2011 NFL Draft

The Game Room
141
  1. St. Louis Rams
    This is perhaps a dream scenario for the Rams. Everyone and their brother has pigeon holed just 2 players for the Rams in this spot. Corey Liuget and Julio Jones and as luck would have it both are available to them here. They have a few other needs but they pale in comparison to these two and the values simply aren’t there. They need to find another RB to share the load with SJax and could use an interior lineman but neither would be a value here. On defense they’d love to upgrade their secondary and replace Atogwe but like the Lions, they won’t consider a CB with Peterson and Amukamara off the board. They’d also like to add a LB or two but will look later in the draft.

The WR and DT positions are gaping holes and both would be greatly served by a pick here. Which pick is the more pressing? Do they grab a weapon for their emerging star QB or does Spagnuolo go back to his roots and pick up a pass rusher? Both positions are fairly deep in this draft and would provide them with an option at either in the second round which will mostly remove positional scarcity from the equation. All they really need to decide is which player is higher on their board. I think that’s a pretty simple answer and I suspect most teams will agree on the result. I love Corey Liuget and think he’ll be an impact player but Julio Jones, especially following his stellar combine, is in another class. If he’s available at this pick he’d be one of the steals of the draft.

Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

142

Jimmy Smith is a 5-year Senior with, what, 3 interceptions in his college career? He’s got character issues to boot, but he’s a big cornerback. He sounds more like Mike Rumph to me.

143
  1. Miami Dolphins
    Similar to the Rams there’s essentially a consensus pick for them. Mark Ingram gets slotted into this pick almost automatically when Mock Drafts are concocted. Is that because the Dolphins really are going to draft him or is it because they are the only team with a serious need at RB and Ingram is really the only RB with a first round grade? Looking at the Phins it’s easy to come to this conclusion, both Williams and Brown are up in the air and it seems unlikely that both will be back, perhaps neither. This team built much of it’s recent success off the running game and with a pretty solid O line there’s little reason to think that will change soon if they can just get some consistency. Mark Ingram is consistent but he’s not remotely explosive or dynamic. Personally I wouldn’t want any part of him and he is reminiscent of Cedric Benson, an over used college player who built up big numbers through repetition and a loaded cast around him. Ingram would be a nice fit for the Dolphins and would contribute in a hurry, but could they get similar production from a player in the 2nd or 3rd round? I think so. By picking Ingram here you’re essentially saying that the Dolphins are going to ignore the meme that pretty much everyone agrees on…don’t pick a RB in the first round, they are a dime a dozen.

If not an RB, then what for the Dolphins? Well, they could look to bolster that O line with Pouncey. The OTs are very good but the interior was bad last year, they resigned Richie Incognito to play either Center or Guard so maybe that eliminates the need to draft one high but Pouncey might do more for this teams running attack than Ingram would. Brandon Marshall just got stabbed and his first year with the team was shakey at best. The rest of the WRs are interesting but none that can be a #1 if Marshall ends up a liability. Still, with Jones off the board now there isn’t a pass catcher worth looking at here. On defense there isn’t really any position you can call a need. Their front 7 were excellent and will mostly return intact. The back 4 are stout at the corners but need help in the middle, however you aren’t looking at a safety here. You could make an argument for a QB for the Dolphins but with 3 of them off the board already I doubt the Dolphins are willing to roll the dice with Mallett.

So that makes the discussion really simple, kinda like the Rams before, take the only 1st round RB or take the only 1st round OG. It’s an interesting conundrum, and I suspect I might be in the minority here but I’d be a hypocrite if I didn’t stick to my guns. That means the Dolphins grab the lineman even if they could be stuck scrambling for a RB in the middle rounds without a 2nd round pick.

Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida

144
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
    Meh. That’s pretty much how I always end up feeling about the Jaguars. Ever since the days of Mark Brunell and Jimmy Smith they’ve always felt like the poor man’s version of a good team. Always good enough to get into the discussion but always ultimately disappointing. This roster today is exactly that and there really isn’t a single position where they couldn’t use an upgrade except for RB and with Jones-Drew’s wear and tear they probably should get him some help too. Last year they shocked the world by reaching for Alualu and then he went and shocked the world by not being a bust. Weird. After that it’s safe to say that just about anything can happen in the draft with this team.

David Garrard is the epitome of meh. Good enough to retain a starting job and keep people rationalizing him but not good enough to win games by himself. It’s a frustrating position to be in because he’ll probably ensure they won’t spend a high pick on a QB even though one of these days, probably just about when MJD starts falling apart, they’ll be stuck in a situation like this years Panthers at the position. I actually think this could be an intriguing situation for Mallett to end up in, but it won’t happen. They are really thin at WR with Sims-Walker probably gone but they will probably wait til later to address it, though after that Alualu pick would anyone be shocked if they spent this pick on a Torrey Smith? The O line is quite solid with a pair of emerging studs at the OT spots.

Defensively they need some help. Alualu and Knighton are very good inside but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them bring in another DT to elevate the pass rush. A guy like Phil Taylor could upgrade Knighton a lot but that’d be a definite luxury pick they can’t afford. The linebackers are very poor, which seems to be a recurring theme across the league’s 4-3 teams, and again there isn’t an obvious value here. Akeem Ayers would be an excellent fit but he’s a reach, of course that doesn’t rule it out for this team. The secondary is abysmal, they may even be worse than the Texans and they desperately need to draft the position heavily. Like every team in trouble at this level Jimmy Smith will have to be a consideration. The pass rush was also really shabby which accentuated the coverage flaws and they could look there in the draft. Kampman is expected back at full strength but they have to have a contingency for him and with Derrick Harvey looking like a complete bust drafting a DE is a bit of a no brainer. DE is probably the deepest position in the draft and thus far a few of the best ones are slipping.

So, if we assume the Jags take the conventional approach and rule out Jimmy Smith, Phil Taylor and Akeem Ayers who might be reaches at need spots, which DE is the best fit and at the top of their board? With Bowers, Quinn, Jordan and Miller off the board that leaves Watt, Smith, Clayborn, Kerrigan and Heyward. I’m going to rule out Clayborn because that nerve issue sounds like a deal breaker for me, I don’t care how good you are I’m not drafting a DE who can’t play the other side in the middle of the first round. Based on scheme, Kerrigan and Smith make the most sense as I see Heyward and Watt as 5-techniques who might struggle getting around the edge. Kerrigan is the safer choice and I suspect he will be a very productive pro. Aldon Smith is rated higher by most and is considered to have perhaps the greatest upside of any pass rusher in this draft, he’s young and relatively inexperienced but he’s got room to grow into an elite DE with a nose for the QB. I don’t know which direction the Jags will go but I’m going to guess that Del Rio sees Kerrigan as his type of guy.

Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

145
  1. New England Patriots
    Drafting in the Raiders spot here the Pats look to get an impact player to take them over the top. Everyone guesses that tradition will hold and the Pats will look to trade back out of this spot and stockpile more picks, but at some point they need to actually use a pick. Plus in this Mock I’m not making trades, so there. For a team this good they have a surprising number of needs. QB is obviously solid, but the rest of the offense could use upgrades. The WR position is lacking, Branch and Welker are wonderful possession guys and make defenses crazy in the slot but the Pats have to get someone who can get out over the top. Last year they used the TE position to effectively keep defenses honest but there were times where they missed Moss and it seems that Brandon Tate isn’t the answer. Of course, there isn’t really a WR here who can be that guy. The running back position has been a source of frustration for the Pats ever since they drafted Laurence Maroney and with the best RB still on the board Mark Ingram has to be a consideration here. He’s a classy kid who can do it all and looks like a perfect fit for this offense. He can move the chains, pass protect and protect the ball. His only issue is with receiving but with Danny Woodhead in the mix that might not be a problem. Ingram is a very interesting prospect.

The offensive line in New England is a source of great concern. There’s a lot of talent there but it’s unclear how much of it will be in camp come fall. On the edges Light is a FA and Vollmer is a bit of a question mark, he looked shaky at times. The guards aren’t much better with Neal retired and Mankins more than a little unhappy and probably hoping to get out of town. So, with that considered the Pats should probably be looking to add both a tackle and a guard in this draft, and with 2 first round picks they could do both early. Danny Watkins is the best OG with Pouncey gone but he will probably still be there at 28. The big name OTs in Costanzo, Carimi and Solder are all on the board and quickly becoming better values. I’d rule out Solder at this point because while he’s got a lot of upside the Pats are likely to be looking for a more immediate contribution. Costanzo could step in quickly on the left while Carimi could step in quickly on the right. Depending on Light and Vollmer, it’s tough to say which way they’d prefer to go.

Defensively this team is in dire need of a pass rush. The secondary got lit up on occasion but it also generated a lot of turnovers. They are really young and were injured much of the season, but they have potential. The Pats probably won’t spend much in the draft here and expect to help them out by getting after the QB. To do that they need both DEs and OLBs and frankly they need new starters at all 4 positions. I’ve covered the available talent at the DE position and both Watt and Heyward are good fits here, Watt in particular seems like a classic Belichick type player. At the OLB spot the only obvious candidate left is Aldon Smith who would be a terrific value here and could be a terror in an attacking scheme like this one. They have a handful of good options and while Ingram would be very tempting I think he’s out of the mix, the situation is more dire on defense and the talent drop off is steeper. Watt would be an easy choice but I think they go with Smith and hope that Heyward is still there at the end of the first.

Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri

146
  1. San Diego Chargers
    The Chargers are a team in transition. The most quoted stat this offseason might be that the Chargers were first in offense and defense yet they missed the playoffs. You can infer from that they are a pretty loaded team but you’d be mistaken. On offense they have a great QB and a highly drafted sophomore at running back, but at WR the cupboard could be bare. their top 3 WRs are all FAs and all three could be long gone once the CBA is settled. Gates is a hall of famer but the injuries are mounting. The O line is solid and probably set for this season, but this team is going to lose some key parts this offseason. It’s unlikely that they’ll locate any WRs worthy of this pick and they’ll need to find a heir apparent at TE but this isn’t the right time. Later in the draft however you can expect them to draft offense heavily.

The front 7 on the other side of the ball have been inconsistent at best. They got lucky with Garay at the nose but could use improvement on either side of him. With Watt still on the board he’d be a prime target to step in at end and bolster the rotation. They spent a 2009 pick on Larry English at the OLB spot opposite Phillips and he’s been a bust, they need to improve the pass rush and get a player to replace him. It’s unclear what will happen with this defense under Manusky and if there’ll be a change of mindset but I think it’s too much to expect the players on this roster to repeat the effort from last year. In the back end they added Bob Sanders to go with free agent to be Weddle at the safety spot and the corners are pretty solid. I’ve already established that there really isn’t a safety on the board here but with Sanders injury history and Weddle being a coveted FA they might have to add a pair this offseason.

With WR and S being off the table they’ve got to choose between a pair of DEs and a OLB with this pick, that leaves Watt, Wilkerson and Houston as the possible targets to boost this pass rush. Wilkerson and Watt can both play the 5 technique well and fit this scheme, but traditionally the Chargers have gotten the bulk of their pass rush from the OLB spot and they should look to Justin Houston as one of the last pure 3-4 OLBs on the board.

Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia

147
  1. New York Giants
    The G’ints are pretty well settled across the offensive skill positions. QB and WR are set, there is some concern about Steve Smith’s knee but they are deep and shouldn’t be looking to add anyone else early on. The RBs are a little uncertain with Jacobs being Jacobs and Bradshaw a free agent, but with Danny Ware adds depth and if they bring in another set of legs it’ll probably be in the middle rounds, that’s the way the Giants roll. Kevin Boss is sound if unspectacular but I still wouldn’t entirely rule of a high draft choice here based on how much they use the position. Kyle Rudolph might get a look but this is probably too early for him.

It’s the offensive line that needs the most urgent attention. This group is in tatters and Eli needs someone protecting his backside. This team could practically look for a replacement at every position along the line with age and injury concerns everywhere. Adding a LT would have a trickle down effect that improves each position across the line by moving Diehl back inside and allowing the remaining players to compete for 2 interior spots as opposed to constant game of musical chairs they dealt with last season. An anchor at LT is priority one for this team. They are fortunate that the position has gone relatively ignored in this scenario and they get a crack a Costanzo who’s generally considered the most NFL ready of all the LT candidates. They could also consider Watkins, Sherrod and Carimi but Costanzo fits the best.

On the other side of the ball they are well stocked. They’ll lose some players across their front this offseason but the key players are there. They could use another DT to elevate the pass rush and replace Cofield who’ll probably be gone but that would be a luxury pick they can’t afford. We have another 4-3 team in dire need at the LB position and the Giants will add players there. Ayers is on the board and would help the run defense immensely but isn’t the value that Costanzo would be.

**Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College **

148
  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    The Buccos have probably drafted better than any team in the league for the past couple seasons and when you look at their roster it’s obvious. Offensively just about anything they draft will be adding to a position of strength. The WRs are young and talented and while they will want an extra body or two they have their 3 starters pretty much locked in. The QB is a no brainer and they got a lucky break in LeGarrett Blount. RB might be the only position where they are looking to get better as Blount isn’t a complete back and the backups are pretty sparse and unreliable but I can’t imagine them looking at Ingram here. The Line played great and while they suffered some injuries they all should be back and solid this year, however you can’t rule out a pick there especially if they think Joseph will be lost to free agency.

Defensively it’s a completely different story. They have spent a pair of high draft picks on the DTs, building from the inside out as the proverb states, and now it’s time to start moving outwards. They have needs at both end spots because they basically got nothing from them in terms of pass pressure. JJ Watt has to look like a real nice option here, while most have penciled him in as a 3-4 guy he could certainly make a nice option at the LDE in a 4-3 scheme, he might not have the moves to be a dominant RDE but he could challenge the strong side and play the run and pass effectively. They might be interested in Clayborn here as a classic RDE coming off the edge but I still worry about his nerve issue. Moving back the LB position, as usual, is a mess and there isn’t a guy beside Ayers who’s really a value there. The secondary is in rough shape and they need to start planning for the departure of Barber and the potential ouster of Talib. You’d think Jimmy Smith would be a favorable choice but after rolling the dice on Talib I’m not sure they want to go down that road again with another character issue guy and if Talib is back they certainly wouldn’t want those two hanging out. Brandon Harris and Aaron Williams will both start creeping into the picture for teams that are down on Smith. All that said, the best value for this club is at the end position in Watt.

J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

149
  1. Kansas City Chiefs
    It’s kind of bizarre that the biggest need on this team is the same position that’s had a 3rd and 5th overall pick invested in it in the previous 3 drafts. Dorsey and Jackson have both disappointed and this defense much get solid play from these positions. It’ll be tough for them to move on from these players so soon, but with the talent available in this draft they might see no choice. Muhammad Wilkerson could be a great 3-4 DE if they decide to part ways with Dorsey, who might have value for a 4-3 team looking for a 3 technique, and even more compelling could be Phil Taylor as a beast in the middle. Perhaps having a dominating NT would elevate the game of the touted youngsters on the ends. In addition to the D line they have to get more pressure on the passer from the LB spot opposite Tamba Hali. There isn’t really a pass rusher still available for that role so they’ll have to look there later.

Offensively there are only two obvious positions of need. WR opposite Bowe who can stretch the field and an RT to beef up the running game. The Chiefs are a team that might consider reaching for the next best WR in the draft, Torrey Smith has the speed they would probably want to complement their system but they could hope he’s there in the second round. On the line Gabe Carimi would have to be a nice option to jump in on the right side immediately. He’s a strong run blocker and would make an already excellent rushing attack even scarier. The big question is which need is more pressing, the D line or the O line? I really don’t know which is the bigger need but I think they can make do with what they have on the O line.

Phil Taylor, NT, Balyor

150

Thanks for the analysis Omni, I enjoy reading it.

151

I was thinking about doing a mock draft of my own, but I just don’t know enough about too many teams outside the NFC West and AFC West, plus the middle/late 1st round class has largely been off my radar.

So, I’ll go with my 49ers Shopping List. They have 12 picks overall, only two of which are untradeable compensatory selections. I would not be surprised if they move up or down at some point, or both.

Round 1, Pick 7
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU Gold
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska Silver
Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina Silver

Peterson is obvious, but if he’s not there, look for the 49ers to trade down if they can find a willing partner, especially if Gabbert is on the board. (I DO NOT WANT Gabbert. Harbaugh better be damn sure he’s a hall of famer if they pick him.) Amukamara and Quinn are even to me, so I ranked Amukamara higher only because I see better pass-rushing options than cornerbacks later in the draft. If a trade down puts them out of reach for those two guys, look for Cam Jordan as the pick.

Round 2, Pick 45
Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada Gold
Andy Dalton, QB, Texas Christian Silver
Stephen Paea, NT, Oregon State Bronze

I became a fan while helping out my father-in-law in Reno during Kaepernick’s junior year. I have a 100% certified, unabashed man-crush on Colin Kaepernick, and I would trade semi-valuable possessions to see him in scarlet and gold. If it means trading up back into the first round, then I’m all for it. Dalton would be a consolation prize, but acceptable. Stephen Paea, the very strong nose tackle out of Oregon St., leads the large class of other options.

Round 3, Pick 76
Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada Gold
Sam Acho, OLB, Texas Gold
Shane Vereen, RB California Silver
Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State Bronze

Move Vereen to the top if they already have a rush linebacker. Wisniewski might not even be there. The 49ers need help getting to the opposing QB, and Moch and Acho are less-than-well-known picks. Moch dominated in the WAC, and is damn fast. He’ll be transitioning to standing up, but should be able to contribute. Acho is essentially the same kind of guy. Vereen would help as a backup to injury-prone Frank Gore. Wisniewski would help in the interior O-line, where we have question marks at center and an underachiever in guard Chilo Richal.

Round 4, Pick 108
Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington Gold
Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa Silver
Shareece Wright, CB, USC Bronze

OK, Taiwan Jones might even go in the second round, even if you’ve never heard of him. I’d love to have the burner on my team. Ricky Stanzi is rated higher than all but Dalton in Football Outsiders’ new QB projection system (#1 Dalton, #2 Stanzi, #3 Kaepernick). Even if we get a QB earlier, if Stanzi is there in the fourth round, I say pick him up and let ‘em battle. Shareece Wright looks really good to me as a later-round corner. Also: Casey Mathews, ILB, Oregon

Round 4, Pick 115
Jerrell Powe, DT, Mississippi Gold
Jaquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State Silver
Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado Bronze

Current NT Abrayo Franklin might not be back, so a thick guy to gum up the middle like Powe would be a big help. Jaquizz Rodgers would be the scat-back type that the 49ers have long avoided, to their own detriment. Quiz is thicker than people realize and a gamer, hopefully he’s available here. Also: Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno State, if no rusher has been picked already.

Round 5, Pick 141
Sione Fua, NT, Stanford Gold
Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii Silver
Roy Helu, RB, Nebraska Bronze

Again with a nose tackle; Fua is from Stanford, so already familiar with Harbaugh and Vic Fangio’s defense. Greg Salas is a big-time sleeper receiver prospect. Helu again as the change-of-pace back.
Also: DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas; Brandon Fusco, C/G, Slippery Rock; Bilal Powell, RB, Louisville

Round 6, Pick 174
Owen Marecic, FB, Stanford Gold
Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State Silver
Cortez Allen, CB, Citadel Bronze

We need a good FB if OC Greg Roman runs a West Coast offense. Moran Norris sucks, Marecic would be a huge upgrade and a special-teams beast. Pettis has good hands for someone rated so low. Cortez Allen has hips like melted butter.

Round 6, Pick 190
Deunta Williams, FS, North Carolina Gold
Pat Devlin, QB, Delaware Silver
Steven Friday, OLB Virginia Tech Bronze

The safety position is hardly a strength for the 49ers, and Williams makes good reads and has good ball skills. Pat Devlin could emerge as the overlooked QB of the draft. Friday could be a seventh round or free-agent type, but I like him. Also: DeMarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami; Terrence Toliver, WR, LSU

Round 7, Picks 211, 231, 239, and 250
Gold: Jeff Maehl, WR, Oregon; Ryan Whalen, WR, Stanford; Mark Hezlich, OLB, Boston College; Chris Rucker, CB, Michigan State
Silver: Jeremy Beal, DE, Oklahoma; Joe Lefeged, SS, Rutgers; Tim Barnes, C/G, Missouri; Thomas Keiser, OLB, Stanford
Bronze: Keith Williams, G, Nebraska; Cecil Shorts III, WR, Mount Union; Kai Forbath, K, UCLA; Ryan Taylor, FB/HB/TE, North Carolina
Also: Derek Newton, OT, ; Ryan Jones, CB, Northwest Missouri State; Ryan Winterswyk, DE, Boise State; Ryan Bartholomew, G, Syracuse; Daniel Kilgore, G, Appalachian State; Chris Matthews, WR, Kentucky; Nathan Enderle, QB, Idaho; T.J. Yates, QB, North Carolina; Jake Kirkpatrick, G, TCU; Aldrick Robinson, WR, SMU; Derrick Locke, RB, Kentucky; Chris Neild, NT, West Virginia

I admit some of those 7th-rounders I just the name of (Cecil Shorts III), add to the names list: Maurice Hurt, Mike Person, Will Hill, Preston Dial.

My rankings could be way off, but it is what it is. :smiley:

152
  1. Indianapolis Colts
    The Colts need to get Manning under contract but no one thinks that will be an issue. They might end up tying up too much money in him but they certainly won’t be looking to move on, the scuttlebutt about the Colts drafting a QB early to start grooming is fiction. It would be nice to have a backup you can count on but the economics just won’t work. Offensively the Colts have two real concerns, protecting Peyton Manning and running the football. The two concepts work hand in hand and in this scenario the Colts have an interesting choice to make. Mark Ingram is on the board and would immediately elevate this offense, as it stands they don’t have a RB they can rely on. Addai is very good when healthy but that almost never happens, they could be ready to cut Donald Brown and while Javarris James was a nice surprise they can’t see him as more than a 3rd back. Adding Ingram could end up being a huge shot in the arm for this club and it could take a bunch of the load off of Manning allowing him to play action more and get more 2nd and shorts.

The offensive line is also a real issue and if not for Manning’s ability to get rid of the ball it’d be more talked about. The Colts have pretty much ignored the position forever and the question is if they reached a tipping point last year where they have to address it early now. There are a few really nice options at OT who could step in immediately, though Carimi might be a ill fit at the left side where they need him. Nate Solder could be a ideal fit with his size and mobility and he’d fit in that locker room well, but he’s still a little raw and the Colts need help now. That said, if a OT is going to take time to adjust having Manning getting the ball out in a blink would be a good safety net. Sherrod and Ijalana are significant steps down from the previous two guys but Sherrod’s preparedness and pass blocking at the LT spot might elevate him ahead of the more athletic choices.

Defensively they need help in the middle between Freeney and Mathis and with Liuget and Wilkerson still on the board they might have to jump at them. Liuget is a better fit for their style of defense but they Colts have really never spent a high pick on these positions. The journeymen who man the spot now actually played pretty well last year and when you have such talent on the edges it makes average guys looks good in the middle. Still, Liuget sliding to this point is a huge value. The back 7 aren’t great and they were beat up last year but there’s neither a pressing need or a logical fit.

So do the Colts address the obvious need at the LOT spot and take the best fit on the board at a position with a steep drop off after the top 2 tiers or do they look to draft for value in taking the stud DT. Can they afford to wait on those two positions and draft the best RB in the draft in hopes that he can be the next Edge James? I think they look at the depth of the three positions and determine that OT is the shallowest and least likely to be available in the second round, and the best fit is Derek Sherrod.

**Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State **

153
  1. Philadelphia Eagles
    The Eagles are stacked at QB but it’s almost a certainty that Kevin Kolb will be moved. Unfortunately for them they won’t be able to cash in a 2011 pick for him but they’ll certainly stock their 2012 draft with something. If the lockout drags on it’s possible that they continue with Kolb as their backup through 2011 which could be a blessing in disguise if Vick’s injury history continues…and it will. I contended that once Kolb was moved the Eagles might draft another QB to develop giving them another opportunity to cash in with extra picks and that still could happen, but supposedly they love Mike Kafka and they might wait a year before they decide to draft another one. Certainly you can rule it out in the first round.

Considering the injury history at the RB position in Philly you might think they’d consider Ingram but with Jerome Harrison on the roster they probably feel pretty safe at the position. Similarly the WR is stocked and while they need depth now’s not the time. The offensive line has gotten a ton of attention this offseason and they do need to get better there. Gabe Carimi would be a terrific fit on the right side replacing Winston Justice but the Eagles are probably even more desperate on the inside, but with Pouncey gone I doubt they’d grab Watkins this early. Solder is another obvious option but he projects as a LT where they are fine. If they go OL they’ll go Carimi.

Defensively the Eagles are in need of an improved pass rush but they might think those players are already on the roster and they just need to get healthy. Liuget or Wilkerson would be interesting values but the interior of the Eagles line wasn’t a glaring need. If they see either guy as a steal here they might be forced to go there regardless. At end they probably feel solid and I don’t like the values at this spot but Jabaal Sheard looks like a perfect fit for this scheme and if they don’t think he’ll be there in the second round you can’t rule it out. Again LB is a position of serious need and Akeem Ayers has to be looking better and better. One of these 4-3 teams will take him while ignoring greater needs solely because of the sparsity of the position. The other projected pick for the Eagles is CB opposite Samuel and with my guy Jimmy Smith on the board he would be really hard to pass up. He’s fast, strong and dynamic and plays man-to-man that this system calls for really well.

Looking at all the values and needs I’m torn between Jimmy Smith and Gabe Carimi. Both guys are very good values but both positions could be addressed in the second round. Of the two I think CB is deeper and I think that Andy Reid will want to protect his big investment in Vick first and foremost.

Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

154
  1. New Orleans Saints
    As we get later in this round the needs become more salient for the better teams and the Saints are no exception. You can pretty much rule out QB, WR, RB and TE out of hand here. I can make a case for Ingram being to good to pass up considering the injury issues, but they paid Thomas this offseason and want to restructure Bush. OL isn’t completely stocked and they could always add another body but that would be a clear luxury pick.

On the other side of the ball the holes start opening up a bit. The interior of the line is stocked after the addition of Rogers, he’s inconsistent and adding one of the coveted rookies who are sliding might be a consideration but that’d be a surprise. On the end they are in worse shape with Smith aging and Alex Brown being a replacement level player. Heyward and Clayborn are both going to be strong considerations. Heyward is more of a 5 technique and lacks the speed that you’d expect Gregg Williams to prefer and Clayborn might finally become a nice value prospect where his speed could be a weapon on that turf. That said, Will Smith isn’t on the way out just yet and with Clayborn’s limitation they might have to move Smith in order to get Clayborn on the field with him.

I’m sounding like a broken record here but again the LB group is thin and needs an upgrade. Ayers and Martez Wilson will start looking like possibilities but they could wait and look at Bruce Carter in the second round. The secondary isn’t a problem but they might briefly consider Jimmy Smith as too good to pass up. All in all, the Saints are in an envious position to go pure BPA which for me means they choose between Clayborn, Ayers and Liuget. I think it’s finally time for the best 4-3 backer to come off the board.

Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

155
  1. Seattle Seahawks
    The Seahawks, by virtue of that atrocious division, are the exception to the aforementioned trend of good teams late in the draft. Looking across this roster they need help virtually everywhere, which ironically means they too can go with the pure BPA too. They will be in the market for a QB and are in no-mans-land here in the back third of the first round. Unless they trade up or down I doubt they try and land a player here, I just cant believe that Mallett is going to be the fit for system they run. I suspect they resign Hasselbeck, continue to develop Whitehurst and add a guy in the later rounds. I suspect that Carroll is going to really want to add a running back in this draft and Mark Ingram is available. They traded for Lynch last year and he was occasionally productive and Forsett and Washington are both serviceable but Carroll lived on a strong running game in USC and I suspect that he’ll be wanting someone special at the position in Seattle. They also could use a WR but there’s not a fit here and they need Tate to step up in year 2.

On the line they need to add a player, they picked up Okung high last year to man the LT spot and now could be looking to get better on the right side or on the inside. This in another team that would be hoping for Pouncey to slide and considering reaching for Watkins. The best player left on the board on the line is Nate Solder who’s primarily a LT but has the size that Cable will like and is athletic enough to contribute in the run game on the right side.

Defensively they might be the only 4-3 team that isn’t in dire need at the LB spots though Aaron Curry has yet to justify the hype he had coming into the league. On the line it’s a different story, they got good production out of a group of no names but probably could be looking to invest in a classic DE to get after the QB off the edge. That guy is on the board waiting for them in Adrian Clayborn. Brock was effective last year but he’s old and could be shifted to the opposite side to make room for Clayborn. Carroll strikes me a a gambler, and while that’s usually used to justify him taking character issue guys it probably also fits with medical issue guys. Speaking of character, Jimmy Smith is looming and fills a need for the Seahawks. Still, I suspect that pass rush will win out for Carroll.

**Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa **

156
  1. Baltimore Ravens
    Offensively there’s really only 2 options for the Ravens. Nate Solder at OT to replace Jared Gaither or Torrey Smith to take the top off defenses at WR. Solder is a good value, Smith not so much. The rest of the offense is set. It’s unclear if they see LT as a first round need or not and if they have any interest in bringing Gaither back, my gut tells me that they’ll wait on offense and look at defense.

There this once fearsome group is flat out getting old. They need help at the nose and end up front. Wilkerson and Liuget are going to be considerations but I view them as 4-3 prospects first. Heyward looks like a good 3-4 end but the Ravens tend to favor size and 2 gap technique from their ends as opposed to penetration which might rule out Heyward. Ray Lewis seems timeless but the Ravens have to think about getting help inside at some point but there isn’t a guy in the first worth considering. On the outside they drafted Sergio Kindle to be the bookend opposite Suggs but after a skull fracture his future is uncertain at best and the lack of a CBA probably makes it even tougher for the Ravens to judge his potential to come back. They will probably draft a LB but not in this round. The real problem is the secondary, they’ve got 3 CBs who are going to be free agents and none of those guys are particularly good. Ed Reed is ancient at safety but like LB neither S position can be a consideration based on value. This one looks like a bit of a layup, they’lll take the best CB on the board in Jimmy Smith and if ever there was a locker room made for him it’s this one.

Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

157
  1. Atlanta Falcons
    On the offensive side of the ball the Falcons are simply looking to get over the hump. They’ve got a great QB and a powerful running game and a stud WR. The perfect combination, but they need to add another piece to really scare defenses. A second WR to complement Roddy White who can stretch defenses would be very welcome and if anyone reaches for a Titus Young or Torrey Smith in the first round it could be this Falcons group. There’s significant buzz that the Falcons will look to add the heir to Tony Gonzalez at TE in Kyle Rudolph in the first round too. I think that’s an extreme reach but this is the spot in the draft where the first TE usually gets drafted, the Bears did it with Olsen, the Steelers with Miller, the Ravens did it with Heap, the Colts with Clark. Teams without a lot of holes tend to pick TEs at the back of the first round. Nate Solder might be the highest rated offensive player remaining on the board and the Falcons would be smart to protect Ryan and bolster that running game but their biggest need due to free agency is on the inside. They may look at Watkins but he’d be a little bit of a reach.

Getting after the passer is a priority in this tough division and the Falcons would like to get better there. Inside they are sound so I doubt that they consider Liuget here but Cameron Heyward would be a terrific fit on the left side opposite Abraham. There’s quite a big drop at the DE position behind him but he’s more of a 5 technique than a 7 technique but the LDE spot is key in stopping the run in a 4-3 so he could thrive there. Linebacker isn’t really going to be a consideration nor is CB after the contract they gave Dunta Robinson. The Falcons are a tough team to gage, they could go BPA and take Liuget or Solder, they could go with someone dynamic on offense or they could take the one need fit in Heyward. I think Heyward is a little heavy and slow and won’t provide the impact they want, Smith is a reach and he might be there in round 2. The O line is tempting but I’m going to take the trendy pick and grab the TE.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame

158
  1. New England Patriots
    The Patriots are back on the board. We broke them down pretty extensively before and a couple of the guys they might have considered are still on the board. Nate Solder to step in at OT and Mark Ingram to solidify this running game. Both are terrific values here and it’s unclear which will be the pick. I suspect that they’ll continue trying to make do with RBBC and will probably have one more crack at Ingram or Leshoure with the top pick of the 2nd round. That makes Nate Solder the pick, and Bears fans everywhere commit hari-kari.

Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

159
  1. Chicago Bears
    The Bears need help all over the field and I’ve discussed it a lot around here, I’ll try and keep this concise. Offensively they need line help, period, end of story. Later in the draft they should look to get help for Forte in the backfield and they need a WR with size to play on the outside who can adapt to Martz’s system, but in the first round that’s not on the docket. So, what’s left on the line? They could use either a OT or an OG and will probably draft a C later in the draft to replace the dilapidated Kruetz. With Solder being drafted with the previous pick, the dream pick is gone. The fall back options in Sherrod and Carimi are also long gone as is Pouncey on the inside. Many recent Mock drafts have Danny Watkins being the Bears choice here and while I love the fit he’s a reach in the first round. I don’t know if there’s much chance he lasts to the second round, but I don’t like him here. If a QB starved team wants to trade up to nab a QB and the Bears end up with a 2nd rounder in the 40s then he might be a great option.

Defensively the luck went their way though. The ideal player for their system is sitting here staring them in the face and I don’t see them passing on him. The Bears need depth at CB but Lovie is convinced he can groom CBs from middle rounders so there’s almost no chance the draft a CB in the first round unless some really special falls. LB is a position of need with uncertainty at the Sam and virtually no depth behind the old guys at the other two spots but it’s not pressing enough to reach here for a Wilson or Moch. So, the simplest pick on the board in the last dozen happens here with them taking Corey Liuget. He’s a local kid who’s a flawless fit in the Bears scheme and would replace Tommie Harris immediately.

Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

160
  1. New York Jets
    This team is pretty well loaded. Offensively they have a few FA issues to patch up, especially at WR, but all in all there’s not much pressing need. They could use a starter at RT but he he might already be on the roster and there isn’t an obvious value on the board there. They’ll probably let Edwards go and resign Holmes meaning they’ll want to get an extra body or two at WR in the draft but with Holmes back they aren’t likely to spend a high pick there. Offensively the only position that might be a consideration is running back. They got decent production from LT but he doesn’t have much lead left in the old pencil and he broke down last season. Greene was supposed to be a workhorse and goal line threat but ended up being neither, he had a impressive rookie year in limited duty but who knows which performance was the real one. McKnight looks like a bust through and through and after cutting loose Danny Woodhead the Jets might be sick of the uncertainty at the position. All this is a long way of saying that Mark Ingram could be a very tempting option for a team that’s already pretty solid offensively but could love the idea of pounding the ball at a more effective rate in 2011.

Defensively the Jets are in transition. They haven’t gotten much of a pass rush from anyone besides Jenkins and Ellis and Jenkins is gone. They have to consider Cameron Heyward here at end and Muhammad Wilkerson is another nice option, but their biggest need is at NT. Unfortunately for them Phil Taylor came off the board already and there isn’t another clear cut option there. All the LBs need an upgrade. They quit on Gholston and Taylor this offseason and Bart Scott is all bark and no bite. Harris and Pace are just guys. This group should see 2 or 3 picks in this draft and unfortunately for them the position is pretty badly picked over. Jabaal Sheard, Brooks Reed and Dontay Moch could be considerations but each would probably be better suited as second round selections. Lacking a great fit on the defensive side of the ball they take the biggest value left on the board in Ingram.

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama