2018 Election Contest WINNERS

Yes, the last races have finally been called, my friends.

Our winner is:

Wesley Clark with a score of 3!

Wesley Clark’s guess:
D House: 235
D Senate: 50
D Vote %: 56

Our final totals were:

D House: 235
D Senate: 47
D Vote %: 54.24

The tiebreaker did not come into play.

Let’s give the winner a hand, people! As stated, Wesley Clark wins a customer title for the next year proclaiming their awesomeness.

Here’s our top ten:
Wesley Clark: 3
Monocracy: 4
Steve MB: 6
DinoR: 7
Richard Parker: 8
Malcalc: 8
USCDiver: 9
Dseid: 9
iiandyiiii: 10
Thing Fish: 10

And our bottom 5 (discounting kaylasdad99’S non-serious guess):
Aspenglow: 47
pjacks: 37
Sherred: 34
BobLibDem: 29
UltraVires: 28

Is it too early to start the 2020 contest?

I made it into the top 10! After the first results, it looked like my guess was well into the bottom half, but all that counting vastly improved it. Yay! And congrats to the winner!

And I’m pleased (and relieved!) to see that it appears that liberal Dopers had a better grasp of electoral reality for the 2018 cycle than conservative Dopers, at least in this contest.

Are you going by the results above? Because I’m fairly certain only UltraVires would qualify on this board as a conservative among the bottom guessers. Aspenglow and BobLibDem look to have been overly optimistic liberals, Sherred and pjacks overly pessimistic liberals.

Not just those, but my understanding of the overall results, in which (based on my reading) no conservative Dopers got close to the correct results, while several liberal Dopers did.

When I get home tonight I’ll post the entire results. Some of them are interesting. And the finish was tight. I think that without CA-21 going D Wesley Clark wouldn’t have won.

Thanks! I know I didn’t make the Top Ten, but I also didn’t make the Bottom Five. I’ll wait to find out just how bad my prognostications actually were.

The worst results were 4 liberal Dopers and one conservative. At least 4 of the top ten, I really don’t know. You shouldn’t be particularly pleased that a board that’s about 80% Democrats had Democrats in the top ten guesses.

It could be that a lot of people were making guesses based on their own ideological views and it just happened that the nation’s voting patterns were more liberal than conservative this election.

It’s like asking fans of two opposing football teams which of their teams will win an upcoming game. Both groups of fans will generally predict their own team’s victory. But the half that are subsequently proven correct weren’t any better at analyzing the game than the half that guessed wrong.

Wesley Clark 01/24/18 3.00
Monocracy 11/05/18 4.00
Steve MB 11/05/18 6.00
DinoR 01/25/18 7.00
Melcalc 11/05/18 8.00
Richard Parker 10/31/18 8.00
Dseid 01/22/18 9.00
USCDiver 01/21/18 9.00
iiandyiiii 03/15/18 10.00
Thing Fish 09/13/18 10.00
Buck Godot 11/05/18 11.00
JkellyMap 03/25/18 11.00
Railer13 01/22/18 11.00
Ravenman 01/24/18 11.00
Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 11.00
septimus 10/10/18 12.00
adaher 01/23/18 15.00
Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 15.00
Will Farnaby 11/05/18 15.00
I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 16.00
Johnny Ace 01/23/18 16.00
Smitty 10/16/18 16.00
Hari Seldon 04/27/18 17.00
Kolak of Twilo 11/05/18 18.00
wonky 03/04/18 18.00
Pleonast 08/17/18 19.00
Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 21.00
Larry Borgia 07/04/18 21.00
Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 23.00
Bone 01/22/18 24.00
Pleonast 01/22/18 24.00
D’Anconia 01/27/18 26.00
Silver Lining 02/16/18 26.00
Gray Ghost 03/29/18 27.00
UltraVires 01/26/18 28.00
BobLibDem 01/23/18 29.00
Sherrerd 03/05/18 34.00
pjacks 03/04/18 37.00
Aspenglow 01/23/18 47.00
kaylasdad99 03/27/18 211.00

It doesn’t really mean anything, but by my understanding of the board members who chose to participate, the handful of conservatives among them are clustered towards the bottom of those final standings (with maybe 1 or 2 in the middle, depending on who counts as conservative). And I could be missing a few, of course, since I’m not positive about the politics of everyone. It’s a silly and mostly meaningless victory to celebrate, but I’ll celebrate it nonetheless!

You ended up 13th, my friend. That’s not bad.

It was rigged!!!


I did. :slight_smile: I had hoped for a much larger knock-on effect from a blue wave that would overwhelm the gerrymandering, but I was wrong.

Still, it was a blue wave and I’m thrilled with it.

Congratulations to all the winners!!

Except we were also asked to predict the final score. And maybe the person who came really close to predicting the score knows a little more than everybody else.

Or maybe that person is just lucky.

Possibly. Or one side was better at following Nate Silver. :wink:

cough I’m a registered Republican. cough

But are you a conservative? If so, are you a Trumper? If not, then I’ll amend my statement to Trumpers and anti-Trumpers. Not that it matters either way.

When we avoid the common treatment of conservative as being synonymous with Republican, I’m moderate or centrist. I’m decidedly not a Trumper.

Little_Nemo’s point about picking what you wish probably has a lot of bearing. I’ve never been all that partisan. The last 3 years have seen both parties actively running away from my vote while partisans on both sides line up to demonize me. Being dispassionate came pretty easily. :stuck_out_tongue:

Fair enough. So my point still stands, silly as it is! :wink:

Mmm. Good to be in the Top Ten, the Top Five to top it off! I’ll see how my prognostication powers fare in 2020.