538 now has the Dems with a 51% chance to keep the Senate and the GOP is down to an 84% chance of taking the House. Things are moving in the right direction.
538’s forecasts seem to be a bit red-shifted. I looked just now and they had Herschel Walker at 56% to win that seat and Vance at 83% to win OH. I don’t see it.
Those are good numbers for Democrats, though. Both are much lower than what should have been expected a year ago.
It does look like the threat (promise?) of an Eric Greitens candidacy in Missouri is falling apart. As the one Republican who could maybe give Democrats a shot at the Senate seat in MO, the Republican establishment has come out swinging hard at him in advance of Tuesday’s primary. An anti-Greitens superPAC dumped millions of dollars on ads highlighting the charges of domestic abuse made by his ex-wife. He’s fallen into third place in recent polls after leading for months.
Couldn’t happen to a shittier guy, but like I said he was the one guy who could give Democrats a shot or at least force Republicans to spend money shoring up another weak candidate.
Yep. Hats off to whoever produced that spot. The guy is a complete fraud and snake oil salesman.
Lots of activity this past week in Wisconsin.
First Tom Nelson dropped out (ran out of money), then (surprising to me) Alex Lasry ( He has had a LOT of ads), and now Sarah Godlewski. So Mandela Barnes (Lt Gov) is going to be the Dem candidate. I saw my first MB commercial yesterday.
(Note that I live in MN, but most of my TV stations are based in WI – though their antennas are in MN)
(Actually my ABC station is physically in MN, but is definitely WI focused)
Brian
Does Barnes have a chance? Because that would be a yuge pickup for the Dems.
538 right now has Johnson at 68% chance of winning, but the odds are heading towards a closer race
Brian
Heheheheh.
I just love the box that Mitch McConnel is in trying to keep Republicans from nominating shitty Senate candidates. He knows that Oz, Hershel Walker, JD Vance and Blake Masters are poor-to-terrible candidates who could piss away winnable Senate races in what should be a very favorable midterm environment. But he couldn’t say anything about it during their primaries, because he’s so hated by the grassroots that it would probably end up helping these candidates. And now he has to pretend to be happy with them because they’re his only ticket back to the Majority Leader seat.
Wouldn’t it be a kick in the teeth for Moscow Mitch if someone else was elected Senate Majority Leader if the republicans gain the majority in November?
We could conceivably get someone worse.
Better for it not to be an issue in the first place.
I’d be very surprised if Republicans take the Senate in the fall and don’t make Mitch Majority Leader. While there have been a couple Republican Senate candidates who’ve pledged not to vote for him for Majority Leader, he was unanimously elected by Senate Republicans to remain as their leader at the start of this Congress.
They may say that they don’t want him as Majority Leader in order to pander to their base of voters, but when the rubber meets the road they vote for him because they do want those plum committee assignments and getting their bills on the calendar.
Say what you will about McConnel, but as Majority Leader he has always put his members’ electoral interests ahead of any larger political ambitions of his own or personal pride. He doesn’t really care if they bad mouth him on the campaign trail if that will help them get elected. All he cares about is growing the Senate Republican Caucus and he’ll take any position or adopt any strategy that will help his members get reelected.
The same could NOT be said of Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley or most other Republican Senators who are thought of as potential Majority Leaders. A Majority Leader Cruz or Hawley would use the position as a platform to advance their own presidential ambitions, and the hell with whether that helps or hurts individual Republican Senators. That’s the other reason Mitch is secure – who do you replace him with?
As awful as he is, and he is certainly gawdawful, given the GOP Senate caucus I can easily imagine someone worse.
Trump has announced that he is endorsing “Eric” in the Missouri Senate race – “Eric” being a name shared by two of the leading Republican candidates. Apparently, this is his too-cute way to endorse who he really wants to (Eric Greitens) while throwing a bone to the establishment (and leading in polls) candidate (state Attorney General Eric Schmitt).
On top of that, there’s yet a third Eric - Eric McElroy - among the 21 candidates running for Senate in Missouri’s Republican primary. It would be a real hoot if he split the ERIC vote enough to have Rep. Vicky Hartzler squeak through as the actual nominee.
Why do I think this brilliant bit of strategery doesn’t work out the way DJT expects it to work out?
AP has called the Missouri Republican Senate primary for Eric Schmitt. Eliminates the outside chance of a Democratic pickup they might have had with Greitens.