Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December?

Looks like the Republican frontrunner, Roy Moore, has issues with a suspension, ethics codes violations, interference, and authority abuse. Doug Jones looks like a solid choice for the Democrats and if the turnout is favorable for Democrats and underwhelming for the Republicans, maybe the Democrats can win.

What will it take for a W?

Let’s just say, “Good luck storming the castle”.


I’ll point out that they (the Princess Bride gang) succeeded in their attempt, against all odds.

Unlikely barring incredible Democratic turnout, but if Moore is nominated the chances go up a bit (maybe from “not a chance” to “not much of a chance”).

is this that Roy Moore? Probably headed for THE SENATE!?!?

Can they? Yes.

Will they? Not likely. Possibility probably less than 5%.

Yes, it’s that Roy Moore. But not probably headed to the Senate. The President has just recently endorsed the temporary incumbent. While Mr. Moore might get a plurality of votes in the primary, I expect he will lose a run-off. But I wouldn’t go banco on it.

Doug Jones has a primary to win first. At least one poll shows him trailing to a random nobody by the name of Robert Kennedy.

More hopes? Democrats seem to never get tired of banging their heads against the wall in hope that the wall gives way.

Seriously, recent Senatorial elections in Alabama, (R) percentages:

1998: 63%
2002: 59%
2004: 67%
2008: 63%
2010: 65%
2014: 97% :slight_smile:
2016: 64%

Not bloody likely (and I say this as a liberal, and someone who regularly visits Alabama for my job).

Alabama is among the reddest of red states. Even if whoever winds up being the Republican candidate were caught two weeks before the election with the trope (a dead girl or a live boy in his bed), I still don’t think he’d lose.

Yes, we do keep hoping that common sense, reason, and humanity will triumph over theocracy, racism, and hatred.

Why do you ask?

Not a chance.

I think Luther Strange will win. He’s the incumbent*, and been endorsed by Trump.

*He was appointed by Governor Bentley to fill Jeff Sessions’ seat. This was crooked as hell - Luther Strange was the Alabama Attorney General at that time, and was investigating Bentley for using state funds to cover up an affair. Strange’s appointment as Senator stopped that investigation, and Bentley was allowed to resign and plead guilty to misdemeanors rather than getting impeached. But I suspect none of this matters to most Alabama voters.

p.s. Mo Brooks probably has a better chance than Roy Moore. He’s currently in Congress (my district, in fact), been a hard-core “Freedom Caucus” (tea party) member, and been in the national news a lot lately. You may know him from an interview where he implied that “people who lead good lives” don’t have preexisting conditions.

For what its worth, there’s a PredictIt market where people are betting real money on this…

Who will win the 2017 U.S. Senate special election in Alabama?

Here’s where the folks mentioned in this thread are trading at right now…

Roy Moore 55¢
Luther Strange 42¢
Mo Brooks 6¢
Doug Jones 4¢

That is not a promising place to be for the Democrat pre-primary, and while those who survive the primary will get bumps, I really don’t see this race being even mildly interesting without a major bombshell dropping.

Also Robert Kennedy Jr. is in the race on the D side. I’ve only read a couple articles about his mysterious, out of the blue, jump into Alabama Democratic Party politics. He reminds me of Al Green from South Carolina in 2010. Al Green won his primary.

Luther has some great campaign slogan potential:

*Vote for some Strange.

Everybody needs a little Strange now and then.

Vote Luther. The Strange one, not Lex.*

Or, to quote an ELO song:

“Got a Strange magic!”

No. It’s a white nationalist stronghold.

In Alabama?

Jesus. People there are that loyal to the GOP? Is it anything to do with liberal policies or just the word “Democrat?”

Like suppose George Wallace rose from the dead and ran, do you think he would lose too?