2011 NFL Draft

The Game Room
161
  1. Pittsburgh Steelers
    The Super Bowl runners up aren’t looking for skill position players. Offensively they have essentially the same scouting report as the Bears. Solid running back who needs help and a young, speedy undersized WR corps that could use some physicality and size in the middle rounds. The Line however is a disaster. They’ve actually got a bit of a glut at the OT positions but none of these players are the answer in the long term. Colon was hurt and could be gone and Flozell played better than expected but is still a very limited player. Inside they need to get better as well, Pouncey is a star but can’t do it himself. Steeler fanboys are pining for a Pouncey reunion but there’s no chance the Steelers spend what it would take to go up and get him. Danny Watkins or Ben Ijalana would both step in and offer versatility for this group but the LT of the future won’t be there.

On the other side of the ball they are solid but getting old. They really could use some replacements for Smith and Keisel and in this scenario they actually have a pair of excellent fits in Heyward and Wilkerson who could groom into future stalwarts. It’s not a great need, but it’s going to be soon. The linebackers are also old and the Steelers tend to cut the cord early on LBs but there isn’t a great fit available here. The Safeties are nearly elite but the corners leave a lot to be desires and Ike Taylor is a FA and might be gone. The CB position has been neglected and there’s some real talent on the board with this pick and Aaron Williams or Brandon Harris would both elevate this scheme a lot. I don’t like the options on the O line here and CB is more pressing than DE making Williams the smart choice.

Aaron Williams, CB, Texas

162
  1. Green Bay Packers
    With the shitbag Cheeseheads on the clock the first round comes to a close. Like the Bears and Steelers this is a team that’s only looking for depth at the skill positions ruling out the best available RB and WRs. Like any of these last 5 or 6 teams could also be a prime candidate to move back 15 or 20 picks for a team looking to leap up and nab a Mallett or a Ponder. It’s surprising how many of these final 4 teams are in rough shape on the O line. The Packers need to figure out what to do with Bulaga who looked overwhelmed for much of the season and Clifton isn’t going to last forever. They are in pretty good shape at 2 of the 3 inside spots but might be considering drafting a Watkins or Ijalana if they think they’ll need TJ Lang on the outside. Needless to say protecting Rodgers is key and last year’s success probably surprised the Packers brass as much as anyone.

They are going to be looking for help with both Jolly and Jenkins out up front. As a result you can figure that Wilkerson and Heyward would be serious considerations with this pick along that critical defensive front. Of the two I think Wilkerson is a better player but Heyward is perhaps a better scheme fit. The Packers also need some help on the edge opposite Matthews, they used a piecemeal approach last year that was surprisingly effective but Dontay Moch and Brook Reed should get consideration. If Jolly wouldn’t have been an idiot they probably would have addressed the OLB spot but I think under the present circumstance the DE spot is more crucial. The Packers secondary was very good and Sam Sheilds might lessen the need for a replacement for Woodson right away.

Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

163

Interesting, and very good analysis, Omni. I was intrigued to see how your draft went. You’re down on Sherrod, yet you have him going before Carimi and Solder. You love Liuget, and he happens to go to the Bears. And Julio Jones falling to 14 really surprised me, it couldn’t work out that well for the Rams in real life though. I’m interested in finding out who are “your guys” and who you dislike.

2 days before the draft. I’ll be in the car during the first round and may be without internet for the rest of the weekend (grrrrrrrrrr), but I’ll be keeping tabs.

164

I went into the Mock without any preconceived notions. I never looked ahead to the next pick nor tried slotting in anyone. When each team came up I tried to evaluate the remaining players from scratch without bias and this is what it shook out like. It was very interesting.

I do like Carimi and Solder better than Sherrod but he’s just too good a fit for the Colts to ignore. If I’m the Colts my board is stacked different than if I’m the Bears. I really had no expectation that there was any scenario where Liuget could slide to the Bears but once he got past the Rams there just wasn’t really a 4-3 team in serious need of a 3 technique, it surprised me I admit. It’s very possible that I overrate scheme fits, especially on defense, since it’s not uncommon to see 4-3 DTs drafted by 3-4 teams and 4-3 DEs drafted as 3-4 OLBs and vice versa but I don’t really see too many serious leaps of logic in my rationales.

Obviously Cam Newton going to the Panthers could throw all this out the window and the trickle down effect could be huge. If Newton doesn’t go to the Bengals they grab Green and the cascade effect will impact the Rams most notably. We’ll see, plus I’m pretty sure that there’ll be quite a few trades that upset this board dramatically. Probably a couple big moves in the 6-10 range and then a second round of trades around the 24-30 range.

165

This PFT article is pretty interesting in light of my comments regarding the Steelers quest to pair up the Pouncey Brothers.

Report: Steelers want to trade up, pair Mike with Maurkice

166

I’m down on all the first round tackles. I’m just not seeing that there’s a clear gap between them and anyone else. I think this year’s class of offensive line prospects is pretty deep, but there isn’t a dominant pre-draft favorite that everyone agrees will anchor the left side of your line for a decade.

167

One thing about taking tackles in the first round, even if they can’t hack it as a tackle in the NFL, is that they can slide inside and do a fair job at guard (Robert Gallery, Chris Williams). I think that kind of safety net tends to inflate their value.

I agree, I don’t think there are any stud LT out there this year, but I do think the top 4 all could find a spot to play for 10 years in the NFL, even if it isn’t at LT. When you consider someone like Mike Pouncey (who, if his name was Johnson instead of Pouncey wouldn’t go in the first round) is going in the mid first, I think it’s not bad value to take a shot at a OT.

168

I don’t, especially if you have needs and you’re in the upper half of this draft. This appears to be a super deep draft for defense, though. Then again, you’re aware of how these draft prognostications pan out.

Also, it’s not optimal to be paying tackle money for a guard or a center.

169

Initial reports have it that Thomlin wants to trade up to try and get Pouncey.

170

I am seeing some smoke that the Redskins and the Falcons may both try to make moves up the board. The 'Skins seem to be eyeing moving up for Gabbert (the report I saw speculated they may try for moving to #2 through the Shannahan connections with Denver, i don’t see him worth that muchof a jump)and the Dirty Birds may move for Green or Jones. I seriously doubt that Atlanta can make that kind of a jump, but if Jones were there at 14 I would love to see St. Louis get a dumptruck full of picks to trade down and pick up someone like Ayers, Wilkerson, Clayborn or Heyward and get extra chances to fill other holes later in the draft.

171

As much as I wish it were true, Chris Williams hasn’t done a fair job at guard. The guy’s a liability there and he gets pushed back into the pocket regularly, he seems to struggle with power players, perhaps he’s better suited to speed guys on the edge. I think the Bears need to move him to LT and have him compete for the spot. If he can win the job at his natural position then the Bears can salvage something from that pick, otherwise it’s time to dump him.

I agree with your premise, but you’re too general. Some OTs value is bolstered because of their ability to shift inside as a fall back, but others simply aren’t built that way. Gabe Carimi would make a fantastic OG and I think Tyron Smith and Nate Solder are athletic enough to play the position as well. Sherrod and Gilbert however don’t have the skills to play OG in anything but a pure zone blocking system, which really doesn’t exist. These guys will struggle against powerful DTs and NTs and even some 5 techniques and aren’t agile enough to pull or get to the second level in the run game.

I’m not sure how many of you listen to the Football Today Podcast but last night I listened to last Friday’s show featuring Greg Cosell. He had some really interesting comments. For those of you who don’t know, Cosell is the Senior Producer of ESPN’s NFL Matchup and worked for NFL Films as a analyst, he’s basically a game tape guru. The guy has access to all the coaches tape and he breaks down prospects and players based purely on their on field talents, I trust his opinions quite a lot.

Anyways, he said that he would compare Anthony Costanzo to Jake Long. In his opinion Costanzo is a “clean” player, meaning that when looking at the tape there wasn’t any obvious holes in his game. He said that ignoring all off field issue he likes Jimmy Smith better than Prince Amukamara and thinks he’s the best pure man-to-man coverage guy in the draft, even better than Peterson. He thinks Jonathan Baldwin is the 3rd best WR in the draft and it’s not really close. He prefers Mikel Leshoure to Mark Ingram and thinks he’s the most complete back in the draft. He said he wouldn’t pick any of the QBs before the 20th pick and doesn’t think any will be elite NFL QBs, he particularly dislikes Locker and Mallett’s pocket presence and basically said they play scared in the pocket. Gabbert he said was basically the exact same player as Colin Kaepernick, same system and same game tape and neither has any experience making NFL reads or throws. He liked Ponder much better than Dalton and think Dalton’s arm is a real liability. Food for thought, but he agrees with a lot of the opinions I’ve developed which is encouraging.

I also listened to the ESPN First Draft Podcast and Kiper and McShay both mentioned that people are starting to talk about Mallett as if he’s going to fall all the way to the 4th round. Apparently NFL teams are really concerned what their research dug up about his off-field issues. I think a team would be getting a steal in the 4th round and you have to gamble that you can get him to mature because his physical skills are 1st round worthy.

172

Guess the Browns will be drafting a running back with their pick.

RIP Peyton Hillis

173

Damn it, don’t scare me like that. For a second I thought maybe he was raping a bear as he often did and got overconfident and slipped and got gutted.

Also fuck that retarded curse shit.

174

I’m actually optimistic about it. He’ll have a lot of attention on him for this, so he should be extra motivated to work his butt off during this offseason.

175

I’d just like to point out while the team sucks ass, whenever it comes to anything involving fan support/participation, Cleveland kicks ass. Hillis has got to be the unlikeliest Madden cover athlete ever, even though he’s awesome and deserves it.

Beating Vick isn’t wildly surprising since there’s a lot of anti-Vick settlement that could drum up support for Hillis, but beating the most natural Madden cover ever, Aaron Rodgers, was impressive.

I thought that if Hillis won, EA might decide that outcome was shitty and somehow invalidate the vote or something. Kinda surprised they went with it.

176

OK, I’m going to start tossing out my Hamlet™ list of “My Guys / Your Guys”. I’ll probably take a little different approach but keep in mind that for most of them the guys I like and hate are value relative, a guy I hate in the 20’s might be a steal in the 35-45 range.

Initially, here’s some head-to-head comparisons for players ranked similarly.

Jimmy Smith >> Prince Amukamara
Julio Jones = A.J. Green
Anthony Costanzo > Nate Solder > Tyron Smith
Jake Locker > Cam Newton
Mikel Leshoure > Mark Ingram >> Ryan Williams
Cameron Jordan > JJ Watt >> Cameron Heyward
Aaron Williams > Ras-I Dowling > Brandon Harris
Greg Little >> Jonathan Baldwin

Here’s my list of My Guys / Your Guys broken out my draft tier.

Picks 1-10
My Guys
Patrick Peterson
Marcel Dareus
A.J. Green
Julio Jones

Your Guys
Von Miller
Cam Newton
Blaine Gabbert
J.J. Watt
Tyron Smith

Picks 10-20
My Guys
Cameron Jordan
Jimmy Smith
Corey Liuget
Ryan Kerrigan
Anthony Costanzo

Your Guys
Prince Amukamara
Jake Locker
Aldon Smith
Mark Ingram

Picks 20-32
My Guys
Gabe Carimi
Nate Solder
Jake Locker
Da’Quan Bowers
Phil Taylor
Akeem Ayers

Your Guys
Derek Sherrod
Cameron Heyward
Adrian Clayborn
Brooks Reed
Mark Ingram

Round 2
My Guys
Aaron Williams
Greg Little
Jabaal Sheard
Rahim Moore
Mikel Leshoure
Ras-I Dowling
Cristian Ballard

Your Guys
Stephen Paea
James Carpenter
Andy Dalton
Christian Ponder
Torrey Smith
Martez Wilson
Marcus Gilbert

Round 3
My Guys
Tandon Doss
Ryan Mallett
Drake Nevis
Jonathan Baldwin
Marvin Austin
Clint Boling

Your Guys
Edmund Gates
Jerrel Jernigan
Daniel Thomas
Derrick Locke
James Carpenter

Round 4
My Guys
Stefan Wisniewski
Shane Vereen
John Moffitt
Greg Salas
Sione Fua
Kenrick Ellis

Your Guys
Sam Acho
Ricky Stanzi
Casey Mathews
Greg Jones
Buster Skrine

Rounds 5-7
My Guys
Zane Taylor
Roy Helu
Armon Binns
Byron Stingily
Joseph Barksdale
Dion Lewis
Stephen Schilling

Your Guys
DeMarcus Love
Cecil Shorts III
Shiloh Keo
John Clay
Evan Royster

177

I’ve not heard anybody compare Gabbert and Kaepernick as the same.
“Rouge Scout” Dave Razzano, who was fired by the Cardinals for not liking Alex Smith, is high on Jake Locker. He compares Locker to Brett Farve. He also thinks Kaepernick could end up the best QB of this class, and had generally good things to say about Ponder and Dalton on the radio this morning. He wonders what people see in Gabbert, and overall doesn’t think any QB this year is worth picking higher than 20.

Colin Cowherd predicted this morning that Cam Newton would fail and Gabbert would succeed. His rationale was Cam would be going into a bad team that needs help everywhere, with a defensive head coach, whereas Gabbert (assuming he goes to Arizona or SF) would have better weapons, better coaching, and a weak division.
I agree with the Newton stuff, but I think Gabbert isn’t any good.

We’ll all see in a few years (duh).

178

Sports Illustrated sports law expert says the NFL should delay the draft in light of the lifting of the lockdown.

179

How do you guys feel about AJ Green relative to other receiving prospects in recent years? I don’t hear the sort of excitement in terms of “Best WR prospect since _____!” associated with him very much, but everyone still seems to think he’s a top 6 pick. He’s supposed to have epic hands, so I guess that alone would be a pleasant change for the Browns.

I’m starting to think one or the other Cincinatti is going to fuck up the draft for the Browns. Decent chance they take Green themselves.

I guess my worry is that Dareus, Green, and Peterson are all gone by my pick, and then I don’t like anyone. I suspect Fairley would be the pick in that scenario barring a trade down, but with all the risk in the first round d-line picks this year, and the depth at the position, it seems excessively risky.

180

Browns and Patriots are rumored to be talking trade. Browns would get the Patriot’s 17th and either their 28th or some other package of lower picks.