2014-15 Oscar nominations

[MovieMogul]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

In the face of the backlash, do you figure Iñárritu becomes a more likely winner for to play look-a-noncaucasian-can-so-totally-still-win-one-of-the-major-awards-see?

I doubt it, because, like last year’s winner (and fellow member of the 3 Amigo trio of Mexican directors), Iñárritu’s film is not about race or ethnicity. Like Alfonso Cuaron’s GRAVITY, its storytelling interests lie elsewhere. Which is great. But that also means voting for him makes less of a statement about the industry and the movies it produces and more about how he’s integrated himself into the Hollywood indie establishment.

The truth is, a vote for SELMA is also a vote for encouraging more movies like SELMA to be made. There is usually symbolism in every win, though it’s obviously open to interpretation and competing with a lot of other variables. 25 years ago, DRIVING MISS DAISY won 4 Oscars including Best Picture and DO THE RIGHT THING (like SELMA) received only 2 nods (and not even Picture). This year, the Best Picture field includes historical accounts of Alan Turing, Stephen Hawking, and Chris Kyle (19 nods between them), while only two for a film whose reviews were at least as good about an American leader more famous than any of them.

In short, AMPAS usually embraces stories which make them feel more comfortable, and to which they can more closely relate. Competing against 7 other films, I doubt that SELMA can gather enough votes (whether they be overtly admiring or intentionally political) to pull out a win. Last year was the first time a film directed by a person of color won Best Picture (Cuaron and Ang Lee might’ve won Best Director, but their films didn’t), and given the generally lily white complexion of this year’s nominees, it still remains to be seen if that was just a fluke or outlier. But SELMA’s poor showing (as well as the complete absence of films like GET ON UP, BELLE, TOP FIVE or DEAR WHITE PEOPLE) isn’t encouraging.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@JohnT

[QUOTE=The Other Waldo Pepper]
Why? If SELMA wins Best Picture, then they have to know we’re all in for another round of It Was The Best Damn Picture, But The Actor And Director Didn’t Even Get Nominated. And we’ll hear that, almost routinely, whenever the win for SELMA gets mentioned in years to come; it’ll be as if there’s an asterisk for the rest of that sentence.

But if, say, BIRDMAN wins Best Picture, based on a consensus that Iñárritu was just a little better at directing than any of the whites or blacks who took a shot at it this year, then that point kinda sorts gets muted instead of getting resurrected.

You’re reading more into my remark than I put in there.
[/QUOTE]

But I wasn’t wrong.

[bienville]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

But I wasn’t wrong.

Wow. You’ve had that “I told you so” percolating for over a month. Impressive.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@bienville

Wow. You’ve had that “I told you so” percolating for over a month. Impressive.

I know, right? I wake up and see that Oscar voters voted the way I figured, which somehow brings to mind that I’d figured they’d vote that way! The answer must be that it’s been percolating away inside of me – because, c’mon, who can mundanely recall relevant information when reminders are front-page news?

[bienville]

Now, now.
You are a completely fair target for teasing here. You could have posted to the active Thread about the Oscar results with your “Hey! I made a good prediction!” but instead you sought out and revived a Thread from a month ago just so you could say “neener neener!” to JohnT.

That’s funny to me. Therefore, I point and laugh.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@bienville

You could have posted to the active Thread about the Oscar results with your “Hey! I made a good prediction!” but instead you sought out and revived a Thread from a month ago just so you could say “neener neener!” to JohnT.

Well, I revived the thread where I’d said it, which (a) seemed like the appropriate path of least resistance.
(And which (b) I also figured would let me stealth-neener-neener MovieMogul’s comment right above my post there, with the “I doubt it … Last year was the first time a film directed by a person of color won Best Picture (Cuaron and Ang Lee might’ve won Best Director, but their films didn’t), and given the generally lily white complexion of this year’s nominees, it still remains to be seen if that was just a fluke or outlier” reply.)

[JohnT]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

But I wasn’t wrong.

:rolleyes:

Nor were you correct. At best, your theory is unproven. (And, let it be known that you’re claiming “victory” in an argument I didn’t make.)

Unless I’m mistaken, there wasn’t a ballot that said

__ Check here if you want Innaritu to win because “look-a-noncaucasian-can-so-totally-still-win-one-of-the-major-awards-see?”

__ Check here if you want Innaritu to win because he’s the best nominated director

__ Check here if you want Linklater to win because he’s a white guy

__ Check here if you want Linklater to win because he’s the best nominated director

(And so on, for the rest of the nominees.)

Until we see such a ballot (or poll), how can you seriously claim that he won because of his race? Or because of the Selma “backlash”?

Ya know, two movies were tied with the most nominations. And, surprise! Those two movies were tied with the most awards. Congrats on picking the front-runner to win, I guess.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@JohnT

Nor were you correct. At best, your theory is unproven. (And, let it be known that you’re claiming “victory” in an argument I didn’t make.)

Why the heck did you put “victory” in quotation marks? I didn’t use the word.

Here, lemme show ya how it’s done:

Until we see such a ballot (or poll), how can you seriously claim that he won because of his race?

First off – wow, talk about “an argument I didn’t make”.

Second, you “seriously” claimed that, “if it will sway voters, it will sway them to vote for SELMA” – and I seriously claimed that, if it will sway voters, it will sway them to vote for BIRDMAN and Iñárritu. If you can “seriously” claim the former, I see no reason to refrain from “seriously” claiming the latter; they’re equally modest claims!

(Now, sure, that’s way too many quotation marks, but at least they’re for quotes.)

[JohnT]

First off – wow, talk about “an argument I didn’t make”.

But you “just asked the question” in post 66:

@You

In the face of the backlash, do you figure Iñárritu becomes a more likely winner for to play look-a-noncaucasian-can-so-totally-still-win-one-of-the-major-awards-see?

Then came back and said you “wasn’t wrong” in post 82:

@You

But I wasn’t wrong.

So… were you making the argument or not? You claimed you weren’t wrong about something, right? I’m kind of confused here. Please clarify what you “wasn’t wrong” about, then. We may be talking past each other here.

Second, you “seriously” claimed that, “if it will sway voters, it will sway them to vote for SELMA” – and I seriously claimed that, if it will sway voters, it will sway them to vote for BIRDMAN and Iñárritu. If you can “seriously” claim the former, I see no reason to refrain from “seriously” claiming the latter; they’re equally modest claims!

You see the “If”? That’s not a claim that the controversy will sway voters, that’s a supposition that if the controversy sways voters, it will more likely sway them to vote for the film in those categories in which it was nominated, than cause them to vote for other films. You are arguing that because Selma was snubbed, that means that it’s more likely that Birdman would win because it was helmed by a non-cacausian, which doesn’t make a lot of sense on the face of it. It’s like arguing that since Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for directing “Argo” in 2013, David O. Russell would be the likely winner because he’s the closest thing to a young white guy to Affleck.

(Of course, the Chinese Ang Lee won that year.)

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@JohnT

You claimed you weren’t wrong about something, right? I’m kind of confused here. Please clarify what you “wasn’t wrong” about, then. We may be talking past each other here.

Happy to clarify! As per your “if it will sway voters, it will sway them to vote for SELMA” claim, I was making an equally-modest “if it will sway voters, it will sway them to vote for BIRDMAN and Iñárritu” claim.

It’s not a claim that the controversy will sway voters; it’s a supposition that if the controversy sways voters, it will more likely sway them to so vote.

You are arguing that because Selma was snubbed, that means that it’s more likely that Birdman would win because it was helmed by a non-cacausian, which doesn’t make a lot of sense on the face of it.

If SELMA had won, then I figure it would’ve provoked a fresh round of claims that it was snubbed in a bunch of other big categories – it won Best Picture without the black director and actor and actress even getting nominated! That PROVES the black director and actor and actress were snubbed! – followed by forever reminding us of that asterisk whenever SELMA’s win for Best Picture got mentioned in years to come.

And if a film with lily-white credentials had won – well, okay, granted, that doesn’t make things worse the way a win for SELMA would, but it’s also no help.

But in the face of the backlash, there’s exactly one move that could minimize future backlash: give it to the film with the least lily-white credentials – aside from SELMA, because, again, if that’s a factor for you, why make things worse? No, if it would sway voters, I figure it would sway them to vote for BIRDMAN and Iñárritu.

[Little_Nemo]

The day after the award ceremony. When I’m reminded why I don’t bet real money on my predictions.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@Little_Nemo

The day after the award ceremony. When I’m reminded why I don’t bet real money on my predictions.

As was noted (“percolating”, he said) it was back in January when I wrote…

If SELMA wins Best Picture, then they have to know we’re all in for another round of It Was The Best Damn Picture, But The Actor And Director Didn’t Even Get Nominated. And we’ll hear that, almost routinely, whenever the win for SELMA gets mentioned in years to come; it’ll be as if there’s an asterisk for the rest of that sentence.

But if, say, BIRDMAN wins Best Picture, based on a consensus that Iñárritu was just a little better at directing than any of the whites or blacks who took a shot at it this year, then that point kinda sorts gets muted instead of getting resurrected.

…after asking…

In the face of the backlash, do you figure Iñárritu becomes a more likely winner for to play look-a-noncaucasian-can-so-totally-still-win-one-of-the-major-awards-see?

…because I wasn’t doin’ my figurin’ a day after the award ceremony; I was doin’ that there figurin’ a good month and change ahead o’ time.

[Eyebrows_0f_Doom]

Of course Iñárritu couldn’t have won because his direction was the best. It must be because the Academy wanted a non-white person to win. You know those non-whites can’t actually win on their own merits.
(You do realize that even before the nominations were announced, everyone considered it a race between Linklater & Iñárritu, right? So good on you for picking the correct one of a 50-50 chance?)

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@Eyebrows_0f_Doom

Of course Iñárritu couldn’t have won because his direction was the best. It must be because the Academy wanted a non-white person to win. You know those non-whites can’t actually win on their own merits.

There’s another guy in this thread who said “if it will sway voters, it will sway them to vote for SELMA”. I made an equally-modest “if it will sway voters, it will sway them to vote for BIRDMAN and Iñárritu” claim. So (a) why come after me, and not him?

And (b) why come after either of us for hinging it on that “if”?

[MovieMogul]

I’m happy for Inarritu–BIRDMAN was certainly his most playful and least oppressive film. I’m just sorry it was completely at Linklater’s expense, who went 0-for-3 for the night (while Alejandro became one of the few rare people to win thrice in one evening). Another very share-the-wealth ceremony (all 8 Best Picture nominees won something) even if not everything went they way I’d hoped.

[JohnT]

I made no claim that people were voting on race identification, I said that if people were swayed by the controversy, they could express their displeasure by voting for Selma in the categories in which it was nominated. I definitely did not claim that they would express their dissatisfaction by voting for other films.

This has precedent in Academy Award history in re: the B Picture win for Argo, which was helped by the “Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for B Director” controversy.

The equivalent to your argument would be saying that David O. Russell was going to win because the Academy wanted another young-ish white guy to win.

IOW, a totally different argument.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@JohnT

I made no claim that people were voting on race identification, I said that if people were swayed by the controversy, they could express their displeasure by voting for Selma in the categories in which it was nominated. I definitely did not claim that they would express their dissatisfaction by voting for other films.

And I’m likewise saying that if – if! – people were swayed by the controversy, they could vote to minimize it by voting for Birdman and Iñárritu. I definitely did not claim that they would vote to minimize it by voting for Selma, which I figure would’ve had the exact opposite effect (a) now, and (b) for years to come.

[Equipoise]

Just so it’s in the same thread, here is
The Full List of Winners

Best Picture:

Birdman
Best Director:

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman
Best Actor:

Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
Best Actress:

Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor:

JK Simmons – Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress:

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Best Animated Feature:

Big Hero 6
Best Adapted Screenplay:

Graham Moore – The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay:

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris Jr, Armando Bo – Birdman
Best Cinematography:

Emmanuel Lubezki – Birdman
Best Costume:

Milena Canonero- The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Documentary Feature:

CitizenFour
Best Documentary Short Subject:

Ellen Goosenberg Kent & Dana Perry – Crisis Hotline 1
Best Film Editing:

Tom Cross – Whiplash
Best Foreign Language Film:

IDA
Best Make Up and Hairstyling

Frances Hannon, Mark Coulier- The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Score:

Alexandre Desplat – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Song:

Glory – Selma
Best Production Design:

Adam Stockhausen (production design) and Anna Pinnock (set decoration) – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Animated Short Film:

FEAST
Best Live Action Short Film:

Matt Kirkby & James Lucas – The Phone Call
Best Sound Editing:

Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman – American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing:

Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley – Whiplash
Best Visual Effects:

Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher – Interstellar