Yeah, see, that makes total sense as to why their yardage totals were misleading. Doesn’t do much to inspire confidence in DVOA, though.
EDIT: Yeah, I think if I had to choose either the Minn or GB recievers for just this year alone to play for the Giants and then I go back to my beloved Giants receivers next year, I would probably pick Minnesota’s. Assuming the migraine thing isn’t a huge factor, of course.
Again, LOL. Favre has exceeded Cutler’s career high in QB rating 9 times, including 2 out of the last 3 years. Cutler has yet to be anything but above average, and he wasn’t even close to that last year. Although it seems logical that Favre and Cutler will move towards each other this year, the gap is probably too wide to bridge.
Why the heh heh for Roethlisberger?
I would not be surprised if Favre was a big bust this year. Age is funny. You can move along quite well and then fall off the edge. He has had a few injuries and operations that have to wear on him. He has management problems. He is reluctant to practice and may start the season with too few snaps under his belt. I am skeptical that he can be a spark.
I have the same concerns as a Vikings fan, but given our other options he’s truly our best shot to three-peat as division champs. He has the highest upside by far and about the same downside. On a bad day he’ll be no worse than TJ or Sage on a bad day. For the record, I’m in the Sage > TJ camp.
At this point, you might want to be more worried about Harvin’s migraines than Driver’s legs. I still think you are overrating the Viking’s wideouts compared to those of Green Bay. Comparing the stats of Driver and Jennings to Rice and Harvin’s last year is basically a wash. The Viking’s duo had 5 more catches, but the Packer’s duo had 72 more yards. Jenning’s stats for his first three years are better than Rice’s for his first three. Going out to the third receiver, yes, Berrian has better stats than either of the Packers third or fourth receivers, but is that mostly because they were sharing time? I know I never considered Berrian the second coming of Jerry Rice when he was with the Bears. Just who is the Viking’s fourth wide receiver by the way? To sum up, do the Vikings wideouts have more potential upside? Possibly. Would I want the Vikings top four wide outs this year over Green Bay’s top four? Not really.
I will admit that Driver has to be nearing the end of his run. It’s probably a toss up on who will play longer between him and Favre at this point. Having watched the Packers for quite a while though, I think I would take their current receiving corp over any other I’ve seen going back to (and including) the Lofton era. It’s just not a concern of mine.
I do have several concerns though. Others have brought up the defense. What you see with the numbers is a product of the way Green Bay plays defense. When they can get a good pass rush and don’t leave their secondary isolated for too long, they can absolutely shut down a team. When that pass rush gets picked up or when they are facing an elite quarterback like Warner or Favre, they have the potential to give up a lot of yards and points. Are they the best defense in the league? Certainly not. Do they suck? Certainly not. The depth of the D line was a strength. It’s now a question mark. I think they have a very good linebacking crew. Their secondary is good, but high risk and is aging at the corners. That will catch up to them sooner or later. I do expect some improvement with this being the second year running a 3-4.
My biggest concerns though are special teams and the penalties, especially by the offensive line. Oh yeah, that line is a concern too. They really were pretty offensive at times last year. At any rate, the season is coming quickly. I’m looking forward to the Packer/Viking games. I think I’m even going to make it to Lambeau this year for their match up.
The question was specifically about playoffs, so citing an opponent from the other conference struck me as funny. Looking at last year’s schedule it appears Big Ben lit them up for 500+ yards in the penultimate game. Ouch.
It’s also funny because Roethlisberger is not a fantasy guy, meaning he’s not going to carve up any defenses unless they’re so inept that the Steelers decide to go all throw happy, much like how teams would run against the Raiders simply because the Raiders just couldn’t stop it. (Or was it pass? I forget.)
According to RotoWire, Sidney Rice is probably headed for hip surgery and may miss half the season. Total bummer…
But they may sign Javon Walker!!!
I actually kinda feel bad for Javon. Heckuva talent, but signing with and listening to Drew Rosenhaus fucked up his career. Well that and a knee injury.
Update: According to RotoWire, Rice already has had the surgery.
Who are the other Vikings WRs besides Rice, Harvin, and Berrian?
Greg Lewis (the guy who caught the last second TD pass from Favre against the 49ers last year), and Darius Reynaud. They also had Jamar Johnson but released him. Joe Webb is a strong possibility to move to WR, but from what I’m hearing on KFAN, the Vikings are looking to bring in either Javon Walker, make a deal with the Chargers for Vince Jackson or both.
There are also rumors that Favre might be working the Vikings to talk to the Patriots about dealing for Randy Moss, but I think that’s just talk at this point.
I think the Vikings just really need to hope that Percy’s migraines can be brought under control. They should let him smoke as much pot as he needs, as faras I’m concerned.
Dio - Javon Walker has been signed. I don’t mind him as a #3, but I do as a #2. I like the Vince Jackson idea, and can’t see the Pats giving up Moss.
In some way I feel responsible for all of this.
I predict that Donald Driver and Greg Jennings will have Pro Bowl seasons and lead the league in combined TDs. The Packers offensive line will gel and become the best in the league and Rodgers will get sacked less than once a game. Defensively their front 3 will dominate the weak NFC North blocking and Raji will be the best DT/NT in the league. Al Harris will make a full recover and Charles Woodson will win the Defensive Player of the Year award. You heard me!
I didn’t come in here to say “I told you so” or anything, but I do want to point out how funny the timing of that news was.
The Vikings traded for Greg Camarillo yesterday. Although you always wish for a pro-bowler to land in your team’s lap, I have to say I like this move as a stop-gap and as added depth once everyone’s healthy.
Well, the preseason is done, and we’re gearing up for real football. Hot damn!
I didn’t get a chance to watch any preaseason games, but I’m liking the Packers #1 offense, scared for their secondary, and hoping these minor injuries stay minor. The Pack look like a team that could hang 50 points on you, while giving up 50 too. Hopefully Capers’ vanilla defensive play calling and attempts at getting unused personnel on the field were the reasons for their poor defensive showing, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned.
The Lions lead the division at 3-1 after the preason, but, to be honest, their preseason was very, very important to them. Stafford is still an enigma and their O Line needs work, but Best has shown flashes of greatness and Megatron needs to get healthy. Unfortunately, their defensive secondary has some holes and injuries aren’t helping. Still a work in progress, but after a horrid season last year, there seems to be a glimmer of hope in Detroit.
The Vikings’ run defense looks as stout as ever, but more injuries to their already depleted secondary makes it hard to predict how they’re total defense will do. The huge question is whether their O Line can protect Favre and whether their receiving crew will miss Sidney Rice. I also have to question Favre’s ankle and whether his longevity streak is destined to end this year. Still, the Vikings looked fine overall. But there are concerns of a pending collapse.
The Bears’ preseason was my favorite. After free agency and the return of Urlacher and Briggs, and the addition of Mike Martz, this team looked ready to take on the world. But their preseason has been … disappointing for Bears’ fans. Poor protection (Martz’s offense needs really good protection), Cutler’s interceptions and mental immaturity, and coverage issues helped the Bears go 0-4 and look like a mess. Still, Peppers had a couple sacks, Forte had a nice long run, and a touchdown against the Browns in their last game means the bell has yet to toll for the Bears. Plus they start the season against the Lions. That’s a cure for most everything.
Now, let’s bring on the real football.
I think the key to the Vikings offense this year is going to be Adrian Peterson more than Favre. I don’t think Favre can duplicate last season on a gimpy ankle, but I have no doubt he can still manage the shit out of a game and make enough big throws when he needs to. AP needs to take some weight off him, though, and that means he’s going to have to have a breakout year. I know that sounds kind of odd to say about AP, but his stats have been a little deceptive over the past couple of years. He always seems to end up with his 100 yards a game, but in a lot of those games he gets 20 carries that get stuffed by 8 or 9 man boxes at the line of scrimmage, then he’ll pop one for 67 and the final numbers make it look like he had a good game when he was actually pretty well contained except for one or two homeruns. He needs to turn those two yard gains into 4-6 yard gains and really control a game. If he does that, then the Vikings offense has a chance to do smething similar to what the Broncos did when Elway finally got his two rings largely on the strength of their running game with Terrell Davis. So far, AP has shown himsef to certainly be a dangerous back and a homerun threat from anywhere on the field, but he has not been a ball control back, and that’s the level he needs to get to. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to do that if he just learns to be a little more patient (he tends to try to explode though gaps before they’re really open), he needs to become a reliable blocker on 3rd down and he needs to hold onto the freaking ball.
The Packers, I think will score a lot of points and give up a lot of points. I’m not convinced their running game is all that special and I thhink they’ll throw a lot. With the number of sacks Aaron Rodgers took last year, I would expect opposing defenses to tee off on him even more this year. I think the Packers should be in playoff contention, but the fashionable trend among pundits to make them Superbowl favorites is a bit overcooked. They don’t have the defense. I think the Saints, for instance can still clobber them on both sides of the ball.
I’ve already picked the Lions to be the surprise success of the year. I’m not predicting they’ll go all the way or necessarily even make the post-season, I just think they’ll have a respectable season for once – 500 or better --and won’t finish in the basement.
I think the Bears will go about 6-10 and finish in the cellar. The defense is old, it’s a tough division and I don’t trust Jay Cutler. Getting Chester Taylor from the Vkings was a god pickup for them, though. They won’t regret it. He’s a solid all-around back and a pro’s pro.
Dio, remarkably, I agree with about 95% of what you posted. 
I’m very concerned about the Packers’ secondary, with Harris and Bigby both starting the season on the PUP list, and Will Blackmon on injured reserve. And, not having Johnny Jolly will definitely leave us weak up the middle. But, I think the offensive line started to come around in the second half of last season (after being truly horrific in the first half); if they can get one more decent season out of Clifton and Tauscher, Rodgers shouldn’t be running for his life too often. I agree that they shouldn’t be Super Bowl favorites, however…that defense is just too suspect right now.
From the guys you never heard of file:
Yesterday, roster cuts were made to bring the rosters down to 53. Here they are:
BEARS
Al Al Afalava S
Richard Angulo TE
Freddie Barnes WR
Josh Beekman OG
Cornelius Brown CB
Jarron Gilbert DT
Levi Horn OT
Juaquin Iglesias WR
Kevin Malast LB
James Marten OT
Greg Mathews WR
Quentin Scott S
Tim Shaw LB
Kelvin Smith LB
Woodney Tureene CB
Barry Turner DE
Tim Walter C
Aaron Webster S
Edwin Williams C
Eddie Williams RB
Mick Williams DT
LIONS
Dré Bly CB
Rob Callaway DT
Caleb Campbell LB
Vinny Ciurciu LB
Brian Clark WR
Landon Cohen DT
DeDe Dorsey RB
Noah Franklin OG
Dan Gerberry C
Steven Hauschka PK
Jonathan Hefney CB
Jon Jansen OT
Eric King CB
Cliff Louis OT
Michael Moore WR
Paul Pratt CB
T.J. Rushing CB
Ko Simpson S
Tim Toone WR
Dante Wesley CB
PACKERS
Chris Bryan P
Chris Campbell OT
Jason Chery WR
D.J. Clark CB
Evan Dietrich-Smith C
Charles Dillon LB
Robert Francois LB
Breno Giacomini OT
Graham Harrell QB
Spencer Havner TE
Alex Joseph LB
Anthony Levine S
Kregg Lumpkin RB
Cyril Obiozor LB
Maurice Simpkins LB
Ronald Talley DE
Anthony Toribio DT
Chastin West WR
Patrick Williams WR
Jarius Wynn DE
VIKINGS
Colt Anderson S
Thomas Austin OG
Adrian Battles OG
Taye Biddle WR
Patrick Brown OT
Freddie Brown WR
Chris Clark OT
Ryan D’Imperio FB
Marquis Hamilton WR
Tremaine Johnson DT
Ian Johnson RB
Rhys Lloyd PK
Garrett Mills TE
Michael Montgomery DT
Logan Payne WR
Drew Radovich OT
Marcus Sherels CB
Nate Triplett LB
Javon Walker WR
DeAndre Wright CB
I must say there are no real huge surprises. Javon Walker couldn’t make it in Minny, Will Blackmon got an injury settlement from the Packers, the Bears cut their safety Al Alafalavalafalavala, and Dre Bly just got too old.
Other thoughts:
I was sad to see my guy Freddie Barnes not make the roster. The Packers ended up keeping 3 undrafted free agents. The Bears aren’t hesitant to cut prior draft picks like Jarron Gilbert and Juaquin Iglesias. The Packers will likely be looking for a KR/PR on the waiver wires. Teams have until 11:00 a.m. this morning to sign players, and then they can fill their practice squads.