Confidence Pool Results Thread

I’ll be posting leaderboard updates to this thread as states are called. We almost certainly won’t get all the results tonight, but things should start to take shape as the evening progresses.

Current Leaderboard

Name Month Score Max
Euphonious_Polemic October 0 120
Red_Wiggler October 0 120
Buck_Godot October 0 120
El_Kabong October 0 120
furt October 0 120
Mahaloth October 0 120
iiandyiiii October 0 120
JKellyMap October 0 120
Kolak_of_Twilo October 0 120
Lance_Turbo October 0 120
BobLibDem September 0 120
Lance_Turbo September 0 120
Kolak_of_Twilo August 0 120
JKellyMap August 0 120
BobLibDem August 0 120
eschrodinger August 0 120
iiandyiiii August 0 120
Lance_Turbo August 0 120
Kolak_of_Twilo July 0 120
JKellyMap July 0 120
Lance_Turbo July 0 120
Kolak_of_Twilo June 0 120
Munch June 0 120
BobLibDem June 0 120
TroutMan June 0 120
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 0 120
JKellyMap June 0 120
Lance_Turbo June 0 120
FlikTheBlue May 0 120
Fretful_Porpentine May 0 120
BobLibDem May 0 120
JKellyMap May 0 120
septimus May 0 120
Lance_Turbo May 0 120

There’s also a Google Sheet of all the entries and the leaderboard and such:

We finally have a called swing state race. NH -> D

Literally everyone picked this correctly, but @Red_Wiggler, @Kolak_of_Twilo @Dr.Winston_OBoogie, and @Fretful_Porpentine take the lead.

Name Month Score Max
Red_Wiggler October 15 120
Kolak_of_Twilo August 15 120
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 15 120
Fretful_Porpentine May 15 120
Buck_Godot October 14 120
El_Kabong October 14 120
JKellyMap October 14 120
Lance_Turbo October 14 120
Munch June 14 120
Kolak_of_Twilo October 13 120
BobLibDem August 13 120
eschrodinger August 13 120
iiandyiiii August 13 120
Kolak_of_Twilo July 13 120
JKellyMap July 13 120
Lance_Turbo July 13 120
Lance_Turbo June 13 120
iiandyiiii October 12 120
Lance_Turbo September 12 120
JKellyMap August 12 120
JKellyMap June 12 120
BobLibDem September 11 120
Lance_Turbo August 10 120
Kolak_of_Twilo June 10 120
BobLibDem June 10 120
TroutMan June 10 120
BobLibDem May 10 120
JKellyMap May 10 120
septimus May 10 120
Lance_Turbo May 10 120
FlikTheBlue May 8 120
furt October 7 120
Mahaloth October 6 120
Euphonious_Polemic October 4 120

Florida called.

@furt, @Kolak_of_Twilo, and me in the lead.

Name Month Score Max
Kolak_of_Twilo June 22 120
furt October 19 120
Lance_Turbo October 19 120
JKellyMap October 18 120
Munch June 18 120
FlikTheBlue May 18 120
Red_Wiggler October 16 120
Kolak_of_Twilo August 16 120
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 16 120
septimus May 16 120
Lance_Turbo September 15 120
Fretful_Porpentine May 15 119
Buck_Godot October 14 117
El_Kabong October 14 118
Kolak_of_Twilo October 14 120
JKellyMap August 14 120
BobLibDem August 13 113
eschrodinger August 13 113
iiandyiiii August 13 111
Kolak_of_Twilo July 13 117
JKellyMap July 13 119
Lance_Turbo July 13 113
Lance_Turbo June 13 115
JKellyMap May 13 120
iiandyiiii October 12 115
JKellyMap June 12 117
BobLibDem September 11 117
Lance_Turbo May 11 120
Lance_Turbo August 10 119
BobLibDem June 10 115
TroutMan June 10 118
BobLibDem May 10 117
Mahaloth October 8 120
Euphonious_Polemic October 4 111

Good morning.

Name Month Score Max
JKellyMap July 69 119
Lance_Turbo October 67 120
JKellyMap August 67 120
septimus May 67 120
Lance_Turbo September 63 120
Lance_Turbo May 63 120
FlikTheBlue May 62 107
Kolak_of_Twilo June 61 112
TroutMan June 60 115
JKellyMap June 60 117
JKellyMap May 60 120
furt October 58 115
Euphonious_Polemic October 57 111
Lance_Turbo August 57 119
Fretful_Porpentine May 57 112
BobLibDem May 57 116
Buck_Godot October 55 117
JKellyMap October 55 118
Lance_Turbo July 51 113
Munch June 51 120
Red_Wiggler October 49 115
Lance_Turbo June 48 115
Kolak_of_Twilo August 46 112
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 46 108
Kolak_of_Twilo October 45 112
BobLibDem September 45 115
eschrodinger August 43 113
El_Kabong October 42 115
BobLibDem June 41 108
Kolak_of_Twilo July 39 108
Mahaloth October 37 112
iiandyiiii October 37 109
BobLibDem August 36 110
iiandyiiii August 36 106

Here’s what I have for called races right now per CNN. They just called Wisconsin for Biden.

Race Result
Arizona N/A
Florida R
Georgia N/A
Iowa R
Maine D
Maine CD-02 N/A
Michigan N/A
Minnesota D
Nebraska CD-02 D
New Hampshire D
North Carolina N/A
Ohio R
Pennsylvania N/A
Texas R
Wisconsin D

Here’s the leaderboard.

Name Month Score Max
Lance_Turbo October 93 120
Lance_Turbo September 87 120
JKellyMap July 87 119
JKellyMap August 84 120
Buck_Godot October 82 117
septimus May 82 119
Lance_Turbo May 81 120
TroutMan June 80 115
JKellyMap October 78 118
Munch June 77 120
JKellyMap June 76 117
JKellyMap May 76 120
Lance_Turbo August 75 119
Lance_Turbo July 75 113
Kolak_of_Twilo June 75 112
Red_Wiggler October 73 115
BobLibDem May 73 116
Lance_Turbo June 72 115
FlikTheBlue May 71 104
Fretful_Porpentine May 70 107
furt October 69 113
BobLibDem September 68 115
eschrodinger August 67 113
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 67 108
Kolak_of_Twilo October 66 112
Kolak_of_Twilo August 66 112
Mahaloth October 64 112
Euphonious_Polemic October 62 111
El_Kabong October 62 115
iiandyiiii October 62 109
iiandyiiii August 61 106
BobLibDem June 60 108
BobLibDem August 58 110
Kolak_of_Twilo July 58 108

Update: CNN calls Michigan for Biden.

Name Month Score Max
Lance_Turbo October 104 120
septimus May 102 119
Lance_Turbo May 101 120
Buck_Godot October 99 117
JKellyMap October 99 118
Lance_Turbo September 98 120
TroutMan June 96 115
Lance_Turbo August 95 119
JKellyMap July 95 119
JKellyMap August 94 119
Lance_Turbo July 92 113
Lance_Turbo June 92 115
Munch June 90 112
Mahaloth October 87 112
eschrodinger August 87 113
JKellyMap June 87 117
JKellyMap May 86 120
Red_Wiggler October 85 111
BobLibDem May 85 110
Kolak_of_Twilo October 84 112
Kolak_of_Twilo June 84 105
BobLibDem September 83 111
El_Kabong October 82 115
Kolak_of_Twilo August 78 99
Fretful_Porpentine May 78 104
furt October 77 108
FlikTheBlue May 77 104
iiandyiiii August 76 103
iiandyiiii October 75 101
BobLibDem June 74 101
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 74 105
BobLibDem August 73 105
Kolak_of_Twilo July 72 101
Euphonious_Polemic October 68 98

This eliminates some entries:

@Kolak_of_Twilo, August
@iiandyiiii, August
@iiandyiiii, October
@BobLibDem, June
@Kolak_of_Twilo, July
@Euphonious_Polemic, October

I was right about Florida — NEVER trust that state to do the right thing! — and also North Carolina (close, but a Trump win), and Arizona (close, but a Biden win), and of course Wisconsin and Michigan (though I never expected either to be so close). And Iowa.

And, I was right about Georgia! (Assuming Biden wins there. Even if he doesn’t, I was right about a genuine surge there in Biden support, well beyond the national average shift).

My one serious error was with Ohio. I thought Biden would squeak by there. Biden is just so Ohio-ish, and he helped save part of their economy (parts for autos) in 2009. But I was wrong. It will be interesting to see why, when we get to analyze the data over coming weeks.

@JKellyMap, do you have any methodology you could expand on? What were your main sources of data?

Ha! I started with FiveThirtyEight.com’s “snake graph,” then looked for signs of growing enthusiasm (and found it in Georgia). I live in Wisconsin, and couldn’t bear the thought of it going for Trump again. North Carolina still just feels a bit too “southern,” and I didn’t see signs of enthusiasm there. Arizona, on the other hand, seemed “maverick” enough, steadily Bidenish enough, and demographically interesting enough to keep in Biden’s camp.

As for Florida, I was biased by the 2000 fiasco. Even since, I’ve trusted that stupid state as far as I can throw it. (I love the Captiva-Sanibel coast…and Miami/Miami Beach is funkier than I’d thought…and the whole state fascinates me…the Keys are incredible…but I’m sorry, the voting public just perennially disappoints.)

No change in the results yet, but I have added Hits and Misses columns to the leaderboard.

It looks like @JKellyMap is going to win. Georgia is going to be my only miss on a couple entries (one of which is from May!) and I’m OK with that. I love a blue Georgia.

More details and analysis to follow when the states are finally called.

Name Month Score Max Hits Misses
Lance_Turbo October 104 120 11 0
septimus May 102 119 10 1
Lance_Turbo May 101 120 11 0
Buck_Godot October 99 117 10 1
JKellyMap October 99 118 10 1
Lance_Turbo September 98 120 11 0
TroutMan June 96 115 9 2
Lance_Turbo August 95 119 10 1
JKellyMap July 95 119 10 1
JKellyMap August 94 119 10 1
Lance_Turbo July 92 113 10 1
Lance_Turbo June 92 115 10 1
Munch June 90 112 10 1
Mahaloth October 87 112 9 2
eschrodinger August 87 113 10 1
JKellyMap June 87 117 10 1
JKellyMap May 86 120 11 0
Red_Wiggler October 85 111 9 2
BobLibDem May 85 110 8 3
Kolak_of_Twilo October 84 112 10 1
Kolak_of_Twilo June 84 105 9 2
BobLibDem September 83 111 8 3
El_Kabong October 82 115 9 2
Kolak_of_Twilo August 78 99 9 2
Fretful_Porpentine May 78 104 7 4
furt October 77 108 7 4
FlikTheBlue May 77 104 9 2
iiandyiiii August 76 103 8 3
iiandyiiii October 75 101 7 4
BobLibDem June 74 101 7 4
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 74 105 8 3
BobLibDem August 73 105 7 4
Kolak_of_Twilo July 72 101 8 3
Euphonious_Polemic October 68 98 9 2

Actual update with the PA call…

Name Month Score Max Hits Misses
Lance_Turbo October 111 120 12 0
JKellyMap October 109 118 11 1
Buck_Godot October 108 117 11 1
Lance_Turbo May 107 120 12 0
Lance_Turbo September 106 120 12 0
septimus May 105 119 11 1
JKellyMap July 104 119 11 1
Lance_Turbo June 103 115 11 1
JKellyMap August 102 119 11 1
Lance_Turbo July 102 113 11 1
Munch June 102 112 11 1
Lance_Turbo August 101 119 11 1
Mahaloth October 100 112 10 2
TroutMan June 100 115 10 2
BobLibDem May 99 110 9 3
JKellyMap May 99 120 12 0
eschrodinger August 98 113 11 1
Kolak_of_Twilo October 95 112 11 1
Red_Wiggler October 94 111 10 2
JKellyMap June 94 117 11 1
BobLibDem September 92 111 9 3
El_Kabong October 91 115 10 2
Kolak_of_Twilo June 89 105 10 2
Fretful_Porpentine May 87 104 8 4
iiandyiiii August 86 103 9 3
BobLibDem June 86 101 8 4
iiandyiiii October 85 101 8 4
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 85 105 9 3
BobLibDem August 84 105 8 4
Kolak_of_Twilo July 84 101 9 3
Kolak_of_Twilo August 83 99 10 2
FlikTheBlue May 83 104 10 2
furt October 80 108 8 4
Euphonious_Polemic October 75 98 10 2

Seven more eliminations.

@BobLibDem, May
@Kolak_of_Twilo, June
@Fretful_Porpentine, May
@Dr.Winston_OBoogie, June
@BobLibDem, August
@FlikTheBlue, May
@furt, October

Google sheet:

NBC has finally called every EV awarding entity. I’m sure AP, CNN, etc will follow shortly with no surprises.

Final results…

Name Month Score Hits Misses
JKellyMap October 118 14 1
Lance_Turbo October 115 13 2
Lance_Turbo September 113 14 1
JKellyMap August 113 13 2
Lance_Turbo May 113 14 1
JKellyMap July 112 13 2
septimus May 111 13 2
Buck_Godot October 110 12 3
Lance_Turbo June 110 12 3
Lance_Turbo August 108 13 2
Lance_Turbo July 108 12 3
JKellyMap May 108 13 2
Mahaloth October 107 11 4
TroutMan June 106 11 4
El_Kabong October 105 12 3
Red_Wiggler October 104 12 3
JKellyMap June 104 13 2
Munch June 102 11 4
eschrodinger August 101 13 2
BobLibDem May 101 10 5
Kolak_of_Twilo October 99 12 3
BobLibDem September 98 10 5
iiandyiiii August 97 11 4
iiandyiiii October 95 10 5
BobLibDem June 95 9 6
BobLibDem August 93 9 6
Fretful_Porpentine May 93 10 5
Kolak_of_Twilo June 91 11 4
Euphonious_Polemic October 90 12 3
furt October 89 9 6
Kolak_of_Twilo July 89 10 5
FlikTheBlue May 89 12 3
Kolak_of_Twilo August 87 11 4
Dr.Winston_OBoogie June 87 10 5

@JKellyMap is the overall winner and won three of the six monthly contests (having only entered five). I also won three of the months and finished second in the three months that JKellyMap won. Ten of the top 12 entries overall, including all of the top six, were either JKellyMap or myself.

I will be updating each of the monthly threads with the results for that month.

Thanks to all who participated.

:slight_smile: Thanks for setting it up, keeping it going, and doing the calculating. It was a useful exercise to ponder this very important process as it enfolded.

You’re welcome. I really enjoyed doing it.

I’m somewhat amazed that my May entry tied for 3rd overall and correctly picked the lean of 14 of 15 states. That entry, and all of mine, was very straightforwardly derived from PredictIt.