James Carville on MSNBC is saying that the Dems may win the house, but there’s really no chance of a wave anymore.
According to CNN, Beto leads Cruz 51>48 w/ 32% in.
I agree. Looks like a flaw in the website. Nothing is out there to suggest such a drastic change…dammit! 
From 538 commentor:
“You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.”
NATHANIEL RAKICH from 538:
“You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.”
From Nathaniel Rakich on 538:
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
Ok…their real time forecast is back to over 50% for Dems.
Seems to me it is nearly worthless. It is merely taking stats of the moment and adjusting its prediction. So when a deep red/blue district reports it’ll skew the percentages bigly. But then the next district comes in and skews it the other way.
In short, without a human to interpret what is happening this thing will yo-yo like mad till near the end and is not of much use.
ETA: ninja’d by pretty much everyone.
Latest blog from 538.com:
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Anyone know if Nathaniel Rakich from 538 has said anything recently about the aggressiveness of their real-time forecast?
I won that race!
Umm, that seems a pretty dumb way to set up your forecast. Setting it up so a few 75% reds go to 100% shouldn’t swing the overall prediction a lot at all.
Damn. I said it in the post above you. Pay attention!
The funny thing is I came here to post that exact quote. I’m still gonna major stink-eye them for the heart attack that gave me.
What’s going on in FL right now reminds me of when Obama was trailing Romney there in 2012 (Obama won).
Oh sorry, so many things going on!
Ahhh, they’re 2018-style “math race”.
Yeah, I don’t get it…gimme a single outcome like a baseball team or a single candidate and i can figure it out but this??
I hope someone from 538 (perhaps Nathaniel Rakich) has an explanation for the real-time forecast. Have they even taken into account the fact that the democrats haven’t had the chance to clinch likely democratic districts the way republicans have???
(seriously though, this is really testing my stomach)
First?
Edit:
FIRST!