This is the 6th and final contest, but don’t worry, you can participate in this one even if you missed the others.
Consider the following senate races:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona (special)
Colorado
Georgia
Georgia (special)
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Michigan
Montana
North Carolina
The goal is for each race to assign a value, P(D), between 0 and 1 that represents the probability that a Democrat wins the seat, the value P(R ) = 1 - P(D), that represents that a Republican wins the seat is implied by P(D).
Note: there are two senate races in Georgia this year. Be sure to mark which one is the special election.
Entries will be submitted by posting in this thread. The most recent post by a user with a timestamp on or before October 31, 11:59:59 PM CDT will be that user’s entry (i.e. you can change your entry until the end of October).
After the election results are known, I will compute the Brier score for each entry. Participants will be ranked by Brier score where lowest is best.
Here’s my October prediction (PredictIt derived) which I will likely change (slightly) by the end of the month.
| Race |
P(D) |
| Alabama |
2.9% |
| Alaska |
9.9% |
| Arizona (special) |
92.2% |
| Colorado |
97.1% |
| Georgia |
29.9% |
| Georgia (special) |
40.1% |
| Iowa |
52.1% |
| Kansas |
11.2% |
| Kentucky |
0.9% |
| Maine |
88.3% |
| Michigan |
73.0% |
| Montana |
29.2% |
| North Carolina |
64.6% |
May thread
June thread
July thread
August thread
September thread
Here are all entries from previous months.
| Name |
Lance_Turbo |
septimus |
Calavera |
Oredigger77 |
Hari_Seldon |
Dr.Strangelove |
Lance_Turbo |
JKellyMap |
Hari_Seldon |
Lance_Turbo |
JKellyMap |
Lance_Turbo |
JKellyMap |
Lance_Turbo |
| Month |
May |
May |
May |
May |
May |
May |
June |
June |
June |
July |
July |
August |
August |
September |
| Alabama |
3.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
100.0% |
1% |
0.0% |
8.2% |
4.0% |
1.0% |
6.0% |
5.0% |
2.7% |
6.0% |
2.4% |
| Alaska |
7.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0% |
45.0% |
18.4% |
18.0% |
5.0% |
15.4% |
19.0% |
7.5% |
19.0% |
18.2% |
| Arizona (special) |
90.4% |
80.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
80% |
100.0% |
93.8% |
91.0% |
95.0% |
92.9% |
92.0% |
92.4% |
94.0% |
92.6% |
| Colorado |
96.4% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
90% |
100.0% |
95.5% |
85.0% |
98.0% |
96.5% |
89.0% |
95.9% |
90.0% |
95.6% |
| Georgia |
24.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
10% |
60.0% |
34.5% |
43.0% |
25.0% |
32.5% |
42.0% |
18.6% |
51.0% |
21.1% |
| Georgia (special) |
30.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
50% |
55.0% |
33.2% |
27.0% |
40.0% |
32.5% |
25.0% |
11.9% |
20.0% |
23.9% |
| Iowa |
26.6% |
20.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
30% |
50.0% |
51.2% |
50.0% |
40.0% |
52.4% |
50.0% |
35.4% |
56.0% |
51.5% |
| Kansas |
14.4% |
20.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0% |
0.0% |
18.2% |
13.0% |
25.0% |
15.5% |
15.0% |
5.4% |
18.0% |
16.8% |
| Kentucky |
9.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
100.0% |
10% |
35.0% |
8.7% |
10.0% |
20.0% |
8.6% |
11.0% |
2.8% |
10.0% |
2.1% |
| Maine |
71.4% |
57.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
80% |
95.0% |
76.8% |
88.0% |
95.0% |
81.4% |
82.0% |
75.6% |
85.0% |
84.9% |
| Michigan |
87.4% |
82.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
99% |
100.0% |
92.7% |
93.0% |
95.0% |
93.2% |
95.0% |
81.7% |
91.0% |
83.8% |
| Montana |
46.2% |
39.0% |
0.0% |
100.0% |
50% |
85.0% |
60.4% |
59.0% |
80.0% |
63.4% |
56.0% |
27.9% |
66.0% |
35.5% |
| North Carolina |
67.2% |
77.0% |
0.0% |
100.0% |
50% |
60.0% |
65.0% |
72.0% |
35.0% |
72.6% |
70.0% |
73.8% |
73.0% |
74.5% |
There’s still time to get those entries in before the deadline… Halloween… at midnight. Muhahaha.
~12 hours left to get that entry in. Code up those models. This is no time for cross validation!
My final revised entry.
| Race |
P(D) |
| Alabama |
1.3% |
| Alaska |
9.6% |
| Arizona (special) |
91.2% |
| Colorado |
98.3% |
| Georgia |
49.9% |
| Georgia (special) |
53.9% |
| Iowa |
51.8% |
| Kansas |
8.2% |
| Kentucky |
0.8% |
| Maine |
84.0% |
| Michigan |
84.6% |
| Montana |
32.2% |
| North Carolina |
67.8% |