2022 Senate Confidence Pool Contest

Bumping because we should have a winner, in about 12 hours!

I hope it’s not me; I hope it’s not me…

Thanks for bumping.

I feel like this one is going blue and it will be over relatively quickly. Closer to five hours from now than twelve.

Polls close 7 ET.

Inshallah.

Wasserman has seen enough.

Congrats @Hawkeyeop !

Woo hoo!

No network has called it yet. But Dave Wasserman plus PredictIt bettors have called it.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107

It’s over.

NBC made their call. Here are the final results. Thank you for your participation.

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Hawkeyeop 55 55 10 0
2 DSeid 54 54 9 1
2 Jas09 54 54 9 1
2 JKellyMap 54 54 9 1
2 Railer13 54 54 9 1
6 BobLibDem 51 51 8 2
6 SlipperyPete 51 51 9 1
8 Karen_Lingel 49 49 8 2
8 Kolak_of_Twilo 49 49 8 2
10 flurb 46 46 7 3
11 Lance_Turbo 44 44 6 4
12 smitty300 40 40 5 5
13 racer72 24 24 6 4

Thanks. Glad my strategy of trust the goals with a Democratic tie-breaker worked out. Would have been nice to have been wrong on Wisconsin, but certainly not a bad outcome.

All Hail the Mighty Psychic Hawkeyeop! Dude, you nailed it!

And thanks to Lance Turbo for running the contest. It was a lovely diversion (no matter what Pit Thread Guy thinks…)

I echo Karen_Lingel’s sentiments. (The pit guy was just confused about “fun and games” vs. “game theory”).

The high accuracy of most of our collective choices is, in part, a testament to the quite accurate polling in 2022 (and of models based mainly on aggregate polling).

And here I thought it was because we is all real smart.

My picks did terribly and I couldn’t be happier about it.

I agree.

I only beat the guy who picked all D and the guy who picked all R except CO, and I am quite pleased with that outcome.

So close! Wisconsin was my only miss! Thanks, Lance that was fun.

As a tied for second place contestant… being smart enough to open up 538’s page and then too lazy to keep updating as polling moved slightly more south is hopefully not my intellectual pinnacle. But I’ll take it! Yea for losing!

Yup, very happy to end up tied for 8th place.

Thanks for doing all the heavy lifting with this @Lance_Turbo !

You’re welcome all.

See you in a couple years.