Marco Rubio is whining that the Florida Democrats are being meanies by demanding that every vote be counted.
The noive of those guys!
Hey, Marco! Voter confidence, baby, is a valid neutral justification!
Yes?
Maybe the “socialists” can win after all.
Big shoutout to Nate Silver’s 538 model for the midterm – it’s looking like their overall prediction about the House will be within an incredible 2 seats or so. Their Senate predictions were not quite as close, and depending on the FL and AZ results might be as close as 2 seats off, but could be 3 or 4. Their live election-eve model was a bit nuts, but that was more of a novelty than the real model that was months in the making.
If it wasn’t already clear, this should cement that, once again, Nate Silver and his team are the premier election prognosticators, to the point that there’s really no reason to trust anyone who is disagreeing with their prediction about something election-related.
So, in light of recount revelations of the last 24 hours, what is the consensus thought on the outcome of the following races?
– Sinema vs McSally
– Nelson vs Scott
– Gillum vs DeSantis
– Abrams vs Kemp
Nate Silver just tweeted:
"Among Senate races held in swing states, Democrats won in PA, OH, MI, WI, MN (x2), NV and VA.
FL and AZ are uncalled.
Republicans haven’t yet won any Senate races yet in what you’d think of a presidential swing states. MO is the closest but it’s quite red now."
This was a really good election for the Democrats. The Senate was a very rough map, but they still won almost all (if not all, after the recounts) of the swing state Senate races.
Hey! Several of us did as well and with predictions that went back to being made in January! My January call (see the contest thread: 228 49) for example is also likely to end up as the House within two or three and the Senate within two or three at worst (less likely within one). And later calls by some did even better. The knowledge of our crowd, again with picks over the period since January and most before the end of March and before 538 published their first calls, was House of D232 and Senate D49 … also not a bad prognostication, likely within an incredible two seats or so for the House and within one to three for the Senate, depending on final counts and recounts.
Give the Dope its props as premier prognostication!
An uncle posted on FB that Democrats are trying to ‘steal’ Arizona and Florida.
I thought it was the Republicans who don’t want all of the votes counted.
Yeah, Rick Scott and Little Marco in Florida are crying that same river.
Nelson’s lawyer is currently taking the difference between the # of votes for Governor vs. the # of total votes for Senator and comparing them. There’s a big difference between the two in (dem-leaning) Palm Beach County, so he’s speculating there may have been a “grand screw-up”.
Steve Kornacki, for what it’s worth, is pointing at poor ballot design as the likely cause.
I dunno. Anyone hear from maybe Nathaniel Rakich, maybe on election night on how aggressive their model was originally?
“Consensus” is not really a thing when the situation is changing rapidly, but those are probably in order from likely D win to likely R win.
Sinema seems to have been pulling ahead enough to win it at last check. Expect more recounts though.
Nelson/Scott will likely depend on the “missing” Broward/Palm Beach Senate votes - if they genuinely weren’t marked, Scott will probably win; if they were marked but not counted by the machine, Nelson has a better chance of pulling it out. Either way, Scott remains a whiny little bitch.
Gillum/DeSantis - a closer race but unless there’s also a missing stash of gubernatorial votes I’m expecting DeSantis to hang on. Gillum has more ground to make up than Nelson does.
And as for Kemp/Abrams, there’s been so much dirty pool involved by Kemp and the GOP and given they are still the ones who would ‘investigate’ that dirty pool I’m not expecting Abrams to win barring a minor miracle, but she ought to give him all the hell she can. Expect a court case full of sound and fury and accomplishing nothing, because Georgia politics are corrupt as fuck right now.
There are lots of other downticket races in the recount zone; for example, in the deeply exciting race for Florida Agricultural Commissioner, Democrat Nikki Fried has edged ahead of Republican Matt Caldwell who had been leading since election night. And one of my wife’s old school friends is in a tight and still undecided three-way race for the Public Service Commission in Georgia. Gripping stuff.
Have we not held elections often enough, above all in Florida for chrissakes, to know how ballots ought to be laid out? Sheesh.
Rick Scott sent police to the ballot counting offices in Broward County, which is Democratic, to “make sure there is no wrong-doing”.
The hell are police supposed to do?
Intimidate.
Rumors are afoot of ballot boxes being carried about in private vehicles.
Florida Department of Law Enforcement says there is no evidence of vote counting fraud.
“At that time, the suspect proceeded to brandish what appeared to be a punch card or other type of weapon, and proceeded to ignore repeated commands to drop it, causing me to fear for my life…”