2018 US midterm elections

Trey Gowdy(R:SC) has announced that he will not run for re-election this year.

House is degrading for them as well, with their generic ballot lead down to +6, which is probably not quite enough to take back the House.

The Democrats are just picking the wrong battles right now.

If the current #TrumpSlump becomes an ongoing thing, the GOP is in even worse trouble than we thought. :eek: :smiley:

I’m really confused how you read that article and concluded “Things keep looking good for Dems to take the House”. CNN rates 176 seats as Solid Republican, 25 as likely Republican, and 21 as Lean Republican. That alone is good enough for a majority even if the Dems managed to win every single one of the tossup seats. According to your cite, things are NOT looking good for Dems to take the House.

What is the “#TrumpSlump” in your eyes?

Penna. redistricting, SCOTUS and the midterms: https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/05/politics/pennsylvania-redistricting-ruling/index.html

What effect might a Grand Military Parade have on the election if is held the weekend before voting day with lots of hype during the run up to the midterms?

If it were seen as pre-North-Korea-attack posturing, it could seriously hurt Republicans. If it were seen as “Making America Great Again” it might help them.

I think the plan is for it to be held on Independence Day, but of course that could change.

Fundraising update in House races: https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/07/politics/house-key-race-ratings-changes/index.html

Looking at that map, it’s still gonna be a tight squeeze for Dems to win the House. Even if they win all of the blue dots, and all of the yellow toss-ups, they’d still fall short. They’d need to take 20% (4) of the “Lean Republican” seats to take back the gavel. Not impossible, but not anywhere near a slam dunk.

That being said, I’m fired up to donate to and volunteer for the Democrat challenging my congressman, who has served this “Solid Republican” district since 2011. But more importantly, there is serious organizing within the county party and local Indivisible group around the Dem challenger right now too. So if there’s this level of activity and excitement surrounding a candidate who is a reeeeeeeeeaaaaaal longshot to win, I can only hope there’s even more stuff happening in the “Lean Republican” and "Likely Republican"districts. If so, then things might get good in November.

I also think a lot depends on the economy going into the fall. If things are humming, the Dems *could *still take the House, but it would be harder. And I’d actually bet on Republicans keeping the House if the economy seems to be as good as it’s been for the past year or so.

But if there’s even a *perception *of an economy that’s tanking-- just a whiff of negativity in the news-- you’re going to see several “Lean Republican” seats easily go Dem. Many people might be looking for any reason to vote against this unpopular party and its president, but if the economy seems to be going fine, it’ll be harder for them to actually do it (in districts that typically lean red). A shaky economy gives them a reason and more confidence to vote Dem.

However, going beyond just perceptions of a shaky economy, if the stock market continues to go down, you’re going to see the blue bloods who only supported Trump for financial reasons (but think he’s a dumbass schmuck) flip or stay home, and that’s when Dems could start picking off those sweet, sweet “Likely Republican” seats.

Hatred for Trump goes a long way with firing up the base, but I think to flip seats from “lean red” and “likey red,” it’s going to come down to the economy (or at least the perception of it).

Over the last few months I think the Republicans have marginally improved their position.

1)Trump’s popularity is at 41% which is poor but not catastrophic. The generic ballot has also moved a few points towards the Republicans.

2)Whatever else you think about Trump, he is good at rallying his base and I suspect Republican turnout in November will be OK.

  1. The Republicans delivered big for their donor class with their tax cut and I think that whatever money problems their candidates are facing right now, will fade away as the election comes closer.

4)The Democrats seem to have decided to focus mostly on rallying their base with issues like immigration and lack a strong economic message that will appeal to a wide swathe of voters. In a mid-term election, that strategy could work but only with a narrow margin . It will increase the vulnerability of their Senate candidates in red states. The Democrats also seem reluctant to nominate centrists in purple districts which will reduce their chances of re-taking the House. As usual, I think they are overestimating their position and underestimating how much they need voters beyond their base.

There is still a long way to go and overall the Democrats are definitely in a stronger position. The Mueller investigation may deliver a bombshell and the economy could slow down. Trump’s White House is still a garbage fire. The Democrats still have the time to fine-tune their strategy and recruit good candidates.

Still, I am less confident than I was three months back that the Democrats will retake either chamber. Their basic problem is that it’s not enough to do well, they have to do well enough to overcome their structural disadvantages: the Senate map and gerrymandered House seats. The Democrats have an energized base but I think they need more than that.

I think you underestimate the power of Trump to motivate his opponents to vote. The economy isn’t going to figure that much into the midterms, because Congress really hasn’t done much aside from the tax cuts, and most everyone but Trump’s base recognizes what a joke it really is. However, it will be a referendum on Trump personally anyway. He’s such a shitheel that even independents will tend to vote against the Republican in local House races. I don’t think it’s going to be quite the wave that some people here expect, but I see the House going Dem by a small margin.

From WaPo:

Some notes about that study: that poll is quite possibly an outlier. As the WaPo story states, there’s been no poll within less than 10% of it for the last two weeks. In the RCP Poll of Polls on the generic ballot, Monmouth is a huge outlier, along with the Q poll. RCP has it at Dems +6.7, not anywhere close to Dems +2.

I’d also like to see the party breakdown for the respondents on each question. They don’t even state the party breakdown of respondents! All kinds of things I see are weird there.

See, I follow polls too. And I know something about how to read beyond the numbers.

The GOP will probably hold the Senate with 50, 51 or 52 Senators. The Democrats should be able to take the House — there are many flippable seats in California, New Jersey, etc. It’s up to the Democrats really: Stick to a simple message about priorities … Or let social justice warriorism run amok and turn moderate Repub voters back to Trump.

The current odds at Betfair. Totals do not add to 100% due to vigorishHouse
R 2.2 45.5%
D 1.57 63.7%

D 2.37 42.2%
R 1.53 65.4% (this includes the 19% chance of 50 seats exactly)

I’ve taken the liberty of highlighting an important message in Elvis’ post. When your grandkid asks “What did you do in the war against Trumpism, Daddy?” what will you answer?

The Penna. Supremes approve a new Congressional district map: https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/19/politics/pennsylvania-new-congressional-maps/index.html

Good news for Dems on the statehouse front so far: https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/03/05/democrats-are-sweeping-statehouse-seats-and-its-making-the-gop-nervous/23377784/

A poll suggests older, educated white voters are shifting away from Trump’s GOP: https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/04/09/poll-older-educated-white-voters-shift-away-from-trumps-republican-party/23406545/