I think either Chris Christie or Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee. Probably Christie, because he’s a lot a smarter. To see why, let’s start with a historical analogy.
The printing press appeared in Europe around 1450. The obvious consequences of its appearance were that written material could now be printed much faster and cheaper than previously possible. Everyone understood those consequences. Other consequences were harder to realize. Martin Luther was the first person to figure out a vitally important social consequence of the printing press. He realized that the old system of producing and distributing books worked in favor of the Catholic Church, because a great deal of reading and writing involved the clergy and they had more resources for producing books. Luther realized that with the printing press, he and his followers could create huge volumes of material and distribute it directly to ordinary people, bypassing the church heirarchy entirely. He adapted a writing style that was more appropriate to printing than copying by hand, churning out huge numbers of pamphlets and small books that were generally self-contained and didn’t depend on a complicated web of references and analogies. This is part of the reason why his war of ideas against the papacy was so successful. He used the new communication technology to outfox his enemies.
Now fast forward five centuries. In the USA, while it’s technically possible for anyone to publish anything, there have been gatekeepers of a sort. As recently as ten years ago it was still true that TV, Radio, magazines and newspapers determined the political discourse. Now, ten years later, things have changed. Anyone can post a video on YouTube and there’s nothing that can be done to stop it (in most cases). Some candidates are still trying to get nominated the old way. Mitt Romney is the obvious case. His entire campaign is based around forming a committee, getting major fundraising, writing columns in the New York Times, appearing on TV, and other approaches that are just so ten years ago.
Christie and Palin, on the other hand, understand that YouTube and Twitter are the way of the future. Some people think that Palin can coast to the nomination on her unique synthesis of reality TV, twitters posts, and miscellaneous other types of communication. As I see it, though, she’s just too stupid to use those things effectively and actually win votes.
Christie, on the other hand, seems quite intelligent and understands exactly how to work with the new technology and bypass the old system. His YouTube channel has released 173 videos while other people have posted thousands more of him. Moreover, he seems to understand what makes a good YouTube video and to be aware that everything he says will get posted. He can get a good, solid argument into five minutes or less, which Romney just can’t do.
The most common points raised against Christie are low approval ratings and obesity. However, nearly all politicians have low approval ratings right now, so his won’t necessarily mean that he can’t get nominated. As for the fact that he’s fat and ugly, I don’t think that matters much. Ever since 1960 people have assumed that the right way to campaign is JFK’s way: be very good-looking, appear calm and collected, communicate soundly and at length. If you’re making an hour-long TV appearance, that approach works, because people have an hour in which to absorb your good looks and excellent communication skills. In a two-minute YouTube video that’s exactly the wrong approach. You have to be brash and in-your-face to make an effective video at that length. Chris Christie is.
