A fairly well known example…
“Nationwide, it was possible to vote for Sanders as a write-in candidate in 12 states, and exact totals of write-in votes for Sanders were published in three states: California, New Hampshire, and Vermont. In those three states, Sanders received 111,850 write-in votes, approximately 15% of the write-in vote nationwide and 0.08% of the vote overall.”
From:
Again, I get the idea of a pox-on-both voter. But if you’re a single-issue voter, and that issue is ‘abortion’, and you were ready to pull the lever for Walker because you know what it’d mean to have Warnock voting ‘aye’ instead of Walker voting ‘nay’, or vice versa, then — what? You care so much about abortion that you’ll — recoil from voting against Warnock?
Walker’s “I’ve never seen/heard/ know of” this woman, just fell.
“Oh that woman!”
Much like how conservative Christians view Trump as a modern-day Cyrus the Great, a Persian king from the Old Testament who was seen as acting as an agent of God’s will, despite his non-believer status, I imagine that most will view Walker the same way. “Sure, he’s flawed, and has sinned, but I still trust that he will vote to ban abortion.”
It’s hilarious that the article can identify her as the mother of one of his children whom he pressured into an abortion, and he STILL may not know who exactly it is.
Here’s an example from Georgia in 2020.
2,461,854 voters voted for Trump…
but that’s not as many as…
2,473,633 voters who voted for Biden…
but that’s not as many as…
2,490,393 voters who voted for the Republican candidate in their congressional district.
Trump ran behind the R candidate in almost every congressional district. Trump earned fewer votes in GA-14 than Marjorie Taylor Greene. There were voters who were cool with her, but not Trump. What’s that person even like?
Those people who voted for Republican congresspeople didn’t flip to Biden. Only 2,393,089 cast D votes in congressional races. They voted for Jo Jorgensen or left the president portion blank.
Some people just can’t bring themselves to vote for someone they don’t ‘like’, for whatever like means to them. You’re assuming a lot more rationality in peoples’ voting decisions than the evidence warrants.
If they were rationally voting in a way to maximize chances for senate control, 100% of
Republican voters would hold their nose and vote Walker. But there’s a nonzero amount of voters that are not approaching this rationally. In a tight race, that nonzero amount of voters could change the outcome.
We’d like to respect her anonymity, but we can tell you that she’s the mother of one of Walker’s children.
No, but when you get off work on November 8th, and you’re tired after a long and crappy day at work, you may be more likely to decide you’d rather go sit in a bar for a couple of hours than stand in line at the polls. Its all about turnout, especially in the midterms.
One more thing to note.
This race could easily go to a runoff. There’s certainly people who aren’t crazy about Walker but will show to vote for, say, Kemp over Abrams and will cast a vote for Walker because they already di the hard part of voting which is showing up. If this goes to runoff, there won’t be much else on the ballot if anything.
Perdue beat Ossoff on election day in 2020, and both candidates lost votes in the run off. Perdue lost a lot more than Ossoff though, and Ossoff won the race. Those Georgia senate run offs were very much about senate control. The Dems were sitting on 48 seats and the Republicans had 50 locked up.
The special senate election, that Warnock won, is a little harder to analyze, because it involved a jungle primary in November with each major party having six candidates on the ballot. But the results are similar if you look at two party vote share. The blue team showed up with senate control on the line and the red team did not.
If Chase Oliver gets enough votes to force a run off, it’s possible that Republicans just don’t turn out for the run off. It happened two years ago with senate control on the line.
it is my understanding that mr walker had 1 child with his wife, and 4 children through affairs.
Of course, that assumes that you trust a liar. And that you are willing to be represented by someone who will very likely be ineffectual in office, and do nothing to advance the interests of his Georgia constituents.
Huh, now that I think about it, that probably wouldn’t turn off many Republican voters, would it? Ineffectual liars does seem to be their thing.
And of course, the benefit there, is that this right leaning voter is also not voting in any of the other races on the ballot.
Karl Rove’s “gut” is telling him that the Senate will go 51-49 for Republicans.
Of course, Karl’s intestinal tract has been off a bit on previous occasions, as in 2020 when the votes for President were still being counted and he told Jared Kushner there was “statistically” no way Trump could lose. And there was this in 2012 from Rove:
“My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”
(actual electoral votes for Mitt - 206. Obama got 332).
Wish there were something you could do to help your Democratic candidate of choice win? Well, there is. You could volunteer for him/her.
Here’s a chart from the VoteDem subreddit, showing Democratic candidates and how you can volunteer for them.
Yes, that famous clip of Turd Blossom on Fox News on election night 2012 wailing and complaining when Fox projected Ohio for Obama is a thing of beauty. Even Meghan Kelly was annoyed.
Remember her money quote (I’ve got no use for her but it was a thing of beauty): “Is that real math, or some sort of Republican math you use to make yourself feel better?” (From memory, probably not exact).
I just found my old post from 2012.
I remember seeing the whole Fox News thing live as it happened that night, once I saw that Obama had won, I flipped the channel because I thought it might be fun. I was not disappointed.
Much thanks. She’s a tool, but she can think on her feet!
Sen. Ben Sasse reportedly resigning to take over as the president of the University of Florida. Doesn’t really change much as the Republican governor of Nebraska will appoint his replacement, but Sasse did at least occasionally show some willingness to diverge from Trump.
I just saw that news story about Sasse on CNN. My impression of him has always been that of a reasonable traditional conservative – someone I can disagree with but have an intelligent conversation with. But Sasse has been increasingly fed up with what Republicans have lately become. I’m not surprised he’s leaving the Senate, but it doesn’t bode well for the future if he’s replaced by yet another lunatic who fits right in with the crazy.
Let’s do so more on Georgia because… why not?
Three weeks ago, prominent never-Trump Republican political strategist, Tim Miller, took a trip to Georgia looking for spit ticket voters and wrote it up for a The Bulwark.
The whole thing is worth a read. Here are some quotes:
So my search for real-life Kemp/Warnock voters began. And I have to say . . . they were much easier to find than I expected.
And this paragraph about Ansley Thompson:
As for the Senate race, Thompson summed up her vote this way: “Walker doesn’t have the character or ideology . . . he doesn’t make sense half the time. . . . Sometimes in races like these I’m still tempted to go the write-in or third party route, but I think this race could be close enough that I want to go the pro-democracy, character-matters-most route.”
Surely if voters like Thompson exist, voters who are almost convinced to vote for Warnock exist as well. Could the abortion story push them over line? It seems obvious that there must be some voters who fall into this category.
Are there enough of them to make a difference? We’ll see in November (and then maybe see some more in January).
What if you trust the other guy?
If, again, we’re talking about a single-issue voter, and the issue is ‘abortion’, and one guy is a real straight shooter who truthfully says he’ll vote the way you don’t want, that’s — what, a one hundred percent chance of him leaving you shaking your head sadly, and zero of getting what you want?
And if the other guy says he’ll vote exactly the way you want on this, but he lies sometimes, that’s — maybe an eighty-twenty shot at getting what you want? Or maybe it’s sixty-forty, or ninety-ten? It’s not zero, is all; so, if you had to vote for Guy A or Guy B, you can pick zero or pick not-zero; and, even though you don’t have to vote, you can still pick between zero and not-zero.