September 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool

Politics & Elections
1

Consider these 15 swing states/districts:

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
Maine CD-02
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska CD-02
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin

For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst.

My entry (subject to change, see below) looks like this…

Race Party Confidence
Arizona D 5
Florida R 2
Georgia R 9
Iowa R 8
Maine D 15
Maine CD-02 R 3
Michigan D 12
Minnesota D 14
Nebraska CD-02 D 6
New Hampshire D 11
North Carolina R 1
Ohio R 10
Pennsylvania D 4
Texas R 13
Wisconsin D 7

Entries will be accepted until September 30, 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread. Entires can be updated by posting again before the deadline. Most recent pre-deadline post will be the official entry.

Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition.

May thread
June thread
July thread
August thread

2

Arizona D 7
Florida D 2
Georgia R 1
Iowa R 7
Maine D 9
Maine CD-02 D 1
Michigan D 7
Minnesota D 10
Nebraska CD-02 D 1
New Hampshire D 10
North Carolina D 1
Ohio R 5
Pennsylvania D 9
Texas R 9
Wisconsin D 8

3

That does not appear to be a valid entry.

4
Race Party Confidence
Arizona D 6
Florida D 3
Georgia R 8
Iowa D 2
Maine D 10
Maine CD-02 D 4
Michigan D 15
Minnesota D 14
Nebraska CD-02 D 7
New Hampshire D 11
North Carolina D 5
Ohio R 1
Pennsylvania D 9
Texas R 12
Wisconsin D 13
5

There’s still time to enter this month.

@AHunter3, you may still correct your invalid entry if you wish.

6

12 hours to get an entry in or update an existing entry.

Here’s my final September entry.

Race Party Confidence
Arizona D 5
Florida R 3
Georgia R 7
Iowa R 6
Maine D 15
Maine CD-02 R 1
Michigan D 10
Minnesota D 13
Nebraska CD-02 D 11
New Hampshire D 12
North Carolina R 2
Ohio R 4
Pennsylvania D 8
Texas R 14
Wisconsin D 9

@AHunter3, how about it?

7

2 hours. Anybody?

8

Hilarious - missed this, by, oh, six minutes.

9

I missed it, too — sorry!
According to 538’s mainly-poll-driven model, the four states that are right around 50-50 chances for Biden or Trump are Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. Though I listed these in order from “slightly leaning Trump” to “slightly meaning Biden,” I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Biden WON Georgia and Ohio, but LOST North Carolina and Florida.
I just sense a bit of Biden energy and momentum in Ohio and Georgia that seems to be lacking in North Carolina and Florida.
Indeed, North Carolina is maybe the only state whose 538 tracker has slipped a little toward Trump in recent days. (This explains why the full model moved ever so slightly, from 78% Biden/21% Trump/1% tie, to 78% Biden/22% Trump).
And as for Florida, it’s just a perennial quagmire of disappointment.
I still think Biden needs to campaign hard in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and not entirely neglect Wisconsin, to ensure that two of these three (at least) vote in his favor, thus putting him over the top.

10

(Arizona, especially, has been a bit shaky for Biden in recent weeks).

11

Results of September contest.

Name Month Score Hits Misses
Lance_Turbo September 113 14 1
BobLibDem September 98 10 5