June 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool

Politics & Elections
1

Consider these 15 swing states/districts:

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
Maine CD-02
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska CD-02
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin

For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst.

My entry (subject to change, see below) looks like this…

State	Party	Confidence
Arizona	D	5
Florida	D	3
Georgia	R	2
Iowa	R	6
Maine	D	15
Maine CD-02	R	8
Michigan	D	12
Minnesota	D	14
Nebraska CD-02	D	7
New Hampshire	D	13
North Carolina	D	1
Ohio	R	4
Pennsylvania	D	10
Texas	R	11
Wisconsin	D	9

Entries will be accepted until June 30, 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread. Entires can be updated by posting again before the deadline. Most recent pre-deadline post will be the official entry.

Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition.

See May thread for additional information.

2

Here you go: (and, hey, Discourse — my body was perfectly clear even without this here sentence!! Well, maybe I could scrub my armpits a bit more…)

AZ D 2
FL D 3
GA R 13
IA R 11
ME D 15
ME-02 R 5
MI D 6
MN D 9
NE-02 D 4
NH D 12
NC R 8
OH R 10
PA D 7
TX R 14
WI D 1

3

If I may ask a silly question,…

What’s with the “CD-02”, and why 2 MEs? (or should that question be “why only 1 NE?”)

4

Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the state winner and one each to winner of each congressional district.

ME is Maine statewide. ME-02 is Maine’s 2nd congressional district.

5

And in case it’s not obvious, there’s only one NE because statewide Nebraska isn’t a swing vote. It will be R.

6

Arizona - D - 2
Florida - R - 1
Georgia - R - 13
Iowa - D - 8
Maine - D - 12
Maine CD-02 - D - 3
Michigan - D - 7
Minnesota - D - 14
Nebraska CD-02 - R - 4
New Hampshire - D - 15
North Carolina - D - 5
Ohio - R - 6
Pennsylvania - D - 11
Texas - R - 10
Wisconsin - D - 9

Not sure what this works out to in electoral college, but it’s a gut feeling. I’m probably exactly what you’re looking for in your study - (generally) politically aware, but not a true true political junkie. This is nothing more than a feeling, nothing scientific to go by. All I want is a return to sanity.

7
Arizona D 6
Florida D 2
Georgia R 8
Iowa R 12
Maine D 15
Maine CD-02 R 7
Michigan D 9
Minnesota D 11
Nebraska CD-02 R 3
New Hampshire D 10
North Carolina D 1
Ohio R 14
Pennsylvania D 4
Texas R 13
Wisconsin D 5
8

Beautifully formatted. I think I see how you did that. I failed in my attempt in the OP.

9

:grinning: It was unintentional. I had it in a spreadsheet, and when I copy/pasted here it just worked out. I’ll probably never get so lucky again.

10

Looks like it did some formatting for you. Cool.

11

Arizona D 9
Florida D 5
Georgia R 2
Iowa R 3
Maine D 8
Maine CD-02 D 7
Michigan D 14
Minnesota D 15
Nebraska CD-02 R 6
New Hampshire D 10
North Carolina D 4
Ohio D 1
Pennsylvania D12
Texas R 13
Wisconsin D11

12 
Arizona     	R	2
Florida 	    R	4
Georgia     	R	3
Iowa    	    R	7
Maine 	        D	11
Maine CD-02 	D	8
Michigan    	D	13
Minnesota	    D	6
Nebraska CD-02	D	1
New Hampshire	D	14
North Carolina	D	5
Ohio        	R	10
Pennsylvania 	D	12
Texas	        R	9
Wisconsin    	D	15
13

Wisconsin D 15? Interesting.

14

Munch, speaking as a frazzled Wisconsin resident, if you know something I don’t … please tell me now, to save me about 20 sleepless nights this October!

15

Arizona: D 5
Florida: R 3
Georgia: R 14
Iowa: R 8
Maine: D 12
Maine CD-02: D 6
Michigan: D 7
Minnesota: D 13
Nebraska CD-02: R 10
New Hampshire: D 1
North Carolina: R 9
Ohio: R 2
Pennsylvania: D 4
Texas: R 15
Wisconsin: D 6

16

Arizona: D 2
Florida: R 12
Georgia: R 13
Iowa: R 6
Maine: D 11
Maine CD-02: D 7
Michigan: D 9
Minnesota: D 14
Nebraska CD-02: R 8
New Hampshire: D 10
North Carolina: D 1
Ohio: R 4
Pennsylvania: D 5
Texas: R 15
Wisconsin: D 3

17

SO good to see all those “Wisconsin Going Democrat” guesses! But, like JKelly, I’ll still have some sleepless nights, too.

18

FWIW, Amy Walter and Nate Silver both say things are looking bleak for POTUS in the Electoral College: US election 2020: The electoral map just keeps getting worse for Trump | CNN Politics

19

One week remains to get those entries in. You can do it!

20

Reminder: the deadline for to submit or update entries is Tuesday 11:59:59 PM CT.

Here’s my updated entry.

State Party Confidence
Arizona D 7
Florida D 5
Georgia R 1
Iowa R 4
Maine D 15
Maine CD-02 R 6
Michigan D 12
Minnesota D 14
Nebraska CD-02 D 9
New Hampshire D 13
North Carolina D 3
Ohio R 2
Pennsylvania D 11
Texas R 8
Wisconsin D 10