2022 US Senate Races

Dr. Oz is something else. This is cracking me up this morning. He grew up just “south of Philadelphia”.

Sounds like Oz grew up under water, but not as bad as it would’ve been if his youth had been spent on the east side of Chicago.

The Delaware river is south of phila…then I guess New Jersey….

I grew up south of Canada. Guess I should run for Prime Minister.

I know that the NRSC has cut some spending in Pennsylvania, but I wonder how much longer until Republicans write off Oz completely. Pennsylvania’s a fairly expensive state to campaign in. Those resources might be put to better effect shoring up Ohio and Wisconsin, while trying to flip GA and a less expensive state like Nevada or New Hampshire.

CNN has put out their latest rankings of which Senate seats are most likely to flip. Not a lot of surprise here, with Wisconsin moving up while Arizona moves down. They still think Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada is the most endangered Democratic incumbent (and #2 most likely to flip overall).

FiveThirtyEight is up to Dems winning the Senate in 70% of their model runs (“deluxe” version, which combines polls with other data like the economy).

That’s still a significant probability that the Republicans win, but it’s a heck of a lot better than the 40% of a few months ago.

Wisconsin is now 51/49 Johnson compared to ~68/32 a month ago.
Brian

On the playground was where he spent most of his days.

He’s just a city boy
Born and raised in south of Philadelphia.

More from the Tarheel State:

I just moved from the SF Bay Area to Northern Nevada a few months ago…and there are about a million others here just like me. It’s possible that Nevada may get slightly more blue over time.

We’re flooded with advertising for the Senate and Governor’s race, and absolutely nothing else (I’m not even sure who my Congressperson is, I’m ashamed to say). Apparently Cortez Masto is a big-spending liberal and Laxalt is in the pocket of Big Pharma. Laxalt never mentions that he’s running for the job previously held by his father.

And there’s a generic Republican commercial that implies that the worst thing you can say about a politician is that they’re aligned with California – it lists all the cases where the Nevada legislature has enacted similar legislation to California’s, with the tagline “Don’t let Nevada get Newsomed.”

Oz is done. Definitely, if this pans out:

About 5 hours ago, some snoop found a 2015 writeup re: investigative complaints about his treatment of puppies in a 2004 experiment he ran at Columbia University. This is the snippet beginning to make the rounds on the Twits:

Imgur

I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the info, it’s only from one source and this is still very fresh. But we will see…

What leads you to believe that MAGA voters care about puppies? This will have about as much effect as Trump’s scandal regarding pussies.

MAGA voters probably don’t, but Oz can’t win without attracting some more traditional Republican/ independent voters, and puppy-killers aren’t going to score points with soccer moms.

New York Times, Sept. 8, 2022

There are enough people in the Philadelphia suburbs, who are just plain afraid of the city, to make such fear-mongering politically plausble. But it makes for a complicated fact check.

Here’s a challenge. Find (I tried a bit of googling and failed) out where Oz lived in West Philadelphia.

There’s been enough gentification near the Penn campus to make that then-and-now statement possibly ludicrous were we to know where Oz then lived.

P.S. for extra credit: Where did DJT live when at Penn and not on the West Philadelphia golf course? I’ve looked harder for that info, and also can’t find it. You’d think any school with a presidential alum would want to put up a plaque outside his dorm, right :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I’m as happy about the current state of affairs as anyone, but do not underestimate what the upcoming Republican campaign spending blitz will be able to accomplish. Even as their candidates have fallen behind in traditional fundraising, there’s an ocean of Republican-affiliated dark money sitting out there. And the more talk there is that Democrats are likely to hold the Senate and maybe even the House, the more those megadonors are going to open the spigot.

Democratic candidate Tim Ryan of Ohio has a talented friend, at least:

In introducing his bill, Graham said, "If we take back the House and the Senate, I can assure you we’ll have a vote on our bill.” Give Lindsey credit, he’s clarifying the stakes in these races.

If that bill set all abortion laws to that standard, I would be okay with it. …15 weeks, no abortion on demand except in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother,… So, if this new law overrides states abortion laws- not so bad. But of course it does not.

That is not far out of line with EU standards.