I don’t normally follow politics but lately I’ve been reading the stray article like this one in the local news. Political fallout of shutdown could hurt New Jersey Republicans
Most people think of NJ as true blue but we have, as most people know, a pub gov and 12 cong. districts that currently are evenly split between the parties. I’m not familiar enough with the demographics of the CDs to give much insight except to say that the NE part of the state is very wealthy due to NYC influence and that probably applies to a lesser extent to the northern part and NE corridor between NY and Philly, although as to the latter you also have some truly epic examples of urban-industrial, mad-max, post-apocalyptic nightmarishness sprinkled in there as well (which I sort of love - the refineries on a summer night are a beautiful sight). The southern and eastern parts of the state are pretty rural as is the north and west.
The point is, to all appearances, NJ seems to be a lot more middle-of-the-road than I would have imagined and therefore more indicative of how swing voters might lean in 2014. Does that sound like a plausible hypothesis? I know that people normally look at states like Ohio to gauge the swing vote, or at least that’s my impression, but looking at their congressional delegation, they’re 12R-4D. Of course I guess the obvious response is that this is the result of gerrymandering and the swing of pendulum in the last election so an even split now doesn’t mean the state is any less blue, if anything it proves how blue it really is. But on the other hand, if the Pubs look to be giving up their gains from the last election so quickly in a state where the Pub governor looks to be a lock for re-election, that can’t be a good sign.