I don’t think Jules was talking about you or doubting you in the least. I think when he said: “I’ll go with manufacturing a contrived angle for $100, Alex”, he was talking about the “Elusiveness Rating” and not you.
The only reason the Pack would make that trade would be for the long run, since the Vikings Recieving corp is younger.
Jennings or Rice? Jennings for sure. Rice had a great season last year, but it was not much better than Jennings and Jennings has proven it over several years. Rice’s previous efforts were abysmal.
Driver or Harvin? Driver for sure, Harvin is talented, but his health concerns of course downgrade him and Driver has just proven himself the better reciever.
Berrian vs Nelson? I could see giving Berrian the edge here, although it isn’t clear that Nelson is the Packers number 3, it could James Jones. Nonetheless, I think the Vikings #3 is slightly better than the Packers #3 either way.
So as a Packer fan I would not make that trade today for this season.
Rice never had a good quarterback throwing to him before last year. A receiver’s stats are more dependent on the QB than any other position. Favre made Driver what he is. Give Driver Tavaris Jackson for a couple of years and what do you think would happen to his stats.
You guys seem to be ignoring Rice’s hip injury. He’s still on the PUP list, while Harvin has returned to practice.
Rice has been working out again and started doing cut drills on monday. Reportedly, his straight ahead running is fine. He’s day by day, and doesn’t really have a timetable, but he’s basically guaranteed he’ll be ready for week one.
There’s a lot of speculation that his “hip injury” could have something to do with his contract. He’s only supposed to make about a half mil this year, after a Pro Bowl year last year, and he now has Drew Rosenhaus as his agent. I don’t know how much truth there is to that, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rice make a miraculous recovery if he gets a new contract.
I certainly think Rice is talented and wold not be surprised if he duplicated his 2009 season. I was just commenting on the fact that the Packers would make the WR trade in a heartbeat.
Wow. That’s some pretty serious over rating of the Vikings WRs. I couldn’t see making that trade at all right now. In another year or two… who knows?
I don’t think so. People may disagree, but the Vikings WRs are younger, deeper and more dynamic. I’m much more worried about Driver’s wheels falling off this year than I am about either Rice’s hip or Harvin’s melon. Remember Driver had surgery on both his knees in the off season and hasn’t been practicing due to a calf injury that may be connected to the work done. He seemed OK in the preseason game, but if you’re going to bring up niggling injuries with the Vikings guys you need to include Driver too, plus the fact that he’s 35 fucking years old.
I like Jennings, he’s a very good WR, but he’s had a tendency to get dinged up and has a lot of games where he sorta disappears. In a offense as dynamic as the Packers with such a good QB that really shouldn’t happen. Driver is the Packer’s #1, Jennings is the #2. Sidney Rice is much bigger and is a prototypical #1 with size and speed. His non-Favre years simply don’t matter, if he’d been with Rodgers from the beginning of his career I’d bet dollars to doughnuts that he’d have had better numbers than Jennings in the same years.
I don’t think there are very many teams in the league who would choose Jennings over Rice and when they finally sign Rice to a new contract I think it’s safe to say that it will blow Jennings’ extension out of the water.
As for Harvin and Driver, the migraines are an issue, but even straight up for just this season I’d rather gamble with his head than Driver’s knees. Supposing both are healthy all season Harvin will outperform Driver as he matures and contributes on special teams. Age is a big issue, but even if you don’t look past this season I’d rather have a dynamic Pro Bowl 2nd year guy than a 35 year old with a limited ceiling coming off surgery.
As for Berrian versus the Packers #3 du jour it’s not even a contest. It’s not close, he’s not slightly better, he’s WAY better. His number took a step back because of Rice and Harvin, and he still nearly equaled Nelson and Jones combined yardage totals. Any argument to the contrary is bias pure and simple.
The only real debatable point is if you think Driver is a risk or not. If you think he’s not, that’s fine but it’s unfair to highlight the Vikings injury risks when comparing them. It’s also completely missing the point to point to past performance of the Vikings guys when Favre wasn’t there. Saying that Driver’s age isn’t a concern while saying the Vikings youth is a concern is difficult to buy as well.
I found this little tidbit worth a giggle:
I completely understand that coaches lie. But, as the article says: "“Chilly can’t even tell the truth about that,” the player said. “I mean, how ridiculous is that? What’s the big deal that he has to lie? Worse, he has to tell other guys to lie for him?”
It will be certainly be an interesting year in the NFC North.
The whole division will end 8 and 8.
Rozelle would love it.
Percy Harvin has collapsed at practice from a migraine and was transported to the hospital.
He wasn’t even practicing at the time.
That sucks. I hope the docs can figure out what ails him. A friend’s wife recently recovered from a 13-month long migraine after having nerve decompression surgery. Percy’s sound like they are no joke.
Hope it isn’t too serious and he is able to play.
Damn. Might have to reevaluate the level of concern there.
You know what would be ironic, if Harvin smoked weed all through college as that managed the migraines by basically self medicating. Now that he’s trying to fly the straight and narrow in the Pros and cut that shit out the migraines are damn near killing him.
No idea if medical marijuana has any real effect on migraines or not, but it was a thought that popped into my head.
Are you guys all insane? What’s going on here? What formula do you want to use? Which criteria will persuade you? DVOA isn’t good? I know yards allowed is your favorite defensive metric from a previous argument. Would you care to know how Green Bay ranked in yards allowed? I have a feeling it doesn’t matter, but how about second fewest yards allowed in the NFL, fifth fewest against the pass, and the fewest in all the NFL against the run. Not good enough? Seventh fewest points allowed in the NFL? Most takeaways in the NFL? Seriously, the level of “what have you done for me lately?” syndrome around here is staggering. I’m starting to feel like I’m getting whooshed because this is too much of a slam dunk to have so many people apparently not realize what happened last season.
I need to define my argument? What about this mess? The Packers’ numbers look good because they “had a hell of a QB having a hell of a year throwing to them…” … but the Vikings didn’t? Brett Favre had arguably his best year ever… and he was 41. Do you really expect a now 42 year old QB to repeat that? Coming off an injury?
“… and have had him for 3+ years.” He’s only started for two. I assume you aren’t making the argument that what Rodgers did when he wasn’t even starting somehow matters. Unless you’re trying to say it matters that he was in that offensive system… in which case you’ve clearly forgotten why Favre was such a good fit in Minnesota in the first place (hint: he knew the system).
I won’t bother trying to foolishly separate a WR from his QB. I won’t bother trying to foolishly project what a first year starting WR will do in his second season, especially not when his QB is so questionable. You can’t really separate these things, they don’t really exist in a vacuum. Would I rather have Driver, Jennings, and Nelson over Rice, Harvin, and Berrian? No, not if I’m running a team. But Green Bay’s group is better right now. They’re safer right now. This discussion is about right now.
Lots of “ifs” there. Again, the topic was implicitly about this coming season, and there is a lot more in that scenario than just “which group is better for this season.” I’d do that trade too, but I’d be considering it a net loss for 2010 and betting on 2011 and beyond, which is obviously what you are doing too in imagining that scenario. If given only a single season, 2010, I don’t do the trade. I don’t think Green bay does either.
Again, the “what have you done for me lately” syndrome is overpowering in its stink around here. I can’t believe you would dare imply that Favre doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions. Or that you somehow think he throws a lot of TDs. Care to guess when the last time he threw 33 in a season was? I bet you’re wrong. (It was 1997, by the way) I fully stand by my statement that Cutler and Favre are a statistical wash, and that they have essentially the same profile; questionable decision making leads to lots of interceptions, and a strong arm and good accuracy leads to a lot of yards and big plays. They seem similar enough to me.
Not having watched or paid attention to any GB games last year except the playoffs, I am surprised to find out that they really did have a good defense. The yards allowed measure sounds much more reasonable than the DVOA one, though, based on comparison to the Jets.
Did they have key defensive injuries late in the season, or did they just choke like bitches in the playoffs?
They were generally carved up by premier quarterbacks, Favre, Warner, Rpethlisberger
The Jets faced premiere QBs in the playoffs, too – Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning – but the Jets defense played a million times better than the Packers defense last postseason. It has to be more than that.
(Roethlisberger?! hehheh.)
The Packers fluffed up on some truly abysmal offenses last season. They got the Lions twice, the Rams, Browns, Seahawks, Buccaneers and the Bears twice, not to mention a Cardinals team that was punting the final game entirely. Any time they faced anyone worth a damn they got lit up with the exception of the Cowboys when they were in their funk.
I don’t care what the stats say, I watched close to every Packers game last year and their defense was middling at best. Read the local Wisconsin papers and the blogs. There isn’t a Packer fan out there that isn’t very concerned about their defense and none would argue that they were in any way elite last season. What happened at the end of the season wasn’t a surprise, though the magnitude of it was a bit of a shock. They gave up 30+ points to the Bengals and Bucs last season, neither team was a juggernaut.
Well, you’re in the wrong thread then. GO started the OP with that premise and I responded to it with that caveat in mind. You’re the one trying to reframe the argument to suit your biases. If you don’t see the value in discussing WRs in isolation then don’t quote our comments and retort against them. You don’t get to have it both ways by re-framing the argument and playing gotcha.
Also, you’re moaning about “what have you done for me lately” but if you read our first two posts you’ll see that neither of us quoted any statistics from the past nor talked about anything beyond this season. You are the one that brought past performance into the debate.
Let me put this straight. For this season, I would rather have Rice, Harvin and Berrian then Driver, Jennings and Nelson/Jones. Rice is far and away the best player in that group. And I think he’ll be even better this season, he’s on the way up. Harvin’s new migraine issue obviously changes the argument, but prior to the recent news the distance he was behind Driver and Jennings was smaller than the distance Rice is ahead of them. Berrian’s domination of the 3rd WR position simply seals the deal. Now if you think that Rice is a flash in the pan, fine. If you think Driver is timeless and the class of the division, fine. But if you want to have a debate about Favre’s impact on the position that’s a new discussion that we weren’t having. Feel free to start one if you must.