Like Rand Paul, whose positions are similar to McConnell’s, plus a heaping helping of antivax/conspiracy theory crazy sauce.
Threatening people’s Social Security and Medicare benefits in the middle of a campaign is usually considered a disastrous move, even for Republicans.
Ron Johnson don’t care. Ron Johnson don’t give a shit.
His Democratic opponent should include this in every single TV ad.
I’ve seen what happens after such predictions are made, and it ain’t pretty. Get your feet back on the ground and hit the pavement because, otherwise, “Oopsies! I guess I was wrong” won’t be accepted as an excuse any longer.
Wow. I don’t know a rail track could have a third rail AND a fourth one.
All of them with double electricity.
Wisconsin?! That would be a dream come true.
Here’s the 538 averages for AZ and PA…
Arizona
Kelly (D-inc) 51.1% (+10.2)
Masters (R) 40.9%
Pennsylvania
Fetterman (D) 49.0% (+10.7)
Oz (R) 38.3% .
I could see the NRSC throwing AZ and PA overboard if the polling remains atrocious, but there’s no way they’re giving up on Ron Johnson. Unlike AZ and PA, he’s an incumbent and the NRSC would be loath to pull the plug on a sitting Senator. Plus, it’s unwarranted – polling has been sparse lately, but WI is within a couple points in every previous poll.
They’re probably just shifting money around and coordinating with Republican SuperPACs to pick up the difference. No, that can’t be it because that would be illegal. . . BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
This tweet from the NRSC and a verified Twitter account seems to indicate that it’s just an accounting measure. Makes sense to me, I can’t imagine triaging any of those states when it’s not even Labor Day.
A guy can hope…
With all of the caveats about there still being a long way to go until November and Republicans still have a mountain of cash that they will unload on advertising, things are looking promising for Senate Democrats. The most hopeful sign for me is that Republican-leaning seats that looked like they would be a reach for Democrats in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida are now polling even or a slight D lead. It may not last, but at the very least it will force Republicans to spend more money defending seats that they would rather use on offense in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
I am just so freaking flabbergasted that a mentally disturbed, dim-witted and repugnant candidate like Herschel Walker is slightly ahead of a gem of a Senator like Raphael Warnock, according to 538’s Deluxe model.
Plouffe on msnbc just called dr. Oz a “world class tool” during a discussion on the crudité ad.
Good grief.
I agree, I don’t know how warnock isn’t blasting walker out of the water. The good air/bad air thing should have been a huge points loser.
Note that the actual polling averages on that page seem to be pro-Warnock (looking around Warnock+3 average but up to Warnock+10) - a lot of the current aheadness in probability is due to the Deluxe model’s weight on fundamentals from past elections. edit: Their weighted average on polls is Warnock + 1.7.
Oz is a joke candidate and everyone other than him knows it. I don’t know too much about Fetterman but I’m pretty sure people from Pittsburgh don’t look kindly upon wealthy outsiders coming in and posing as one of them. Next, Oz will be complaining about how hard it is to find reasonably priced caviar at McWendys.
A Marquette University poll has Democrat Mandela Barnes up by seven points over incumbent GOP Senator Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.
538 still has Johnson at 60% (was 68% July 30)
Article (before latest poll)
Brian
(again, I live in MN, but get WI ads)
538 (and similar sites) do a weighted average of various polls. The weighting is for age, with newer ones being given more weight, but also their judgement of how good the polster is. Also, the poll results may be adjusted for bias. That is, some polsters tend to get results skewed towards one party or the other, so that is adjusted for.
At any rate, a new poll or two is not going to drastically change their estimate of a race.
Give Ron Johnson this much credit, he’s not just touching the third rail of American politics, he’s grabbing it with both hands and trying to strangle it into submission.
Note that 538’s default win% is based on their deluxe model, which takes into account more things than polls – Classic (see below) + expert’s ratings
Polls alone has 61 % chance of Barnes winning.
Classic Model is 51/49 Johnson (based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more)
Brian
(note that all recent polls are Registered Voters – so like many elections turnout will be key)