2022 US Senate Races

[Sage_Rat]

@DeadTreasSecretaries

You’re right that it’s not politically neutral because the GOP now sees an opportunity to maintain a post-Shelby system where GOP-run states can violate constitutional election law and not face the most effective enforcement mechanism, and there aren’t 10 GOP senators who oppose this partisan power-grab.

You still have not supported an idea that this dynamic would be different if it weren’t for the For The People act (or really any of the Democrats’ bills).

Let’s say that you see a man with some thin metal rods trying to unlock a door. You ask him, “Is that your home? You sure look like you’re trying to break in, illegally.” He responds, “No, no, this is definitely my home. No worry, sir/ma’am. I lost the key about a year ago and this is just how I open it every day.”

I’d put it to you that if the man genuinely lived in that house and had an honest right to be there every day, he’d have gone and had a new key made. You don’t stick to doing things in the wrong way when you have a clear and open pathway to doing it the right way.

So now, my understanding of what you’re saying is that the law which proposes unconstitutional things is the only thing that would help because previous, more limited laws in the same vein were ruled unconstitutional?

I’m aware of a mechanism for turning things that are not Constitutional into things that are Constitutional. I would genuinely hope that someone who’s job it is to serve and protect the Constitution would also know that mechanism.

If they’re avoiding doing that and pretending like it doesn’t exist and that it’s them rascally Republicans who are really holding things up, I’m not buying that they’re honestly devoted to it.

The Democratic party has a large media organ and I can guarantee you that the public, unaffiliated media including everyone from Joe Rogan to Arnold Schwarzenegger to Howard Stern are going to get 100% behind some simple, apartisan amendments to do things like creating a voting holiday and getting rid of gerrymandering. Ain’t no one that can make any real argument against those and the people will see that. You don’t need 600 pages, just a few clear, unambiguous sentences.

Any politician who does not back it, they are gone from office.

The Democrats can be the good guys, tomorrow, in just a few minutes. All they have to do is actually want it. I’m happy to write up the amendments and send them over, myself.

[Chingon]

This seems pretty of touch with how politics works in America today.

[DeadTreasSecretaries]

Sorry, what are you alleging is being proposed which is unconstitutional?

The fixes to preclearance pass the constitutional test for that type of regime laid out by the SCOTUS in Shelby.

[Sage_Rat]

@Chingon

This seems pretty of touch with how politics works in America today.

Well, yeah, because everyone’s written off just doing things above-board and in an apartisan, “for the good of the nation” fashion.

The whole object of a politician is to find someone who is honorable, trustworthy, and respected. Y’all have elected scumbags and are out cheering, day-in and day-out for your scumbags to out-scumbaggery their scumbags on the field of lying, cheating, and pulling the wool o’er their eyes and hey, surprise, no one trusts any of them.

I don’t personally see the advantage to that, or how you expect that to turn out good in the long run. But hey, you could always stop doing that. I guarantee, you’ll start being more happy about politics and the decisions they make.

If you’re not thinking like I do and you’re thinking that the way that politics is done today is good then that’s pretty well making my point about why we don’t have anti-gerrymandering laws. You want gerrymandering, you just don’t want it for them. Your liking of this system keeps this system; your rejection of my system ensures that we don’t have my system.

That doesn’t have to be the way that things are.

[PhillyGuy]

@Velocity

Democrats will sweep both the House and Senate big time. Time to put feet back and relax.

Was this meant seriously and literally?

If so, I guess you didn’t read this yet:

Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster

Between those two factors, it’s reasonable to assume that Democrats are looking at a vote share between 47% and 48.5% this cycle. This means Republicans will probably win the generic ballot by between three and six percent, and the median scenario is probably Republicans winning by around 4.5%. Since Joe Biden won by 4.5% in 2020, this would mean that the national environment has shifted 9 percentage points to the right.

Assume, for a moment, that there is zero ticket-splitting, and this swing is uniform across all elections. This would mean any Democrat in a state that Biden won by less than 9% will probably lose . . .

Both ticket-splitting and incumbency advantage have declined precipitously in recent years, and are both now near zero

Are Oz and Walker weak November candidates? Yes. DJT is a weak November candidate. But candidate identity is not nearly as important as the price of cream cheese and gasoline.

[DeadTreasSecretaries]

Wait what is this about cream cheese?

[Chingon]

Oh it’s everybody else at fault. When are you dispensing golden tickets to your utopia?

[Sage_Rat]

Right now, baby. List out how to detect whether someone is working for the people or for their party and, when it’s election day, honestly and dutifuly go through and check everyone. Leave blanks if no one passes.

You do not need to fill out an answer for every race on the ballot.

If you want to get rid of gerrymandering, of partisanship, or whatever, it is 100% purely and totally on you to ensure it. Ain’t no one coming down from on high to give it to you.

Or, you know, if they do then support them. And the Democrats can use that to get you what you want. Work for the party and you’ll get the partisan vote. Work for the people and you’ll get your partisan vote plus the non-partisan vote. That’s more.

[Chingon]

I’m not sure how you know everybody else is voting wrong (besides you of course). What’s your secret?

[PhillyGuy]

@DeadTreasSecretaries

Wait what is this about cream cheese?

My favorite supermarket around here, Lidl, had the standard 8 oz. bar at 79 cents for a couple years. After the product came back in stock after a shortage, it is now up to, well, it’s either $1.28 or $1.48; my memory is failing me there. Having a higher income than your average swing voter, I don’t have to worry about it.

I do recall their whole wheat bread price increase — $1.25 went to $1.98.

Their 8oz. rice pudding cups went from 88 cent to $1.38 about two weeks ago.

And these are real prices, in the sense that only a tiny percentage of their merchandise is discounted in any given week.

Dutch imported cookies I like went from $1.99 to $2.49 last month. American and Canadian sweets are also up.

I think the fresh fish increase is more like the 8-10 percent official inflation rate.

Biden’s fault? Not a bit. Does it make the slightest sense to vote for Oz over Fetterman because of it? No, but people will.

[Sage_Rat]

@Chingon

I’m not sure how you know everybody else is voting wrong (besides you of course).

Is there any argument that gerrymandering is a device that exists for the sake of the people, as opposed to sake of the parties?

Is gerrymandering allowed?

This is kind of like saying that you don’t think Bob hurts himself, when we’ve got Bob sitting right there sticking a fork in his own eye. If a fork in the eye isn’t good enough evidence, I don’t know what I could possibly offer to convince you.

[Chingon]

How did you manage to get rid of gerrymandering in your state?

[Sage_Rat]

We elected someone who understood that you don’t crap in the bed where you sleep.

He backed an amendment and the people swooped it up in two seconds flat. You just need someone to put it on the table and the people will come for it.

If you can then proceed to not fool around with your maid, you might retain power.

[EllisDee]

So you got a Republican to back it. Imagine how that nice that would be nowadays.

[PastTense]

Another issue concerns Social Security and other fixed income recipients. Does anyone have a good estimate of what the total inflation rate will be from when Biden took office in January 2021 to election day, November 2022, particularly the goods and services seniors use? It’s going to be massively higher than the 5.9% they got in January. And those who rely heavily on Social Security are really going to be hurting by election date.

And they are going to react to this hurt by voting Republican.

[Railer13]

@iamthewalrus_3

They very specifically passed another big stimulus payment (the $2000 checks that the Georgia Senate runoff candidates campaigned heavily on)

Who is ‘they’? The Democrats?

There were two stimulus payments in 2020, both passed by the Democratic-controlled House and the GOP-controlled Senate. Those payments were in March and December, $1200 and $600. The next stimulus payment, $1400, was in March of 2021, passed by the House and Senate, both controlled by the Democrats.

The Georgia runoff election was January 5, 2021.

Not buying your argument here.

[Lance_Turbo]

@Sage_Rat

We elected someone who understood that you don’t crap in the bed where you sleep.

He backed an amendment and the people swooped it up in two seconds flat. You just need someone to put it on the table and the people will come for it.

2008 California Proposition 11 passed with 50.82% of the vote to 49.18%. A margin of 197,378 votes out 11,992,688 valid votes cast.

This in a far less rancorous political environment in heavily liberal California.

The idea that this would get overwhelming support today is straight bonkers.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

The latest from the Keystone State: New Pa. U.S. Senate poll: John Fetterman pulling ahead as Democratic favorite; GOP race still wide open | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

[iamthewalrus_3]

@Railer13

Those payments were in March and December, $1200 and $600. The next stimulus payment, $1400, was in March of 2021, passed by the House and Senate, both controlled by the Democrats.

The Georgia runoff election was January 5, 2021.

Yes, they the Democrats. Do you not remember the campaigning about how the second $600 check should have been $2000? Both Georgia runoff Senate candidates came out strongly in favor of it, and it arguably won them the election. And when they did, the Democrats passed another big stimulus bill that contained the $1400 missing from the $600 that the previous Congress had passed.

Here is a video with clips of Ossoff and Biden campaigning on $2000 stimulus checks in January just before the runoff election. I did not find a specific video of Warnock making that promise in my brief search. I do recall that as happening, but it’s possible my memory is mistaken. Do you not remember this? It was a major campaign issue and the best-known part of the biggest bill the Democrats have passed in this term. I’m not trying to be sneaky here; I thought it was pretty common knowledge.

[Railer13]

@iamthewalrus_3

Both Georgia runoff Senate candidates came out strongly in favor of it, and it arguably won them the election. And when they did, the Democrats passed another big stimulus bill that contained the $1400 missing from the $600 that the previous Congress had passed.

OK, I missed your point. I thought you were making the point that the Georgia Senate candidates were campaigning on the $2000 stimulus that was passed by the Democrats. But you were referring to the future stimulus. My apology.