2016 NFL Draft Discussion

The Game Room
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I’ve been a draftnik for years now. I assemble my own top 100 prospect lists, watch tons of college game tape, read scouting reports, obsess over combine arm measurements, and marvel at some of the crazy names. I was unable to do any of that this year. :frowning:

Instead, I bought an apartment building. Almost every waking minute outside of my day job has been spent fixing things, or painting or unpacking.

My 49ers pick 7th, and I barely have a list 8 names long. I’ll still watch the draft, but I’ll actually have to pay attention to the player profiles this time around.

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So I’ve learned a lot more about the terms of Bradford’s deal and I now think its highly likely there will be suitors, and the challenge won’t be the money but instead compensation.

First, I said the Eagles were stupid to overpay when they didn’t have to. They were bidding against no one. If you’re paying market price for a long term answer at QB, it’s still worth the money or picks if you have no other cheaper options. The issue was that they structured a stupid contract that didn’t make sense at the time, and Bradford is the exact opposite of long term.

The big but is that the deal has $22M in guaranteed money, but $11M of it was a signing bonus that’s already been paid and won’t be transferred to the new team. His new team would only be obligated to pay him $7M this year and $4M next year with incentives and unguaranteed salary that could go up to $14M in year 2.

So if you’re the Broncos, you could rent Bradford for 1 year for just $7M and probably renegotiate year 2 down to a palatable number if they decide to hang onto him longer term. Pretty reasonable I think. Ditto for the Jets who should view Bradford as a cheaper, more fragile short term, upgrade over Fitzpatrick.

But, this means that the Eagles have to get something meaningful back to offset that $11M in sunk costs. Would a 2nd round pick in this years draft do it? Would a 3rd? Would they take picks in future years, or maybe another pricey short time veteran like Wilkerson or Ware? Are they willing to watch that $11M go up in flames because Bradford’s feeling are hurt? Are they interested in keeping Bradford around to mentor a rookie QB when he’s made it clear he’s not willing in being a seat warmer?

If I’m the Eagles, I want to grab Ware from the Broncos straight up. It’s a lateral move in salary and you probably have a shot at retaining Ware after the season. I’m not sure if the Broncos are interested in swapping a key defensive piece for a short-term QB, probably depends if they have any interest in resigning Ware next season or not and how much dead money they have to take before June 1 if they move him.

I’m not sure anyone would give much in the way of draft picks for someone as injury prone as Bradford and who probably isn’t in anyone’s long term plans.

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I’ve had some time to review some of the prospects and have formed a few opinions. I haven’t gone quite as deep into the pool as I have in the past so I probably won’t have real strong opinions on the 5-7th round guys this time around, but I think I’ll post a quick thumbs up/thumbs down for most of the more mainstream guys. As a side note, I foolishly booked a flight for Thursday night and will be stuck watching the draft from a plane…if I can get the programming in my seat (please!).

Let’s go.

Guys I like in the Top 10:
**QB - Carson Wentz **
Best QB in the draft. I really need size, speed and durability in my guy. I also need an arm that can make all the throws. Intangibles matter, smarts matter and leadership matters, but you need the tools first. I’ve seen no reason to think Wentz lacks those intangibles, and I’m far more worried about Goff’s air raid/pistol offense than I am Wentz’s level of competition.
OT - Jack Conklin
I like his all around game more than Tunsil and Stanley. Both of these guys will probably be solid, neither is Erick Flowers, but I love Conklin’s positional versatility, run/pass balance and aggressiveness.
DL - DeForest Buckner
This is my dream pick for the Bears. No chance he slides to them of course, that would be a huge shock, but he would totally transform the Bears D Line at the 5 technique. Love the height, reach, run stop and pass rush ability from the inside. I hope he doesn’t end up playing out of position in a 4-3 base. Best player in the draft.
DL - Sheldon Rankins
He’s undersized and probably needs to find the right team with the right system, but I see a little Aaron Donald in him. I think he’s going to make a team really really happy, but probably won’t ever be a household name.
DB - Vernon Hargreaves III
Little touch and go on this guy. I really like his film, but if there’s 2 things I really need in my CBs it’s the size to match up against the Brandon Marshall/Dez Bryant types in the red zone and recovery speed. Those are the two biggest questions people have about him. I like him because lack of speed doesn’t show itself often on film, which makes me think he has enough football speed, and he’s plenty strong to play press.

Guys I question in the Top 10:
QB - Jared Goff
I don’t think he’s terrible, but I think the Rams will make a mistake taking him over Wentz. Mediocre arm, never taken snaps under center, small hands, lots of fumbles and has never had to make sophisticated reads or adjustments at the line. He does lots of good things too, but I don’t love his ceiling.
DL - Joey Bosa
I think he’s really overrated. Great motor and effort, consistently gets into the backfield which is good and he’s a first round talent, but he doesn’t belong in the top 5. I worry about his strength and speed and how he’ll fare when the level of competition jumps. I also think it’s likely he’s been aided by being the premiere guy on a loaded defense. Don’t expect Vonn Miller.
DB - Jalen Ramsey
This one is kind of like Goff, in that I think he’s going to be a productive player but people have been really forgiving of his flaws. His ball skills suck and he didn’t play with a lot of discipline or master any one position. He won with moxie, guts and competitiveness plus copious amounts of strength and speed. That’s great and will probably serve him well, but I think he’s going to get chewed up by complicated route combos and precise route runners. In the right system he’ll be great, but he’ll never be Revis Island.
LB - Myles Jack
For a while he was the 3rd or 4th LB and then suddenly he shot to the top of the board. And I get it, his highlight reel is impressive but I don’t think he’ll ever be able to stay on the field. He’s a little undersized and probably can’t play inside. A linebacker who can cover is golden, so I love that, but he’s way to big a gamble for the top 5 where’s he being projected lately.
RB - Ezekiel Elliott
This ones simple, he’s a running back and he’s not Adrian Peterson. He’s very, very good, but I’m not sure any RB deserves to be taken in the top 10 anymore. I’ll give him this, his pass protection, receiving and the way he sets up blockers is NFL ready. lf I’m drafting in the top 10 I’d rather have Buckner/Tunsil/Conklin/Jack and Devontae Booker or CJ Prosise in the 3rd.

Other first rounders I think will go too low:
DL - Kevin Dodd
I won’t be shocked if someone is in love with him and grabs him in the top 10, but most people have him near the bottom of the first round and sometimes slipping to the second. I think he’s the the best pure edge rusher in the draft, ahead of Lawson. Small body of work, but I think he’s just getting started.
WR - Josh Doctson
This guy just jumps off the screen. A few people have taken a liking to him so he may end up being the first guy off the board. He’s maybe the best route runner, has prototype size and speed and is and catches the ball effortlessly.

Other first rounders I think will go too high:
DT - A’Shawn Robinson, DT - Jarran Reed, OL - Ryan Kelly, LB - Reggie Ragland
So yeah, I don’t like Alabama players. Their flaws are always masked by the loaded teams around them and Nick Saban inflates their value with the media. It’s basically the football equivalent of the cheerleader effect.
QB - Paxton Lynch, QB - Connor Cook, QB - Christian Hackenberg
Teams will reach for at least 1 of these guys, probably 2. I really dislike Lynch and don’t see his game translating to the NFL at all, and I think Cook can be a backup for a long time but I don’t think he’s going to fare better than any of the other Michigan State QBs. Hackenberg is the interesting one in that he’s got the makings of a terrific NFL QB, but he needs too much grooming and presents too much risk to take in the first. In the second or third I’d start getting interested.
WR - Will Fuller, WR - Laquan Treadwell
Grouping these 2 guys together because they are exact opposites from each other. Fuller is small, frail and has bad hands but crazy fast. He’s either Desean Jackson or Ted Ginn, I think the latter. Treadwell is huge, strong, and has great ball skills, but he’s slow as dirt. Some people think he can be DeAndre Hopkins or Anquan Boldin, or maybe just Mike Williams (USC). I think Treadwell is by far the better prospect and I think Anquan Boldin is a really good comp, but I don’t think he’s going to be worth a top 15 pick.

We’ll see how it pans out.

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This is who I am hoping for the Chargers to take.

I know the going thought is we should run to the podium to drafting Tunsil, but we have 3 OTs on the team that we aren’t going to be cut. So a tackle overloads us at that position. Add to that, our OL played so terribly in large part because it was a shambles of the line we started the season with. We need to improve the interior (Nick Martin 2nd round pick!) and depth, but for this season, the OTs are what they are.

I think defensive linenismour most glaring need. Buckner addresses the fact we allowed 5 yards per carry last season and gives us an interior pass rush. He’s just what we need. Bosa is safer . He probably has a higher floor than Buckner… but Buckner has the higher ceiling.

That all being said… Tom Telesco has been our GM a few years now. I think I’m getting a bead on how he operates. In each of his drafts, he took a guy that replaced a big loss. Starting with Fluker (With Lotulelei still on the board! I still am a little angry about it ), Verrett and Gordon. This year… big FA loss of Eric Weddle… I will be shocked if we do not take Jalen Ramsey

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I’m torn. I’d like the Cowboys to take Ramsey but if the Chargers do, the Cowboys could probably trade back and get some more picks. They definitely need multiple areas but Ramsey would help solidify the secondary for a few years.

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If any team is justified in grabbing Elliott its the Cowboys. They have a aging, fragile QB in who the clock is ticking on, a great offensive line to turn him into an offensive centerpiece and the perfect WR in Dez to shut down those 8 man boxes. The defense is bad, but they are in win-now mode and their odds are better that they’ll outscore people than become great on D.

It’s still a short term POV at the 4th overall pick which is bad, but it makes a damn compelling case considering the situation in place.

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I’m surprised you’re so high on Wentz but low on Goff - but I suppose you’re starting from the physical attributes first. Wentz has a better arm and a big body, sure, but Goff’s arm isn’t bad (he’s certainly better than Alex Smith or Teddy Bridgewater). Wentz being an FCS player doesn’t necessarily bother me, but the fact that he only started 23 games does (I think he threw something like 600 passes in college whereas Goff threw 1500 - that’s a lot more film to watch).

Most of the writeups I’ve seen on Wentz have said that he basically just throws to his first option, and often won’t throw it until his receiver is already out of his break… he’ll need a LOT of grooming/coaching. He might well be smart enough to do so (unlike, say, Colin Kaepernick, who is hard worker but after a few years it’s become pretty clear he’s just not that smart) but I’d be worried, especially if he gets thrust into starting too soon. Goff, on the other hand, already took his lumps at Cal. Though it won’t surprise me if the Rams basically waste him for the first few years because that offense is completely talent-defecit aside from Gurley.

I really think he needs to get drafted by a team willing to use him as a cover LB to cover tight ends or such. Plenty of room for that in today’s NFL, as it seems a lot of teams still haven’t caught up to how to defend pass-catching TEs or slot receivers properly. The big question now is his knee.

Eh, I think the whole “can find runners later” thing is a bit overblown. The real reason for the slip in running back value is because pass-blocking has become much more important in today’s pass-first offenses, and for awhile teams were still grabbing the great athletes early while the subpar athletes who could pass block were slipping down late. But I think there’s starting to be an adjustment. So a complete player like Elliott, who can pass block, catch, and do it all, is worth it.

Completely agree, though I’m actually probably even more negative on these guys than you are. Cook will probably be a journeyman backup, and the other two will likely be busts.

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I’ve not done any research this year, but Wentz seems like one of those guys who was on no one’s radar all year, then suddenly the silly season begins and someone notices he’s 6’4 260 and now he vaults up to being in contention for the #1 overall pick. I’m always pretty skeptical of those guys.

Meanwhile, players that are just really good at playing football but apparently have a limited ceiling because they aren’t 6’4 260 get underrated.

Goff all the way for me.

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Even without Romo and Dez for much of last year, the replacement-level backs were less than 500 yards from what they put up with Murray having an amazing season in 2014, so I don’t know if such a high pick is worth 400-500 more rushing yards a season.

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McFadden was actually pretty good last year and the Cowboys just signed Alfred Morris. Now, those guys are 28 and 27 years old, respectively, but they ought to hold up for the short term.

I heard Wentz was a projected 3rd/4th rounder before the college season. Then he apparently lit up D1-AA and became a mid/late first rounder. Then he had a nice run of pro-days and a good combine and became a top 5 guy. He might turn out to be great, but I also don’t trust that kind of rise in value based on low level of competition and practices.

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The dream is to trade back to 5 with the Jaguars, they take Ramsey, Cowboys take Elliot, and we get Buckner and some picks, but I’m fine with just taking Buckner at 3. Ramsey is my second choice, but I agree that he may be the likely pick

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I’m not actually THAT high on Wentz. Overall I think this is a weak QB class, I just think Wentz is the best of the group. He’s no Andrew Luck.

I prefer Wentz for 2 real reasons: physical tools - I don’t love “good enough” guys at QB. Worked for Montana and Brady obviously, but those are extreme outliers and the risk of recurring injuries terrify me; and I’m really leery of QBs who thrive in air raid systems, the QBs job in these systems is so different than in the NFL. I actually think Wentz’s learning curve from FCS is less steep than Goff’s from Cal. We’ll see.

Your assessment of Wentz is probably fair, but I think you dismiss the questions about Goff’s transition simply because he comes from a Big 5 school. System really matters, and the list of guys who succeeded out of those offenses is really short. I think Wentz’s college profile looks a bit like Big Ben’s did, really rough as a rookie but he’ll survive. I worry that Goff won’t be able to perform the pre-snap reads, adjustments, hot calls, and audibles that could prevent him from getting pretzeled. That plus the scrawniness is what has me pulling back.

I watched this YouTube video from some no-name guy breaking down Christian Hackenberg that I thought really drove home the importance of understanding NFL concepts. Goff and Lynch will be starting from zero on this stuff.

That knee… And he’s really undersized to play in the box which means the likelihood of more serious injuries goes way up. Love the tape, but I don’t know that he has an NFL body. He could be the Bob Sanders of NFL Linebackers.

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Wentz going in the late first round on both McShay and Kiper’s mock drafts back in December. He didn’t come from nowhere, but definitely climbed.

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Careful comparing a committee to a single guy. The Vikings 2-4th RBs combined for just shy of 600 yards with AP in the fold.

The top 4 backs in Dallas in 2014 had over 2300 yards, in 2015 is was about 1600. That’s a big difference.

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Missed that the first time around. An extra 400-500 yards a season over replacement is absolutely worth a high pick - probably the #1 overall pick. That’s a crazy amount to just handwave away. That amounts to one player increasing a rushing offense’s entire output by 20-25%.

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Merry Draftsmas to all! And to all a good pick! (except the Seahawks).

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Rams are on the clock. Anyone here?

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Well it’s a big day for the Lions, We only get to see a management regime fuck up it’s first draft a few times decade.

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Wow, the NFL Live app on my Verizon phone is pretty far behind. Oh well.

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How far behind can it be? This started before the C’s/Hawks, and they got through 3 whole picks before the end of the first quarter. I really want to get into this but I can’t imagine watching it full time rather than as something to flip to every ten minutes.