2022 Senate Confidence Pool Contest

Politics & Elections
81

I think pollsters, for the most part, include people who already voted in their pools of people to survey, which should nullify any early voting effect.

There may be other confounding variables that I’m failing to consider.

82

People who already have voted should be weighted higher. You know they turned out.

OTOH one suspects that those who change their mind over the last two weeks and have not yet voted may be less engaged and less likely to vote.

83

So looks like it will be a while before we find out the winner (I hope it’s me, I hope it’s me). In the meantime, I have a little confession…

I’m in California, and I have my brain full of figuring out how to regulate dialysis clinics. I couldn’t be bothered to analyze the senate races of other states. Thus, all my choices were picked by random. I used random number generators from the internet, and when I saw how similar my results were to the other contestants, I figured you all had done the same, using the same internet random number generators!

I am astounded at how well I am doing in the pool. I’m also slightly amused at how much I want to win the non-prize!

84

I don’t want to win, because the only way I win is for Arizona to go Red.

And, sorry, I don’t want you to win either, because if you win, Herschel Walker is a Senator for the next six years.

85

Yeah, I only win with an R sweep of the remaining races. No thanks you.

Someone should tell that pit thread guy that people are able to separate this contest from the real world.

86

I’m willing to take 10th place to ensure that Herschel stays out of the senate.

87

No can do. @racer72 has last place locked up.

88

I’ll wait for a network to call it, but I’ve never seen Wasserman miss.

89

I hope your’e right but there seems to be a lot of questions about how the remaining Maricopa ballots will go. From batch to batch they could be anywhere from 60/40 Kelly (if they are true “early votes”) or 65/35 Masters (if there are “day of drop off early votes”). If it’s the latter, there may be just enough for Masters to come back.

I’d like to know why Wasserman is so confident.

90

Hey, if so I’m in no lower than second place! And still rooting to lose to @Hawkeyeop with the sweep of all three! (Yeah that was a strange pit position. I’d have been thrilled if @racer72’s method led to their coming in with the most points instead of assured of last place!)

91

Arizona called for Kelly.

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 DSeid 52 55 8 0
1 Jas09 52 55 8 0
3 Hawkeyeop 50 55 8 0
4 Kolak_of_Twilo 49 55 8 0
5 JKellyMap 48 55 8 0
6 Karen_Lingel 46 54 7 1
6 Railer13 46 54 7 1
6 flurb 46 53 7 1
9 BobLibDem 45 51 6 2
10 Lance_Turbo 44 52 6 2
11 SlipperyPete 40 51 7 1
11 smitty300 40 49 5 3
13 racer72 19 24 4 4
92

Two races left to call. Four possible outcomes. One is the three-way perfect tie

Georgia D, Nevada D

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Hawkeyeop 55 55 10 0
2 DSeid 54 54 9 1
2 Jas09 54 54 9 1
2 JKellyMap 54 54 9 1
2 Railer13 54 54 9 1
6 BobLibDem 51 51 8 2
6 SlipperyPete 51 51 9 1
8 Karen_Lingel 49 49 8 2
8 Kolak_of_Twilo 49 49 8 2
10 flurb 46 46 7 3
11 Lance_Turbo 44 44 6 4
12 smitty300 40 40 5 5
13 racer72 24 24 6 4

Georgia D, Nevada R

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 DSeid 55 55 10 0
1 Jas09 55 55 10 0
1 JKellyMap 55 55 10 0
4 Hawkeyeop 54 54 9 1
5 Kolak_of_Twilo 53 53 9 1
6 flurb 50 50 8 2
7 Lance_Turbo 49 49 7 3
7 Railer13 49 49 8 2
9 BobLibDem 47 47 7 3
10 Karen_Lingel 46 46 7 3
11 SlipperyPete 45 45 8 2
12 smitty300 44 44 6 4
13 racer72 23 23 5 5

Georgia R, Nevada D

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Karen_Lingel 54 54 9 1
2 DSeid 52 52 8 2
2 Jas09 52 52 8 2
4 Hawkeyeop 51 51 9 1
4 Kolak_of_Twilo 51 51 9 1
4 Railer13 51 51 8 2
7 BobLibDem 49 49 7 3
7 flurb 49 49 8 2
9 JKellyMap 48 48 8 2
10 Lance_Turbo 47 47 7 3
11 SlipperyPete 46 46 8 2
12 smitty300 45 45 6 4
13 racer72 20 20 5 5

Georgia R, Nevada R

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Kolak_of_Twilo 55 55 10 0
2 DSeid 53 53 9 1
2 flurb 53 53 9 1
2 Jas09 53 53 9 1
5 Lance_Turbo 52 52 8 2
6 Karen_Lingel 51 51 8 2
7 Hawkeyeop 50 50 8 2
8 JKellyMap 49 49 9 1
8 smitty300 49 49 7 3
10 Railer13 46 46 7 3
11 BobLibDem 45 45 6 4
12 SlipperyPete 40 40 7 3
13 racer72 19 19 4 6
93

Side bets (at the risk of inflaming Pit Thread Guy): when will this contest be finally decided? I say Dec 8, 4:53pm ET.

94

RNG again?

95

LOL, no. This time I very carefully made a prediction.

96

CCM wins reelection!

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 DSeid 52 54 8 1
1 Jas09 52 54 8 1
3 Hawkeyeop 51 55 9 0
3 Railer13 51 54 8 1
5 Karen_Lingel 49 54 8 1
5 BobLibDem 49 51 7 2
5 Kolak_of_Twilo 49 51 8 1
8 JKellyMap 48 54 8 1
9 SlipperyPete 46 51 8 1
9 flurb 46 49 7 2
11 Lance_Turbo 44 47 6 3
12 smitty300 40 45 5 4
13 racer72 20 24 5 4
97

Only Georgia remains. It’s either @Hawkeyeop with a perfect score if Warnock wins or @Karen_Lingel with 54/55 if Walker wins.

Georgia D

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Hawkeyeop 55 55 10 0
2 DSeid 54 54 9 1
2 Jas09 54 54 9 1
2 JKellyMap 54 54 9 1
2 Railer13 54 54 9 1
6 BobLibDem 51 51 8 2
6 SlipperyPete 51 51 9 1
8 Karen_Lingel 49 49 8 2
8 Kolak_of_Twilo 49 49 8 2
10 flurb 46 46 7 3
11 Lance_Turbo 44 44 6 4
12 smitty300 40 40 5 5
13 racer72 24 24 6 4

Georgia R

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Karen_Lingel 54 54 9 1
2 DSeid 52 52 8 2
2 Jas09 52 52 8 2
4 Hawkeyeop 51 51 9 1
4 Kolak_of_Twilo 51 51 9 1
4 Railer13 51 51 8 2
7 BobLibDem 49 49 7 3
7 flurb 49 49 8 2
9 JKellyMap 48 48 8 2
10 Lance_Turbo 47 47 7 3
11 SlipperyPete 46 46 8 2
12 smitty300 45 45 6 4
13 racer72 20 20 5 5
98

Go, Hawkeyeop!

99

Well fought but I couldn’t be more happy to lose.

100

Amen.