538 places the odds for Republican Senate control at 75%. But it will jump to 86% if Cory Gardner ® wins in Colorado. And one network has called it for Gardner already. That would cross the threshold from “Lean Republican control” to “Likely Republican control” according to MfM labs.
12 seats. Did I say 12 seats? I meant 14 seats.
This will lessen suffering by increasing freedom and reducing government nanny-statism. It’s a great day.
Say whatever you want. All I care about is the money you lost by running your mouth, and my only ire is that your mouth running was among the more restrained examples. The really mouthy ones had deeply pious reasons never to bet, which meant they wanted the ability to offer up absurd predictions and never be accountable for their error.
Exit polling moves Virginia into the “In play” column. Could be an upset for the Republicans.
According to the 538 model, these seats were in play:
Kansas
North Carolina
Iowa
Colorado (projected R)
Alaska
Georgia
New Hampshire (projected D)
Louisiana (projected Runoff)
and now
Virginia
Joking aside Bricker, and for the purposes of the folks at home, I don’t recall betting $100. I also don’t recall your 3:1 prediction, but I haven’t combed through your posts. Just to prevent any misunderstandings.
Fox just called Wisconsin for Walker. Love it!
Before any health care reforms Job Lock and insane premium costs for people wanting to start their own businesses leads only to a system that only a feudal lord would love… or big companies that would not like to see more competition appearing.
There is in reality less freedom in the version of government you want.
Walker beats Burke.
And he’s not indicted! For liberals this must be like the “Mirror, Mirror” universe where Spock had a beard. Scott Walker hurt unions, and is therefore Evil. What is happening???
Again, this is like someone saying, “If the Colts can’t beat the Giants by more than 21 points, it’ll be a humiliation for the Colts.” I think the winning side gets to determine how it feels about its victory.
As much as I wish, it’s not likely.
National Review is saying that the IA race has been called for Ernst. Which I really hate when stations do that while the supposed winner is trailing in the polls.
Warner just vaulted back over GIllespie.
CBS calls Georgia for Perdue, no runoff.
Warner has just squeaked ahead with a chunk of populous and blue Fairfax county still out. I suspect he will survive, but by a razor-thin margin.
ETA: May have spke too soon on that. Looks like Fairfax might be in. Stupid CNN maps.
No, it’s like if the Colts beat Podunk University’s swim team by more than 21 points in an exhibition match. The winds favored Republican Control this election, though the odds were ~60% in August (mild), and 75% on the eve of the election.
(Though if you look at the distributions setting the goalpost at 10 or 12 seats is just silly. woosh)
Keep in mind that GA will be going to a runoff. We need 2 more seats to clinch tonight.
Sorry. You did participate in a 6:1 discussion which did not bear fruit, and I confused you with DSeid, who did accept a 3:1 wager with me to the tune of $100. I should have re-read the thread to confirm.
I’m guessing you don’t still want that 6:1 bet? 
nm
THe polls in VA were skewed!