I suspect this is one of those years where the QBs started getting talked up for no other reason than that they are at the QB position. It was only a few weeks ago where the accepted wisdom was that the QB class was just awful this year - what happened to make that change? I suspect nothing beyond media saturation.
As a Giants fan, I too am suffering mock draft burnout. Those might be interesting if your team is taking one of the first 5 or so players, but forget it if they draft much beyond that. The last several years, the Giants took players that were not among the most discussed possibilities beforehand. Sometimes that worked out (Beckham Jr., Apple) and sometimes not (Flowers).
I’d like to see the Giants take an OL, LB, or TE first, but realize they could wind up with practically anyone since they are picking 23rd. But a lot of the mock drafts I’ve seen have them going for QB or RB. Those would surprise me.
I consider myself a “draftnik” who normally reads scouting reports on scores of prospects and watches game tape of dozens. I’ve compiled big boards and written draft guides for friends and coworkers. But then I moved out of state from my team and those friends, bought a four-unit apartment building in need of extensive repairs, and for this year my holdup is a baby*. I miss studying the draft.
That said I did get some work in. My 49ers pick second, so the fireworks will be early tonight. My top prospect is Trade. Try to stay within the top 12, but take what you can get and trade down. They’ve been linked to trades with the Panthers and even the Browns (with the #12 pick they added last year). I think there’s impact prospects there just add much as at #2.
Myles Garrett would of course be the first choice otherwise. I’m not entirely sold, but he’s sure got everything you can ask for in an Edge prospect. I rather like safety Malik Hooker as a single high center fielder. Fellow safety Jamal Adams and ambiguous D-lineman Solomon Thomas out of Stanford ate getting buzz to the Niners, too.
Just NOT amy of the “top” QBs. If anything I like Nathan Peterman as a mid round developmental guy.
*: 6 days old today, yay! Future #1 draft pick, 2039.)
So how much of the baseball/numbers influence do you think will be applied to the Browns’ QB pick?
There are two ways to go about it using cold-hard baseball logic…
The margin of talent difference between the “top tier” QBs and the “second tier” QBs is very small. Logically, the cost of spending a high-round pick on a QB isn’t much different between whomever you think is the best and who is 2 or 3 QBs lower.
Draft the guy you want and literally make him sit for a good, long time. There’s no AAA in football, but you can certainly just not play him for a while and let the guy develop…just like a baseball player.
My thought is number 1 in spades. The talent you’re missing out on by drafting Mitchell in the first round is much greater than the difference in talent between him and the kid out of Texas Tech.
Hopefully DePodesta is as smart as we all think he is and drafts smart
They seem pretty emphatic about it too, has me thinking it’s either legit or the Browns are really trying to pressure someone into trading up with them. Probably the former.
Seems like this really helps the 49ers, they want to trade back and if someone is high on Trubisky that’s probably the spot.
After stewing on this, I think I want 1 of 2 outcomes for the Bears at 3. Jamal Adams or trade down.
If Garrett is a generational talent that everyone wants, then yeah, you want him to slip to 2 so you can draft him or trade him.
But, if you think Garrett, Thomas, Allen and Charelton are just a few percentage points apart and you think QB desperate teams really want Trubisky, you want him to be there at 2.
I think the 49ers really want to trade back and I think there are a lot more buyers for Trubisky than for Garrett, simply due to QB scarcity and the dynamics of being a bottom 10 team without an identity.
Seems a lot of teams want to trade down, as the draft appears to be loaded in the middle of the first round without any super clear-cut “OMG, a SUPERSTAR” projected in the top ten, especially the QB’s.
I think Garrett, Adams, Fournette and McCaffery may fall into the category of superstar prospects.
The problem is that the QB class is really weak and the teams that REALLY need a QB seems to be in a more dire situation than usual. The Browns, 49ers, Jets and Bears are really bankrupt at the position, and Houston, Buffalo and Arizona aren’t much better. Seems like there’s a lot of desperation.
Um. Well, I said they needed to get a QB in the first 2 rounds. They sure as shit didn’t need to trade up I don’t think, unless the Jags were offering a better deal for him.
