I’ll be posting leaderboard updates to this thread as states are called. We almost certainly won’t get all the results tonight, but things should start to take shape as the evening progresses.
Current Leaderboard
Name
Month
Score
Max
Euphonious_Polemic
October
0
120
Red_Wiggler
October
0
120
Buck_Godot
October
0
120
El_Kabong
October
0
120
furt
October
0
120
Mahaloth
October
0
120
iiandyiiii
October
0
120
JKellyMap
October
0
120
Kolak_of_Twilo
October
0
120
Lance_Turbo
October
0
120
BobLibDem
September
0
120
Lance_Turbo
September
0
120
Kolak_of_Twilo
August
0
120
JKellyMap
August
0
120
BobLibDem
August
0
120
eschrodinger
August
0
120
iiandyiiii
August
0
120
Lance_Turbo
August
0
120
Kolak_of_Twilo
July
0
120
JKellyMap
July
0
120
Lance_Turbo
July
0
120
Kolak_of_Twilo
June
0
120
Munch
June
0
120
BobLibDem
June
0
120
TroutMan
June
0
120
Dr.Winston_OBoogie
June
0
120
JKellyMap
June
0
120
Lance_Turbo
June
0
120
FlikTheBlue
May
0
120
Fretful_Porpentine
May
0
120
BobLibDem
May
0
120
JKellyMap
May
0
120
septimus
May
0
120
Lance_Turbo
May
0
120
There’s also a Google Sheet of all the entries and the leaderboard and such:
I was right about Florida — NEVER trust that state to do the right thing! — and also North Carolina (close, but a Trump win), and Arizona (close, but a Biden win), and of course Wisconsin and Michigan (though I never expected either to be so close). And Iowa.
And, I was right about Georgia! (Assuming Biden wins there. Even if he doesn’t, I was right about a genuine surge there in Biden support, well beyond the national average shift).
My one serious error was with Ohio. I thought Biden would squeak by there. Biden is just so Ohio-ish, and he helped save part of their economy (parts for autos) in 2009. But I was wrong. It will be interesting to see why, when we get to analyze the data over coming weeks.
Ha! I started with FiveThirtyEight.com’s “snake graph,” then looked for signs of growing enthusiasm (and found it in Georgia). I live in Wisconsin, and couldn’t bear the thought of it going for Trump again. North Carolina still just feels a bit too “southern,” and I didn’t see signs of enthusiasm there. Arizona, on the other hand, seemed “maverick” enough, steadily Bidenish enough, and demographically interesting enough to keep in Biden’s camp.
As for Florida, I was biased by the 2000 fiasco. Even since, I’ve trusted that stupid state as far as I can throw it. (I love the Captiva-Sanibel coast…and Miami/Miami Beach is funkier than I’d thought…and the whole state fascinates me…the Keys are incredible…but I’m sorry, the voting public just perennially disappoints.)
No change in the results yet, but I have added Hits and Misses columns to the leaderboard.
It looks like @JKellyMap is going to win. Georgia is going to be my only miss on a couple entries (one of which is from May!) and I’m OK with that. I love a blue Georgia.
More details and analysis to follow when the states are finally called.
NBC has finally called every EV awarding entity. I’m sure AP, CNN, etc will follow shortly with no surprises.
Final results…
Name
Month
Score
Hits
Misses
JKellyMap
October
118
14
1
Lance_Turbo
October
115
13
2
Lance_Turbo
September
113
14
1
JKellyMap
August
113
13
2
Lance_Turbo
May
113
14
1
JKellyMap
July
112
13
2
septimus
May
111
13
2
Buck_Godot
October
110
12
3
Lance_Turbo
June
110
12
3
Lance_Turbo
August
108
13
2
Lance_Turbo
July
108
12
3
JKellyMap
May
108
13
2
Mahaloth
October
107
11
4
TroutMan
June
106
11
4
El_Kabong
October
105
12
3
Red_Wiggler
October
104
12
3
JKellyMap
June
104
13
2
Munch
June
102
11
4
eschrodinger
August
101
13
2
BobLibDem
May
101
10
5
Kolak_of_Twilo
October
99
12
3
BobLibDem
September
98
10
5
iiandyiiii
August
97
11
4
iiandyiiii
October
95
10
5
BobLibDem
June
95
9
6
BobLibDem
August
93
9
6
Fretful_Porpentine
May
93
10
5
Kolak_of_Twilo
June
91
11
4
Euphonious_Polemic
October
90
12
3
furt
October
89
9
6
Kolak_of_Twilo
July
89
10
5
FlikTheBlue
May
89
12
3
Kolak_of_Twilo
August
87
11
4
Dr.Winston_OBoogie
June
87
10
5
@JKellyMap is the overall winner and won three of the six monthly contests (having only entered five). I also won three of the months and finished second in the three months that JKellyMap won. Ten of the top 12 entries overall, including all of the top six, were either JKellyMap or myself.
I will be updating each of the monthly threads with the results for that month.
I’m somewhat amazed that my May entry tied for 3rd overall and correctly picked the lean of 14 of 15 states. That entry, and all of mine, was very straightforwardly derived from PredictIt.
Thanks for setting it up, keeping it going, and doing the calculating. It was a useful exercise to ponder this very important process as it enfolded.