2011 NFL Draft

The Game Room
121
  1. Arizona Cardinals
    The vast majority of Mock Drafts I’ve read over the past few weeks have Blaine Gabbert locked in as the Cardinals pick. It makes a lot of sense really. This is a pretty solid roster overall, just a couple years removed from the Super Bowl. Offensively they are pretty much set, they have solid WRs and RBs and an offensive line with some minor holes and FAs that need to be resigned, but they aren’t in a spot where they should be looking for an elite talent at the top of the draft at either spot. It’s possible that they could snap up A.J. Green if this opportunity presents itself and they aren’t 100% convinced Gabbert is going be a star, but even with Breaston probably gone having 2 stud WRs and no QB might be too much of a luxury.

Why wouldn’t they draft Gabbert? Of course it’s impossible to know how highly they rate him and if he’s a 96 on their board they will take him, but if they think he’s a 90 it opens up the questions. The Cardinals could be one of the top candidates to trade for a Carson Palmer or a Kevin Kolb and like every other team at the top of the first round might be looking to get a value at the top of the second round at QB. Also, they felt good enough about Max Hall and John Skelton last year and entering the second year it’s possible that they aren’t ready to quit on them just yet.

On the defensive side of the ball the Cardinals need help up front. They especially need a 3-4 OLB and could use a ILB in later rounds. The down 3 are solid and Fairley probably won’t be a consideration here and with Miller off the board in this scenario it’s unlikely they’ll value any of the other options high enough to take them here. Quinn might get a sniff but I feel like that’d be a reach.

As I see it it’s a debate between A.J. Green and Gabbert. The argument against Gabbert being that you plan to trade for a veteran and don’t have time to develop a rookie on a team that was built to win now. The argument against Green being that you might not have a QB to throw to him and Fitz if the veteran option out there dry up and Skelton can’t hack it year 2.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

  1. Cleveland Browns
    This is probably the ideal scenario for the Brownies. There are really 2 big areas of need on this team, WR and D line. A.J. Green looks like a no brainer here and he fits the system the Browns are running perfectly. In all honesty there’s very little not to like about the pick. Green is a top 4 talent on most boards I’ve seen and at 6 he could be called a strong value.

On the other side of the ball the Browns have dire needs up front. They are shifting to the 4-3 and simply don’t have anything resembling the personnel to pull it off right now. Because of this fact and the jettisoning of Shaun Rogers they have to at least give passing consideration to Nick Fairley. On the off chance that the Browns have him rated as the top player on their board in spite of all the questions, and supposedly several teams still do based on the tape he put down last season, he’d be tough to pass up as he’s the ideal 3-technique to fuel a new 4-3 scheme. Quinn also could be in the mix but the Browns have a couple players that should transition acceptably to the DE spots already and Quinn’s missing a year makes him a bigger question than Fairley. There’ll be options at the DT spot at the top of the second round, perhaps Austin, Nevis or Taylor so grabbing Green is the smart pick.

A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

122

About the Cam Newton thing: I realize that everyone and their brother is reporting that he’s the pick for the Panthers and that might be the case. I haven’t yet heard anyone explain the buzz and aside from the Kipers and Kings of the world reporting it no one has cited anything resembling a source. Where there’s smoke there’s usually fire, but in this case I’m skeptical. Looking at the player and the roster and the coaches it’s a terrible fit. I’m convinced that someone in Carolina sees this and that, like the Pats and Colts, the Panthers are actually just posturing to lure a trade. Without a 2nd round pick a trade back would benefit them hugely.

If Newton does go #1 here’s what my Mock would look like:

  1. Newton

  2. Dareus

  3. Miller

  4. Green

  5. Gabbert

  6. Peterson

  7. San Francisco 49ers
    The Niners are probably hoping that my scenario isn’t the result. In my 2 listed scenarios the top players on the 49ers board are all gone. They’d love to add Peterson to give them the lock down CB that they thought they were getting in Clements. Harbaugh has publicly hedged in giving mild support to Alex Smith returning so perhaps he sees that Newton and Gabbert will both be gone. They could use a OLB or a 5-technique but there isn’t a clear value at this spot.

Defensively they aren’t likely going to be in the market for the supposed top players remaining in Fairley and Bowers who project as classic 4-3 scheme players. The Niners need a pass rush badly and with Manny Lawson on the outs a OLB would be a need pick here. That leaves Quinn, who some think could convert to the upright position, Ryan Kerrigan and Aldon Smith. In my view none of these guys would be a value here. Quinn, Kerrigan and Smith are all 4-3 conversion guys and while Quinn and Kerrigan are both very athletic and could probably transition to the position this is too high to pick a developmental prospect. If OLB isn’t an option their second most pressing need appears to be 5-technique, and unlike the OLB spot there are value picks available here. Watt and Jordan are prototypical 3-4 guys that could bookend Justin Smith for years to come.

Looking away from the line the Niners could be in the market for a CB even though Peterson is gone. I don’t like the value of the remaining players here but some have both Amakamara and Jimmy Smith rated just behind Peterson and if the Niners feel that getting a CB is a better value here than either of the other two spots I wouldn’t be shocked if they went in that direction. I prefer Smith regardless of character issues to Amukamara who I don’t see as a very good cover corner.

In the absence of any clear best player available I expect the Niners to take the safe route and go with what should be a known quantity with this pick and take Cameron Jordan. I think he’s a much safer choice than Watt who has a bit of a one-year wonder quality and with experience in both the 3-4 and 4-3 scheme should be future proof. Scouts view him as a reliable, steady player who will make an already talented defense even better. Coming from Cal you can expect Harbaugh to know him very well and he’d be a home town favorite.

Cameron Jordan, DE, California

  1. Tennessee Titans
    The Titans might be in the worst position at the QB position of any team in the league. They only have Rusty Smith under contract and with new leadership in place that doesn’t include Heimerdinger it’s unclear if either Young or Collins would have any value should they return. Munchak presumably would be looking to install a run heavy vertical scheme which could make Locker or Mallett a decent fit if they can justify drafting them this high. Of the two I greatly prefer Locker and I’m probably on an island in thinking he’s still worth a top 10 pick, supposedly Locker has been researched extensively by this brain trust and his mobility might be an asset alongside Johnson. With regard to Lockers accuracy issues, it’s interesting too me that he was so low on passes overall but was then over 70% outside the pocket. I read into that that there isn’t an inherent problem with his accuracy because those throws are traditionally tougher, it’s more a technical and/or scheme issue. For a team like Tennessee that’ll probably run a lot of play action and bootlegs, Locker could be just the fit.

Looking elsewhere the O line was a disappointment last year but this is mostly the same group that was so good in years past. Munchak will probably look to coach them up and if they add a guy or two it’ll be in the interior later in the draft. The D line was flat out bad last year and it’d over paid. They drafted a DE last year and could look to add another this year with Babin possibly gone, inside they have a veteran group who disappointed and it’s unclear if they’ll rebound or if they need to move on there. That makes both Quinn and Fairley strong possibilities at this pick and it’s time to start asking if Bowers is falling unnecessarily. All three guys bring something to the table and with Munchak wanting size opposite Harvey Bowers might be a better fit. Fairley however is the guy who’ll get most of the attention, he’s frighteningly similar in reputation to Haynesworth and who knows if the Titans will want to go down that road again. The Titans are a franchise who will roll the dice with a character issue guy and under Fisher liked to walk that line between aggressive and dirty so if Munchak follows suit Fairley might be a match made in heaven. The back 7 were just so-so last season and need help but the value isn’t there in the first round. CB isn’t a need and that’s the only position where you can get value here.

So, do the Titans fix their most glaring need and the toughest position to address by taking Locker or do the roll they dice with a couple question marks on the defensive side? I have to imagine that Munchak was very frustrated watching that Young/Collins drama play out and wants a fresh start and hiring Chris Palmer tells me that he wants to groom someone at the position.

Jake Locker, QB, Washington

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I’d be happy with either of your scenarios - Green or Peterson would be my top 2 picks too. Well, Dareus I guess, but I don’t think he’s realistic.

For the Browns I want:

  1. Dareus
    2a) Peterson
    2b) Green
  2. Von Miller

I might even put Green ahead of Peterson because of need. CB would be a luxury (although how badass would a secondary of Haden, Peterson, Sheldon Brown, and TJ Ward be?).

Those are the only guys I’d even want at #6. If there could be a 3-8 slot trade down, I’d want

  1. Julio Jones
  2. JJ Watt
  3. Nick Fairley
  4. Cameron Jordan
  5. Ryan Kerrigan

Fairly scares the crap out of me but I guess for completeness sake if we traded down to #10 or something and he was still there he might be worth the gamble.

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  1. Dallas Cowboys
    The Cowboys fell apart last year largely because of their defense. The O line is getting a lot of talk especially in light of the Romo injury and they weren’t very good last year but I’m not buying the speculation that they are definitely taking the top OT on the board. Consider that the Cowboys might not even be looking at RT as their biggest need with gaping holes at both OG spots. If the pundits are right and Garrett feels that protecting Romo is the top priority here you have to ask what the best value is. Tyron Smith is a puppy and while he’s a physical freak he’s not exactly NFL ready, most people project him as a LT but his college experience is exclusively at the RT spot. With his athleticism could theoretically develop into an elite run blocker. Right now he’s a long ways away and lack strength. The other option is Mike Pouncey who’d step in immediately at either OG or C pushing Gurode to one of the G spots. I think Pouncey would actually do more to improve this team this year than Smith and could really help the running game. Can you take a C/G with the 9th pick in the draft?

Back to that awful defense, the Pokes added Rob Ryan in the offseason to invigorate this 3-4 and he’s got some work to do. The Cowboys field one of the worst secondaries in all of football and need help at all 4 positions and they have an aging LB group, especially on the inside. I don’t see them looking at the LB position here since they don’t have a serious need on the outside. The other hole in in the 5 technique and there’s only one player left on the board who’d make sense there and that’s J.J. Watt. Watt is an attacking DE who shows good quickness and still has room to add some bulk. He’d be a terrific addition next to Ratliff. The big question with him is the lack of experience, he’s only played 2 seasons at end and could be a high effort guy who plateaus at the next level.

If Watt isn’t the pick they should address the glaring need at CB. There’s two players on the board they could look at. Jimmy Smith and Prince Amukamara, they are diametric opposites. Smith is the classic character concern guy with drug issues and arrests. Amukamara is probably one of the classiest guy in the draft. On the field I think Amukamara is a liability. He has all the tools, he’s got good size and speed and tackles well but he wasn’t tested much in college and got beat deep occasionally when teams finally came back his way. He seemed to occasionally lose focus and was too eager to jump routes. Smith is the bigger and more physical of the two and has the edge that a Ryan defense might covet. He’ll presumably be left on an island on occasion and Smith invites that. The Cowboys have never shown any hesitation when it comes to taking character issue guy and Smith would be another in a long line of suspects. The difference is that the Cowboys wouldn’t be getting him at a discount like they usually do.

Reach a little on Amukamara or Smith? Reach a little on Watt? Reach a little on Smith or Pouncey? Doesn’t feel like a great situation to be in and you have to imagine that they’d love to trade back. I’m going to guess that Garrett sides with the offense and takes the big kid from USC, he’s got those elite physical tools that Jerry is apt to like and they’ve got to protect Romo after suffering last season without him.

Tyron Smith, OT, USC

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Miller and Watt don’t make much sense for a 4-3. Watt might be able to play a 7 technique but he’d be a reach if that’s how you want to use him. Miller might be able to learn the 7 technique too, but it’s a complete diversion from where he was used in college and you can’t ask him to play the WLB position or else he’s just wasted talent.

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  1. Washington Redskins
    The Redskins are a complete mess, which isn’t surprising since they’ve been a mess for going on a decade now. That they haven’t been worse is something of a surprise honestly, with their history in the draft and some of the awful free agent signings they could have been in Lions/Rams territory.

On offense this team needs help pretty much everywhere. The O line for a change is a position of relative strength, but that’s relative to the rest off the offense which isn’t saying much. The cupboard looks bare at RB but this is Shanny we’re talking about so I’m sure they won’t be considering Mark Ingram here, though that could be pretty interesting. At WR they’ve got a bunch of smurfs and haven’t made much indication that they want to bring Moss back. Julio Jones would really help out this group and if they do bring Moss back they’d have a heck of a threesome with Armstrong. Still, they are one of the many teams in a pickle at QB. It looks like Grossman will be the man coming back next year and while he catches more grief than he deserves he’s not a winning NFL QB either. Is it worth adding a WR to a squad with so many other holes? In this scenario there isn’t a QB option for Shanny here but if I’m wrong about the Titans Locker looks very much like a Shanahan QB.

Defensively it’s a frigging joke. In perhaps the most ill advised and poorly executed move of the season the Redskin tried to switch to the 3-4 using personnel that wasn’t just ill fit to the scheme but actively pissed off by it. That this decision wasn’t more widely panned is a mystery to me. Haynesworth is a jack off, but in that particular instance he was 100% correct. A couple players benefited from the move, Carriker and Fletcher flourished under the system but aside from them the rest of the front 7 played lost or old. The Redskins will again be punished for this move because all the vast talent on the board on defense fits the 4-3. Bowers, Quinn, Fairley might all be first rate values here but they’d be inviting more grief by drafting any of them. It’s too early to be considering Cameron Heyward to replace Daniels and the options at OLB are troublesome.

There are some nice values on the board at CB but that’s the one position where the Redskins aren’t in a desperate position. They look to be letting Carlos Rogers go which is crazy but could indicate a need for a CB but Buchanon was solid when he played (Incidentally, I hope the Bears try and sign Rogers, he’d be a great Tampa 2 CB opposite Tillman.) We’ve see that Shanahan tends to not value the D line as much as he should and that was his undoing in Denver, will he continue to try and make do in Washington? Shanahan loved Champ Bailey and might look to find a similar player in this draft. He might say damn it all and grab the stud WR here. Frankly I haven’t a clue.

Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

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  1. Houston Texans
    Yet another possibly ill advised defensive scheme change. Adding Wade Phillips was probably a good move, the man can coach defense and can spot talent, but taking a defense that was abysmal last year and asking them to learn something new might be a really tough process. If this move ends up wasting their best player in Williams it might be the last straw for Kubiak. All that said, the down 3 are actually halfway decent fits in this system if Williams can handle the Bruce Smith role. I doubt the Texans consider a DL in this spot. The LBs are also slot in well on paper, if any of them can get on the field. Cushing, Barwin and Ryans all were somewhat ill fit in the 4-3 and might make big strides this season if they adjust. They do have a hole to fill with the 4th LB, probably on the outside, but I’m not seeing a good fit here. Bowers and Fairly look to slide once again.

The real hole is in the secondary. The Texans drafted a CB last draft who flopped but they can’t give up on him yet. Adding another young body back there might be just the solution. If Jackson rebounds and develops in year two under Phillips then another CB would allow them to move Quin or Allen to the FS spot and improve the whole unit. It’s tough to say that a team that was this terrible in the secondary could be making a luxury pick by adding another corner but this would be back to back drafts with a 1st round CB. If Jackson can’t cut it and is a complete bust, well that makes picking a CB here a necessity.

On the offensive side of the ball they are fine. No point in covering that in any detail just yet. They might want to get Andre Johnson some help and add depth on the inside of the line at some point but not in round 1. I think the Texans will go with a CB here and they won’t take on the head cases the way some teams might. That makes the selection an easy one.

**Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska **

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  1. Minnesota Vikings
    The Vikings are pretty spotty for a team that’s only one year removed from a season that saw them an ill advised Favre toss from the Super Bowl. On offense the biggest question mark is at the QB position. In this scenario there’s no one worth taking with this pick unless you really like Mallett and I doubt anyone likes him enough to draft him here. Ponder might be a nice fit in this system but you need to roll the dice that he’ll be there in the second round. I actually see the Vikings as the perfect trade partner for Kevin Kolb, the system matches up and he’d excel indoors. The Vikes want to win now and could be willing to pay the price to get him in picks.

The RB and WR positions are set though resigning Rice will have to be a priority. That leaves the O line as a major area of need. Casual observers may still think this is a quality group but the big names have trailed off badly. Hutchinson is a shell of his former self and McKinnie gives inconsistent effort at best. Loadholt isn’t the road grader they expected him to be an has been a major liability in pass protection. The interior of the line has been dinged up and soft for a couple seasons now. They have a lot invested in the position so they might not be willing to invest even more but adding a guy like Pouncey might go a long ways towards making this running game even better.

Defense is where this team is most likely going to look for help, and they could use it at multiple positions. The LB position is probably the most steady spot and it’s unlikely to be addressed here. On the back end they are a very ordinary group that needs impact players. There won’t be a safety worth considering here and while they definitely could use a corner the position isn’t really dire enough to spend a high pick on it, expect them to look later in the draft here. Which brings us to the D line. The Williams Wall is over and the tandem of Ends could also be breaking up. Allen isn’t going anywhere but his best days are behind him and Edwards might be off in free agency which makes finding a pass rusher a prime need. The Vikings look to benefit greatly from the glut of 3-4 teams picking at the top of the draft and the surfeit of 4-3 prospects and they’ll probably have their pick of Bowers and Fairley, two guys probably rated much higher than this on a lot of boards. With the injury issues around Bowers and the rarity of elite pass rushers from the 3 technique Fairley would be really tough to bypass. Fairley plays like a guy who might really benefit from the turf in Minnesota and Detroit too.

Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

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I’m not so convinced Watt can’t be a 4-3 DE, although I’ve only seen combine results and highlights and stuff. He had the 2nd best short shuttle amongst amongst DL and top 3 short shuttle. 10 yard dash in the low 1.6s. He seems to be pretty quick. He does lack elite explosiveness but I don’t see why he couldn’t be a strongside LDE that moves inside for passing downs in a 4-3. I think if his numbers were the same but he was 275 instead of 290 he’d be looked at as more of a 4-3 DE even though he manages to put up those good numbers at that weight. But again I’m not really that into the draft this year so there may be something I’m missing.

Von Miller you’re probably right, he doesn’t really have a natural position in the 4-3, but based on the hype, he sounds like the sort of guy you can design your defense around.

130

Here’s my list of My Guys. These are guys I think will find more success in the NFL than their draft position would indicate. I’m all about value in the draft, and I expect these guys will be good value. I’ve put them in order of round I’ve seen them ranked, but if they go relatively close they’re still my guys. There’s more guys in the later rounds I like, just because they’re a lot cheaper.

First Round

Von Miller, OLB, Texas

2nd Round

Derrick Sherrod, OT, Miss. St.
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Christian Ponder, QB, Fla. State

3rd Round

Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada
Ras I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Leonard Hankerson, WR, U. of Miami

4th Round

Derrick Locke, RB/WR/KR, Kentucky
Ahmad Black, S, Florida
Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
Mason Foster, OLB, Washington

5th Round

Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State
Mark Herzlich, ILB, Boston College
Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno State

6th Round

Brandon Fusco, C, Slippery Rock
Bilal Powell, RB,. Louisville
Willie Smith, OT, E. Carolina
Doug Hogue, OLB, Syracuse

7th Round

TJ Yates, QB, N, Carolina
Your Guys

These are guys I wouldn’t want to draft this year. I either think they’ll be complete busts, or that they’ll be overdrafted. For example, Cam Newton is certainly worth a shot late in the first round, but him going #1 is a “you guy” moment.

First Round

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri (fine in the late 1st)
Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Mike Pouncy, OG/C, Florida (If his last name was anything but Pouncey, he’d be a 3rd rounder)
Marvin Austin, DT, N. Carolina
Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona

Second Round

Jonathon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
Casey Matthews, LB, Oregon

Now I really should go see who I liked/disliked 4 years ago and laugh at myself.

131

Thanks for the very lengthy writeups you’ve provided for each pick. It looks like a lot of work went into each one, and they’re interesting reading with lots of useful information.

I don’t disagree with your statements so much as I want to expand on them

It’s true that with a 3-4, the Texans’ DL is going to be Williams, Smith, and a NT to be determined. They’ll try Earl Mitchell or Shaun Cody at NT, which I can tell you right now won’t work full time, even in Wade Phillips’s version of a 3-4. I’d like to see them look at Taylor in the early 2nd, Paea in the 2nd, or Fua in the 3rd, but we’ll see. And with the lockout, they can’t try and trade Mario Williams, which is unfortunate, despite him being the best player on that defense when healthy (and/or motivated). Still, from what I have read at Lance Zierlein’s blog, and heard around Houston, the Texans aren’t opposed to taking another DL here, if they know he can contribute, and he’s a high character/motor guy. Williams is in a contract year after all, and has been hurt enough to affect his performance 3 out of his 5 years (sports hernias, lisfranc issues). Moreover, his next contract has good odds of being the highest for a defensive player in the NFL, and I doubt the Texans want the fiscal headache of paying him. Williams may indeed have the Bruce Smith role in this defense, but he does not generate the pressure (despite a large sack total) to warrant paying him like Smith, IMHO.

So, a DL like Watt (who I understand is just about your prototypical 3-4 DE), or a high character/high motor guy like Ryan Kerrigan, is not out of the question, and is IMO probable, despite the glaring holes at DB. Zierlein made the comment that if Fairley falls to the Texans, it’s probably for a reason that will make the Texans also pass on him. Too bad, as I think he’s the kind of guy who plays very hard and well with a chip on his shoulder, and falling that far will give him that kind of a chip. I agree that he’s difficult to fit in a 3-4, but that is why D. coordinators make the big money. The Texans have traditionally stayed away from guys with any sort of character issues, preferring to trade talent for character, (see Okoye, Amobi) so even if Fairley falls this far, I don’t see the Texans getting him. That goes for Quinn too, damnit. Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Missouri, is getting a bit of ink from places like Walter Football as a potential choice here.

Further, I have heard TPTB are not sold on Amukamara as a shut-down corner. Peterson, yes, but not Amukamara. Zierlein indicates that the Texans will probably go FA here (please, dear God, let it be A$omugha.) with additional DBs added in Rounds 2 or 3 (probably whichever one they don’t draft a NT).

If they don’t go 3-4 DE, then they’ll go OLB, before DB, I predict. Connor Barwin is making good progress, but he and Ryans suffered horrendous injuries, and there’s no guarantee that either of them will come back 100%. So, plug in Smith, Quinn, Ayers if they feel like being the cleverest kids in the room again, Jordan if he doesn’t go as early as you have him (he can play OLB in certain situations); but my gut pick for who the Texans will pick is Ryan Kerrigan. As Walter Football describes him:

This is pretty much a wet dream for Texans management. As #11s a bit of a reach for him, I can see them trying to trade back and pick up another 2nd or 3rd rounder. I would much prefer Quinn or Fairley—I think they’re better players even if they don’t precisely fit your scheme’s needs. As I wrote earlier, with this many talented players at DE/OLB, it will be hard for the Texans to screw up this pick.

I will say also, that if Julio Jones is available, it will be very difficult for the Texans to pass him by. I agree with your statement that the offense is fine, and it’s the defense they really need to worry about. Still, they are not satisfied with the performance of their WR 2-X, especially after giving Kevin Walter all of that money. Daniels returning, and talking smack that people should pick him for their FF leagues,as he feels as fit as he did his rookie year, should make things a little easier for everyone else. That said, I can easily see them grabbing Jones here, though I will punch a wall if it happens.

132

I think it’s extremely unlikely that Sherrod, Ayers and Ponder go in the 2nd round. It’s more likely that all three go in the first than the second, and it’s looking like almost a lock that Sherrod and Ayers are first rounders. Similarly Dowling and Hankerson are locks to go in the 2nd round, maybe even the very top of that round, and Moch is shooting up boards too.

133

Quite possibly. A round above where I listed them could still be good value, just not the extraordinary one where I listed them. I think most of my guys will perform like a round above where I listed them.

134

Little signs and rumors point to Fairley being a serious consideration at #6 for the Browns. People are making me hate him less by pointing out his productivity, and how his head case issues are probably overstated, but he still scares me in a way Peterson or Green don’t. But man, I do love to watch disruptive 3 techniques - it may be the single most fun position for anyone to be dominant at. I only wish that if we do go with Fairly we’d kept Shaun Rogers. I know they’re sort of playing the same role, but if you were to have a one gap upfield system with the two of them in the middle it would be insane.

135

Agreed. I think if he slid down to the Lions, and he ended up being productive, I think we’d have an elite defensive line unit for sure.

136

He was 26 total tackles behind Suh’s stats in his last year, but they had the same number of sacks and interceptions. My take on that is that Suh’s motor is just so much better than that of Fairley, who has been known to take plays off, and that Suh is much better as a run stopper than Fairley is. In addition, Suh had much better stats in his prior year than Fairley did, so Fairley is seen as a one year wonder (I think he was a JUCO guy). He’s got nice upside, but I think he’s a guy who, like Albert Haynesworth, is playing for a paycheck and will let up once he gets it. He’s got first round talent, it’s just the age old game of trying to predict how he’ll do as a pro.

137

I think Fairley would make one scary 3-4 DE, particularly in one of those hybrid styles where he’d be effectively playing inside half the time.

138

ESPN is reporting that a U.S. district court judge is ruling in favor of the NFL players in their request to end the owners’ lockout. The owners will request a stay on the judgment so they can make an appeal. This sounds like a big assist to the players side of the negotiations.

139

I don’t really remember what Rogers played in Detroit’s version of the 4-3 or know what the Browns scheme will exactly look like, but in a Tampa 2 style system Rogers would have been a perfect 1-technique NT alongside Fairley. In Tampa 2 systems they usually employ one gap penetrating DT and a 2 gap NT who occupies blockers and protects the MLB. A 3-4 NT like Rogers who got upfield would have actually been better suited to that role than a natural 3 technique.

140
  1. Detroit Lions
    The Lions have only drafted outside the top ten once in the last decade so this pick is a bit of a new experience for Lions fans. Will they screw it up? Their recent track record has been pretty good but it’s not as tricky when you’ve got to plan for more scenarios than who the top two or three players in the draft are. Looking at the offense this team is in pretty solid shape. They are set at QB and with Best and Megatron probably won’t be spending a high pick on a skill position. They need some depth at both spots later in the draft, but I can’t see them looking at either Green, Jones or Ingram. The O line might get a look, but they are better there than a lot of teams and might be the soundest group in their division. The only way I see them looking at OT here, in this somewhat lackluster group, is if they are completely blocked out of all the defensive options they like.

Speaking of defense, that’s where this team was really killed this year. They added Suh, and he is special, but the guy needs some help. Along the rest of the line they were solid but not great. They aren’t really in dire need of more pass rush but they could really use some depth here and Vanden Bosch is no spring chicken. Maybe they’ll view Bowers or another DE as too good a value to pass up but this isn’t a pressing concern. The back 7 however are a really thin group. The linebackers are a bit of a joke and after jettisoning Sims and Peterson they don’t even have enough warm bodies. They could look to find a Will or a Sam at this spot, but 4-3 OLBs tend to be easy to land in the middle rounds and this draft doesn’t really feature much in the way of traditional LBs at the top. The secondary is perhaps an even greater need than the LB position with Chris Houston unsigned and a bunch of nobodies filling out the other spots. The only spot they can feel secure in is Delmas at FS. They probably won’t be targeting a SS this high in the draft but with the top two CBs off the board in this scenario they might do something unexpected.

This might be a frustrating scenario for the Lions, they’d have to debate if they trust Jimmy Smith enough to make him the pick here at their greatest need. Do they reach for an Anthony Costanzo to replace Backus or is there another OT they like better? Do they roll the dice with Julio Jones and give Stafford another weapon? Do they pick up Akeem Ayers to man the Sam? Do they grab one of the many DEs that are left on the board to improve the pass rush? It’s a tough situation and they might be a prime candidate to trade back. Personally, I’d draft Jimmy Smith here but I have a suspicion that the Lions will avoid the character issue guys and look towards boosting their pass rush.

Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson