Don’t worry about Liuget. He’ll be a stud. He was projected in the mid to late 20s after the bowl season. That’s before anyone starts watching any tape. Everyone is building their boards based off memory and what teams are on TV all the time and especially in the Bowls. That’s when Fairley was at his highest. Liuget played at Illinois and they had a disappointing year so not many people saw him then. When they settled down on the post BSC hype and watched tape of actual mid-season games Liuget jumped off the tape. He was actually Mocked as high as 10 before the Combine started. Going into the Combine he was a clear cut 3rd DT and now that Fairley is falling Liuget might even pass him. If I’m a Rams fan I’m pissed if they take anyone but him if he’s there. Even over Jones, Jones has some questions in my opinion and I’d prefer Hankerson in the 2nd.
Ok, bored, so let’s look at some actual examples. QBs drafted in the top 5 since 1980. The following are examples of successful quarterbacks who were drafted into what I think would have been considered at the time to be horrible situations. If there were multiple good players on the offense who had already established themselves as such (Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer), or if the problem last year had been a so-so offense paired with an awful defense (Philip Rivers), I tried not to include them.
'85 Browns: Bernie Kosar – In '84 the Browns had a good defense but the offense was wretched (at every position not manned by Ozzie Newsome), as it would be in '85 with Kosar at the helm. By '86, though, they were 5th in scoring offense.
'89 Cowboys: Troy Aikman – Aikman was drafted onto an offense with a number of players who would eventually be recognized as very good (or better), but who had yet to accomplish much, and (of course) who had not managed to produce points. Looking at most of the rosters on this list, actually, you see a number of players who were *about *to become stars, and I think it underscores one of the problems with waiting to get your house in order before drafting a QB: chances are, some of the players who will be stars on the next good Panthers team are already on the roster, disguised as something else. In any event, Aikman started pretty much right away, and both he and the offense in general were putrid for two whole years (last and then 3rd from last) before turning it around.
'93 Patriots: Drew Bledsoe – The previous year’s team had a good pair of offensive tackles and … absolutely nothing else worth spitting on (Irving Fryar left in the offseason, and Ben Coates was a total nobody at that point). Really awful.
'94 Oilers: Steve McNair – Horrid offense when he was drafted, but they did basically sit him for two whole years, and when he took over they were pretty ok. No reason the Bills or Panthers couldn’t do something similar if they shared your concerns.
'95 Panthers: Kerry Collins – Drafted onto a freaking expansion team that turned out to be better than anyone could have expected (hey, you never know), but, all things considered, had about the most disastrous start to his career imaginable. Didn’t show that he’d come through it intact until he became the full time starter for New York in his *sixth *season.
'99 Eagles: Donovan McNabb – The offense had some young, high-pedigree O-lineman, but nothing else. In the year before McNabb’s arrival, the offense was dead last in points (and DVOA, by a lot).
Obviously you could do a (somewhat longer) list of QBs drafted into hopeless situations who became busts, but that’s mostly a function of drafted QBs being really high-risk across the board, and of the worst teams having a harder time getting better in general. So, while I would agree that being stuck in a genuine disaster can (though not must) ruin a young QB, a lot of the time your team isn’t as bad it seems, and there’s a chance that you’ll knock your roster moves out of the park for the next couple years and turn things around right quick. Therefore, usually better not to overthink the decision: if you have a gaping hole at the most important position and you can fill it with a prospect that you really like, just take him and move on to Problem B.
Well put.
Donovan McNabb Comp% First three seasons as full time starter in Philly: 58.0%
Donovan McNabb Comp% Final three seasons as full time starter: 60.7%
Michael Vick career Comp% in Atlanta: 53.8%
Michael Vick Comp% in Philly 2011: 62.1%
The same exact things were said about both quarterbacks, routinely. If anyone can turn an inaccurate, highly mobile/athletic QB into a decently accurate pocket passer, it’s Reid & Co. And if anyone is going to help Locker achieve the extraordinary potential he exhibited before this last season, it’s the same group in Philly.
The idea here is value. Locker was a potential top 5 pick in 2010. Now, because of his poor 2011 season, everyone seems willing to pass on the guy. This is one of those few chances you have to get a guy with top level pedigree, whom your team has the best chance to develop into something great, for a discounted price. I think you have to take that chance if you think, at all, that he can capitalize… secondary needs be damned. Philadelphia made the playoffs last season with as many injury concerns as anyone else in the NFL (including the Packers, by the way) and they have built this team with a pretty good amount of available cap room. Get someone in free agency if those needs are so glaring. You don’t always get a chance to take someone like Locker in the second round.
Assuming of course that Philly saw something in him they could develop. It might be he just stinks.
And keep in mind, with Vick at QB, the backup QB becomes so much more important than with virtually any other team in the league. And no OT/CB the Eagles would get in round one or two would make a more direct impact on wins and losses as the QB who comes in when Vick gets hurt. Even if their #2 doesn’t play a single snap all season, developing him might be worth more wins overall than any OT/CB they draft in the same spots. It’s too important to ignore an opportunity like that.
The same thing happened with McNabb, except Vick isn’t quite as sensitive as McNabb is. Smart teams build a year or two before they have to, which is how the Eagles managed to completely revamp a roster without “rebuilding.” I think the potential benefits of getting someone like Locker in the 2nd round (you’ll notice I never mentioned taking him in the first) outweigh the benefits you get from the player you draft there to fill a need. I take that chance because Vick won’t last forever (or this coming season, perhaps) and you can’t afford to spend a couple years tanking with **this **team while drafting and developing a QB.
I think we kinda agree here. Yes, Andy Reid, given enough time, may be able to turn Jake Locker into a Pro Bowl QB. But at the very least, that recognizes that Locker is a developmental project, one who is known far and wide for having problems with his accuracy. If you want the Eagles to use a second round pick on him, I actually wouldn’t have a problem with that. If you think his junior year was what he can be, the 22nd pick in the second round is a fine place to take him. I thought the same thing with Jimmy Clausen last year, that the second round was a great value. And I wasn’t upset when the Packers used a late second to grab Brian Brohm as a backup QB (I am now that I know he sucks, but I wasn’t then). While I hesitate to use the term “discounted” for Locker’s value because he got worse, not better, his senior year, a later second round pick is fine for him.
But, and here’s a big but, I doubt he’ll be there. I think he’s going in the late first, early second round. So Philly, while their in a good position to grab a developmental project QB in the second, will have to pay dearly if they want Locker. To me, he’s not worth a first round pick, nor an early second. But I think that is where he’s going to go.
If I had a guy I “really liked”, I’d tend to agree with you. I don’t “really like” Newton at #1. I don’t “really like” Gabbert at #1. If Carolina takes Newton with the first pick of the draft, I think they will be making a big mistake, even if they “really like” him.
Hell, the Packers lost a ton of players last year to injury and still beat you in your own house for the NFC Championship in one of the biggest Packer Bears games ever.
Sorry, had to be done.
You’re right, though, DLine is, I think, the most important need in this years’ draft for the Packers. But the Packers still have Raji and Pickett, so it’s not horrible. And the Super Bowl ring. They still have that.
I’m not either. Too much wishful thinking, I fear. But he’s a rookie and there are reasons to hope.
I agree that Sherrod is softer than I’d like, he’s not got that mean streak or strength that would make him a beast. But I think you’re really wrong about his footwork and work ethic. Almost everything I’ve read says he’s got excellent footwork and can handle speed rushers very well. And he’s a 3 year starter at LT for a SEC team who stayed for his senior year. He’s team captain, got his business degree with a 3.54 GPA, he got a post grad scholarship, he does community service work, and a true scholar athlete. Saying he doesn’t have a strong work ethic is silly, and flies in the face of almost everything I’ve read. The knock on Sherrod is that he’s a bit soft, doesn’t have the killer instinct to finish blocks and may have problems with true bull rushes. But if he’s there at 32, I’d be thrilled to get him.
I’d be fine with Jacquizz in the 4th. But if it’s the Bears, they’ll probably grab him in the second, and then try and play him as a WR. I just have my little man crush on Derrick Locke, but I’d be happy with a lot of guys like that. Jacquizz. Noel Devine. Da’Rell Scott. The Packers have the luxury of being able to finally grab a return specialist and watching Sproles or Logan makes me want one of those kinda guys.
Yeah, I’m not sure I’m big into this class of them. Hell, even AJ Green hasn’t ever had a 1,000 yard season and he’s a top 5 draft pick. But I think I can trust Ted Thompson to find someone to fill those needs.
I think one thing that will hurt the Packers this year is the lack of the ability to sign free agents after the draft. When I look at how well the Packers did with Sam Shields, Frank Zombo, Erik Walden, and other as undrafted free agents, I’m concerned they won’t get a shot to sign some more talent.
Outside of Peterson and maybe Miller, there’s nobody in this entire draft I “really like”. Part of it is me not following it as closely as I used to and how if it’s not in the first round, it tends to get little coverage, but I get the feeling that this is just a bad year to have a high draft spot.
I think he’s worth a risk in the 4th round, but there are at least 15 other WR’s I’d rather take. Personally, it sounds like he’s got the Diva attitude without the diva production and he’s extremely raw, hasn’t played for a year and a half and was willing to throw away his senior season to get an agent. Nice upside, but I’d bet he’s out of the NFL within 3 years.
Most of those same things could be said about Dez Bryant. He’s not perfect and I wouldn’t be shocked if he had some character issues, but the Bears have a strong clubhouse and need an impact guy at the position. You gotta roll the dice. Little seems like a much better option than Baldwin for an even cheaper price. Getting a classy senior with huge production and a Pro Bowl WR body would cost them a mid first. Looking for a guy in the 3rd you compromise, id rather they compromise with a guy like Little as opposed to a guy who’s a munchkin or has iffy hands and won’t cross the middle.
Little is no Dez Bryant. Bryant had a year with 87 catches, 1480 yards, and 19 tds. Little had a year with 62 catches, 724 yards and 5 tds. Dez was an outstanding PR/KR too, while Little is, at best, average. Outside of being 6’2" and 225-230, there is no comparison.
You, and the Bears, can have him.
I don’t think you paid real close attention to the Chargers last year.
Not exactly a so-so offense OR an awful defense
The D stats are likely skewed by some of the worst Special Teams the NFL has ever seen, but the stats say…
Offense - #1
Defense - #1
That’s worth mentioning again. Philip Rivers had an amazing year, and if it weren’t for special teams, the Chargers were poised to go a very long way in the postseason.
The more I read, the more I am convinced that there is a great opportunity late in the first round to take advantage of bad, stupid teams as they chase back into the first round to reach for a QB. Just like the Patriots did to Carolina last year (really? A second round pick to move up to grab Armanti Edwards in the third round? Sure would be nice to have that #33 to grab a QB now, wouldn’t it?), I think smarter teams will be able to extort some nice picks from teams desperate to draft a QB. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I hope desperate teams really start to love Ponder, Kaepernick, Mallett, Locker, and Dalton and think they need to move up to get them.
I’m equally convinced that Marty Hurney has compromising photos of Jerry Richardson to still have his job after he’s botched so many draft picks the last few years. Don’t forget he traded away a #1 to move up for the underwhelming Everette Brown in 2009.
I remember really liking the Panther’s draft last year (with the exception of the move for Armanti Edwards). I think Greg Hardy, Brandon LaFell, and Eric Norwood were great selections, and I still like Clausen (boy they really fucked up his development though). But if they take Cam Newton at #1, I think they’ll seriously set their team back.
The Edwards pick and trade was unforgivable. I actually think Edwards might have a chance to become a contributor. Still, you don’t trade a #2 pick for a guy who might become a contributor. That alone should have cost his job.
I didn’t mean last year (2010) when I said “last year.” I meant the year previous to the Quarterback’s drafting. The year before Rivers was drafted, the Chargers were something like last in defense and 16th in offense (by points).
Ahh, I gotcha. That was an interesting dynamic back then - Drew Brees wasn’t playing very well, but hadn’t been around long enough to give up on either. But when the Chargers ended up with the 1st pick, and all those great QBs were available; well, it was obvious they were gonna draft one of them and let Brees hold down the fort until he was ready to take over.
Turns out the only one not on board with the plan was Brees. He took the pick as a challenge and turned himself into one hell of a quarterback. By the time Rivers took over 2 years later, the Chargers weren’t a bad team anymore. Now we just need Rivers to win a Super Bowl to match the one Brees got in NOLA.
You are aware that only maybe 2 of those guys fit your description (good team without a QB drafting a player they hoped to start)? :dubious:
Mcnown was a high pick; Cassel and Orton were late-round flyers; Henne went to a 1-15 team.