2022 Senate Confidence Pool Contest

Politics & Elections
61

@Jas09, your entry looks great. You hit 6 of 6 called races, and you have 1, 2, 3, and 4 points on the remaining four races.

Based on what I heard from Jon Ralston on TV this morning, 100k + outstanding votes in Nevada are almost completely Clark and Washoe counties mail in vote. Should break heavily blue. I like CCM’s chances. Or at least a little better than a coin flip.

Georgia note: I think I said more than once that the GA runoff would be in January. I never even looked that up and made an assumption based on 2020. The actual runoff (if necessary) will be December 6.

62

@Lance_Turbo, if you have a moment, it’s time to revise the scores in light of networks calling the Wisconsin race (in favor of Ron Johnson, I’m very sorry to report, even if it keeps my win column clean in this thread.)

63

Wisconsin updated. Fuck that state. The Dells are nice.

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Jas09 49 55 7 0
2 Karen_Lingel 46 55 7 0
2 Kolak_of_Twilo 46 55 7 0
4 DSeid 45 55 7 0
4 flurb 45 53 6 1
6 Railer13 44 54 6 1
6 Lance_Turbo 44 53 6 1
8 Hawkeyeop 43 55 7 0
9 JKellyMap 40 55 7 0
9 smitty300 40 52 5 2
11 BobLibDem 39 51 5 2
12 SlipperyPete 37 51 6 1
13 racer72 17 24 3 4

Here’s the called races so far. Only Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada remain.

Race Result
Arizona N/A
Colorado D
Florida R
Georgia N/A
Nevada N/A
New Hampshire D
North Carolina R
Ohio R
Pennsylvania D
Wisconsin R
64

:slight_smile:
(Hey, at least we re-elected our kindly schoolteacher governor, Tony Evers…and Barnes outperformed most recent polls. But, yeah, Johnson is a traitorous idiot, and it astounds me that anyone voted for him. Let’s just hope Walker loses the runoff, allowing Johnson to keep his title as the dumbest senator).

65

@Jas09 impressively has all seven called races correct, and has the maximum possible score for seven correct picks.

There’s only eight ways this can go now. I might brute force those outcomes and see who wins in each.

66

At this point, given my picks in the remaining races, the farther down the rankings I fall the happier I’ll be.

67

That is impressive, but it also means Jas09 can only gain the minimum possible (6 points) for the three outstanding races.
Fun times!

68

Six contestants are 7-0, meaning that each of them can reach the maximum score of 55.

I haven’t looked at the spreadsheet. Is it possible that all six can finish 10-0 with 55 points?

69

There’s one way this can end with three perfect scores.

Three different ways it can end with one perfect score.

And four way this can end with no perfect scores.

70

Thanks for the update!

71

More evidence to support your sentiment. (This is my congressional district.)

"ABC News can project that Republican Derrick Van Orden will win Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district, picking up a seat formerly held by Democrat Ronald Kind. With 89% of the expected vote reporting, Van Orden has 52.8% of the vote to Democrat Brad Pfaff’s 47.1%.

Van Orden was present at former President Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021. Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL, has said he was in the nation’s capital that day for meetings.

Some Capitol Police officers are angry that Orden and others who were in Washington, D.C., that day have run for office. Four officers told ABC News they’re planning to retire early, adding to the already huge problem of worker retention on the force."

Okay, this little hijack can end now. Back to the Senate contests…

72

Here are the eight different ways this can play out. Results in seven different winners. @Karen_Lingel has two paths to victory. She doesn’t care about Arizona.

Arizona D, Georgia D, Nevada D

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Hawkeyeop 55 55 10 0
2 DSeid 54 54 9 1
2 Jas09 54 54 9 1
2 JKellyMap 54 54 9 1
2 Railer13 54 54 9 1
6 BobLibDem 51 51 8 2
6 SlipperyPete 51 51 9 1
8 Karen_Lingel 49 49 8 2
8 Kolak_of_Twilo 49 49 8 2
10 flurb 46 46 7 3
11 Lance_Turbo 44 44 6 4
12 smitty300 40 40 5 5
13 racer72 24 24 6 4

Arizona D, Georgia D, Nevada R

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 DSeid 55 55 10 0
1 Jas09 55 55 10 0
1 JKellyMap 55 55 10 0
4 Hawkeyeop 54 54 9 1
5 Kolak_of_Twilo 53 53 9 1
6 flurb 50 50 8 2
7 Lance_Turbo 49 49 7 3
7 Railer13 49 49 8 2
9 BobLibDem 47 47 7 3
10 Karen_Lingel 46 46 7 3
11 SlipperyPete 45 45 8 2
12 smitty300 44 44 6 4
13 racer72 23 23 5 5

Arizona D, Georgia R, Nevada D

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Karen_Lingel 54 54 9 1
2 DSeid 52 52 8 2
2 Jas09 52 52 8 2
4 Hawkeyeop 51 51 9 1
4 Kolak_of_Twilo 51 51 9 1
4 Railer13 51 51 8 2
7 BobLibDem 49 49 7 3
7 flurb 49 49 8 2
9 JKellyMap 48 48 8 2
10 Lance_Turbo 47 47 7 3
11 SlipperyPete 46 46 8 2
12 smitty300 45 45 6 4
13 racer72 20 20 5 5

Arizona D, Georgia R, Nevada R

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Kolak_of_Twilo 55 55 10 0
2 DSeid 53 53 9 1
2 flurb 53 53 9 1
2 Jas09 53 53 9 1
5 Lance_Turbo 52 52 8 2
6 Karen_Lingel 51 51 8 2
7 Hawkeyeop 50 50 8 2
8 JKellyMap 49 49 9 1
8 smitty300 49 49 7 3
10 Railer13 46 46 7 3
11 BobLibDem 45 45 6 4
12 SlipperyPete 40 40 7 3
13 racer72 19 19 4 6

Arizona R, Georgia D, Nevada D

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Railer13 52 52 8 2
2 Jas09 51 51 8 2
3 Karen_Lingel 50 50 9 1
4 Hawkeyeop 48 48 9 1
4 SlipperyPete 48 48 8 2
6 DSeid 47 47 8 2
7 JKellyMap 46 46 8 2
7 Kolak_of_Twilo 46 46 7 3
9 BobLibDem 45 45 7 3
9 flurb 45 45 6 4
9 Lance_Turbo 45 45 7 3
12 smitty300 43 43 6 4
13 racer72 22 22 5 5

Arizona R, Georgia D, Nevada R

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Jas09 52 52 9 1
2 Kolak_of_Twilo 50 50 8 2
2 Lance_Turbo 50 50 8 2
4 flurb 49 49 7 3
5 DSeid 48 48 9 1
6 Hawkeyeop 47 47 8 2
6 JKellyMap 47 47 9 1
6 Karen_Lingel 47 47 8 2
6 Railer13 47 47 7 3
6 smitty300 47 47 7 3
11 SlipperyPete 42 42 7 3
12 BobLibDem 41 41 6 4
13 racer72 21 21 4 6

Arizona R, Georgia R, Nevada D

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Karen_Lingel 55 55 10 0
2 Jas09 49 49 7 3
2 Railer13 49 49 7 3
4 flurb 48 48 7 3
4 Kolak_of_Twilo 48 48 8 2
4 Lance_Turbo 48 48 8 2
4 smitty300 48 48 7 3
8 DSeid 45 45 7 3
9 Hawkeyeop 44 44 8 2
10 BobLibDem 43 43 6 4
10 SlipperyPete 43 43 7 3
12 JKellyMap 40 40 7 3
13 racer72 18 18 4 6

Arizona R, Georgia R, Nevada R

Rank Name Score Max Hits Misses
1 Lance_Turbo 53 53 9 1
2 flurb 52 52 8 2
2 Karen_Lingel 52 52 9 1
2 Kolak_of_Twilo 52 52 9 1
2 smitty300 52 52 8 2
6 Jas09 50 50 8 2
7 DSeid 46 46 8 2
8 Railer13 44 44 6 4
9 Hawkeyeop 43 43 7 3
10 JKellyMap 41 41 8 2
11 BobLibDem 39 39 5 5
12 SlipperyPete 37 37 6 4
13 racer72 17 17 3 7
73

I’ve never cared about Arizona.

74

Their iced tea ain’t bad.

75

That was funny! (And, thanks to Lance for the math work).

76

Rooting for @Hawkeyeop!!

77

Heh. Guessing you aren’t alone. I feel pretty good aboutit. I think all three of them are in decent shape.

78

Oh good god, I seriously don’t want to have the best score in this thing.

And does the GA runoff effect the results?

79

The results are based on the final outcomes of the three states that have not been called.

80

I wonder how much early voting impacts the predictive power of poll movement in the last two weeks?

It seems results are closer to polling results when Ds “peaked too early” than the drift back down just before in person voting started.