing new coach after new coach use the same old playbook. Well there’s a new Sheriff in town and he is throwing out the old playbook. It may take a little time for the Vikes to learn Zimmers Schemes. The rest of the division better watch out.

5

Fixed that for you.

No time for a long response, but basically…yup.

Fired up for the offense, all signs point to this offense being must-see TV for like the first time ever. Cutler was disappointing once again while also somehow leaving everyone wildly optimistic anyways. Naturally, I’m still drinking the Kool-aid and one of these days I think it will be rewarded. Only thing different is that this year there’s very few “if only’s” with the circumstances, no hoping Hester can run better routes, no hoping Martz dials back the crazy, no hoping JaMarcus Webb stops being JaMarcus Webb, everything is unquestionably there.

My biggest fear is that this could be the year that the injury bug strikes. Losing Marquess Wilson and De La Puente. Long and Mills getting dinged up before playing a game. Hopefully that’s not a sign of what’s to come.

The defense should be better, though the Safety situation is quite alarming. I weird part is that the Shea McClellin experiment at LB might be the key to the whole thing. If he flops, I don’t think any of the other LBs will be able to stabilize things. Greene and Bostic look like busts and DJ Williams is made of glass. We’ll see. I am very excited about Kyle Fuller and Lamarr Houston though, and I think the DT rotation could be disruptive. We’ll see.

6

Thanks. Now that Schwartz is gone, I find myself feeling bad for Lions fans again.

This year it’s hoping Jordan Mills stops being Jordan Mills. Pro Football Focus says: “It was a rough first season for Mills who gave up more pressures than any other offensive tackle in the league. He wasn’t much better in the running game, perhaps not surprising for a fifth round pick.” and “Mills finished last among all tackles with his -32.5 grade”. When you’re desperate to have one of the worst OT’s in the NFL back from injury, you might have a problem.

I know I’ve harped on this endlessly, but the Bears were in the top half of NFL teams in adjusted games lost last year, were the third healthiest in 2012, again in the top half in 2011, and the second healthiest in 2010. They’ve had an incredible run of health with next to nothing to show for it. If they do suffer even the league average number of adjusted games lost, they could be in trouble.

The D line is definitely improved, especially against the run where they were atrocious last year. But I would worry (if I were a Bears fan that is) that a 32 year old Jared Allen and Lamar Houston’s 4 sacks a year average will put a lot of pressure on the secondary, a secondary that may not be up to the challenge.

I found it interesting that most Vegas oddsmakers have the Bears at 8.5 win over/under. Given the excitement in Chicago, their high scoring offense, and the off season additions, I was actually expecting it at 9, maybe even 10. Seems Vegas doesn’t necessarily buy the hype in Chicago.

As you said: We shall see.

7

Well 75% of the NFC North played last night in the 3rd, and most important, preseason game. The Packers’ offense looked great and, as anyone following the Packers the last few years could have guessed, they may have lost a starter on defense for awhile with BJ Raji tearing his bicep. Same old, same old. Except their defense did look a bit better than last year.

The Bears defense looked horrid, and their offense wasn’t nearly as explosive as they could be. But considering the Bears had the Super Bowl champs and the Packers had the lowly Raiders, I wouldn’t take too much away from that.

And the Lions eke out a 1 point win against the lowly Jags. Stafford throws a bad interception, which isn’t a good indicator, and but for a great run by Reggie Bush, there wasn’t much to like about the game. And while they were stout against the run, the Lions once again struggled against the pass, making Blake Bortles look like an All Pro.

Now a couple weeks of meaningless stuff to determine the back 1/3 of the roster, and then we can get to some real football!

8

The Bears did have the #2 offense in all of football last year and gave up the 4th fewest sacks. I’ve read the PFF report and the ensuing analysis too, but there have been a lot of examples of PFF’s (and just about everyone’s) OL stats/rankings diverging from the results on the field. Maybe Trestman, Kromer, McCown and Cutler are so good that it doesn’t matter. The point is that the results last year were good, and nothing changed for the worse this year, so no excuses.

At least it’s not a 34 year old FA DE playing a new position that we’re counting on…

Don’t know what news outlets you’re reading, but there’s very little wide-eyed optimism in Chicago. The defense was embarrassing and Bears fans expect good defense. The bloom is off the Emery rose in a lot of ways after the McClellin, Hardin, Bostic and Greene picks and the patch work FAs brought in at LB last year and the Safeties this year (nevermind hiring Mel Tucker and Joe DeCamillis). Great offense, terrible special teams and defense reads about like a 8-8 season, but of course we hope for more. Bears fans sure as hell aren’t pre-booking hotel rooms in Arizona.

Back a little later with a Bears roster breakdown.

9

Today was final cuts and the Bears released their initial 53 man roster. Seems like the right time to waste an hour offering up my thoughts before opening day. I didn’t get to watch nearly as much of the preseason as I normal like to, but I formed some opinions anyways.

Offense
**QB: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, David Fales **
Cutler was locked in, obviously, after signing a long term extension. I won’t spend too much time talking about Cutler, we know that story already and I’m sure Hamlet is all-too happy to share the dissenting view. This preseason he’s looked great and all the media reports from camp paint him as a more mature, more focused and more charismatic leader in the huddle and in the locker room. Training camp reports need to be taken with a grain of salt, as always, but it’s better than the alternative. Plus, the Trest-coast offense was eye-opening last season and a second year in it should be good for Cutler.

There was a brief competition in camp for the backup role in the wake of McCown’s departure for Tampa, but I think it’s a no-brainer to keep Clausen. He’s ripe for a second chance and maybe the QB-whisperer can make him into McCown 2.0 or better. He’s got a heck of a lot more physical ability, if not wisdom and maturity, and I’m sure the Bears wouldn’t mind shaping him into a nice post-Cutler insurance policy if he decides to flame out. Probably a pipe dream, but it looks good on paper.

The potential of Clausen’s upside took the spotlight off Fales for most of the preseason. I’m an advocate of always drafting and developing a QB and some folks (Kiper) thought Fales was a heck of a prospect. I wasn’t one of them because he’s got iffy physical tools and played middling competition, but I have little reason to doubt Trestman’s judgment on this. Most reports are that Fales looked legit in the 4th preseason game, but I didn’t watch it yet and I recall a guy named Caleb looking pretty good under similar circumstances at one time. That said, it was an important occurrence since the Bears chose to (or were forced to) keep 3 QBs on the active roster. Maybe he was thought highly enough of that he’d have never cleared waivers even without that platform, but it certainly would have been better for him to land on the practice squad instead.

The Bears released Jordan Palmer earlier in the preseason and he was picked up by the Bills for a week before being dropped again. Palmer was in the Trestman system the longest making him perhaps the safe choice, but I think the Bears were right to move on. If injuries mount, I have no doubt that Palmer will be available as a mid-season FA option in the same way McCown was in 2011.

RB: Matt Forte, Shaun Draughn, Ka’Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
FB: Tony Fiametta
Like Cutler, Forte was a foregone conclusion. I’ve long thought Forte was a bit over-rated certainly overpaid, but nonetheless he’s a critical piece of the offense and he too benefited from the new system. Last year he posted career highs in both rushing and receiving yards and TDs and is locked in as a 3-down all-purpose back making him a fantasy darling this year. There’s no question that he’s a reliable and productive player, but I prefer a running back who can move the chains on obvious running downs, Forte’s never been that guy. In spite of my cynicism here, Forte is a strength for the team and we’re going to have to squeeze every drop of ability out of him for the next couple seasons.

Surprisingly, Shaun Draughn has emerged as the backup and it really hasn’t been close. Not sure if that says more about Draughn or Carey, but he managed to lock up the #2 spot immediately. He’s looked really productive both running and receiving against backups and had some success against the Browns starters in Week 4, so I’m feeling better about this spot than I have in a few seasons. Draughn’s been a journeyman unable to hold a job to this point and I hesitate to get excited here, but he’s looked better than a guy who was out of work most of least season. Maybe Trestman can do for RBs what he did for the backup QB last year.

Backup RB is a really important position and I’ve long wanted the Bears to develop that spot with a draft choice, instead they’ve rolled the dice with 28-30 year old FAs. Most viewed Carey as the fulfillment of that wish, but I wasn’t one of them. One thing a RB can’t be is slow and Carey is slow. In the preseason Carey has been really unimpressive. I actually thought Carey should have been outright released and he probably would have had no trouble finding the practice squad. Unfortunately that probably would have been too embarrassing for Emery so they so they held onto 4 RBs at the expense of another position. Whatever the case, this seems like a wasted draft pick.

Perry is a interesting case. It’s not clear what was a bigger factor in the Bears keeping Perry, lack of confidence in Carey or lack of confidence in the other available return men. Perry, a rookie UDFA out of Louisville, has been interesting if not eye-popping in limited time. He’ll hold down the KR job due to the injuries and disappointment in the backup WRs who were expected to compete here. I’m hoping he can run the ball well enough to push Carey off the roster entirely allowing the Bears to add a guy like Chris Williams back while we wait for Marquess Wilson to heal up.

Earlier in camp the Bears parted ways with Michael Ford who was last year’s Senorise Perry. During the 2013 season he added little and seems to have regressed in the offseason. In other news, the Bears kept a FB on the roster. Wouldn’t it be cool if you could kind a competent FB to be your long snapper?

I should also mention that a inordinate amount of pixels and sound waves have been used discussing the fate of Jordan Lynch, local boy Heisman candidate QB turned crappy RB. Lynch was released ahead of the final cut down deadline and didn’t really show much. Some talk of him ending up on the practice squad, but personally I think that’s a mistake. What’s the best case scenario here? Brad Smith? Josh Cribbs? Not a chance.

WR: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Marquess Wilson, Josh Morgan, Michael Spurlock, Santonio Holmes
Even though this is the Bears strongest position on the roster it was also one of the most interesting and important ones to watch this preseason. Things got even more dramatic when Dominick Hixon tore his ACL for the upteenth time at OTAs and Marquess Wilson turned up with a busted clavicle and was placed on IR-designated to return. Wilson was penciled in as the WR3 and he was really impressing the coaches and people were excited before the injury. He’ll be back in week 10 and we’re hoping that he doesn’t regress in the interim.

I won’t talk much about Marshall and Jeffery since I view them as known quantities. They are great, probably the best tandem in all of football, and there’s no reason to expect a regression. The pessimist in me wonders if Jeffery could have been a one-hit wonder and/or started to believe the hype a bit too much, but it’s not like he came out of nowhere. There were no red flags for either guy in the preseason. All systems go.

In the wake of the Wilson injury it became an open competition for the flanker/WR3 position with Chris Williams, the litigious CFL star, being the favorite to win the spot. Williams however couldn’t stay healthy with hamstring issues which shouldn’t have been that surprising considering how little he’s played in the last couple years. Most still expected him to make the squad, but it was not to be as he was among the last cuts (perhaps a casualty of the Fales and Carey/Perry decisions).

While Williams was gimpy the Bears went out and grabbed Santonio Holmes who was dumped by the Jets. I don’t really know what the issue is with Holmes, apparently he’s a problem guy, but I’m not up to speed on the specifics. I do know that he seems to still have all the physical ability that he needs to be a star. Time will tell if the locker room issues and commitment issues rear their head, but I’m expecting him to claim that WR3 spot easily once he’s up to speed in the system and that will be a very good thing for the Bears offense.

Before the Holmes addition, I was expecting Josh Morgan to be the third guy even though it seemed like the media had written him off for dead. He’s not dynamic but he’s professional and has had some success in the league. He looked like the most comfortable in the system and seems lie the most likely to step in for Marshall or Jeffery in case of injury. Morgan and Holmes don’t have the sexy factor that speedy youngsters and CFLers have, but for this offense they are better options. I’m happy with the roster choices here.

Spurlock made the team almost entirely based on his special teams ability. He’ll compete with Perry as the KR and likely get the PR job in week 1. I view this as a huge disappointment. He’s got little upside as a WR and hasn’t been anything more than adequate as a return man. I didn’t expect be thinking this, but I really wish we had Hester back in this spot right now. Looking like a big mistake so far.

TE: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Matthew Mulligan
Lots of noise around Marty this preseason with the fight and suspension that was more about his crappy effort and attitude in camp. I don’t think there’s a lot of reason to worry once the cameras are on, but we’re learning why Bennett has bounced around between different teams thus far in his career. Time for him to grow up some. I’m not alarmed yet and I fully expect him to have a Pro Bowl caliber season at TE this year, but it’s concerning that the Bears don’t have a better contingency plan.

Rosario is about as unexciting as a backup TE can be, but like Holmes and Morgan, he’s professional. He can block and catch and will be in the right place. If we have too rely on him to start it will be a problem and I don’t think he’ll make Trestman and Kromer particularly eager to call a lot of 2-TE sets, but he’s not a guy we have to worry about.

Mulligan is a blocker and he’s been on 7 teams in 5 years. Not very exciting at all. This roster spot seemed to be all but locked up by Zach Milller before his season ending Lisfranc injury. Damn shame too, since he had some amazing plays and looked like he’d get a lot of run here. Back to Mulligan, don’t know much about him on honestly he’s not gotten much attention in camp. I gather he’s more of a block-first 2-way TE than a 6th OL, but I’m willing to trust the coaches here.

OL: Jermon Bushrod, Matt Slauson, Roberto Garza, Kyle Long, Jordan Mills, Michael Ola, Brian de la Puente, Charles Leno Jr.
Is it a good offensive line or a bad one? Who the hell knows, whatever the case the offense was excellent with the same group of starters last year so they get the benefit of the doubt. The interior guys were unquestionably good, on tape and on the stat sheet, with Slauson being the star of the group. One of several guys we’ve poached from the Jets in recent years. I can’t wait for the Bears to put Garza out to pasture but the “experts” value his intangibles, maybe they are right and somehow he graded out well last season. My eyes tell me he’s a liability and one of the biggest reasons why we are so bad at running between the tackles. The Bears added De La Puente as a free agent presumably to upgrade that Center position, but he went down in week 1 with what looked like a season-ender. The MRIs proved different and it was just a bad MCL sprain that wouldn’t need surgery. He should be back for the regular season opener as the interior swing man. Not exciting and a big downgrade at either OG spot, but maybe he’ll replace Garza at some point. His history with Kromer seems to make it a likelihood.

Kyle Long has been sick and dinged up this preseason but no one seems worried about his limited playing time this preseason. I liked what I saw last year and I’m projecting a big improvement in year two. Perhaps the biggest issue with his being out for much of camp is that he didn’t get any looks at OT while Mills was healing up. Maybe the plan to move him outside has been retired, but it would have been nice to at least get a look.

Bushrod is back on the blind side and the stats guys all continue to crush him as a liability. I won’t argue that he’s not overpaid, but he didn’t look like a problem to me. He was actually very valuable getting out on screens and blocking in space. Cutler got hurt, McCown got hit a lot and the stats say we gave up too much pressure on the edges last year. Bushrod needs to get better, but I’m not worried about him either. Maybe we draft a OT next year. Mills didn’t see any preseason action as he recovered from foot surgery but he is supposedly ready to go for week one. I don’t love the idea of a 2nd year man who got his fair share of criticism coming in cold against the Bills, but it’s apparently the best option we have. Even if he was a major weak spot last year he probably outperformed expectations. I expect the leash to be a short one, but I’m willing to be optimistic for a week or two.

Charles Leno and Michael Ola are expected to be the backups on the outside. Not much reason for optimism here at all and if Mills isn’t 100% we could be in big trouble. Ola is a nice story and bucked the odds by making the roster, but he’s a 26 year old rookie who couldn’t hold a job in the AFL or CFL. He looked competent in the preseason against vanilla schemes, but you’d be foolish to think that means much come the regular season. Leno Jr. has been the 3rd highest rated OT in the preseason by PFF which probably means next to nothing, but at least there’s once rookie in the mix who could amount to something down the road. If Mills suffers a setback you can probably expect Leno to get the first look in relief.

The Bears parted ways with Ebon Britton yesterday which I view as a major disappointment. The guy was a major help last season as a jack of all trades. He lined up a FB, as a jumbo TE, as the starting RT when Mills got hurt and filled in for Long at OG. In just about every role he held his own. This preseason he was out with a pulled hamstring and never got a chance to compete. Frankly, I think the coaches are making a mistake by letting him walk and he probably was a casualty of those extra QB/RB roster decisions. Maybe he’ll go unsigned and the Bears can re-add him mid-season if needed. For a potentially shaky OL, I wish we had backups with a better pedigree.

In the final round of cuts the Bears dropped second year backup C/OG Taylor Boggs and Wisconsin rookie OG Ryan Groy. Boggs was projected to be the potential heir to Garza and was made expendable with the signing of De La Puente. Groy is a low upside UDFA. Both guys, especially Groy, will have a shot at the practice squad for better or worse. Earlier in the preseason they dumped Kyle Long’s brother Joe Long, no comment there. Wonder if the Bears will target any FAs on the OL as practice squad guys.

Defense coming up later.

10

Just some quick thoughts in response.

Yep. Going into his ninth fucking season in the NFL and being 31 years old he’s more mature, focused and charismatic. Now if he was only mature and focused enough to vaccinate his children. Or mature, focused, and charismatic enough to perform better than a sub-average journeyman QB.

I do agree that the Bears made the right decision keeping Clausen and Fales and wholeheartedly support the idea of developing a QB.

I’ll only add that I think the Bears will be a ton worse if Forte gets injured, which with 1800 NFL touches on his tires, may be coming sooner rather than later.

I thought it was a huge Meh. The Bears have two Pro Bowl wide receivers, an OK TE, and a RB who catches the ball, and a QB who focuses on his top targets almost exclusively. Their third WR won’t make a lick of difference this year unless Marshall or Alshon gets hurt.

Both. Good in pass protection, bad in the run game.

You know who I really felt bad for last year. Matt Slauson. He goes out, does a great job, has a great year, and some rookie who played just average but has the pedigree and story the press likes goes to the Pro Bowl while he sits at home. Pity.

11

DT: Jeremiah Ratliff, Stephen Paea, Will Sutton, Ego Ferguson
The defense last year was dismal and the lack of productivity from the from line was at the root of the problem. Injuries, age and a stale scheme all contributed to the problems here and the most obvious change is allowing Henry Melton to chase the money in Dallas. DE Corey Wootton was forced inside last year and was lost in FA as well. Izzy Idonije came back to town for a cup of coffee before being terminated again.

Ratliff turned out to be a decent gamble last year coming off injury but he lacks the explosion he had early in his career in Dallas. This year we’re hoping he’s healthier and more impactful, but his steady veteran presence is a nice compliment to the youngsters we drafted. Paea has settled into his role as a decent but not great NT and also provides stability if not excitement. I think it’s unreasonable to ask either of these guys to become disruptive playmakers but there’s no doubt that they’ll be important parts of the rotation who can complement the investments made a DE.

Of more potential interest are the 2nd and 3rd round picks in Sutton and Ferguson, a classic 3-tech and 1-tech respectively. I’ll be bullshitting you if I try and give any meaningful scouting or analysis on their preseason performances, interior DL play is tough to watch on TV and I haven’t dug deep enough on them. But, there’s some optimism in the potential they’ve shown. The most common narrative we hear is that the DT play will be rotated heavily, be quicker, stunt more and ultimately serve as a compliment to the additions at DE. Sounds good on paper, but just being healthy should be a step up.

One of later cuts was Nate Collins, a extremely useful guy who suffered a ACL tear last season. Not sure how diminished he was due to the injury but I suspect he will be missed, he was more dynamic than Paea or Melton for periods last season.

DE: Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Trevor Scott, David Bass, Cornelius Washington
Peppers goes to Green Bay and Allen comes to the balmy south from Minnesota. Musical veteran DE chairs in the NFC North. Allen is 2 years younger and a hell of a lot more explosive in the passing game while Peppers held the edge a heck of a lot better. Allen is probably a bigger injury risk but Peppers is going to be playing out of position at OLB. Allen’s a lot cheaper. I feel like the move was a big step up for the Bears who have struggled to get to the QB for the last couple seasons and Peppers won’t scare me a lick as a opponent, but I’m biased having seen all of Pepper’s warts and remembering all the monster games Allen has had against the Bears over the years…he’s just killed us. The Bears will use him in a rotation in passing situations hopefully to his benefit and mitigating his run stopping issues.

I’m more excited about the addition of Lamarr Houston who will probably play some at both DE and DT depending on the situation. Houston’s stats in Oakland were so-so but I blame that on the way he was used and circumstance. Houston have been an incredibly durable 3-down player and will give us everything Peppers was giving us and then some, as a composite with Allen we’re going to be much scarier on the edge. A less heralded acquisition was Willie Young. A young pass rushing specialist on the other side of the ball who was 15th in the league in QB pressures in Detroit last year. Young has had an excellent preseason and should make a great tandem with Allen on 3rd-and-longs. There could be justifiable concern here against the run, so that’s something to watch but I really like this rotation.

Trevor Scott and David Bass were also former Raiders DEs who the Bears have brought into the fold. Unlike Houston, I’m not thinking they represent much upside. Bass is a developmental guy with a similar body type and style to Willie Young who the Bears scooped up off waivers at this time last year. I’d say the 2013 version of Willie Young is his best-case scenario. He’s was manhandled on occasion last season but played a fair number of snaps due to injury. This preseason he’s flashed on occasion, but let’s hope he’s not playing as much this year. Scott’s nothing more than a warm body. Little upside as an older player and a guy who could find himself on the street if a upgrade presents itself in free agency this week.

Cornelius Washington is a very interesting developmental candidate. The Bears scooped him in the 6th round last year and kept him on the roster all season for fear of losing him to waivers. He played very little and has been a frustrating underachiever for most of his college and pro career, but physically he’s amazing. Some of that upside was starting to show this preseason making the choice to keep him much less of a stretch this year. I expect Washington to get a lot of reps this year are part of the platoon and if he’s able to press Young for playing time that would bode well for the Bears long term plans. It’s all just talk right now but stash it away.

I think it’s notable that there are no meaningful cuts to discuss on the DL aside from Collins. I worry that there weren’t more hard decisions here and more competition. They spent a lot of money and almost everyone here is new. Goes to show that there was a fair bit of neglect here until this season.

LB: Lance Briggs, D.J. Williams, Jon Bostic, Shea McClellin, Khaseem Greene, Christian Jones
I’ll be frank. This group terrifies me. They have sucked for 2 whole years now and almost nothing about the preseason has inspired a lick of confidence. Worst of all, Briggs has looked bad this camp. I’m hoping that’s just a bit of veteran malaise and not a serious decline in skills, but Briggs has been a pay-me guy and it doesn’t look like there’s another big payday coming so maybe he’s going to start mailing it in. That’s the alarmist point of view I guess, but in fairness Briggs has probably earned the benefit of the doubt here. We’ll have to watch week 1 to find out.

DJ Williams has been in town for 2 years now and I don’t know a damn thing about him. He missed the last 10 weeks of the season last year, was relatively anonymous for the first 6 and gets the veteran treatment in preseason and plays the bare minimum of snaps. I fully expect him to be a spectator for the bulk of this season too, but maybe he’ll prove me wrong. We’ll see.

The Bears let James Anderson walk in free agency to save money and clear a path for Bostic and Greene but neither guy has stepped up at all thus far. Greene looks particularly lost out there. It appears he hardly knows where he’s supposed to be and chases the ball like a Pop Warner kid. Occasionally that takes him into an INT or a big hit now and then, but it usually seems like mere coincidence more than anything. He’s athletic and makes plays when presented, but he’s not disruptive and he’s not a sound tackler. Bostic has been asked to do more and has been somewhat better, but he’s nowhere near ready to be the MLB. He’s been pushed over to the Sam where there’ll be less pressure to read and react which should help, but he needs to step up a lot. The Bears gave Shea McClellin a lions share of the snaps with the starters at Sam. If he doesn’t hold down the position those reps will cost Bostic a chance to develop.

About that McClellin experiment at Sam. I get it. Most people observing view it as a desperation move or an attempt to hide the fact that Emery blew it with the draft pick. And I suppose both those things are at least partly true, I also think there’s at least enough of a chance that it could work to make it worth trying. I hated the McClellin pick with every bone in my body, but it led me to watch damn near every play of his in college on YouTube. After that I was 100% confident that he was going to be an unmitigated disaster at DE which proved to be mostly true, but I saw that he was pretty damn effective playing a joker-type role where he was a freelancing, blitzing LB. Now, when he was in coverage he was basically a zone-blitz style guy and never a man cover guy locked onto a TE or slot but there’s probably a NFL scheme that could use him effectively. The Bears don’t have any concepts even close to that so making this work will require Mel Tucker to do something innovative. That might in fact be a bridge too far.

Christian Jones looks like the lone positive in this group. A UDFA with a few red flags has played out of his mind this preseason. He looks like he could grow into the starting Mike in a year and is a solid special teams contributor. He’s perhaps the only young guy of the group that doesn’t look completely asea in pass coverage.

They cut another UDFA in DeDe Lattimore who should merit a spot on the practice squad. Lattimore showed a nose for the football against second teamers and might be a contingency plan for Greene next year.

CB: Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Kyle Fuller, Sherrick McManis, Demontre Hurst
I’m concerned that the turkey timer has popped on this group. Heading into the season most were confident with the return of Tillman and Jennings, but watching them preseason hasn’t exactly been heartening. Tillman doesn’t quite look like he’s all the way back healthy and looks another step slower. He’s crafty and would be excused for saving himself in the preseason so it might be okay, but I’m guarded. Jennings is moving inside to the Nickel spot and hasn’t look entirely comfortable on the inside. He was never one to shy away from contact as a CB, but he’s small and doesn’t deal with blockers or TEs well. I wouldn’t be shocked if this were both guy’s last season with the team. I hope I’mm wrong because these two have been a strength of the defense for a long time.

Rookie 1st rounder Kyle Fuller is pushing Jennings inside and will be the starting CB in week 1. I have to say that he looks legit and seems like he’s completely NFL ready. If he’s as good as projected he will be Emery’s first successful defensive draft pick. If he flops, this secondary could make last years group look good by comparison. But, I’m optimistic.

Sherrick McMannis and Demontre Hurst round out the group and were chosen over veteran Kelvin Hayden. Hayden won’t be missed much, he could never stay healthy and when he was on the field he wasn’t the reliable presence you expect from a experienced guy. McMannis has been around for a couple years now and is a special teams guy. They like what they’ve seen from him when he stepped in to backup at CB/NB but he’s a very limited upside guy. He’s an important back of the roster guy but he’s no heir apparent for the veterans in front of him. Hurst is another second year guy who they are hoping develops while contributing on special teams. He’s been a pretty reliable tackler in the secondary but has been out of position more than you’d like and he really didn’t get on the field much last year. Maybe something has changed, but if there’s a upside guy out there on the wire the Bears need to keep an open mind.

S: Ryan Mundy, Danny McCray, Brock Vereen, Chris Conte
Take everything I said about the LBs and multiply it by 2. Yuck, I’m shocked that we didn’t get better here and I’m angry that Emery has me quietly wishing Major Wright and Craig Steltz were back. This might be the worst position group of any in the NFL.

Mundy was brought over as low priced veteran help but he was a major player in the Giants terrible pass defense last year, so I’m not sure how this should be appealing. Even in his early years on the Steelers he was no better than a 3rd guy. Chris Conte was a whipping boy last year and was one of the worst tacklers this side of Major Wright yet he’s probably starting in spite of missing the entire preseason with a concussion. Basically he held thee starting job solely because the guys brought in to compete were all so bad that Conte’s tape from last year was better…consider that.

Danny McCray is a special teams guy who could be forced into a starting role and while he’s been better than expected he’s still an overachiever with a very low ceiling. If we’re relying on him this season we’re in rough shape. Brock Vereen had everyone excited following the draft and started strong in OTAs and camp but he’s really faded as the preseason wore on. I’m not exactly sure what the biggest problems were for him but it seems like Vereen would have been released if there was anything resembling a better option out there. He’s a rookie and maybe there’s a chance he recovers, but he blew coverages and missed tackles regularly.

There were a bunch other warm bodies in camp who were cut, not a one is worth mentioning.

K Robbie Gould
P Pat O’Donnell
LS [del]Brandon Hartson[/del]
Not a bunch specific to say about these guys. Robbie is Robbie. Hopefully the retirement of Patrick Mannelly isn’t too disruptive, but we found out today that Hartson was cut. This means that the Bears have no LS on the roster and the guy who they’ve had for all of the preseason is gone. Does this mean they are trying to lure Mannelly back? Was someone in the league released that they want? Are they holding open tryouts? Who the hell knows, all I know is that the Joe DeCamillis era in Chicago has been nothing short of a disaster. Earlier in the month they let P Tress Way go who’s been a staple in camp for the Bears for the last few years. Pat O’Donnell was a draft pick with a monster leg, but there wasn’t a clear difference between O’Donnell and Way. In retrospect the Bears probably should have used that pick on another DB and gone with Way, but I have no concerns about O’Donnell’s ability.

I am however VERY concerned about the return and coverage units in general. We’ve been desperately seeking a return man and none of the candidates so far have flashed anything, rarely getting back to the 20 on kickoffs. Williams was hurt and released. Weems is a head case and crappy and was released. We kept Spurlock and Perry, 2 men to do 1 man’s job, and neither excels or adds much upside on offense. But, more concerning than the return game is the coverage units. We’ve been awful. The special teams have been a strength for the Bears for a long time but the bad coverage units are probably a symptom of a terrible back 7 on defense. Old DBs and WRs and shaky LBs are a recipe for shakey teams. It’s bad times.

So, there’s my review of the Bears opening day roster. The first post was fun and I got to talk about the potential of the back of the roster guys. This post was very not fun. Maybe the DL is great and the CBs are great again and we manage to be a middling defense, but make no mistake. It’s a house of cards.

Maybe I’ll go through the schedule and see what I think the projected record should be.

12

Well, the NFC North is represented in the first game of the year, with the Packers going to Seattle (gulp) to face the defending Super Bowl champ.

This isn’t a great matchup for the Packers. Seattle is a ball control, running team and the Packers gave up 125 yards a game on the ground last year. And they (of course) lost an important starter to injury before the very first game with BJ Raji out for the season at the NT position. Their D line is young and relatively small, and their interior linebackers are fine, but not anywhere near special. There is hope that Peppers will bring some thump to the run defense, even if he can’t get to the QB anymore, and Lynch may not be in form just yet, so it likely won’t be a blowout like the Super Bowl. But Seattle can just pound the ball, go to Harvin on play action, eat the clock to keep Rodgers off the field, and win a close game. It will be intriguing to see what Capers (their defensive coordinator) will do with their new hybrid (DE/OLB) players, but they are susceptible to just getting run over.

Still, Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy give the Packers a scary-good offense. If the Packers can get a couple big stops, maybe a turnover, and Cobb and Rodgers can work the underneath stuff, there is a possible win for the Packers.

Finally, football is here!

13

This week’s schedule (Times are in Central because to heck with the East coast):

Week 1: (Thur, Sept. 4) Packers at Seahawks, 7:30 p.m.
Week 1: (Sun, Sept. 7) Vikings at Rams, 12:00
Week 1: (Sun, Sept. 8) Bills at Bears, 12:00
Week 1: (Mon, Sept. 9) Giants as Lions, 6:10 p.m.

Like most sports fans, I have very little of anything insightful to say, so I’ll go with this. Revenge of the Fail Mary tonight with Green Bay looking to beat the Seahawks in Seattle. I predict a bit of a Sophomore slump for Eddie Lacy – he’ll still have a decent year but half of his yardage last year came against the Bears and he won’t be able to repeat that this time around. Green Bay also is lacking the big guys on the D line and I think that their linebackers will have a tougher time because of this. I also think Hamlet’s on track here with Seattle’s offense and couple that with the crowd’s ability to be noisy a-holes will make this a tough game for Green Bay.

Other than Peterson, I don’t see Minnesota having anything productive on offense. Sounds familiar. I think the Rams defensive line will come up big here once they get a few touchdowns into the game. Rams with the win.

Bears beat the Bills simply because in nature, a bear could totally catch a buffalo and destroy it. Science.

Both the Giants and Lions had bad seasons last year but I think that with Stafford to Megatron, the Lions will prevail here. I think Caldwell will provide a stabilizing presence with the team and they Lions will seem less manic then they were under Schwartz.

14

It should be noted that as terrible as the Vikings appeared to be last year, it wasn’t because of their offense. Their defense couldn’t stop anybody. The Vikings offense was statistically in the top half of the league, and that with terrible play at quarterback for much of the year. Of course, the offense was helped by the defense giving up quick scores all day.

I’m looking for the Vikings to mildly surprise people this year. As people have mentioned elsewhere, if games were only 58 minutes, then the Vikings would have been 10-6 last year.

15

I tend to agree, if only for the reason the Vikings went out and got Norv Turner. Their passing game last year was sub-par, but with Cassell and Bridgewater, I think they’ll improve in that area. I also like their O Line (Pro Football Focus had them as the 6th best last year), with Kalil, Fusco, and Loadholt leading the way. I think they will definitely sneak up on people this year. Unless that defense is as bad as it was last year. But with a healthy Harrison Smith and Mike Zimmer, who knows what is possible.

Unfortunately, the whole of the NFC North are almost identical teams, with potent (or potentially potent in the case of the Vikings) offenses, and bad defenses. 2014 could be the year of the shootout.

16

Have to jump in for a couple things. First…

…awesome.

I’m from Tucson, so take my defense of Carey with the appropriate grain of salt, but I have to defend him. First, there have been plenty of very successful, slow running backs. Terrell Davis was slower. Alfred Morris is slower. That’s off the top of my head. A running back can’t be tentative, they probably shouldn’t be lazy, but really, above everything else, they can’t be blind. If you can see your opening, see where your blockers are setting up their blocks, and see your cut, you can succeed being slow.

Second, I know Carey looked pretty bad this preseason. He was never big on maturity, so I’m not surprised he came in and probably didn’t take things seriously or have the correct approach. He’s also a rookie. So motivational tactics like pushing him to third string (he’s apparently second now) might work. What I know for sure is that he literally carried Arizona to what little success they managed, and put up incredible numbers even though everyone in the stadium knew the Wildcats had no other weapons. He’s incredibly tough and tenacious, and a city like Chicago will love him once he gets going. I really wish the Eagles had taken him. He’d be a wonderful complement to Shady.

The only people who use points as a measure of offense are those who are trying to make the offense look better than their yards indicate. Which isn’t necessary, since Chicago was fine in yardage too. Nobody uses points, because judging an offense, in part, on how many defensive and special teams touchdowns they score, is absurd. Somehow, this keeps coming up.

17

You’re reading too much into it. I was firing for effect. Point is, the Bears were a good offense. Doesn’t matter what metric you use.

18

Lions go 10-6 or 11-5 and win the division in a close race. It won’t be pretty, but there’ll be a lot of shootout games. Detroit ends the season with a top-5 offense by pretty much any measure.

Here are more complete thoughts, copy-and-pasted from my thoughts on a similar thread on Reddit:
Lions Offense: Top half unit. Top 5 passing attack, top half running attack. Stafford is top 5 in yardage and touchdowns. He even has almost a 2.5:1 TD/turnover ratio. Calvin finishes top 10 in yards with a few small injuries.
Bush has more total yards than Bell , but Bell gets more yards on the ground. Tight end becomes a position of riches, with some weird, “experimental” three tight end sets coming up. Fauria leads the Lions’ tight ends in touchdown receptions, with Ebron coming up behind him. Ebron gets the most yards. Pettigrew becomes a huge red zone target in the last half to quarter of the season. He’ll be a huge fantasy football pickup for about two or three weeks before the season ends.
Lions Defense: Bottom half unit. Fuck. The defensive line will be pretty damned solid. Linebackers will be a small step under an elite unit. Cornerbacks are going to be great against the run, bad against the pass. Safety play will be very solid. The Lions end up roughly even in giveaways:takeaways, with a slight edge towards takeaways.
Lions bumble a little out of the gate in the season and get losses to the Giants, Panthers, and Packers. The sky will be purported to fall. They’ll catch fire and won’t lose until week 13, home against the Bears, drop one against the Bucs, and they’ll win out from there.
Record: 11-5, probably good enough for the playoffs, but the division could be a very difficult one.

19

Yay, Vikings win. At this point they are all alone in first place in their division. It does help when the other team is down to their third string QB. I honestly did not see the game, but it seems that Patterson is an asset on offense. That means that Minnesota does have something else productive on offense.

I watched him a lot for the Vikings over the last few years. Does he still speed rush ten yards up field and then look baffled when either (A) the running back went behind him for a big run, or (B) the quarterback moved up and to the left to make a pass for a big gain? The Packers (and probably others) figured out his game and exploited it to great advantage, and he never adjusted.

20

Look no further than yesterday, where the Vikings go down to St. Louis and just dominate the Rams, a team that many like as a contender this year. Their pass rush got 5 sacks, which helped their secondary get a couple interceptions, and they kept the Rams’ offense in check most of the day. Cordarelle Patterson shows why he’s a first round draft pick, but he’s still not much of a factor in the passing game, which isn’t good for a WR. Peterson had very little room to run, but opened it up for some nice play action and a great reverse. Cassell avoided mistakes and was an efficient game manager. A lot to like in that win, and a good job coaching. I wouldn’t get too excited, because it’s the Rams and a third string QB, but a nice start to the season for the Vikes.

After the Packers just got moon pounded on Thursday, I was a bit sad, but seeing Cutler throw two interceptions (including a killer one in the 4th quarter where he throws across his body into traffic. How cool is that?) and Chris Conte just get pushed around by the oldest running back in the league put a huge smile on my face. Kudos to the Bills for winning despite having EJ Manuel as their QB. The Bears gave up almost 200 yards rushing, had only one sack, and Jared Allen was pretty much a non-factor; all bad signs for the defense. But they did hold the Bills to only 20 points in regulation, which should be enough for them to win. But … Jay Cutler. Heh.

Tonight the Lions go prime time against the Giants. I’m not sure what to expect, with the Giants being so very awful in the preseason, and the Lions defense being full of holes. But it’s football!