This is the 6th and final contest, but don’t worry, you can participate in this one even if you missed the others.
Consider these 15 swing states/districts:
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
Maine CD-02
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska CD-02
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin
For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst.
My entry (subject to change, see below) looks like this…
Race
Party
Confidence
Arizona
D
4
Florida
R
3
Georgia
R
5
Iowa
R
7
Maine
D
15
Maine CD-02
R
2
Michigan
D
9
Minnesota
D
13
Nebraska CD-02
D
11
New Hampshire
D
14
North Carolina
D
1
Ohio
R
10
Pennsylvania
D
6
Texas
R
12
Wisconsin
D
8
Entries will be accepted until October 31, 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread. Entires can be updated by posting again before the deadline. Most recent pre-deadline post will be the official entry.
Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition.
Not sure what happened that caused me to miss the September poll but here are my predictions for October:
Arizona: D 4
Florida: R 1
Georgia: R 10
Iowa: R 2
Maine: D 14
Maine CD-02: R 6
Michigan: D 12
Minnesota: D 15
Nebraska CD-02: R 8
New Hampshire: D 13
North Carolina: D 3
Ohio: R 9
Pennsylvania: D 11
Texas: R 5
Wisconsin: D 7
Arizona: D 5
Florida: R 4
Georgia: D 3
Iowa: R 7
Maine: D 15
Maine CD-02: R 9
Michigan: D 12
Minnesota: D 13
Nebraska CD-02: D 6
New Hampshire: D 14
North Carolina: R 1
Ohio: D 2
Pennsylvania: D 10
Texas: R 11
Wisconsin: D 8
Arizona: D 7
Florida: D 5
Georgia: D 3
Iowa: D 2
Maine: D 14
Maine CD-02: D 8
Michigan: D 13
Minnesota: D 15
Nebraska CD-02: D 9
New Hampshire: D 12
North Carolina: D 6
Ohio: D 4
Pennsylvania: D 10
Texas: R 1
Wisconsin: D 11
Arizona: D 8
Florida: D 2
Georgia: R 10
Iowa: R 1
Maine: D 13
Maine CD-02: R 5
Michigan: D 15
Minnesota: D 12
Nebraska CD-02: R 3
New Hampshire: D 14
North Carolina: R 6
Ohio: R 11
Pennsylvania: D 9
Texas: R 4
Wisconsin: D 7
I’m on a tablet so sorry for the formatting (but the truth is that I probably couldn’t do it as well as others in any event).
Arizona D8,
Florida R1
Georgia D2
Iowa D5
Maine D13
Maine CD-02 D4
Michigan D12
Minnesota D14,
Nebraska CD-02 D6
New Hampshire D15
North Carolina D7
Ohio R10
Pennsylvania D9,
Texas R3
Wisconsin D11
Biden is going to win the popular vote by 10 million. If Trump wins despite that, I suggest strongly that we revisit how we conduct presidential elections in this country.
Arizona: D 5
Florida: D 9
Georgia: D 10
Iowa: R 11
Maine: D 2
Maine CD-02: D 13
Michigan: D 6
Minnesota: D 1
Nebraska CD-02: D 12
New Hampshire: D 4
North Carolina: D 8
Ohio: R 15
Pennsylvania: D 7
Texas: R 14
Wisconsin: D 3
I was right about Florida — NEVER trust that state to do the right thing! — and also North Carolina (close, but a Trump win), and Arizona (close, but a Biden win), and of course Wisconsin and Michigan (though I never expected either to be so close). And Iowa.
And, I was right about Georgia! (Assuming Biden wins there. Even if he doesn’t, I was right about a genuine surge there in Biden support, well beyond the national average shift).
My one serious error was with Ohio. I thought Biden would squeak by there. Biden is just so Ohio-ish, and he helped save part of their economy (parts for autos) in 2009. But I was wrong. It will be interesting to see why, when we get to analyze the data over coming weeks.
