Consider the following senate races:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona (special)
Colorado
Georgia
Georgia (special)
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Michigan
Montana
North Carolina
The goal is for each race to assign a value, P(D), between 0 and 1 that represents the probability that a Democrat wins the seat, the value P(R ) = 1 - P(D), that represents that a Republican wins the seat is implied by P(D).
Note: there are two senate races in Georgia this year. Be sure to mark which one is the special election.
Entries will be submitted by posting in this thread. The most recent post by a user with a timestamp on or before September 30, 11:59:59 PM CDT will be that user’s entry (i.e. you can change your entry until the end of September).
After the election results are known, I will compute the Brier score for each entry. Participants will be ranked by Brier score where lowest is best.
Here’s my September prediction (PredictIt derived) which I will likely change (slightly) by the end of the month.
| Race | P(D) |
|---|---|
| Alabama | 2.8% |
| Alaska | 16.0% |
| Arizona (special) | 93.1% |
| Colorado | 94.9% |
| Georgia | 23.6% |
| Georgia (special) | 13.2% |
| Iowa | 44.4% |
| Kansas | 10.5% |
| Kentucky | 2.2% |
| Maine | 83.9% |
| Michigan | 83.3% |
| Montana | 34.2% |
| North Carolina | 70.8% |