Looks like the Republican frontrunner, Roy Moore, has issues with a suspension, ethics codes violations, interference, and authority abuse. Doug Jones looks like a solid choice for the Democrats and if the turnout is favorable for Democrats and underwhelming for the Republicans, maybe the Democrats can win.
Unlikely barring incredible Democratic turnout, but if Moore is nominated the chances go up a bit (maybe from “not a chance” to “not much of a chance”).
Yes, it’s that Roy Moore. But not probably headed to the Senate. The President has just recently endorsed the temporary incumbent. While Mr. Moore might get a plurality of votes in the primary, I expect he will lose a run-off. But I wouldn’t go banco on it.
Not bloody likely (and I say this as a liberal, and someone who regularly visits Alabama for my job).
Alabama is among the reddest of red states. Even if whoever winds up being the Republican candidate were caught two weeks before the election with the trope (a dead girl or a live boy in his bed), I still don’t think he’d lose.
I think Luther Strange will win. He’s the incumbent*, and been endorsed by Trump.
*He was appointed by Governor Bentley to fill Jeff Sessions’ seat. This was crooked as hell - Luther Strange was the Alabama Attorney General at that time, and was investigating Bentley for using state funds to cover up an affair. Strange’s appointment as Senator stopped that investigation, and Bentley was allowed to resign and plead guilty to misdemeanors rather than getting impeached. But I suspect none of this matters to most Alabama voters.
p.s. Mo Brooks probably has a better chance than Roy Moore. He’s currently in Congress (my district, in fact), been a hard-core “Freedom Caucus” (tea party) member, and been in the national news a lot lately. You may know him from an interview where he implied that “people who lead good lives” don’t have preexisting conditions.
Here’s where the folks mentioned in this thread are trading at right now…
Roy Moore 55¢
Luther Strange 42¢
Mo Brooks 6¢
Doug Jones 4¢
That is not a promising place to be for the Democrat pre-primary, and while those who survive the primary will get bumps, I really don’t see this race being even mildly interesting without a major bombshell dropping.
Also Robert Kennedy Jr. is in the race on the D side. I’ve only read a couple articles about his mysterious, out of the blue, jump into Alabama Democratic Party politics. He reminds me of Al Green from South Carolina in 2010. Al Green won his primary.