Goggled “Kick Johnson Outa Wisconsin!”, expecting to see it as some worn-out meme, but there’s no sign of it, so…heh, you’re welcome? That’d make a good gas pump sticker, in the shape of the state. That could be the state I’ll be following the closest, and put all my fu energy into, with the prayers that with each passing day will be an increasing gyre of unrelenting, hellish awfulness for Ron, culminating in a (you heard it here now) three point loss for him come November.
Fivethirtyeight now has it 54/46 Johnson, due to a new poll that has Barnes +2.
Two important bits of info:
The poll was LIKELY voters (previous polls were registered voters)
The poll taker (Trafalgar) is a partisan poller for Republicans
Brian
(lives in MN, but 95% of my media coverage is WI)
A Trafalgar poll that shows Barnes winning is extremely good news!
In the back of my mind I can’t shake the idea that maybe Trafalgar is fucking with us to set up some kind of Ron Johnson surge narrative down the road. Company founder, Robert Cahaly, is pretty much a grifter.
538 does give them an A- though, so maybe this in a ‘honest’ poll with a slight Republican bias.
As always… I want more polling data before I get too excited.
I don’t know at all what to make of this midterm. Every bone in my body says that this should be a Republican wave election. The historical pattern of midterms is overwhelming, the President’s approval rating is negative, wrong track/right direction polling is running 70/30, Democrats got clobbered in the VA and NJ elections last year, etc. And yet Democrats are looking good to hold the Senate and keep loses to a minimum in the House.
Of course, two years ago it looked like Democrats might sweep competitive Senate races and that South Carolina and Oklahoma were legitimate pickup opportunities. . .
The underlying historical midterm trends are certainly against the Dems, and Republicans tend to end up winning those neck-and-neck races, so I have to admit I’m still pessimistic. But, as ever, I’d be delighted to be proven wrong!
Heard today on CNN or MSNBC (radio) that two BIG factors to consider (which you guys have probably already discussed–I’ve not read the thread to catch up) are January 6th and loss of abortion rights. Both are historical, one-of-a-kind events, and will have an unknown impact on the results this year (but it surely won’t be nothing). Plus Biden passing his big bill, and a slight uptick in the past few days for his approval rating.
A bit over one month later and 538 has the Dems with a 67% chance of the Senate and the GOP 77% for the House. The good (in my opinion) trend continues.
Well, yeah. The GOP was on track to take back both houses (but the Senate was close). But then the GOP had it’s special anti-Roe hitmen kiss the ass of the small minority that want ALL abortion banned, even for rape, mother health, fetus without a head, and so forth. They catered to that 20% or so, pissing off 80%. Kansas proved this. This may well be a disaster of Biblical proportions for the GOP.
(Not to mention January 6th)
Even McConnell seems to be resigned to losing the Senate again.
Still, this election will be very close… but it wasn’t supposed to be close for the House. It was supposed to be a slam dunk.
My predictions- Dems gain a seat in the Senate, and barely retain control of the House- but not by much. Mind you, it is still more than two months away…
I do not believe it will be nothing, but even if it is minor, it still says something horrible about the GOP regarding January 6th. The overwhelming majority of republican congresspeople voted to not convict Trump and therefore are condoning treason. In addition, either a vast, or perhaps overwhelming, number of Republican voters will vote to re-elect them in November in districts where they are running. So, even if that is only 95% of Republican voters, and, let’s face it, it will probably be more than that, it means that 95% of Republican voters are okay with treason.
However, if the optimism is warranted, and 5% or more of them switch parties or do not vote, then there will be a blue wave despite this support for the violent coup attempt.
Here’s Oz trying to rouse up his “supporters”. I wonder how they got paid? Discounted green coffee?
Anything seems like a better idea than taking shots at a stroke victim. It seems like just terrible politics in any event, but especially someone like Oz who just doesn’t have the personality to play the mean guy.
“The Oz campaign said it would “pay for any additional medical personnel” Fetterman might need to have on standby, in addition to permitting him bathroom breaks and allowing him to have all of his notes on hand, along with an earpiece to obtain answers from his staff.”
Worst snark ever.
What’s the story with Nevada and Senator Cortez-Masto? Is she an especially weak candidate, or is Nevada moving to the right? Are there local issues like the low water levels at Lake Mead that she has dealt with poorly?
She isn’t an “especially weak candidate,” but Nevada is a closely divided state (which actually has a slight R partisan lean compared to the nation as a whole) and Republicans didn’t do her the favor they’ve done elsewhere of selecting a complete buffoon for a candidate. Nevada’s also got a fairly transient population, which erodes some of her advantage as an incumbent.
Biden won Nevada by only two percentage points, and Democratic turnout in midterm elections there has not historically been very good. Moreover, the state’s tourism-dependent economy was really hit hard by the pandemic, and Cortez Masto isn’t a high-profile senator with the deep name recognition of her predecessor (Harry Reid) or the Rand Pauls and Elizabeth Warrens of the Senate. (Plus, nearly half of Nevada’s voters have registered since she was last on the ballot in 2016.)
She also ignored my repeated requests to be removed from the DSCC mailing list when she chaired it, so to hell with her! 
Some encouraging news from the Buckeye State:
Facts.
I live in MAGAson County, just outside of Cow-lumbus. My wife and I have been marvelling at just how little you see of Vance ads during the news. There’s really only one ad out, right now, and it’s the one where his wife trots out and talks about his book. Again.
Meanwhile, Tim Ryan has the gloves off. Aside from the cheesy bullseye dart shot, it’s spot on. The DNC should take notes. THIS is what their messaging should look like. He talks like “they” talk, but with all that “grounding in reality” that the GOP is lacking. And no demagoguery.
I would have voted for Ryan, regardless. This, however, fills me with glee.
Imagine if Sherrod Brown had someone he could work with!
Yes. And Ryan, to his credit, often praises Brown as a good, hard-working senator.
Well, he is! Sherrod Brown and Joyce Beatty are routinely answering the public’s questions (Truthfully, so far as I can tell…) and representing their constituencies to the best of their individual abilities, both on local and national news programs. Thank the good lord for both of them. I mean that.
That dick-whistle Jim Jordan, somehow, gets more airtime, but around here, it should come as no surprise.
As an aside, when Aunt Joyce got bear-sprayed in Downtown Columbus, during the protests, my friend’s husband Shannon was standing beside her, and I think my heart almost exploded into my throat… HOW do you mace Joyce Beatty? HOW? And Shannon is one of the sweetest people in the world, who would only ever do what is best for HIS constituency, and both of them were being peaceful.
My heart breaks for this country. It really does.