July 2020 probabilistic senate prediction competition

Consider the following senate races:

Arizona (special)
Georgia (special)
North Carolina

The goal is for each race to assign a value, P(D), between 0 and 1 that represents the probability that a Democrat wins the seat, the value P(R ) = 1 - P(D), that represents that a Republican wins the seat is implied by P(D).

Note: there are two senate races in Georgia this year. Be sure to mark which one is the special election.

Entries will be submitted by posting in this thread. The most recent post by a user with a timestamp on or before July 31, 11:59:59 PM CT will be that user’s entry (i.e. you can change your entry until the end of June).

After the election results are known, I will compute the Brier score for each entry. Participants will be ranked by Brier score where lowest is best.

Here’s my July prediction (PredictIt derived) which I will likely change (slightly) by the end of the month.

Race P(D)
AK 15.4%
AL 6.0%
AZ* 92.9%
CO 96.5%
GA 32.5%
GA* 32.5%
IA 52.4%
KS 15.5%
KY 8.6%
ME 81.4%
MI 93.2%
MT 63.4%
NC 72.6%

May thread
June thread

For NC I say 45% D could change in October

still in second place!!!

About a week remains to enter.

Can I get any action?

Accepting entries until 11:59:59 PM CT on Friday.

I think it will end up 50/50 even when Jones loses in AL.

Here’s mine:

AK 19%
AL 5%
AZ* 92%
CO 89%
GA 42%
GA* 25%
IA 50%
KS 15%
KY 11%
ME 82%
MI 95%
MT 56%
NC 70%

Clock ticking. Less than four hours.