Consider these 15 swing states/districts:
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
Maine CD-02
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska CD-02
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin
For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst.
My entry (subject to change, see below) looks like this…
| Race |
Party |
Confidence |
| Arizona |
D |
3 |
| Florida |
D |
2 |
| Georgia |
R |
6 |
| Iowa |
R |
10 |
| Maine |
D |
15 |
| Maine CD-02 |
R |
9 |
| Michigan |
D |
11 |
| Minnesota |
D |
12 |
| Nebraska CD-02 |
D |
4 |
| New Hampshire |
D |
14 |
| North Carolina |
R |
1 |
| Ohio |
R |
5 |
| Pennsylvania |
D |
8 |
| Texas |
R |
13 |
| Wisconsin |
D |
7 |
Entries will be accepted until August 31, 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread. Entires can be updated by posting again before the deadline. Most recent pre-deadline post will be the official entry.
Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition.
May thread
June thread
July thread
My entry (very optimistic, on purpose):
| Race |
Party |
Confidence |
| Arizona |
D |
7 |
| Florida |
D |
9 |
| Georgia |
D |
4 |
| Iowa |
R |
2 |
| Maine |
D |
14 |
| Maine CD-02 |
D |
3 |
| Michigan |
D |
15 |
| Minnesota |
D |
12 |
| Nebraska CD-02 |
D |
8 |
| New Hampshire |
D |
13 |
| North Carolina |
D |
6 |
| Ohio |
D |
5 |
| Pennsylvania |
D |
10 |
| Texas |
R |
1 |
| Wisconsin |
D |
11 |
| Race |
Party |
Confidence |
| Arizona |
D |
2 |
| Florida |
D |
7 |
| Georgia |
R |
12 |
| Iowa |
R |
8 |
| Maine |
D |
15 |
| Maine CD-02 |
R |
6 |
| Michigan |
D |
14 |
| Minnesota |
D |
10 |
| Nebraska CD-02 |
D |
3 |
| New Hampshire |
D |
13 |
| North Carolina |
R |
1 |
| Ohio |
R |
4 |
| Pennsylvania |
D |
11 |
| Texas |
R |
5 |
| Wisconsin |
D |
9 |
Partially based on my prediction, but also some betting strategy.
I’ll do it soon. I’d like to point out that I was bearish on North Carolina (from a Dem-hopeful perspective) going all the way back to May. I knew the polls there would revert to the mean (I.e., slightly pro-Trump), and indeed they have.
Here are all the entries from previous months in one place if anyone is curious.
| Name |
Lance_Turbo |
septimus |
JKellyMap |
BobLibDem |
Fretful_Porpentine |
FlikTheBlue |
Lance_Turbo |
JKellyMap |
Dr.Winston_OBoogie |
TroutMan |
BobLibDem |
Munch |
ShadowFacts |
Kolak_of_Twilo |
Lance_Turbo |
JKellyMap |
Kolak_of_Twilo |
| Month |
May |
May |
May |
May |
May |
May |
June |
June |
June |
June |
June |
June |
June |
June |
July |
July |
July |
| Arizona |
D 4 |
D 2 |
R 1 |
D 2 |
D 2 |
D 2 |
D 7 |
D 2 |
D 2 |
D 6 |
D 9 |
R 2 |
D 5 |
D 2 |
D 6 |
D 5 |
D 5 |
| Florida |
R 1 |
R 6 |
R 3 |
D 3 |
D 1 |
R 10 |
D 5 |
D 3 |
R 1 |
D 2 |
D 5 |
R 4 |
R 3 |
R 12 |
D 7 |
D 1 |
D 3 |
| Georgia |
R 7 |
R 8 |
R 11 |
R 4 |
R 11 |
R 15 |
R 1 |
R 13 |
R 13 |
R 8 |
R 2 |
R 3 |
R 14 |
R 13 |
R 1 |
R 7 |
R 10 |
| Iowa |
R 11 |
R 11 |
R 12 |
R 8 |
R 6 |
R 11 |
R 3 |
R 11 |
D 8 |
R 12 |
R 3 |
R 7 |
R 8 |
R 6 |
R 3 |
R 10 |
R 6 |
| Maine |
D 15 |
D 15 |
D 14 |
D 7 |
D 13 |
D 9 |
D 15 |
D 15 |
D 12 |
D 15 |
D 8 |
D 11 |
D 12 |
D 11 |
D 15 |
D 14 |
D 11 |
| Maine CD-02 |
R 12 |
R 13 |
R 6 |
D 6 |
D 3 |
R 1 |
R 8 |
R 5 |
D 3 |
R 7 |
D 7 |
D 8 |
D 6 |
D 7 |
R 5 |
R 2 |
D 7 |
| Michigan |
D 8 |
D 7 |
D 4 |
D 12 |
D 8 |
D 5 |
D 12 |
D 6 |
D 7 |
D 9 |
D 14 |
D 13 |
D 7 |
D 9 |
D 12 |
D 6 |
D 14 |
| Minnesota |
D 14 |
D 12 |
D 7 |
D 15 |
D 12 |
D 7 |
D 14 |
D 9 |
D 14 |
D 11 |
D 15 |
D 6 |
D 13 |
D 14 |
D 14 |
D 12 |
D 15 |
| Nebraska CD-02 |
D 5 |
D 5 |
D 5 |
R 1 |
R 7 |
R 13 |
D 10 |
D 4 |
R 4 |
R 3 |
R 6 |
D 1 |
R 10 |
R 8 |
D 11 |
D 8 |
R 9 |
| New Hampshire |
D 10 |
D 10 |
D 10 |
D 10 |
D 15 |
D 8 |
D 13 |
D 12 |
D 15 |
D 10 |
D 10 |
D 14 |
D 1 |
D 10 |
D 13 |
D 13 |
D 13 |
| North Carolina |
R 2 |
R 4 |
R 9 |
D 5 |
R 4 |
R 4 |
D 4 |
R 8 |
D 5 |
D 1 |
D 4 |
D 5 |
R 9 |
D 1 |
D 4 |
R 3 |
D 2 |
| Ohio |
R 9 |
R 9 |
R 8 |
R 11 |
R 10 |
R 12 |
R 2 |
R 10 |
R 6 |
R 14 |
D 1 |
R 10 |
R 2 |
R 4 |
R 2 |
R 11 |
R 1 |
| Pennsylvania |
D 6 |
D 3 |
D 13 |
D 14 |
D 9 |
D 6 |
D 11 |
D 7 |
D 11 |
D 4 |
D 12 |
D 12 |
D 4 |
D 5 |
D 10 |
D 9 |
D 12 |
| Texas |
R 13 |
R 14 |
R 15 |
R 13 |
R 14 |
R 14 |
R 6 |
R 14 |
R 10 |
R 13 |
R 13 |
R 9 |
R 15 |
R 15 |
R 8 |
R 15 |
R 4 |
| Wisconsin |
D 3 |
R 1 |
D 2 |
D 9 |
R 5 |
R 3 |
D 9 |
D 1 |
D 9 |
D 5 |
D 11 |
D 15 |
D 6 |
D 3 |
D 9 |
D 4 |
D 8 |
Here it is:
AZ D 4
FL R 2
GA R 6
IA R 13
ME D 14
ME-02 D 1
MI D 10
MN D 5
NE-02 D 9
NH D 12
NC R 7
OH R 11
PA D 8
TX R 15
WI D 3
Arizona: R 2
Florida: R 1
Georgia: R 10
Iowa: R 11
Maine: D 14
Maine CD-02: D 13
Michigan: D 12
Minnesota: D 3
Nebraska CD-02: R 8
New Hampshire: D 15
North Carolina: R 4
Ohio: R 9
Pennsylvania: D 5
Texas: R 7
Wisconsin: D 6
Thanks for the entry Kolak_of_Twilo. About twelve hours remains to get one in.
Here’s my final update…
| Race |
Party |
Confidence |
| Arizona |
D |
2 |
| Florida |
D |
1 |
| Georgia |
R |
11 |
| Iowa |
R |
13 |
| Maine |
D |
15 |
| Maine CD-02 |
R |
12 |
| Michigan |
D |
8 |
| Minnesota |
D |
7 |
| Nebraska CD-02 |
D |
4 |
| New Hampshire |
D |
10 |
| North Carolina |
R |
5 |
| Ohio |
R |
9 |
| Pennsylvania |
D |
6 |
| Texas |
R |
14 |
| Wisconsin |
D |
3 |
Excellent 538 article on Minnesota’s past, present, and future as a swing state.
Results of August contest.
| Name |
Month |
Score |
Hits |
Misses |
| JKellyMap |
August |
113 |
13 |
2 |
| Lance_Turbo |
August |
108 |
13 |
2 |
| eschrodinger |
August |
101 |
13 |
2 |
| iiandyiiii |
August |
97 |
11 |
4 |
| BobLibDem |
August |
93 |
9 |
6 |
| Kolak_of_Twilo |
August |
87 |
11 |
4 |