Republicans are NOT happy about what’s happening at the NRSC these days, with the Washington Post running an article full of shit-talking anonymous Republican campaign sources. Apparently, the committee raised $173 million but has burned through nearly all of it. A lot of the ire is focused on Sen. Rick Scott, who’s accused of using the committee more to prop up his own profile than boost Republican candidates.
The irony is that Mitch McConnel’s SuperPAC is having to swoop in and make up the difference, spending tens of millions of dollars to support Republican Senate candidates – several of whom openly questioned his leadership during their primaries and certainly don’t want to be too closely associated with him.
Here’s a slope chart that compares the debiased PredictIt model to 538’s deluxe model for 2022 senate races of interest. They are aligned for the most part with 538 bunched up toward the middle a bit more than PredictIt. My opinion is that this shows a small flaw in 538 model. E.g. 14.7% chance for the dems to win Florida, and 36.6% to win NC are way too high.
ETA: Discourse is doing quite a bit of cropping on that image. Click in to see it better. It’s hosted at photos.google.com not something sketchy.
Uh oh — just yesterday I donated a significant sum to Beasley (the NC Dem), based on the 538 model’s optimism that she has a reasonable chance of winning. (I’m not an NC resident).
(My other out-of-state donation was to the New Hampshire Dem — what’s her name again? Something Arabic sounding, I think through her husband’s parentage.)
Right. But another poster suggested that the actual odds are much lower — that Politico’s model may be more accurate than 538s, and Politico currently has her (Beasley) around 20%. Still worth supporting a little financially, arguably.
That’s the one. Could end up being an important race (but, to me, nothing is as important - nor as nail-bitingly close, according to recent polls — as Mandela Barnes vs. that traitorous idiot Ron Johnson, in Wisconsin).
I live in North Carolina and on the local news last night they cited a poll that showed Beasley and Budd tied at ~42% each with the rest undecided. I think it will be a very tight race.
The major super PAC supporting Republican Senate candidates has cut its spending on Blake Masters in Arizona, cancelling $8 million in advertising. Republicans’ own polling must be telling them they’re in deep shit for them to already be casting aside should-be-competitive states like AZ and PA and focusing resources on should-be-in-the-bag states like OH.
One of Georgia or Nevada results in blue senate control. Both of them gets 51 seats. The 52nd seat, a.k.a. Manchin and Sinema are irrelevant, is probably Wisconsin.
